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A panel reviews the political and electoral effects in Uttar Pradesh after the launch of the Samajik Parivartan Morcha by AIMIM and Azad Samaj Party, analysing voter shifts and alliance dynamics.
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00:00So what does this new political equation mean? Let's cut across to our panelists this evening.
00:04Joining me, Ashutosh, author, political analyst, Varis Patan, spokesperson, AIMIM, Rajwath Setri,
00:10political analyst, Juhi Singh, spokesperson, Samajwadi Party, Tuhin Sinha, BJP, national spokesperson.
00:16Let's begin with a party which stands to technically lose the most, Samajwadi Party.
00:23And Juhi Singh, what does this new equation mean for the Samajwadi Party?
00:30For us, it means nothing.
00:32As you said, technically people are perceiving that we stand to lose.
00:36But if this alliance thinks that they can counter the BJP and they're there to defeat the BJP,
00:43they can hold the BJP accountable for whatever misdeeds, misrules, misinformation the BJP has spread,
00:50it's been 10 years in UP, then it's fine with us.
00:53Because they have to decide what their strategy is, how they are going to work,
00:58what is their cease-sharing formula, instead of drawing a report card for the Samajwadi Party,
01:03which I think many of their members do as per convenience.
01:08I think it's high cut that they drew up accountability report card for the BJP,
01:14talk about the issues, whether it's unemployment, whether it's farmers' distress,
01:19it's women's security, the Samajwadi Party is still working on its own.
01:24You're saying nothing to lose, despite the fact that AIMIM just about a month ago in an open letter
01:29had said, let's form an alliance in Uttar Pradesh, which you had rebuffed.
01:33So you are saying you don't need them?
01:36I don't think it worked out.
01:38I mean, I don't know what the proposal came.
01:40We are working on our boot levels, on our SIR list, which are totally faulty.
01:46The Chief Minister of UP himself is saying that 1.30 people are missing from the voters list.
01:52That's a huge number and that has to be corrected.
01:56All right, Tuhin Sina, some would suggest good news coming in for the BJP,
02:04another team B-C of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh this time.
02:10Well, good evening, Preeti.
02:11Good evening, everybody.
02:13This new alliance is another reason why BJP is headed towards a massive, massive win.
02:19But no, they are not our B team.
02:22They are not our C team.
02:24Point is that Asad Uddin, as they say in Hindi, is Begani Shadi Mein Abdullah Diwana.
02:30He's the same, you know, Begani Shadi Mein Abdullah Diwana everywhere.
02:34So anybody he aligns with, anybody who chooses to align with him must be in a position of desperation.
02:41Otherwise, you know, nobody gives him any importance anywhere.
02:48But equally, if you look at this alliance, the Muslim votes might gravitate towards AIMIM today because, you know, Akhilesh
02:57Yadav seems to be taking the community for granted.
03:00One day he says he will go to Ayodhya, the other day he says he will go to Kashi, the
03:05third day he says he will go to some other temple.
03:07So he has to be taking the Muslim community for granted, leading to some amount of confusion, which the AIMIM
03:13wants to encash on.
03:15But the Dalit vote will walk away from Mr. Rawan once Mr. Rawan decides to go ahead with AIMIM.
03:23Because the Dalits per se align, don't, you know, don't identify with this rather unnatural alliance.
03:32And that is where the other side will stand to lose both ways.
03:37You know, the Muslim vote goes to, it's divided, they don't get the Dalit vote.
03:41So I think we are headed towards a massive, massive win.
03:44Very similar to…
03:45Okay, Varus Pathan, allow me to bring you in.
03:47Varus Pathan, you've managed to play the spoiler in a state like Bihar and even in a state…
03:54Okay, do we have Varus Pathan?
03:58Okay, we don't seem to have Varus Pathan.
04:00We're going to try and connect to Varus Pathan.
04:01Let me bring in till then Ashutosh as well as Rajat Sethi into the mix.
04:06Ashutosh, what do you make of this?
04:07Because the AIMIM, Asaduddin Ovesi, has played a spoiler in Bihar, in Bengal,
04:13but history stands testimony he hasn't been able to make inroads in the state of Uttar Pradesh.
04:18It's not the first election, he's fighting there.
04:20On the other hand, you have Chandrasekhar Azad, who did fairly well.
04:24He won his seat of Nagina in general elections 24.
04:28Having said that, his alliance with another, you know, party, the JJP in Haryana,
04:33failed abysmally in Haryana elections.
04:38See, Priti, this is all about Dalit votes in Uttar Pradesh.
04:41This is not all about the Muslim votes.
04:43So, I'm not surprised that Ovesi has aligned with Chandrasekhar
04:46and projected him as the chief ministerial candidate.
04:50And everybody knows that till very recently,
04:55the UP election has been triangular, other four-angular election kind of a thing,
04:58but now it has been turned into a bipolar election.
05:04And Mayavati's vote share has been shrinking rapidly,
05:08especially in 2024 parliament election, where she was reduced to 9.36% vote share
05:13and a drop of almost more than 10% vote share.
05:16So, but where this 10% vote share or where the Dalit voter is going will decide the election in
05:23this election.
05:23Because if you look at the figures of 2024 parliament election,
05:28almost 56 to 57% of the non-JATO voter, which is substantial in UP,
05:35has gone to the India Ghatbandhan and slightly, or around 20-20% has gone to the India Ghatbandhan.
05:43Whereas the JATO voter, which has been basically, have been very committed to the Mayavati personally,
05:50there is also a drift there.
05:5225% goes to the BJP and 25% goes to the Samajwadi party.
05:56Now, it is this 20% of the Dalit voters which is going to swing election either in favor of
06:02the Samajwadi party or in favor of the BJP.
06:04Most probably, if you take 2024 election as a benchmark, the possibility is that this might go to the India
06:11Ghatbandhan.
06:11So, this entire exercise is to stop that drift from BSP to Samajwadi party in the Congress Ghatbandhan.
06:19And that's what I see this election.
06:21And OSCE is just a spoiler, as he always thinks he is.
06:27His game worked in Bihar, but I don't think he's any threat in Bihar.
06:31But it hasn't ever worked in Uttar Pradesh.
06:33Till now, it hasn't worked in Uttar Pradesh.
06:36It worked in Bihar, it also, I would think, worked in Bengal as well in pockets.
06:40It did fairly well, as a spoiler.
06:42Okay, I want to bring in, do we have Mr. Waris Pathan in this conversation?
06:46Do we have Mr. Waris Pathan?
06:49Okay, we do have.
06:50Mr. Pathan, you're back with us.
06:52Some would want to understand, what is the AIMM's thinking behind aligning with Chandrasekhar Azad,
07:01especially because your party hasn't done quite well in Uttar Pradesh.
07:05You've aligned with Chandrasekhar Azad.
07:07There is a clear amount of Bonhomi with your leader as well, as Jayan Chaudhuri, who's RLD as well.
07:13So, one doesn't quite understand where the AIMM stands this election.
07:19Well, ma'am, today is a very historic day in the politics of Uttar Pradesh, where in our party,
07:24M.J. Sethyad al-Muslimin and M.P. Chandrasekhar Azad's party, the Azad Samaj party,
07:30today form an alliance and call it Samajik Parivartan Murcha.
07:35Now, see, our intention and the motive was to ensure that the BJP is defeated and to ensure that they
07:41don't form the government the third time.
07:44We had requested earlier to them to come along with us, form an alliance, let us defeat the BJP.
07:49But the so-called secular parties, they did not do anything, they just kept their mouth shut.
07:53And so, today we have formed an alliance and I am sure and I am confident that many of them
07:58will be having sleepless nights from today.
08:02Because since so many years, they have been taking the votes of the Muslims, Dalits and the minorities.
08:06And what did they do for betterment of the political import or for anything that…
08:10But Mr. Padhan, your party has never worked in UP.
08:12Things have never really gone in your favor in the state of Uttar Pradesh.
08:16False.
08:16These are totally false and baseless allegations which are…
08:20No, sir, I am only looking at past track record.
08:22How is it false?
08:23No, no, what is the Congress' past track record?
08:26And what did the Samaj party…
08:27Sir, better than yours.
08:28Better than yours in Uttar Pradesh.
08:29What is the Samajiki party's track record?
08:31They lost almost all the elections since the four times.
08:34But sir, you haven't been able to win a single seat.
08:39This was the same thing which was being told to us during the Bihar election as well.
08:43And we won five seats in Bihar.
08:45Sir, you have always done…
08:46No, no, no, no, no.
08:47One second, sir.
08:48To put this in perspective, you have always done well in the state of Bihar.
08:51You've always had a bit of a vote share and resonance and presence.
08:55The AIMMM in the last election in UP was less than 1% vote, sir.
09:00Less than 1% vote and you could not convert even one seat.
09:04But this time, you see, this time, you see, we will be winning.
09:07Many of our candidates will win.
09:08They will go to the ULT assembly and they will raise their voice for the Dalits, for the Muslims,
09:15for the people who have been taken just for granted by the so-called secular parties.
09:20And see, what I have been saying is since the beginning is very true.
09:24On one side, we have got the BJP.
09:26On the other side, we have got the Samajwadi and the Congress, the so-called secular parties.
09:30They are two sides of the same coin.
09:32They have been playing the BJP.
09:33Then why are you inviting the Samajwadi party and the Congress to come and join you?
09:38The BJP, the BJP is playing hard in the politics.
09:43The Samajwadi and the secular parties, they were soft in the politics.
09:47We know they are the enemies of Muslims.
09:50Here also, what we are seeing, Akhilesh now going to Ayodhya.
09:53Okay.
09:53But, sir, I don't understand.
09:55I want to bring in Rajat Sethi because your argument, I've come back to you, sir.
09:57Ten seconds are interrupted, madam.
09:59Allow me ten seconds.
10:00Please.
10:01Of course.
10:03I would like to ask a simple question to the Samajwadi party spokesmen,
10:07especially to their Muslim members and the MPs.
10:10What is their take and what is their say on Akhilesh Yadob visiting Ayodhya?
10:15They won't say.
10:16They are not saying.
10:17What have they got to say now?
10:19See, that is why we say you took the blame of...
10:22But, sir, but how do you say that?
10:25Everything from the particular of the community.
10:28And so we have found an alliance.
10:30And our alliance is...
10:31But, sir, allow...
10:32Okay, I've understood your point.
10:33I've understood.
10:34Sir, I understand your point.
10:36But allow me to ask you because at one end you are saying
10:39that Samajwadi party is anti-Muslim.
10:42On the other hand, from stage you have given an invitation to the Samajwadi party
10:45to join forces with you.
10:47How do the two add up?
10:49This was the same thing we told them during the Bihar reflections also
10:53because they'll...
10:54Okay.
10:54That because we contest elections, they lose elections
10:57and all blah, blah, blah, they want to...
10:59Sir, are you okay to join hands with the Samajwadi party
11:03who you say is anti-Muslim
11:04and the Congress who you call
11:06is the other side of the same coin of the BJP?
11:11Madam, our intention, aim
11:13is to ensure that the BJP does not form the government
11:17for the third time.
11:18We want to defeat the BJP.
11:20That is why we told them...
11:23Okay, you've made your point, sir.
11:24Fair point, sir.
11:25So it doesn't matter, you will even join hands with an anti-Muslim party
11:30and a BJP team B to defeat the BJP.
11:33Our alliance has today declared Mr. Chandrasekhar Azad
11:37as the chief minister candidate of Uttar Pradesh.
11:39I hear you, sir.
11:41And we are sure...
11:42I hear you, I hear you.
11:42Allow me to bring in Rajat Sethi, sir.
11:44Allow me to open up the panel.
11:46Okay.
11:47Allow me to bring in Rajat Sethi into this.
11:48Rajat, as a political analyst,
11:51what do you make of what's just happened?
11:55So, Preeti ji, I think there's no harm in any party starting with zero.
12:01MIM is almost at zero, and so is the Azad Samaj party also.
12:07Both of them have less than one lakh votes, roughly.
12:10Again, that does not go against them.
12:13We've also seen that what happens to this narrative of B team, C team,
12:17which has been labelled on to AIMIM right from West Bengal election to Bihar elections.
12:23That narrative, RJD and the Congress Party and the TMC kept on pushing
12:28and trying to push AIMIM against the wall on this basic standpoint.
12:33But counter to that, what MIM and what Mr. Ovesi has been consistently saying is that,
12:39see, what happens to these MPs and MLAs that you elect on the ticket of Congress Party
12:44or you elect on the ticket of TMC?
12:46The moment they lose elections or they lose power,
12:49they will switch towards elected MPs and MLAs will switch over and go and join the BJP.
12:53One of the biggest narrative of Mr. Ovesi has been Congress Party in the state of Bihar.
12:58Currently, there are six MLAs.
13:00And out of six, five were at the verge of joining the BJP.
13:03The talks were finished and everything, it was all in public domain.
13:06So, today, Ovesi can stand up and say that, see, even if you elect these people,
13:10none of these people are going to fight for your interests
13:12and they'll cross-party and go and join the BJP.
13:15So, therefore, this chorus of calling them a C-team, etc., of the BJP,
13:21only has so much of shelf life.
13:24After that, the Muslims will start looking at what is in it for them
13:28when they look at Samajwadi Party or Congress Party.
13:30Also, what happens is through this third front, which has been created,
13:34they're calling it the first front, but I don't, I mean,
13:37even if they stand relevant in this entire election, that would be a good win for them.
13:41But I think one thing what it does is, it puts pressure on Congress Party.
13:45You interrupted me every second.
13:48Sorry, sir?
13:51Okay.
13:52Sir, allow Rajat C.T. to finish, I'll come back to you.
13:54Mr. C.T., make your point.
13:56So, Preeti ji, what it does is, it puts pressure on Congress Party also,
13:59because now Congress Party doesn't have the elbow room to go out and negotiate with the Samajwadi Party
14:05with the zeal that they have been showing so far.
14:08They would want to come out and try and staple together with the Samajwadi Party alliance,
14:13so much so that the vote shift does not get further splintered into smaller groups.
14:18Clearly, Congress has had a very bad show in the previous election
14:21when they were independent of Samajwadi Party.
14:24So, looking at the bigger picture, the consolidation of this third front,
14:28and if they're able to add smaller parties into their fold,
14:31maybe they will be able to get 3%, 4%, 5%.
14:33They might not be able to win a single seat, but they can disturb the apple cart,
14:38which is sort of balancing it between the Congress and Samajwadi Party on one side
14:44and the BJP on the other side.
14:46Ashutosh, I know you want to come in, and I'm going to go around again once to everyone,
14:50and I want to bring in Juhi Singh into this conversation from the Samajwadi Party.
14:53And Juhi Singh, the fact is, sometimes, when it comes down to the micro-detailing,
14:58if you have an alliance of the AIMIM and the Azad Samajwadi Party, Chandrasekhar Azad,
15:06it will and could be a factor, especially, where West UP is concerned.
15:11You might speak of pockets, but it very well could play as a huge factor there.
15:15You have Chandrasekhar Azad, who has a fair amount of influence in the area,
15:19and you know that better, ma'am.
15:22And if there is a smaller alliances and other smaller parties,
15:25which are part of the NDA, where East UP is concerned,
15:28there's also now talks of smaller outfits coming up, where Bundelkhand is concerned.
15:33All of them taking away percentages of your vote bank.
15:39Could really harm you in the long run.
15:42Preeti, I think we were prepared for that.
15:44I have been hearing the entire conversation.
15:46In the entire conversation of Varis Pathanbhai,
15:49the only thing I could hear was what the Congress has done wrong,
15:52what the SP has done wrong,
15:53and how many elections we have lost.
15:57There is no mention of issues.
15:59And let's say I might not be a Muslim,
16:02but I do not think that they understand the Muslims of UP.
16:06What is the dichotomy of anybody going to Ramadir
16:09and the presumption of Varis Pathanbhai,
16:11that every Muslim would be offended because somebody visits the Ramadir?
16:16I mean, it's ridiculous.
16:18Secondly, they can go on their calculations.
16:20We are working on the ground and ask for the Dalit vote.
16:25Reservation is being taken away by the BJP,
16:27whether it is in government jobs,
16:30whether it is in the appointments of assistant professors,
16:33whether it is in the 68,000 Bharti,
16:37which we have seen.
16:38Nobody has done anything to rectify it.
16:40So, these are the issues and also the issues of rising fees,
16:44people being suspended from universities,
16:47not allowing to raise their voices.
16:49So, yeah, they can talk about...
16:51The friendship is there with the BJP and it is very, very apparent.
16:55What did he or anybody have to say about the BJP?
17:00It's all right.
17:01You know, but that was exactly what was said in 2022 of the BSP.
17:06Yes, the BSP shrunk,
17:09but it still managed to take a sizable vote percentage, ma'am.
17:12And that mattered in the long run for you.
17:14I'll come back to you.
17:15Priti, why do you presume that they took away our vote percentage?
17:18I mean, maybe the BJP could have gone higher.
17:20It might have been there.
17:21Okay, it could have been.
17:22And a lot of the Alips are with us and the Muslims do.
17:25So, I mean, we are working with them and we have a committed work.
17:28All right, let me...
17:30Allow me to bring in...
17:31We don't get disturbed by B-teams and C-teams.
17:33Okay, final comments.
17:34And if I have time, I'll come back again.
17:36But Tuhin Sina, final comments, sir, on this new alliance.
17:41Opposition parties are clearly feeling the heat
17:43and that is when they, you know, go for desperate, unnatural alliances.
17:47So, clearly they are in bad shape.
17:49And when Varish Pathan says that, you know,
17:51we will ensure that the BJP gets defeated,
17:54let me just tell them that, you know,
17:55no matter what all alliances they work out,
17:58they are incapable of beating it.
18:00But having said that, today, I think, you know,
18:02there is no difference between the Congress and the AIMIM.
18:06The AIMIM, you know, in a big state like Bihar,
18:10the AIMIM won five seats.
18:12The Congress won six seats.
18:13You know, so in the municipal corporation elections
18:17of Maharashtra earlier this year,
18:19which included Mumbai in, you know,
18:21in at least three places, in at least three cities,
18:25AIMIM actually did better than Congress Party.
18:28So, today there is not much difference
18:30between the Congress Party and AIMIM.
18:33And, you know, if Khilesh Yadav had been a little more wise,
18:37maybe he would have dumped Congress Party
18:39and, you know, thought of an alliance with AIMIM.
18:41AIMIM, that's the hard reality, which I'm telling you.
18:44All right.
18:45Okay, let's get in final comments in.
18:46If we have Mr. Varus Pathan, but if we don't,
18:48Ashutosh has been trying to make a point for a while.
18:50Go ahead, sir.
18:51Final comments.
18:52See, Preeti, I think we are unnecessarily giving
18:54too much importance to this OSE party.
18:57You know, they draw their resistance from Hyderabad,
19:00from Telangana.
19:01You know, in 2023, how many seats they contested?
19:03Only nine.
19:04Only nine.
19:05And what was the percentage of what they got?
19:072.22.
19:08In 2019 parliamentary elections,
19:13they got how many percentage of what?
19:152.78.
19:17And in 2024, 3.01.
19:19A political party which does not contest
19:22even all the seats in Telangana,
19:25now is arrogantly saying that they are going to defeat
19:30the BJP and the Samadhaj Badi party together in Uttar Pradesh.
19:33So now the issue is why they have entered into the race.
19:37They have entered into the race
19:39because they will get disproportionate projection
19:42in the TV channels.
19:44They will speak something,
19:46some provocative things,
19:47and that will help BJP polarize elections.
19:50That is their role.
19:52And that is why, despite,
19:53our political party is just getting 2% to 3% note,
19:56even in Telangana,
19:57you will see him in all the TV channels.
20:00There will be a permanent fixture in all the TV channels.
20:03Every time.
20:04And they will be asked questions.
20:07And the questions which they will answer
20:11will help polarize the politics across.
20:15So that is why they have entered into the race.
20:20And unfortunately or fortunately,
20:22Chandrasekhar has fallen into the trap with him.
20:25But, you know,
20:27Ashutosh, and I'll come back,
20:28because, you know,
20:29you are saying fortunately,
20:30unfortunately,
20:31Chandrasekhar has fallen in the trap with him.
20:33But Chandrasekhar did ally similarly,
20:35maybe not with AIMIM,
20:38but with the JJP in Haryana.
20:39Now, okay,
20:40at that point of time,
20:41the combination didn't quite fare well.
20:42But you speak of only Hyderabad,
20:44but the fact is,
20:46Ovesi's party has been able to make
20:49a fair amount of political capital
20:52in Bihar and even in Bengal,
20:55not getting many seats,
20:57but denting it for the principal opposition then.
21:03What percentage of votes they are getting
21:05is not important.
21:07Important is they are more than,
21:11the out-of-proportion projection of AIMIM,
21:16that they are going to,
21:18that they will talk something
21:19which will help a polarized election
21:22during the election.
21:23That's why I keep saying this.
21:24Why Ovesi has been considered
21:26to be the Muslim leader?
21:28Why?
21:29Why every time something happens,
21:31people go with their mic
21:32and talk to him
21:32and get their reactions.
21:34And then the entire debate
21:35is mounted on that.
21:37Entire debate is mounted on that,
21:39not on a daily basis.
21:41Okay, final comment, Rajat Sethi.
21:43There are many political parties
21:44who are getting 2%, 3% vote share
21:46across the country.
21:47We don't go to them
21:49because it doesn't help
21:50the rise of elections.
21:51Rajat Sethi, final comments.
21:52Come in.
21:54So, PTG,
21:54if voting percentage
21:55is any metric of media coverage,
21:57then Aam Admi Party
21:59when it was starting
22:00should have got
22:00zero media coverage then, right?
22:02Aam Admi Party
22:03was a non-entity in Gujarat,
22:04was a non-entity in Goa.
22:06They should have not gotten
22:07any kind of a media coverage.
22:08What kind of a retarded argument this is?
22:10If a party is there,
22:11they have all the rights.
22:12If they're making statements
22:15which are extreme in nature,
22:17the media,
22:18it is media's responsibility
22:19not to cover them.
22:20I mean,
22:21where do you stop
22:21the political party
22:22from coming out
22:23and making comments?
22:25By that logic,
22:25Samajwadi Party
22:26has made all kinds
22:27of obnoxious remarks as well.
22:29And so has BJP.
22:30So, try and contain
22:31those remarks as well.
22:33So, again,
22:34my point is not this.
22:35From a pure analysis perspective,
22:37as I said,
22:38Samajwadi Party,
22:39for instance,
22:40their PDA,
22:41it is trying to be
22:42one slogan,
22:43trying to be
22:44an over-encompassing,
22:45all-encompassing
22:45sort of a message
22:47where P is
22:47Pichara also
22:48and Pandit also.
22:49The problem
22:50with this kind
22:51of a messaging is,
22:52no, Juhi ji,
22:53this is an honest assessment.
22:55You're trying to be
22:55pleasing to too many
22:57constituents together.
22:58And in this,
22:59in this sort of a setting,
23:01in this sort of a setting,
23:02you want to...
23:03Okay, allow him.
23:04Allow him, ma'am,
23:05I'll come to you
23:05for final comments.
23:06Allow him.
23:06So, when you try
23:07to be everything
23:08to everyone,
23:09you end up
23:10just being a Congress party
23:11which...
23:12The way in which
23:13they have...
23:15Ma'am, allow him,
23:16just allow me
23:17to make my logic
23:17and then I'll hear you
23:18on this.
23:19Quickly, could we make a point?
23:21When the MIM
23:23and when Chandrasekhar Azad,
23:25they make
23:26more shrill arguments,
23:27they suddenly stand
23:28to draw a lot of attention
23:30because Samajwadi party
23:32is trying to be
23:32two risk averse
23:33in its position.
23:34They had to go
23:35beyond the MY equation,
23:37you know,
23:38and that has been
23:39their sort of plan
23:39in action
23:40for quite some time.
23:41But in that exercise,
23:43if you start going
23:43to Ayodhya,
23:44if you start
23:45going away
23:46from your core planks
23:47and your core messaging,
23:48it is going to get impacted
23:49the way Congress,
23:51which was
23:52an upper-caste party,
23:53started appeasing
23:54to the Pichalas also
23:55and to the Dalits also
23:56and they ended up
23:56being nowhere.
23:57There is no proposition
23:58that the Congress party
23:59today has in the state of UP.
24:00This is why I believe
24:01why ascending
24:03and rising
24:05Chandrasekhar Azad
24:05and an MIM,
24:06even with a 4-5%
24:08of vote
24:09in a very closely
24:09contested election
24:10might just prove
24:11to be decisive.
24:12They might not win
24:13any election,
24:13as I said.
24:14It can disturb
24:15the equations.
24:16All right.
24:1730 seconds
24:17to all final comments.
24:19Juhi Singh,
24:19you've been wanting
24:19to make a point.
24:20Quick, ma'am.
24:2130 seconds.
24:23Yeah.
24:23That's an obnoxious
24:24comment by Mr. Sethi
24:26to say that
24:27there is actually
24:28some sort of
24:28an enmity or act
24:29coming between
24:30the Dalits
24:31and the pundits.
24:32So if you do
24:32the PDM,
24:33sir,
24:34the socialist thinking
24:35has always been
24:36to work
24:37for the pichda,
24:38Dalits,
24:38all the people
24:40who are
24:42standing there
24:43waiting for you
24:43to really
24:45make the reforms
24:46which are needed.
24:47So I don't see
24:49any problem there.
24:51And you said
24:51that if we visit
24:52the Ram Mandir,
24:53then there will be
24:54an issue.
24:55You're hoping so,
24:56is it?
24:56But I think
24:57the people of UP
24:58are intelligent enough.
24:59I don't think
25:00people vote
25:01by the fact
25:02whether we issue,
25:03whether we visit
25:04the Ram Mandir
25:05or we don't
25:06within the Ram Mandir.
25:07I mean,
25:07democratically,
25:08India is a mature
25:10electoral society.
25:12So you are making
25:13the same point
25:14from the other side
25:15which Mr.
25:16Maas Pathan
25:16is making
25:17from this side,
25:18right?
25:18and the Swajwadi
25:19Party is
25:21following its own
25:22strategy.
25:2330 seconds.
25:24Tuhin Sina.
25:25The upper caste party
25:26but on what basis
25:28you do that
25:28the Congress
25:29will be able
25:29to answer better.
25:30Okay,
25:30Tuhin Sina.
25:3130 seconds.
25:33Look at the
25:34ambivalence,
25:35look at the confusion
25:36in the opposition camp.
25:37You know,
25:37just yesterday
25:38they were tom-tomming
25:39about, you know,
25:40they're having the right
25:40to decide
25:41when to visit
25:41the temple
25:42and now Juhi Ji
25:43is saying
25:43whether we visit
25:44the temple or not.
25:45It is this ambivalence,
25:46this confusion,
25:48this diffidence
25:49which the voter
25:50will not want to see
25:51on the voting day.
25:53So let me tell you,
25:54you know,
25:55this announcement
25:55of the unnatural alliance
25:58today
25:58is the clearest sign yet
26:01that it will be
26:02a one-sided election
26:03very clearly,
26:05you know,
26:05reminiscent of a
26:062017 election.
26:08There is no other way
26:09I am seeing this election
26:10but yes,
26:11there is complete panic
26:12in the opposition camp
26:13and there is complete,
26:14they are in complete
26:15the same.
26:16Okay.
26:1630 seconds,
26:17Ashutosh, quickly.
26:20I see the panic
26:21in the other camp
26:22and especially the fight
26:23between the Delhi
26:24and the Lucknow.
26:25So that is why
26:26it is said that
26:271.27 lakh votes
26:29have been deleted
26:30from the voter list
26:32and Mr. Yogi Adityanath
26:33is extremely worried today.
26:35See,
26:35the reality today
26:36is that there is
26:37a tough contest in UP.
26:38There is no doubt
26:38about it.
26:40Chandrasekhar Azat,
26:41you know how much
26:41he got in 2022
26:42itself?
26:430.1% vote share.
26:44In 2024,
26:46got 0.7% vote share.
26:48Now imagine
26:49why these tidbits
26:50of political formations
26:52suddenly join together.
26:54Because the fight
26:55is very tough
26:56between these two
26:57political formations
26:59and a 2% or 3% vote share
27:01either this way
27:02or that way
27:02will decide the elections.
27:03So now you know
27:04the larger design
27:05everybody knows in UP
27:07and anybody who has
27:08understood UP
27:09or has studied UP
27:11knows
27:11that why these two
27:13had come together.
27:14What is their agenda?
27:16Okay.
27:18All right.
27:19Ranjit Sethi,
27:20final comment, sir.
27:2130 seconds.
27:23So I think
27:25a lot needs to be seen
27:26when the Samajwadi
27:27party's workers
27:28which are pretty
27:29aggressive workers
27:30and supporters
27:31when they start
27:31hitting the street.
27:32So this entire
27:33PDA architecture
27:34falls flat
27:36and we have seen
27:36that PtG in 2022
27:37I remember
27:38I was in India today
27:40we were trying
27:40to analyze
27:41and you said
27:41that the groundswell
27:43of very very vocal
27:44supporters of
27:45Samajwadi party
27:46gave an impression
27:46that Samajwadi party
27:48is doing everything
27:49right and they
27:49will win the election.
27:50That was the ground
27:51report everywhere.
27:51But this is what happens
27:53when these very
27:54aggressive workers
27:55are out on the streets
27:56the Dalits are reminded
27:57of what happened
27:58during the tenure
27:59of Mr. Akhile Shardar
28:00when he was
28:01the chief minister.
28:02The community
28:03the Yadav community
28:04and the Dalit
28:05and the sort of contest
28:06and the sharp
28:08sort of social unrest
28:09that used to happen
28:10became the main
28:12defining feature
28:12of Samajwadi party
28:13under Akhile Shardar
28:14and I think
28:15that is going
28:16to rekindle
28:17and this is where
28:18PDA structure
28:19comes under risk.
28:20And I believe
28:21that this alliance
28:22will be waiting
28:23to bounce up
28:23onto that opportunity
28:25given that
28:26Maya Vatiji
28:27she is not speaking
28:28that much
28:29she is old
28:30and she is largely retired.
28:31So there is still
28:32a 12 to 13 percentage
28:34of voters
28:35which are out there
28:36and ready to be grasped
28:37and I think
28:38that would be something
28:39that Ravon would want.
28:39All right.
28:40I need to end the show
28:41but I think one thing
28:42we do agree on
28:42at least the political analysts
28:44that it is going to be
28:44a close election
28:45at least by the looks
28:46of it now
28:47and a 2-3 percent
28:48could really come
28:49in terms of being
28:50a decisive mandate
28:52this way or that.
28:53So therefore
28:53that gives credence
28:54to why this alliance
28:55could be more important
28:57than what it just looks
28:58like right now.
28:59But thank you.
29:00I appreciate all four of you
29:01for taking the time out
29:02and joining us.
29:03Appreciate it.
29:03Thank you so much.