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Putin, Trump and Xi are pursuing power and leverage—but could their political victories leave their countries weaker? Elvira Bary examines the competing strategies shaping U.S.-China relations, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the global struggle for influence.
From Trump’s energy and trade pressure on China to Putin’s bet on time and Xi’s ambitions amid China’s economic and demographic challenges, this geopolitical analysis explores the costs of short-term thinking. Discover how energy dependence, authoritarian rule, and fragile alliances can reshape international security—and why diplomacy and cooperation may offer a more durable path. A current affairs video for viewers interested in world politics, foreign policy, Russia, China, the United States, and the future of global power.
From Trump’s energy and trade pressure on China to Putin’s bet on time and Xi’s ambitions amid China’s economic and demographic challenges, this geopolitical analysis explores the costs of short-term thinking. Discover how energy dependence, authoritarian rule, and fragile alliances can reshape international security—and why diplomacy and cooperation may offer a more durable path. A current affairs video for viewers interested in world politics, foreign policy, Russia, China, the United States, and the future of global power.
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00:00Putin, Trump and Xi are playing a dangerous game.
00:04It is trying to increase his own power by gaining leverage over everyone else.
00:11But there is a problem.
00:12A leader can win this kind of game personally while his country pays the price.
00:18Look at what is happening now.
00:20Donald Trump keeps quarreling with America's traditional allies,
00:24yet often speaks about Vladimir Putin with remarkable warmth.
00:30Putin has spent years telling Russians that their country is fighting a historical battle against the West,
00:37especially the United States.
00:40Yet he is willing to sell diesel to Americans, even as Russian refineries face serious disruptions.
00:48And Xi Jinping presents China as a champion of peace,
00:53while Chinese companies continue supplying Russia with machinery, electronics and components
01:00that help sustain its military industry.
01:03Yesterday's enemy becomes today's business partner.
01:06Allies become adversaries.
01:08Leaders promise peace while helping sustain a war.
01:12From the outside, this can look contradictory.
01:15But each leader is following his own political logic.
01:19And once we understand that logic, something important becomes clear.
01:25The interests of a powerful ruler and the long-term interests of his country are not always the same.
01:31I am Elvira Barry, a Russian-American writer who grew up in the Soviet Union.
01:36Today, we will look at the game Trump, Putin and Xi are playing,
01:39what each of them hopes to gain, and why their countries could end up paying for their victories.
01:47Here is our roadmap.
01:49The world inside their heads.
01:51What these leaders believe about power.
01:54The price of short-term thinking.
01:56How Western governments helped create today's problems.
02:01The energy trap.
02:02Trump's attempt to gain leverage over China.
02:05Putin's waiting game.
02:08Why Moscow is betting on time.
02:11Xi's dangerous bargain.
02:13How Xi uses China's economic power to challenge America while risking his country's long-term prosperity.
02:21The lesson we refuse to learn.
02:24What could make international cooperation safer?
02:27And now I have some exciting news.
02:30My new political thriller, The Snow Queen's Spring, is coming out on November 9th.
02:35The novel takes readers behind the closed doors of Russia's ruling elite into a world of secret fortunes,
02:43sanctions-busting schemes, and powerful men who have turned the state into their private business.
02:50It explores how Russia's mafia-style system actually works, who profits from the war,
02:55and what happens when those who help keep the regime running find themselves trapped by it.
03:02The Snow Queen's Spring releases November 9th and is already available for pre-order on Amazon.
03:08The link is in the description.
03:10And now here is a short book trailer to give you a taste of the story.
03:15Marika Snegova is the Snow Queen of the Kremlin's shadow economy.
03:21She runs secret supply chains that keep Russia's sanctioned aviation industry airborne.
03:29But Marika has a dangerous secret.
03:32When Russia invaded Ukraine, her daughter Alyssa abandoned Harvard, went to Kyiv to volunteer,
03:39and limited contact with her mother to occasional text messages.
03:45Then, Alyssa disappears altogether.
03:52Marika has no way of finding out what happened to her daughter.
03:57Under constant surveillance, she knows that if the authorities discover Alyssa's support for Ukraine,
04:03she could pay with her life.
04:06Desperate, she turns to Leo Brunewald, an American engineer designing drones for Ukraine.
04:14They were lovers in Soviet Moscow until the KGB tore them apart.
04:21Now they find themselves on opposite sides of a conflict far more brutal than the Cold War of their youth.
04:30The Snow Queen's Spring
04:33A Geopolitical Thriller by Elvira Berry
04:37Coming November 9th
04:41The World Inside Their Heads
04:46Trump, Putin, and Xi have more in common than you might expect.
04:50Trump was born in 1946, Putin and Xi in 1953.
04:55They grew up during the Cold War when superpowers competed for influence and smaller nations had
05:03little say in the arrangements made over their heads.
05:06Their formative careers were very different.
05:09Trump attended military boarding school, studied economics, and learned real estate in his father's
05:15company.
05:16Xi studied chemical engineering and advanced through China's Communist Party.
05:21He later received a doctorate in Marxist theory and ideological education within an academic field
05:28closely tied to official party doctrine.
05:32Putin studied law to pursue a career in the KGB.
05:37Soviet social sciences were constrained by Marxist-Leninist orthodoxy,
05:43and his professional training emphasized secrecy, threats, and control.
05:48Their backgrounds and political behavior suggest that they place a little value on the principles
05:55emphasized by modern democratic theory, accountability, the peaceful transfer of power,
06:01and checks and balances.
06:04Instead, their public agendas consistently emphasize hierarchy, dominance, and the concentration of power.
06:12Despite their different backgrounds, we can identify several striking similarities in how they approach
06:19international politics.
06:20First, they see dominance as the foundation of international relations.
06:26A great power should be able to impose its will on weaker countries.
06:31Second, they think in terms of spheres of influence.
06:36Much like medieval feudal lords, they measure power by the territory,
06:40resources, and dependent states under their control.
06:44Putin demands recognition of Russia's special authority over its neighbors.
06:48Xi speaks of national rejuvenation and bringing Taiwan under Beijing's control.
06:55Trump's 2025 national security strategy revived the Monroe Doctrine and asserted American
07:01preeminence in the Western Hemisphere.
07:04Third, they want to secure their place in history.
07:08They aspire to stand alongside rulers who expanded their nation's power and prestige.
07:15Their personal greatness becomes closely associated with their country's dominance over others.
07:22Fourth, the consequences for ordinary people appear to be secondary.
07:28Economic hardship, lost opportunities, and even human lives
07:32become acceptable costs in the pursuit of geopolitical ambitions.
07:37Fifth, they tend to see international politics as a zero-sum game.
07:43If one country gains influence, another must lose it.
07:47Making a rival weaker seems just as valuable as making your own country stronger.
07:52And finally, they treat this struggle for dominance as the natural order of things.
07:59Powerful countries have always controlled weaker ones, so why should the world work any differently?
08:06But there is a fundamental problem with this assumption.
08:11No law of nature assigns Ukraine to Russia, Taiwan to the People's Republic of China, or Latin America to the
08:18United States.
08:19Geography, military capabilities, and economic relationships are real.
08:24The supposed right to dictate another society's future is a political claim.
08:31Modern political science has demonstrated how cooperation, accountable institutions, and economic interdependence
08:39can create benefits that no country could achieve through domination alone.
08:45Yet, Trump, Putin, and Xi appear to place much greater faith in their own experience of power.
08:53After all, they have reached the very top of the political hierarchy.
08:58Why should they listen to scholars arguing that the game could be played differently?
09:04The price of short-term thinking
09:09There is an irony in Washington's fear of China.
09:12American leaders and businesses helped create the economic conditions that allowed their future competitor to grow.
09:20Companies moved production to China, attracted by inexpensive labor and expanding opportunities.
09:28Consumers enjoyed cheaper goods.
09:30Shareholders earned profits.
09:32Washington backed China's entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001.
09:38Many policymakers expected economic openness to encourage political openness.
09:45China's new middle class, they believed, would eventually demand greater freedoms.
09:50Instead, the Communist Party kept its monopoly on power.
09:55China's modernization also depended on rebuilding universities devastated during the Cultural Revolution,
10:01education, educating scientists and engineers, studying abroad, importing equipment, and developing domestic expertise.
10:09Western investment and technological cooperation accelerated that process.
10:14The problem was never that Chinese people became more prosperous.
10:18A wealthy China could also be an enormous market for American companies.
10:22The risk was that China's growing economic resources remained under the control of a government with ambitious military and geopolitical
10:31objectives and limited political accountability.
10:36Europe made a related calculation about Russia.
10:40Energy trade was profitable, Russian gas was convenient, and policymakers hoped mutual dependence would encourage stability.
10:50Major deals could be struck with a small circle in Moscow.
10:55By 2021, Russia accounted for about 45% of EU natural gas imports.
11:01Export revenues supported the Russian state as Putin concentrated power, suppressed opposition, and expanded military capabilities.
11:09Then Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and Europe discovered that dependence on an increasingly hostile supplier carried risks far beyond
11:20the price of gas.
11:22The rewards of cooperation with authoritarian regimes were immediate.
11:27Politicians could take credit for growth, companies could report earnings, and consumers could enjoy lower prices.
11:35The strategic costs accumulated slowly and fell on the next generation.
11:42The Energy Trump
11:46In the game of dominance, Trump's administration presumes that America's main strategic competitor is China,
11:53which challenges American leadership in manufacturing, advanced technologies, trade, and military power in the Pacific.
12:01Russia is a much less significant competitor to the United States given its poor military performance in Ukraine.
12:09However, it still possesses a formidable nuclear arsenal and remains capable of creating serious security problems for its neighbors.
12:19One possible American objective is to prevent Moscow and Beijing from forming a more tightly aligned bloc.
12:27Nixon exploited the Soviet-Chinese split in the 1970s.
12:31Today, some observers see Trump's interest in Putin as an attempt to reverse that maneuver.
12:38Energy offers another source of leverage.
12:41China is the world's largest crude oil importer.
12:44However, its electric vehicles and renewable energy industries are growing rapidly, but transportation, chemicals, and industry still require substantial petroleum
12:56supplies.
12:57Consider Venezuela
12:59In January 2026, American forces captured Nicolas Maduro.
13:03Washington subsequently arranged for Venezuelan oil to be redirected toward American buyers.
13:10China had been Venezuela's largest customer, receiving roughly 470,000 barrels a day during 2025.
13:19That was a meaningful source of discounted crude, although only a modest share of China's total imports.
13:27Then came Iran.
13:29On February 28, American and Israeli forces launched attacks officially directed at Iran's nuclear and military capabilities and regional threats.
13:41Tehran responded with attacks that endangered oil facilities and shipping around the Persian Gulf.
13:48The Strait of Hormuz normally carries roughly 20 million barrels of petroleum and petroleum products daily, much as its supply
13:56heads to Asia.
13:58The disruption drove prices higher and exposed China's dependence on vulnerable shipping routes.
14:04The United States gained additional ways to exert pressure on international energy flows.
14:11But Iran also demonstrated that it could impose enormous economic costs without defeating the American navy.
14:19There was an apparent benefit for American energy producers.
14:22Higher oil prices improved revenues for companies able to keep selling.
14:27But the costs reached American households.
14:31Expensive gasoline and diesel raised commuting, shipping, farming, and manufacturing costs.
14:38An American oil producer may welcome higher crude prices.
14:42A family struggling with bills sees them very differently.
14:46The situation also created a geopolitical reversal.
14:50China searched for alternative supplies, making Russian oil more useful.
14:54Pressure intended to constrain Beijing could therefore deepen Beijing's relationship with Moscow.
15:01Now Trump has turned to Putin for some relief.
15:05In October, Washington announced arrangements allowing Russian diesel exports including shipments to America, while easing certain restrictions.
15:16On October 23rd, a tanker carrying roughly 40,000 metric tons was reportedly headed to New York.
15:23Russia, supposedly America's adversary, was being asked to help ease an American fuel problem.
15:30Yet their initially discussed quantities were modest relative to the enormous global market.
15:37They could provide limited relief, not reverse the Persian Gulf crisis.
15:43The political contradiction is sharper.
15:46More Russian sales may increase Moscow's revenues while it wages war against Ukraine.
15:53And here is the fundamental problem with making immediate dominance the central objective of foreign policy.
15:59You cannot simultaneously cut China off from oil supplies, keep energy prices low for American consumers,
16:07help Putin earn more money to finance his war, and expect voters to reward you with political success.
16:15These goals are pulling in different directions.
16:18Trying to achieve one undermines another.
16:21And it becomes a game of whack-a-mole.
16:25Solve one problem and another immediately pops up.
16:29Trump may want all these victories at once, but the economic and political realities simply don't allow them to fit
16:36together.
16:37And this is what happens when the pursuit of dominance takes precedence over a coherent long-term strategy.
16:49Putin has fought for more than four years without conquering Ukraine or achieving the rapid victory he originally sought.
16:57His army has suffered enormous losses.
17:01The Russian economy is under growing pressure and the country's dependence on China has increased.
17:07But Putin is playing his own game of dominance.
17:09He needs to demonstrate to his inner circle that he can still outmaneuver Ukraine, the West, and China.
17:16And he has five cards to play.
17:19His first advantage is time.
17:22Putin does not have to worry about competitive elections.
17:25As long as he can finance the security apparatus and maintain the loyalty of the ruling elite, he can remain
17:33in power.
17:33Russia continues trading with the outside world, and despite growing budget deficits, the government still has substantial resources at its
17:44disposal.
17:45His second advantage is America's fear of Russian-Chinese alliance.
17:49Washington would prefer to prevent Moscow from becoming entirely dependent on Beijing.
17:54That makes Putin a potentially useful negotiating partner, even while his army continues attacking Ukraine.
18:02His third advantage is Trump's political calendar.
18:05The American president needs results he can present to voters.
18:09A peace agreement in Ukraine would be a major political achievement, especially with the midterm elections approaching.
18:18Putin can exploit Trump's desire for a deal by prolonging negotiations and demanding concessions.
18:26His fourth advantage is China.
18:29Beijing has no intention of sacrificing its economic interests for Russia, but it continues providing Moscow with an essential commercial
18:38lifeline.
18:39Chinese companies sell Russia machinery, electronics, vehicles, and industrial equipment, filling gaps left by departing Western suppliers and struggling domestic
18:50producers.
18:51The more Russia loses its industrial independence, the more opportunities Chinese businesses gain, and Putin can continue financing his war
19:00while becoming increasingly dependent on a partner with far greater economic power.
19:06His fifth advantage is Russia's nuclear arsenal.
19:09Western governments have strong reasons to avoid a direct military confrontation with the nuclear power.
19:16Putin understands this and repeatedly reminds them of Russia's capabilities.
19:22Nuclear deterrence helps limit the risk other countries are prepared to take in confronting Moscow.
19:28Putin appears to be calculating that these five advantages will allow him to outlast his difficulties.
19:35Perhaps European elections will bring governments less willing to support Ukraine.
19:40Perhaps Trump will decide that pressuring Zelenskyy is easier than confronting Moscow.
19:47Perhaps China will continue providing Russia with everything it needs to keep fighting.
19:51Putin doesn't need all these possibilities to materialize.
19:55He only needs enough of them to keep his system functioning and maintain their prospect of victory.
20:01And what about Russia's future?
20:04Here we return to the difference between a country's interests and the interests of its ruler.
20:11For Russia, a prosperous future would require investment in education, infrastructure, technology, and productive industries.
20:20It would mean reducing international isolation and giving the next generation opportunities that do not depend on military spending.
20:28But Putin's political incentives point elsewhere.
20:34His ideal future appears to be one in which he remains in power for the rest of his life,
20:39controls the country's resources, enjoys the loyalty of his inner circle,
20:44and is treated as an indispensable figure by the world's most powerful governments.
20:50And his place in history?
20:52He has an entire state propaganda apparatus to portray his rule as an era of national greatness.
21:01The tragedy is that Putin could win his personal game of power while leaving Russia economically weakened,
21:09politically repressive, and increasingly dependent on China.
21:13She is a dangerous bargain.
21:17And finally, let's look at this game from Beijing.
21:22Xi Jinping wants China to become the dominant power in Asia and eventually challenge American global leadership.
21:31Bringing Taiwan under Beijing's control would be a historic achievement, securing his place among
21:38China's greatest rulers.
21:41But his ambitions are colliding with China's domestic problems.
21:46China's extraordinary economic rise was built on manufacturing, international trade,
21:53and access to foreign technologies.
21:56Xi is now using the wealth accumulated during those decades to expand China's military capabilities
22:03and international influence while tightening the Communist Party's control at home.
22:09For Xi, preserving the Party's monopoly on power takes priority over political liberalization.
22:17But this comes at an enormous cost.
22:21Ordinary Chinese people need reliable employment, affordable housing, decent pensions,
22:27and opportunities to improve their lives.
22:30They also need protection from corruption and the ability to influence decisions that affect their future.
22:37Yet China's political and social institutions create deep inequalities.
22:42The household registration system, known as Hukou, divides citizens according to where they are
22:49officially registered, restricting access to education, healthcare, and other benefits for many rural migrants.
22:56Political connections also play an important role in access to power and economic opportunities.
23:03People at the top enjoy privileges that others can scarcely hope to obtain, and this inequality has economic consequences.
23:13When families cannot rely on adequate pensions, affordable health care, or equal opportunities for their children,
23:21they save as much as possible, and hesitate to spend.
23:25Raising children is expensive, and many young people see little reason to have large families.
23:32The old one-child policy also contributed to a serious gender imbalance and accelerated the aging of the population.
23:40Now China faces a demographic crisis.
23:43Its population is shrinking, the workforce is aging, and fewer workers will have to support more pensioners.
23:51Meanwhile, economic growth is slowing, the property market is struggling, and local governments are burdened with debt.
24:00Addressing these problems would require major reforms, redistributing resources,
24:07strengthening social protections, reducing privileges, and giving ordinary citizens greater economic security.
24:15But reforms create losers as well as winners.
24:20Powerful groups that have benefited from the existing system have little incentive to surrender their advantages,
24:28and Xi must maintain the loyalty of these elites while keeping their economy functioning.
24:36This is where his international ambitions become especially expensive.
24:42Instead of concentrating China's resources on difficult domestic reforms,
24:48Xi is also pursuing a costly competition for global influence.
24:52China has identified an important American vulnerability – rare earth minerals, essential for electronics,
25:02vehicles, aerospace, and defense manufacturing.
25:06Beijing's control over much of the processing and supply chain gives it considerable leverage.
25:13Chinese export restrictions have complicated Trump's tariff strategy and forced Washington to
25:18negotiate over access to these materials.
25:21But economic pressure works in both directions.
25:25China still depends on American and European markets, technologies, and investment.
25:32Then there is Russia.
25:34Beijing benefits from Putin's war in several ways.
25:37Russia supplies discounted resources, provides a market for Chinese products,
25:43and forces the United States and Europe to devote resources to another major security crisis.
25:48China also supplies Russia with industrial equipment and dual-use components that help sustain its military production.
25:57As Moscow becomes increasingly dependent on Beijing, Xi gains leverage over Putin.
26:04But this relationship comes with long-term risks.
26:08Russia is sacrificing enormous human and economic resources to a war that has already damaged its future prospects.
26:16A country increasingly dependent on military spending and political repression may eventually become a source of instability.
26:25China could find itself sharing a long border with an economically exhausted neighbor,
26:32struggling with social unrest, and possessing one of the world's largest nuclear arsenals.
26:39The lesson we refuse to learn.
26:44So, what can America and Europe do with the problems they have inherited?
26:49History offers an important lesson.
26:53Authoritarian governments can be encouraged to reform through a combination of economic incentives,
27:00diplomatic engagement, and political pressure.
27:04Consider Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev.
27:07In the 1980s, Washington could have concentrated on profitable trade agreements with the Soviet Union while ignoring its domestic repression.
27:17Instead, Reagan made human rights one of the central subjects of his negotiations with Gorbachev.
27:25He erased the cases of political prisoners, demanded greater freedom of immigration,
27:31and connected progress on these issues to broader cooperation.
27:35And this approach produced results.
27:38Gorbachev had his own reasons for reforming the Soviet system,
27:42but Western diplomatic pressure reinforced those efforts.
27:47Political prisoners were released, censorship weakened,
27:51and Soviet citizens gained freedoms that had seemed unimaginable only a few years earlier.
27:57In 1987, Reagan and Gorbachev signed the INF Treaty, eliminating an entire category of nuclear missiles.
28:07Soon afterward, the Cold War was ending.
28:11The remarkable thing is that Washington pursued its security interests while also encouraging greater freedom for Soviet citizens.
28:21The two objectives reinforced each other.
28:25Of course, the Soviet economy was already in serious trouble, and Gorbachev's reform didn't save it.
28:31But the transformation of international relations showed what could happen when diplomacy looked beyond immediate commercial advantages.
28:41Then, gradually, Western governments lost sight of that lesson.
28:45As Putin concentrated power, suppressed political opposition, and dismantled democratic institutions,
28:52Europe continued expanding its profitable energy relationship with Russia.
28:57The assumption was that economic cooperation would eventually encourage political moderation.
29:02Instead, growing revenues helped finance an increasingly repressive state and its military ambitions.
29:09Something similar happened with China.
29:12The lesson is that trade and investment should be evaluated alongside their political and security consequences.
29:19Profitable agreements can create dangerous dependencies and strengthen the governments that use their resources to threaten others.
29:28Western countries need long-term strategies that connect economic cooperation with accountability, political freedoms, and respect for international agreements.
29:40They also need the patience to pursue results that may take years rather than celebrate deals whose benefits disappear as
29:49soon as the next crisis begins.
29:51The greatest achievement of the Reagan-Garbachev era was that two hostile superpowers found a way to reduce confrontation while
30:01opening possibilities for greater freedom.
30:03That is a more valuable legacy than any short-term demonstration of dominance.
30:09And it offers an important lesson for today's leaders.
30:13The best way to protect future generations is to build a political order in which cooperation is more rewarding than
30:21aggression.
30:22Now, I'd like to ask you something.
30:24Have you ever watched a leader win a power struggle while the company, organization, or community they led became weaker
30:31because of that?
30:32What happened?
30:34Tell me about it in the comments.
30:36If you found this analysis useful, please like the video, subscribe, and share it with someone who enjoys looking beyond
30:44the headlines.
30:45You can support my independent research through Elvira's ThinkTank, Paypal, BuyMeACoffee, or SuperFinks.
30:51Your contributions help fund source checking and the research behind these videos.
30:57If you are listening on Spotify, please follow the show.
31:00And for something lighter, you can find my memoirs on Facebook.
31:05And just a quick reminder, you can pre-order my new novel, The Snow Queen's Spring, on Amazon,
31:11and explore the strange, dangerous, yet endlessly fascinating world of Russia through human stories I've collected and preserved, especially for
31:20you.
31:22I'll see you in the next video.
31:30Bye-bye.
31:31Bye-bye.
31:46Bye-bye.
31:49Amen.