The headlines impacting mortgage rates

Name: The headlines impacting mortgage rates
Uploaded: 2026-11-13T10:00:17+00:00
Duration: 22 min 16 s
Channel: HousingWire

00:11Welcome, everyone. I'm joined today by lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about the

00:15latest political headlines impacting mortgage rates, as well as existing home sales and

00:20foreclosure data. Before we dive in, here are the top five trending articles on HousingWire.com.

00:25First, we have Take Care of America's Veterans Act advances with VA mortgage fee hike, followed by

00:33why the 2026 fake foreclosure crisis never happened. Then we have Compass bars employees

00:39from realtor leadership roles, and Better 2.0 plan hits reported $34.1 million in cost savings.

00:46Finally, we have existing home sales hit a new low as rates stay high. Okay, we're ready to dive in.

00:53Logan, welcome back to the podcast. Boy, that is a lot to take in in the last 24 hours. Of

00:59course,

01:00I am in Birmingham, Alabama. So we go from South Carolina to California to Alabama back to Cal.

01:07You know what? UCLA and Alabama being ranked in the top for football, college football. Let me tell you,

01:13I have no recollection in my life when that's ever been the case. So I'm going to go find a

01:19bar and

01:20talk some trash, you know, to some Alabama fans. Go Tide. You are a happy camper. Okay, we have some,

01:28it has been a crazy morning. I feel like we say that every day, but really, but really, okay? So

01:32let's start off. What's impacting rates? Let's start off with the NVIDIA news.

01:37Well, you know, it's, this is ruining my, you know, I've got three holidays to get mortgage rates

01:43under 7%. And what's happened in the last 48 hours is, is made that a little bit difficult for

01:50Thanksgiving. But of course, we're going to first start off with, we talk about core weave stock,

01:56you know, of course, NVIDIA has this big headline because the CEO has been fired, but core weave stock

02:02is the one that created all the drama and it beat its earnings. It said things are, are still okay

02:09enough. We're still going to continue with everything. And that stock price went up 25%

02:15in one day. And whenever you're oversold and your shorts have to cover, you know, that that's,

02:21that's the thing. But what they said kept the story intact. So because I thought what core weave said,

02:27what happened around NVIDIA isn't that big of a news. So the CEO left, but, you know,

02:35the company is still going to be the company. Wherever moratoriums and everything goes,

02:42you know, in the future, that's still a way. But I thought core weave stock price rebounding and

02:50NVIDIA not really creating a tremendous negative reaction in the markets was, was interesting

02:58because we always run off that core weave 10-year yield trade because the Federal Reserve has made AI,

03:04you know, you know, their inflation talking point lately.

03:09You know, I wonder if we're saying it right in NVIDIA versus in NVIDIA. I don't know,

03:13whatever. We all know what we're talking about. It starts with an N. I think that my question there is,

03:18of course, this is a short-term thing for, for that company NVIDIA, but like it, I mean,

03:24it could have long-term effects on the supply chain on, on different things. So from your perspective,

03:31do you think there's going to be a long, a longer-term effect of, you know, of course he's,

03:34he's resigned, you know, we'll get over this part of it, but what does it mean long-term?

03:39No, I, I think this, this, the story is intact, but the story again, it bled.

03:46Okay. And if you can bleed, you know, we can kill it. And Lord have mercy, Congress. Talk about a

03:55group

03:55of people, the AI CEOs are one of the hated, and boy, when's Elizabeth Warren and them get him in

04:03front of Congress and then all the other CEOs are, are we next? So definitely there is a sea of

04:11change

04:12around AI. But for now, you know, if CoreWeb came out and said, oh my God, we can't issue any

04:19debt or

04:20whatever, you know, I think it would have been a different story, but CoreWeb's earnings were good

04:25enough. And, you know, that led to some of the selling, one of the variables in the selling in

04:33the bond market. Okay. So that's just one of the crazy headlines we have. And, and two of the other

04:39ones are, all three of these are the things that you talked about, like, here's the pathway to under

04:447% rate. So let's talk about, um, you want to do tariffs first or you don't want to do

04:48the Iran

04:49conflict? They're both the same thing. I'll go, homie, Mr. President, y'all just lost the elections.

04:55What do you do right away? The caravans, we're going to do a hundred percent tariffs on Mexico.

05:01Oh, and I'm like, you know, the whole thing is like, it's interesting because the oil markets

05:07didn't really make a big move off of the, you know, we're not, you know, the president talked

05:12about, we, we don't need to deal with Iran. And he brought J.D. Vance back. And, you know, I

05:17don't

05:17know if that would have been a deal anyway, but I mean, I'm, I'm, I'm assuming internally the,

05:24the white house gets information that all of us don't get. And, you know, it might be the same. Hey,

05:29listen, we're just going to wait until January 3rd. Go ahead, do whatever you want. When January

05:343rd comes Chuck Schumer is going to put legislative in and, you know, uh, uh, uh, for the Iran

05:41world, for the conflict, legislative to try to end the conflict. And now what, uh, Iran's probably

05:48game plan is try to create as enough, you know, drama in the oil markets as possible until that

05:54happens. Cause we saw what everybody thought. Um, so it'll be, it'll be interesting over the

06:01next six weeks and see how the president wants to play this. But then, you know, the, we said

06:05the trade war cannot get worse and it would be very beneficial for rates, right? If you, if you're

06:13part of this trade war team and you know, uh, you obviously have realized it impacts the housing

06:20sector and the federal reserve. So it probably doesn't matter much to you. You said that these

06:25are the consequences of, of attempting a trade war, but you can't run around and say, Hey,

06:32a hundred percent tariffs, you know, uh, and stuff. So I understand this is president Trump's thing.

06:39I mean, he, he just loves tariffs. He can't do bully ball on other countries without him.

06:44You know, it's just, it's, this doesn't work. So he needs something to play bully ball to go on TV

06:50or tweet something out or message something on true social. So, um, oil markets didn't really

06:57bite, but again, you can see what happened. The 10 year yield wasn't doing much this morning. It's

07:03on Thursday morning. And then all of a sudden, boom, it went vertical. And I go, what did homie say?

07:10I go, all right, there we go. You know, there's one thing with the, with the, with the, with the

07:16trade war, but the Iran thing and yields not only popped up, they really didn't make any kind of

07:21reversal and they're heading higher. And by the time this report or this podcast comes out, it's

07:27Friday the 13th and we have PPI inflation. So, Oh my man, this was a, this was a, a, a

07:34inflation week

07:35to, uh, forget, but, uh, the, the variables that we talked about for the last, uh, three to four

07:43weeks, all of the, or some of those even recently, all changed to the negative side for rates core.

07:50We've stock price earnings were fine. Trump talked about trade war 2.0 getting worse and no deal with,

07:56uh, uh, Iran, those things together. Again, uh, you need those three things to, to get better,

08:04to get the, that next leg, uh, lawyer and lower. And you really, if you're talking about sub 7%

08:08rates, you need the 10 year yield below 4.85% and mortgage spreads to improve. And you can easily

08:14get there. That's, that's not a problem, but, uh, definitely last time I checked was like 5, 11,

08:195, 12 on the 10 year. And here comes PPI inflation on Friday the 13th. Oh man, we're going to

08:26end this

08:26week off with a, uh, uh, uh, Friday the 13th inflation report thing. That doesn't seem like

08:32it bodes well for us. And it's just such a disappointment for people in the industry where,

08:36and for me where I'm like, okay, we can see, we can see the path towards 7%. But I agree

08:41with you.

08:42I don't know that Trump is going to give up the tariffs when he doesn't have a lot of other

08:45things

08:45to do, uh, levers to pull. I just think he likes them. He likes them. And just a note to,

08:51uh, uh,

08:52I know a bond trader listening when we talked about 5, 10, 5, 15 might be the retest. Here we

08:57are. And you're going to test this, uh, tomorrow with, uh, um, with an inflation report, but with

09:04tariffs, man, he just loves them. And how can you, you can't do bully ball with that, with anyone.

09:08What are you, what are you going to say? So, um, again, we'll sit, we'll see how the next week

09:15plays out, but, uh, definitely this week was a negative for rates and definitely we understand why,

09:20right. We always want to create the variables on why something goes up on yields and when something

09:24goes down, but we can clearly see what the cause and effect, uh, uh, of it, you know, the CPI

09:30inflation being hotter. Yes. You, you, you could live with that. That's something you can't control

09:35now, but going today and tomorrow, there are two things you can control the trade war and the

09:42conflict. So, um, either Trump figures out a way to do it himself or Congress is going to do it

09:48for

09:48him and the Iranians know this. So this is why you can't, you can't, if you roll the dice in

09:55the

09:55Middle East, this is what you could get yourself trapped into, uh, and we'll take it from there.

10:01So unfortunately we were thinking, okay, after the midterms, we might could see something and now

10:05it feels like maybe, maybe it'll turn every, it turns every day, but it feels like after January

10:11is when we might see. Well, we'll see. We'll see. I mean, you know, Trump used to have

10:18more clever people working around him that understood, but now he's got a, he's got a lot

10:24of just loyalist people. And I would probably say not the most clever out there, but the Steve

10:30Mnuchins and the Coens and, and others kind of understood how that, uh, the whole process works.

10:37So, um, time, right? Trump's got a clock now and that clock changes on January 3rd. The Iranians

10:48know it. He knows it. Congress knows it. It's how you ride this going into that. Cause if you make

10:53things worse for you, you're just, you're just handing the Dems more fuel to the fire, man. Now

10:58you got 20, 28, uh, white house race, uh, going to be talked about. So, um, we'll see again every

11:06day there, there's, there's no, no boring days, man. Uh, I mean, we, we all, we all do this together

11:13and, you know, social media has, uh, uh, created that Avenue and we'll, we'll, uh, see what happens

11:18on the next day. Well, let's talk about some of the downstream effects of that. Let's talk about

11:24existing home sales, which we got, uh, you know, what the lowest number of existing home sales ever

11:30talk us through that. It's not ever. And I think a lot of people, a lot of people have made

11:35the

11:36mistake of looking at the NAR is pending home sales data and say that that's the lowest home sales ever

11:41in history. And that's, that's not true. Cause the pending NAR is pending home sales data goes to

11:461999 and doesn't go past that. So the existing home sales market actually went from 2 million to 4

11:52million to 2 million in the late seventies and early eighties, but it was a monthly 16 month low and

11:58not, not shocking, right. You know, everyone's, you know, anyone who reads the tracker, our weekly

12:03pending home sales data was a noticeably declining when rates shot up to 760 from 7%. But as we talked

12:11about in the last podcast, this report is somewhat old now, uh, because the last few weeks, um, our

12:17weekly pending home sales data just stabilized, uh, purchase application data came out 8%

12:22positive week to week. Now we've had a lot of positive forward looking data since late 2022

12:30without any positive year over year data in purchase application data. It's, it's funky that way.

12:35This is why one of the things I'd like to highlight is the weekly datas are more prolific in this

12:40kind

12:40of environment. So the existing home sales report came, it went with the previous pending home sales

12:45and went with our weekly pending home sales, but the data that we're tracking just stabilized

12:50recently. So I know it sounds like a big percentage week to week increase, uh, uh, 8%, but just remember

12:57the, the, the mortgage banking associations, uh, purchase application index can be very wild,

13:03uh, week to week, especially with year to year. So just kind of take it as more of a stabilization

13:08factor. Now, of course, rates went up a quarter and, you know, the rate of change really impacts some

13:13of these things, but, uh, we'll see how this goes, uh, for the rest of the year, uh, in late

13:182023,

13:19when mortgage rates were at 8% and went all the way down to 6.65, all the way to

13:23two days before,

13:25uh, uh, uh, Christmas, uh, we had about eight weeks of positive data. It wasn't the 12 weeks I look

13:32for,

13:32but it was good enough to create a couple hundred thousand home sales. So it's early in this, uh,

13:38environment, but now rates picked up a little bit. So we'll see how that impacts the tracker this weekend.

13:44Love that. Okay. Um, you wrote an article, uh, why the 2026 foreclosure crisis didn't happen or

13:51never happened or whatever. Uh, and you were looking at the latest New York fed, uh, foreclosure

13:56data. Tell us what you saw there. Well, I mean, it's, I think what happened is

14:04a lot of people go, who's the, who, like, who are these crazy people talking about foreclosure crisis?

14:09Right. And of course the anti-central bank people are always going to be crazy. That's

14:13just, they're, they're born after 1913. This is a doom porn clan. That's what we always said.

14:19They're going to go to death like this. They're never going to change. But one of the things that

14:23I saw in the last 12 months is that the story of the FHA moratorium, like going away in October

14:32and here comes here, this is it. This is now the surge of new listings. And, and to me, it's

14:40like,

14:40we have a lot of people who are just not trained as analysts talk a lot. And when I went

14:47to events

14:47and people brought this up and I'm like, where are you getting this from? And then this, this

14:52thing lasted the whole year. So this was October, 2025, right. And it's like, this thing was lasting

14:59and people were creating, like some of y'all on X should not like create a chart and tweet me

15:05with

15:05it. Lord have mercy. My God, people were talking about escape velocity on the credit FH, uh, uh,

15:12on New York fed data. I was like, that's not how it works. They didn't even do that during the

15:16crisis.

15:17What are you talking about? So we have a lot of men in this country who are not economic people

15:24and

15:24they, they show it by the more they talk. In any case, actually one of the biggest, uh, live debates

15:29I had at an event was a lot of people are saying, no, the foreclosure crisis is happening now. It's

15:33like, homie, the new listings data is not even back to normal. What are you talking about? And then

15:37when I showed them the charts, all the charts in that article, right. Connect the dots, be the

15:42detective, not the troll, right. When you do it that way, they're like, Oh, okay. You know, the New York

15:50fed credit data is an early indicator because it's an early indicator. It's moved slowly, right? It's a,

15:58I mean, foreclosures are like a minimum, minimum eight to nine, 19 month process, right? So by the

16:04time it gets to the credit stage and the new listing stage, it took years, it took 2005, six,

16:10seven, eight, then the job loss recession. And then all these new listings, you're talking about a six,

16:14seven year and we're not even back to pre COVID levels. I'm like, how dumb can you people be a

16:21lot

16:22for a very long time? So this one was one of the ones where, because it's, it's Q3,

16:28and they do this quarterly. If this one didn't show an acceleration, I think, I think even if you

16:34were not that bright of a person, you have to realize there are some people who are just lying

16:38to you, right? So the best antidote fear is run the data and you connect the dots to them. It's

16:44I gave you the craziest housing bubble crash credit burst period in history. And I always outline this

16:52by saying, guys, we've had 13 recessions post-World War II, an average unemployment rate of 7.8. We've

16:58only had one foreclosure crisis that broke out of the data. It's never here. I've been doing this

17:0516 years, right? You're, you're dancing with a ghost. So that article, for those who read it,

17:10could see those charts, but we're connecting them. And now it just didn't, it didn't even go in there.

17:15The quarter that was supposed to be the big surge, nothing, not even at, not even at the recent

17:23multi-year high and not even back to 2019 level. So hopefully this was the final nail in the coffin,

17:32but gave it 12 months. It's November, right? This whole thing was supposed to start in October of

17:382025. And there's a difference between people who are trained to talk about this and how it works.

17:44This is why you backtest things versus just garbage out there.

17:50I would encourage anyone listening, go look at that article. It is really great. It has all the

17:54charts, very clear what's happening there. And I love that you just laid it out so easily for people

18:01to see. Yeah. I mean, it's, it's, it's, it's these low base effect percentages. I remember that one

18:07conference was like four years ago, four or five years ago, we did a conference. I think it was U

18:12.S.

18:12Bank and some podcaster said like home foreclosures are up 700%. Home prices are about to crash. It's

18:20like 2023 or 20, you know, 20, 2022. That's like, I mean, that's just not how it works. These homes

18:28have to come onto the market to be a part of the sale process. They're not even, they're like in

18:32this infancy stage of, of, of, of a delinquency stage. That's not how it works. So again, we want

18:38to teach this because I feel like if you educate a society, like how do you, how do you take

18:43on

18:43demagogues, right? And people who burn books instead of reading them, right? You, you teach them how to

18:49read and read, know, understand data, but you connect the dots with it. And once you connect the dots,

18:53it's like, okay, I get it. I need to worry about this and this, this happening. There you go. When

18:58that

18:58happens, we can go there, but that wasn't it, you know? So it's just, I just, I just think like

19:04you

19:04got one life to live in America. You won Willy Wonka's golden chocolate ticket, man. And y'all

19:09waste your life on this stuff out here. And this is why we challenge every American man, woman,

19:15Russian, Chinese, Iranians, live debates, get your forecast, get your models and string you out

19:19for the next 10 years. But my job is still to educate. And that's what that article was,

19:25was to educate. Cause here we are, it's November now, never happened, but why, why is the most important?

19:30Why is the most important? So you just wrapped up an event. I know you're back in Alabama for a

19:35thing, but you were in South Carolina. You met a ton, a ton of our fans. Um, you were sitting

19:40at a

19:41table with them and you led the witness. You, you went around and said, and you said, yeah, Sarah,

19:46all these people you did on Instagram, you're like all these, all of our fans say that you bossed me

19:50around too much. You just need to let me go and all this. But what you didn't do, what you

19:54did not do

19:55is record when you were playing what you call miniature golf with, with these guys. And what

20:00did they say to you? They're like, Logan, you're wrong. It's putt, putt. It's putt, putt. Thank

20:05you. It's putt, putt. I know. I, you know what? I, I, I, I didn't do bad. I haven't miniature

20:10golf,

20:11you know, for a long time really. And I, I, I, I, I did okay. So, um, uh, yeah, that

20:17was,

20:18let's see, did you hit the wind windmill? I love, no, no, it was, it was, there, there was no

20:23funky, like, you know, uh, windmills or houses or anything like that, but, uh, uh, it was the

20:28Atlantic Bay sales summit, which was a lot of fun. It's always, it's always fun meeting our fans,

20:32you know, and, and, you know, I was, I was still debating, how do I, can I get to New

20:36York? Cause

20:37I see all these awards and it's in New York times square. There's all these videos of our signals

20:42awards and, you know, being the best, uh, daily podcast in America, Sarah, we did this.

20:48We did. I know. I think today we're ranked number 10 in the nation, uh, uh, for a small

20:55little shop like this, man, boy, that's teamwork. See that teamwork. You yell at me, I take it

21:03and the people end up loving me and hating you for it. Look what happens. That's, that's

21:08the dynamic. I met a lot of incredible women at the conference I was at, which was the Alice

21:12conference for executive women's summit, where I met a lot of our fans. And, uh, one of them

21:16said, uh, oh, are you, are, is Logan missing you? Are you missing Logan? Cause, uh, you

21:21know, we're on opposite sides. I was like, no, we're used to this. You know, he's, he's

21:24doing it. Logan's never missing the finger waving that Sarah said. I don't know why I

21:29know. I don't realize I'm doing this. I don't realize I'm doing this. It's true though.

21:33It just happens. And I have no idea. It's like involuntary. So this is probably for Rebecca

21:39to hear, but, uh, there was a request that you get all the, uh, uh, bloopers and, and

21:44deleted, uh, uh, videos. And we just make one podcast of all the stuff that Sarah

21:49goes, no, you can't say that. No, stop it. Logan, stop it. No, no, no, no, no. Come

21:54on.

21:56You know, no, it would be good. Also, you say some pretty funny things when we're off

22:00camera. So, uh, no one would be surprised at that. Logan, thank you so much. We will talk

22:05again soon.

22:06Pleasure.

22:09Pleasure.

The headlines impacting mortgage rates

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