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Russia’s campaign against Ukrainian cities is bringing the costs of war closer to home. As Russian strikes damage power plants and heating systems in Kyiv and Kharkiv, Ukrainian drones are reaching oil facilities, industry, and other infrastructure inside Russia—including around St. Petersburg.
Elvira Bary examines how attacks on energy and industry affect civilians and economies, whether hardship can force either society to surrender, and why the Kremlin and Kyiv may respond to pressure with further escalation. This current-affairs analysis explores the military, political, and diplomatic stakes of a war increasingly fought against the systems that keep cities running.
For listeners seeking Russia-Ukraine war analysis, reporting on drone strikes and energy infrastructure, and context on civilian resilience, economic warfare, and escalation risks, this episode offers a focused look beyond the battlefield.
Elvira Bary examines how attacks on energy and industry affect civilians and economies, whether hardship can force either society to surrender, and why the Kremlin and Kyiv may respond to pressure with further escalation. This current-affairs analysis explores the military, political, and diplomatic stakes of a war increasingly fought against the systems that keep cities running.
For listeners seeking Russia-Ukraine war analysis, reporting on drone strikes and energy infrastructure, and context on civilian resilience, economic warfare, and escalation risks, this episode offers a focused look beyond the battlefield.
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00:00Putin began this war expecting to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield. That didn't happen. Then Russia
00:07tried to exhaust Ukraine economically by attacking factories, power plants, and transportation
00:13networks. Ukraine suffered enormous damage, but it kept fighting. Now Putin is relying more heavily
00:21on another strategy, making Ukraine cities increasingly difficult to live in. But this
00:27time, the war is coming home to Russia. Ukraine has learned to strike deep inside Russian territory,
00:35and the recent massive drone attack on St. Petersburg showed how vulnerable Russia's own
00:41infrastructure has become. So what happens when both sides begin attacking the systems
00:47that keep cities functioning? Can Putin break Ukraine this way? Or will Russia discover
00:54that the same strategy can be used against it? I am Elvira Barry, a Russian-American writer who
01:01grew up in the Soviet Union. Today, we will look at why Russia is increasingly targeting the
01:08infrastructure Ukrainian civilians depend on, how Ukraine is striking back, and whether this war on
01:15cities can actually force either side to give in. Here is our roadmap. When cities become targets,
01:21why Russia is trying to make Ukrainian cities unlivable, the war comes home, how Ukraine is bringing the
01:30consequences of war into Russia, what shutdowns cost, how infrastructure attacks affect both economies,
01:38will people break, whether civilian suffering can force political change, the diplomatic contest, how this
01:47escalation affects Ukraine's international relationships, the escalation trap, what could happen if neither
01:56country backs down? And now I have some exciting news. My new political trailer, The Snow Queen's Spring,
02:04is coming out on November 9th. The novel takes readers behind the closed doors of Russia's ruling elite
02:12into a world of secret fortunes, sanctions, busting schemes, and powerful men who have turned the state into
02:21their private business. It explores how Russia's mafia-style system actually works, who profits from the war,
02:29and what happens when those who help keep the regime running find themselves trapped by it. The Snow Queen's Spring
02:37releases November 9th and is already available for pre-order on Amazon. The link is in the description.
02:45And now here's a short book trailer to give you a taste of the story.
02:50Marika Snegova is the Snow Queen of the Kremlin's shadow economy. She runs secret supply chains that keep
02:59Russia's sanctioned aviation industry airborne. But Marika has a dangerous secret. When Russia invaded Ukraine,
03:09her daughter Alyssa abandoned Harvard, went to Kyiv to volunteer and limited contact with her mother
03:16to occasional text messages. Then Alyssa disappears altogether.
03:27Marika has no way of finding out what happened to her daughter. Under constant surveillance,
03:34she knows that if the authorities discover Alyssa's support for Ukraine, she could pay with her life.
03:41Desperate, she turns to Leo Brunovall, an American engineer designing drones for Ukraine.
03:49They were lovers in Soviet Moscow until the KGB tore them apart. Now they find themselves on opposite
03:59sides of a conflict far more brutal than the Cold War of their youth. The Snow Queen's Spring
04:08A geopolitical thriller by Elvira Berry Coming November 9th
04:161. When Cities Become Targets
04:21Russia is now attacking the systems that millions of Ukrainian civilians depend on. On October 13th and
04:2814th Russian missiles and drones struck power facilities in Kyiv and Kharkiv. All three major
04:35power stations serving the Ukrainian capital were hit. Around 600,000 people in Kyiv temporarily lost electricity.
04:44Russia's defense ministry acknowledged attacking power plants. And that tells us something important
04:51about how the Kremlin's approach has changed. In the early years of the invasion, Russian officials
04:57routinely claimed they were attacking only military targets. When civilians were killed, they denied
05:03responsibility or even blamed Ukraine for staging attacks on its own people. Now, Moscow openly announces
05:11attacks on the infrastructure that keep civilian cities running. It still presents these facilities
05:17as legitimate military targets, but the consequences for ordinary people are impossible to ignore. And
05:24those consequences can be devastating. Consider what happened in Kyiv during the previous winter.
05:31On January 9th, a Ukrainian woman named Tatiana Shkret received warnings about another possible Russian attack.
05:39She lived in an apartment building with her two children, aged 4 and 11. Tatiana knew that if the electricity
05:48went out, she would not be able to cook. So, she started preparing food around midnight and continued until 3
05:56in the morning.
05:57Then the power disappeared. After the attack, her family spent a day without heating. The children
06:04were cold and everyone put on several layers of clothing. Eventually, they all slept together in one bed to
06:12keep warm. Their apartment also depended on electricity for its water supply. Even though Tatiana had bought
06:19batteries, she could not make the building's water pumps work. This is what an attack on a power station means
06:26for an ordinary family. And Tatiana was far from alone. Russia carried out hundreds of attacks on Ukrainian electricity
06:35and heating facilities during the winter of 2025-2026. Some cities experienced prolonged outages, leaving
06:44residents without reliable heating or hot water during extremely cold weather. The coming winter
06:50threatens to bring more of the same. Now, why does Putin believe this strategy could work? He wants Ukrainians
06:58to become exhausted. If people cannot heat their homes or provide normal lives for their children, some may
07:06decide that continuing the war is simply too expensive. The pressure could take several forms. Families
07:13might leave the country. Businesses could shut down. Citizens might demand that their government reach an
07:19agreement with Russia even if the terms are unfavorable. And there is another calculation. Every district
07:26facility forces Ukraine to spend money on repairs instead of other needs, including its military defense.
07:33The more resources the country must use just to keep its cities functioning, the fewer it has available
07:40elsewhere. But there is one serious problem with this strategy. Civilian suffering does not necessarily
07:48make people willing to surrender. It can also strengthen their anger against the country attacking them.
07:54The war comes home.
07:59Ukraine is trying to end the war by making the costs of invasion increasingly difficult for Moscow to
08:05ignore. And Ukrainian drones can now reach places that once seemed far beyond the war. On October 18,
08:14Ukraine launched one of its largest drone attacks against St. Petersburg, Russia's second-largest city,
08:20and Putin's hometown. The attacks struck oil facilities and other infrastructure. Fires broke out at the St.
08:28Petersburg oil terminal and the Ruchi oil depot. A major warehouse was damaged and drones also hit a data
08:37center belonging to the Russian social network Vkontakte. But the consequences also reached ordinary
08:44residents. About 20,000 people temporarily lost electricity. St. Petersburg's Pulkova airport restricted flights.
08:54Several residential buildings were damaged. According to Russian authorities, one person was killed and 15 were
09:02injured in the attacks on the city and surrounding region. An EFE journalist spoke with a resident who said she
09:11had
09:11been unable to sleep all night because drones and air defense missiles were flying overhead. Another resident,
09:1958-year-old Galina, said that attacks from both sides had become part of the terrible routine of war.
09:26For Russians, who spent years watching the invasion on television, this is a very different experience.
09:33These attacks have two purposes. The first is practical. Russia needs fuel,
09:39transportation and industrial production to continue fighting. Damaging those systems can make the war more expensive
09:47and interfere with military supplies. The second is political. Ukraine wants Russia to understand that the destruction
09:56of Ukrainian infrastructure will bring consequences for Russia itself. Now, can Ukrainian strikes make Putin
10:04the war? Do you think that Ukraine should reconsider his attacks on Ukrainian cities? We do not know yet.
10:09After the St. Petersburg attack, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Ukraine's actions would not change
10:17Russia's military objectives. And that may be true. Authoritarian leaders can impose enormous costs on their own
10:26countries without facing the same political consequences as elected governments.
10:322. What shutdowns cost?
10:37Both Russia and Ukraine want to damage the other countries' ability to keep fighting.
10:42And infrastructure attacks inflict enormous costs that spread far beyond the affected facility.
10:49The most obvious cost is repairing damaged equipment. But the larger problem is what happens while a
10:56facility cannot operate. Workers lose their jobs or their income. Companies stop producing goods and might have
11:04to go out of business. And governments collect less tax revenue just when they need more money for the war.
11:11Let's look at Ukraine first. Krivoy Rik is one of the country's largest industrial cities.
11:19Before the invasion, its mines and steelworks provided jobs for thousands of people and
11:24supplied products to customers around the world. But in September 2026, the enormous Arcelor
11:30Metal steelmaking complex suspended operations after repeated Russian missile strikes.
11:36This was a major blow to the local economy. The city's mayor, Alexander Vilkul, described how difficult it had
11:44become to maintain basic services. His administration was struggling to keep hospitals functioning, schools
11:51supplied with electricity and public transportation operating. This is how attacks on industrial infrastructure
11:58can weaken an entire city. Another example comes from Bilatserko, near Kyiv. Ukrainian businessman Vassil
12:06Khmelnytsky had planned to build three new factories at an industrial park there. But in October, he cancelled
12:13those plans because the risks to businesses and workers had become too great. And Russia faces its own version
12:21of this problem. On October 15, a Ukrainian drone struck the Rosneft oil refinery in Reza. The attack
12:30caused a fire, and part of the refinery's production had been shut down. This facility supplies fuel to
12:37Moscow and represents a significant part of Russia's refining capacity. It had already suffered earlier
12:44attacks that interrupted operations. And the problem is spreading across the Russian oil industry. By
12:50September, half of Russia's largest diesel-producing refineries had reduced production after Ukrainian
12:56drone attacks. The government introduced restrictions on fuel exports to protect domestic supplies. This
13:04matters because oil and fuel are among Russia's most important sources of revenue. Will people break?
13:15Putin's strategy depends on an assumption that if Ukrainians suffer enough, they will eventually
13:22demand peace, even on Russia's terms. But is that even true? In February 2026, Reuters journalists visited
13:30Odessa, where residents were struggling with another window of blackouts and Russian attacks.
13:36One woman, Lyudmila, was charging her phone at a humanitarian aid tent. She said the previous year
13:44had been the hardest of the entire war. The attacks had become so frequent that when air raid warnings
13:51appeared in the evening, she would prepare to sleep fully dressed with her documents packed in a bag.
13:58For millions of Ukrainians, this is what daily life has become. And the pressure is growing. More Ukrainians
14:06could be forced to leave their homes this winter because of continued infrastructure attacks.
14:13Now that sounds like Russia's strategy is working. People are exhausted. Some are leaving and the economy
14:21suffers. But there is an important difference between wanting the war to end and wanting your
14:27government to surrender. On October 19, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology published a
14:34new survey. Despite the intensified attacks, 62% of Ukrainians said they were ready to endure the war
14:43for as long as necessary. In Kyiv, which has suffered particularly heavy strikes,
14:48the figure was 68%. The same survey found that a majority of Ukrainians rejected the proposal to
14:57withdraw their troops from the remaining Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donbass in exchange for Western
15:02security guarantees. The opposition to this proposal even became stronger since January. So the recent
15:10attacks have only strengthened public determination rather than weakened it.
15:16Now, look at Russia. Ukrainian strikes are unlikely to provoke mass protests against Putin. And there
15:24are two important reasons. The first is fear. In Russia, protesting against the war is physically
15:32dangerous. People have been arrested, beaten, fined, and imprisoned for criticizing the invasion.
15:40Even a peaceful demonstration can end with years behind bars. So a Russian who loses his home to a drone
15:48attack may be furious with the government. But expressing that anger publicly is a very different
15:55matter. He knows what can happen to him. The second reason is even more important. That is propaganda.
16:04For years, the Kremlin has portrayed the war as a struggle for Russia's very survival. Ukraine is
16:13supposedly controlled by Nazis. The West wants to destroy Russia and Putin is defending the nation against its
16:22enemies. The parallels with World War II are deliberate. Every Russian family knows stories of the terrible
16:30hardships that their grandparents endured to defeat Nazi Germany. Soviet propaganda turned that suffering
16:38into a source of national pride. Now, the Kremlin tells Russians that their generation must demonstrate
16:46the same courage and endurance. Under this narrative, Ukrainian drone attacks become proof that the enemy is
16:54dangerous and ruthless. The obvious reaction is to hate the attacker, not the president who started the war.
17:02We saw this mechanism during Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region in 2024. Residents complained
17:10about the local authorities' failures, but never blamed Putin. And here is the psychological trap many
17:16people fall in. If Russia air defenses shoot down the drones, Putin is protecting his people. If the drones get
17:24through, it only proves how dangerous Russia's enemies are and how badly the country needs a strong leader.
17:31Things would be even worse without him. That is what many Russians are encouraged to believe.
17:38So, neither government can assume that causing more suffering will produce the political reaction it wants.
17:46The Diplomatic Contest
17:50The current goals of Russia and Ukraine are near impossible to reconcile. And the recent attempt to
17:58negotiate an energy ceasefire shows why. On October 11, Donald Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had
18:06agreed to stop attacking each other's energy infrastructure effective immediately. There was one problem.
18:13Neither Moscow nor Kyiv had confirmed such an agreement. Zelensky welcomed the idea but insisted that Russia
18:22must stop attacking Ukraine energy facilities as well. Russian strikes continued. A combined heating and power
18:30plan in Kharkiv was hit shortly after Trump's announcement. Ukraine briefly suspended strikes on Russian
18:38refineries, then resumed them as the proposed ceasefire fell apart. Now, consider what each side was actually
18:46trying to achieve. For Putin, attacks on Ukrainian electricity and heating facilities create difficulties far beyond the front.
18:55They forced Ukraine to spend resources on repairs and civilian protection. They also increased pressure on
19:02Ukraine to protect Ukraine's Western supporters. But Russia wants to preserve its oil exports, a vital source of revenue that
19:10keeps
19:10Putin on power and funds his war. For Ukraine, the calculation is almost the reverse. Ukraine cannot match Russia in
19:19the
19:19production of missiles and conventional weapons. But it can use long-range drones to damage valuable facilities and make the
19:28cost of
19:29continuing the war harder for Moscow to ignore. That gives Kyiv something to negotiate with.
19:36And then comes the third participant, the United States. Trump has been increasingly concerned about
19:42diesel prices, which have become a domestic political problem ahead of November's mid-term elections.
19:48His administration announced a deal allowing more than 300,000 metric tons of Russian
19:54diesel onto American and global markets. Washington presented this economic opening as an incentive to
20:00bring Moscow back into negotiations. But from Kyiv's perspective, it reduced pressure on Russia,
20:07while demanding that Ukraine suspend one of its remaining means of pressure. In October 19,
20:13Zelensky proposed another plan. Ukraine would stop attacking Russian refineries for 30 days if
20:19Washington supplied interceptors for its Patriot air defense systems. This was an attempt to trade one
20:26military advantage for another, and it shows what a practical agreement would require. First, both sides
20:33would need to define precisely which facilities were protected. Second, there would need to be credible
20:41monitoring. Third, violations would need consequences. The escalation trap. The ongoing war on cities creates
20:52a dangerous mechanism. When one round of attacks fails to change the enemy's behavior, each side has an
21:01incentive to increase the pressure. But every escalation also gives the opponent another reason to retaliate.
21:08For Russia, there is a particularly troubling possibility. If destroying part of Ukraine's energy
21:14infrastructure does not force concessions, the Kremlin can conclude that it simply has not destroyed
21:21enough. So it continues attacking facilities that engineers are trying to repair, looking for the point
21:28at which the damage becomes impossible to manage. But Ukraine will strike back. While much of Russian
21:35infrastructure is poorly protected against this kind of air attacks, I have a dedicated video that
21:41explains why Russia cannot put up that protection quickly. The other danger is geographical. On October 15,
21:49two chemical tankers were struck by drones near the Armenian Black Sea coast. One was hit in Romanian waters.
21:56At least seven sailors were reported missing after the attacks.
22:00A NATO military source identified the drones as Russians, although Romanian authorities had not
22:08conclusively established responsibility. This incident shows how an expanding campaign against
22:14infrastructure and transport can endanger countries that are not fighting the war. So where does this lead?
22:22The first possibility is continued escalation. Russia keeps attacking Ukrainian cities, while Ukraine expands
22:30operations against facilities supporting Russia's war effort. Both countries become less economically productive,
22:37but neither obtain a decisive political result. The second is a limited agreement that reduced attacks on
22:44designated facilities. It would provide immediate relief, but its survival would depend on credible verification
22:52and consequences for violations. The third is a wider political settlement backed by security arrangements
22:59that make renewed oppression less attractive than peace. The danger is that the first possibility requires no
23:08agreement at all. It can continue simply because every failed attack becomes an argument for
23:14trying again with greater force. Now I'd like to ask you something personal. Have you ever seen someone go
23:23through extreme pressure or hardship and become more determined instead of giving up? What made them keep going?
23:32Tell me about it in the comments. If this video helped you better understand why attacks on cities do not
23:39always
23:40produce the political results their planners expect? Please like it, subscribe, and share it with someone who might find this
23:48discussion interesting. And if you want to help make this kind of independent analysis possible, you can support the
23:56research behind these videos from my FinkTink, Paypal, or SuperFinks. That support helps fund source checking, historical
24:06research, translation, and the time it takes to go beyond the daily headlines.
24:12If you are listening on Spotify, please follow the show so you don't miss the next episode.
24:19And for something lighter, you can follow me on Facebook, where I'm publishing my memoirs.
24:25And just a quick reminder, you can pre-order my new novel The Snow Queen's Spring on Amazon and explore
24:31the strange,
24:32dangerous, yet endlessly fascinating world of Russia and Ukraine through human stories I've collected and
24:39preserved especially for you. Thank you for watching. I'll see you in the next one.
25:032nd.
25:0611.
25:0621.
25:0622.