- 1 hour ago
A fragile peace in Ukraine could trigger Putin’s next move, and the most dangerous targets may be closer than many expect. Elvira Bary explains why Russia’s war machine depends on the appearance of strength, making new conflict a survival strategy rather than a choice.
Drawing on Kremlin storytelling, political pressure points, and hybrid warfare tactics, the analysis looks at the Baltic states, Moldova, Central Asia, and Europe’s critical infrastructure. It also shows how sabotage, cyberattacks, proxy influence, and covert operations can deliver power at lower cost than tanks. The result is a sharp current affairs and geopolitical analysis of Russia, NATO, and the risks facing Europe after Ukraine.
Created for viewers searching for Russia analysis, Putin’s next target, NATO security, hybrid warfare, Moldova conflict, Baltic states, Central Asia politics, and Europe critical infrastructure threats. It also fits long-form political commentary, military strategy discussion, and international relations analysis for anyone following the war in Ukraine and the future of European security.
Drawing on Kremlin storytelling, political pressure points, and hybrid warfare tactics, the analysis looks at the Baltic states, Moldova, Central Asia, and Europe’s critical infrastructure. It also shows how sabotage, cyberattacks, proxy influence, and covert operations can deliver power at lower cost than tanks. The result is a sharp current affairs and geopolitical analysis of Russia, NATO, and the risks facing Europe after Ukraine.
Created for viewers searching for Russia analysis, Putin’s next target, NATO security, hybrid warfare, Moldova conflict, Baltic states, Central Asia politics, and Europe critical infrastructure threats. It also fits long-form political commentary, military strategy discussion, and international relations analysis for anyone following the war in Ukraine and the future of European security.
Category
📚
LearningTranscript
00:00Picture this. A pistol is signed tomorrow. Cameras flash. Diplomats shake hands.
00:07Commentators speak about a new chapter for Europe. People dare to exhale for the
00:13first time in years. But beneath that hopeful surface, something far more dangerous is already
00:21moving. Because if Putin leaves Ukraine intact, even wounded, even smaller, he faces a crisis inside
00:31his own system. A dictator who built his power on victories cannot survive a peace that exposes
00:39weakness. So the moment this war ends, he will look for the next one. And the question is no longer
00:48if
00:49or even when. But where? I am Vera Barry, a writer born in the Soviet Union, and tonight
00:58we will examine why Putin's regime cannot exist without war and which countries lie in the path
01:06of his next search for strength. Here is our roadmap. Victory at any cost. Why peace threatens Putin more
01:17than war. Choosing his prey. The storytelling, loopholes, and levers he needs before striking.
01:27Risky bet. The scenario where he tests NATO through the Baltics. Sheld leverage. The playbook for
01:36destabilizing and reshaping Moldova. Turn around. Why Central Asia may become the next proving ground.
01:45A smaller option. How hybrid warfare could deliver victories without tanks.
01:51Let's begin with the core of the problem. The part most Western commentators still misunderstand.
02:00For Putin, war is not a strategy. It's a survival mechanism. Every dictator builds his regime
02:07on one thing he must never lose. The illusion of strength. And in Putin's system, that illusion has been
02:17maintained for two decades, not through prosperity or innovation, but through spectacle. Crimea,
02:25Syria, little victories staged for television, each one sold as proof that Russia is rising
02:34and its leader is untouchable. Ukraine was supposed to be the biggest spectacle of all. Instead, it became
02:44the moment the mask slipped. And this is where our story truly begins. Victory at any cost.
02:57Putin's system is built on one simple rule. The leader must look strong at all times. Not even to the
03:06people.
03:06They are kept quiet by television, police and fear. He must look strong to his own elites. Governors,
03:15security chiefs, state bankers and big businessmen. If they start thinking that the czar has failed,
03:23the whole pyramid begins to shake. For 20 years, the regime sold a clear deal. You stay out of politics
03:33and in return, we give you rising incomes, stability and the feeling that Russia is great again.
03:42Foreign policy became the main stage for that feeling. Each war or operation, Georgia,
03:50Crimea, Syria was presented as a victorious show that proved Putin's skill and Russia's greatness.
03:57Ukraine was supposed to be the biggest show of all, a quick march on Kyiv, a new friendly government,
04:03parades and flags. Instead, it turned into a long meat grinder. Hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers
04:11have been killed or wounded. Huge amounts of money are poured into the army and the defense industry.
04:19The war is the budget and yet there is still no clear victory to sell. From the perspective of a
04:28normal
04:29person. This is a reason to stop and rethink what am I doing wrong from the perspective of a
04:39personalist dictator. It creates a new threat. A regime that had used war as proof of competence for years
04:46cannot suddenly say, sorry it didn't work. Let's talk about peace now. If Putin says anything like that,
04:56elites will start to doubt whether the boss can still protect them. So, the logic flips.
05:05Peace becomes risky. War, or at least the performance of strength looks safer. Research on
05:13personalist regimes shows the same pattern again and again. Such leaders start more conflicts,
05:19misjudge risks, misjudge risks more often. They are more willing to sacrifice their own citizens
05:25anything to avoid looking weak in front of their inner circle. The goal is not to take over some
05:33specific city or resource. Oil, gas and metals can be bought on the markets. Even at big prices,
05:42it's much cheaper than going to war. The goal is to prove that you are still strong. You can attack,
05:50hurt and force others to back off. Like a school bully, a dictator needs a scene where he beats someone
06:00and gets away with it. If one victim fights back too hard, the bully scans the holes for someone smaller,
06:10more isolated or unprepared, choosing his prey.
06:18At a glance, it looks like Putin has a lot of options, but there are still certain constraints.
06:27He needs a target that lets him do three things at once. Perform strength, tell a simple and relatable
06:35story and avoid a clash so strong it could blow up the regime. Let's walk through how he'll be choosing
06:43his next target. First, he needs a story. Every operation must be wrapped in some moral cover.
06:53Protecting Russian speakers, fighting terrorists, saving traditional values, rescuing allies from a
07:00foreign plot. That is why the Kremlin invests so much in TV and Telegram. The war is filmed before it
07:10is fought.
07:11Hybrid campaigns in Moldova, for example, always come with local pro-Russian channels
07:17shouting that the West wants to enslave or sell the country, while Moscow offers order and cheap gas.
07:27Second, any gray zones and loopholes to exploit. A full invasion of a NATO country is one thing. Hiring
07:35people to cut cables, burn warehouses or run cyber attacks in NATO countries is another. Such moves
07:43do a lot of damage, yet technically they don't qualify as military aggression and don't expose Russia to
07:53NATO retaliation. Third, local levers. That could be a frozen conflict like Transnistria. It could be
08:03political parties on Moscow's payroll. It could be an army base, peacekeeping force or a security treaty such as
08:13CSTO. Fourth, the price tag. Russia already spends huge sums on the war and security, around 7% of GDP
08:24and roughly 40% of the federal budget in 2025. It doesn't really have much more money to pour in,
08:32so any new operation would better be affordable. Risky bet. The Baltics
08:42On paper, the Baltic states look like a tempting target. Tiny countries on Russia's border with
08:49Russian-speaking minorities. Part of the historical Russian Empire. If Putin could invade them and have
08:58NATO swallow it, not fight for Narva, it would be the biggest propaganda victory of his life.
09:05But here's the gap between his fantasy and reality. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are not alone. They are
09:15NATO and EU members with allied troops on their soil, elaborate defense plans and a clear legal guarantee.
09:25An attack on them is an attack on all of NATO. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine,
09:34the alliance has strengthened its eastern flank, moved more forces to Poland and the Baltics, and rehearsed
09:42scenarios where reinforcements cross the Suvalki gap fast. That is why a classic tank invasion of the
09:51Baltics still looks like a low-probability scenario. Much more realistic is a long campaign of pressure
10:00and probing. Russian planes fly close to NATO airspace. Ships and civilian vessels circle undersea pipelines and
10:11cables. NATO countries keep catching suspicious activities around critical infrastructure in the
10:19Baltic Sea. This scenario is already at play. Since Sweden joined NATO, its officers say they detect Russian
10:28submarines in the Baltic almost weekly. Crews talk about hearing unknown engines on sonar in the middle of
10:37routine patrols. Then, having to decide in minutes how close to let them come to Swedish waters.
10:45It is not war, but it is not peace either. It is a constant test of nerves. For the Kremlin,
10:55the gains here are
10:57limited but useful. Raise insurance costs for their ports and pipelines. Show your own elites that
11:07NATO is scared of us. Look how they complain every time we fly near their borders. At the same time,
11:15you stay just below the line where the Alliance would have to respond with force. The risks are still real.
11:25A drone can hit the wrong ship. A submarine can cause an accident. In a crisis, all these small games
11:34could
11:34suddenly add up to a direct confrontation no one wanted or prepared for. Shelved leverage. Moldova
11:46If the Baltics are the dangerous option, Moldova is the easy one. No NATO membership. Almost no army. A pro
11:57-EU
11:57government that Moscow openly hates. And inside the country, several ready-made levers. Transnistria.
12:06A breakaway region that Russia has supported since the early 90s. A Russian peacekeeping force
12:14stationed in that region. Pro-Russian parties, local media and businessmen. Here, the Kremlin's goal is to
12:22change Moldova's course. Replace President Maya Sandu and her allies with a more convenient government.
12:32Derail EU accession. Prove that even after Ukraine, Moscow can still decide who rules in its old backyard.
12:42A bonus prize would be to formalize control over Transnistria. Russia is already running this play.
12:50With a wide hybrid campaign. Funding parties that promise neutrality and cheap gas. Spreading
13:00disinformation. Organizing protests. Trying to buy votes using criminal networks for
13:07intimidation and street actions. Over the past two years, Moldovan authorities detained dozens of people
13:15they say were trained abroad and sent back to provoke unrest before elections.
13:21There is also open disrespect for Moldovan sovereignty. In 2024, Russia opened multiple
13:27polling stations for its own presidential election in Transnistria, despite Kicinau's objections and
13:34previous agreements. Moldova responded by expelling a Russian diplomat. What does Putin get if he succeeds here?
13:43First, a psychological victory. Prove that the EU cannot protect its small neighbors from Russian
13:53interference and that color revolutions can be reversed. Second, a military and intelligence
14:02foothold between Ukraine and Romania. Even without big bases, Transnistria already hosts Russian troops and
14:11ammunition depots. Any upgrade could threaten Ukraine's southwest and complicate NATO planning in the Black Sea region.
14:22But Moldova is not as helpless as it looks. The country has EU candidate status and growing Western support.
14:32Financial aid, energy help and reforms are making it less dependent on Russian gas and trade.
14:40Even Transnistria's own economy relies on access to EU markets through Moldovan agreements.
14:47That limits how far local elites there want to go in a crisis. And Moldovan society has watched what Russian
14:56protection looks like in Ukraine. Support for the EU path is strong enough that Kremlin-backed candidates
15:04have lost all big elections. For the Kremlin, the risks are manageable, but non-zero. An open move,
15:14such as sending more troops into Transnistria or staging violent unrest, could drag in Romania a native member
15:24and trigger a larger crisis that Moscow cannot control. A failed attempt to overthrow the government in
15:32Chisinau would also be a loud, visible defeat.
15:42In Central Asia, Putin does not need new territories. He needs to prove that Russia is still the main boss
15:50in this part of its old empire. The perfect picture for his TV might look like this. There is unrest,
15:59local leaders wobble, then Russian troops or advisors arrive, restore order and fly home.
16:08That was the script in Kazakhstan in January 2022. Under the CSTO brand, a new thousand troops flew in,
16:19helped the sitting president crush the protests and left within days. On paper, it was collective security.
16:27On Russian TV, it was a reminder. We can still send soldiers abroad and decide who stays in power.
16:35The Kremlin's goal in this region is control. Moscow wants presidents in Astana,
16:40Bishkerk and Dushanba to know that only Russian backing can save them from protests, coups or Islamist threats.
16:49That gives the Kremlin leverage over everything else – military bases, transit routes, sanctions evasion,
16:58energy exports and votes in international bodies. There is also huge social lever – migration.
17:07Millions of Central Asians work in Russia. In recent years, close to half of Tajikistan's GDP and around
17:16a quarter of Kyrgyzstan's have come from money sent home by migrants, most of it from Russia. Take those
17:24workers away or suddenly block transfers and whole villages lose their income. At the same time,
17:31Russia's own war economy badly needs these migrants to keep construction and services running while
17:38Russian men are mobilized or leave the country. How strong are these states as potential victims?
17:53Kyrgyzstan has its own energy exports, a careful multi-vector policy and rising links with China,
18:02Turkey and the EU. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are much more dependent, but even if they are trying to
18:10diversify transit and finance and to use Russia, China and the West against each other.
18:17Public opinion, in Kazakhstan especially, has hardened against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine and
18:25opened threats from Russian politicians about historical lands. For Putin, the risks here are
18:32different from Europe. Every heavy-handed move will push Central Asian elites closer to Beijing and away
18:42from the Russian sphere of influence. Yet the temptation remains because small victorious operations
18:49in this region are cheap and involve no risk of direct confrontation with NATO.
18:55A smarter option. Hybrid warfare. If you look only at land borders, you miss half the picture.
19:06For Putin's regime, some of the cheapest victories lay in fear. A burned logistics center here. A card cable
19:15there. A strange drone over a foreign port. No formal war, just the feeling that Russia can reach you
19:24any time. European security services are now talking about a shadow war. Investigations in the UK, Poland,
19:32Germany and other states show the same pattern. Small cells, often young men recruited online and paid in
19:41crypto, are sent to planned devices near rail lines, warehouses and power infrastructure. Some plots were
19:49stopped. Some led to real fires and damage. These are not big operations in military terms, but each one
19:57feeds three messages. To the West, you are vulnerable. To Ukraine, your allies can be scared. And to Russian
20:09elites, our enemies are afraid to answer directly. Let's see, the same logic plays out. A recent case,
20:16the Eagle Ass incident showed how a single suspicious tanker with ties to Russia's shadow fleet can force
20:24navies and lawyers to argue for weeks about what is legal to inspect and what counts as an attack.
20:34Sometimes the theater moves even farther west. During Zelensky's visit to Ireland, five large
20:42military-style drones flew near an Irish naval vessel guarding his arrival. Irish authorities are now
20:50investigating it as a possible Russian intelligence operation launched from a ship in the Irish Sea.
20:58On paper, Ireland is a neutral state far from the front. In reality, it is part of the same symbolic
21:07battlefield. Similar methods and even more brutal extend beyond Europe. In Africa, the Wagner network
21:16and its successors have become tools for cheap influence. In the Central African Republic, Mali and
21:23elsewhere, Russian-linked fighters guard palaces, train local forces and run mining concessions. For the
21:31Kremlin, each of these deals can be turned into a TVC. The point is not even the control over some
21:40mine.
21:41It is the demonstration that Russia can still shape events thousands of kilometers away.
21:47If you look at this map of options – Baltic, Moldova, Central Asia, hybrid warfare in Europe and Africa –
21:56none of it
21:57makes sense if you think like an economist. Pipelines are cheaper to rent than to blow up and rebuild.
22:05Gas can be sold without annexing anyone. The war in Ukraine has already cost Russia hundreds of
22:12thousands of lives and overstretched its budget. But dictators like Putin do not go to war for resources.
22:20They go to war for status and survival inside their own pyramid. Napoleon chased glory and reshaped Europe
22:29long after it was clear that every new campaign has created more enemies than victories. Hitler
22:36treated expansion and leaving space in the East as a test of his strength and a way out of domestic
22:44pressures. Several years before starting a big war he talked about it not as an if but a when. Both
22:53men
22:53led their countries into disasters they could not control because pulling back was more dangerous
23:00for them than pushing forward. Putin sits in that same trap. His regime has told elites for two decades that
23:09Russia always wins and the West always blinks first. If he accepts a visible defeat in Ukraine or anywhere
23:19else, the whole story cracks. That is why talking about his next move is not fear-mongering, it's basic
23:28math in a system he's built. This is not about rational interests or long-term benefit. It is about keeping
23:35a frightened elite convinced that their boss is still in charge. So, the main question is not
23:43will he dare. The real question is whether neighbors, allies and societies are ready to notice the early
23:51moves, take them seriously and close off the easy options before they turn into another showcase triumph.
23:59So, I want to ask you, which direction feels the most vulnerable to you? And why? Is it NATO's eastern
24:09flank? Moldova's fragile politics? Or the vast, often overlooked chessboard of Central Asia? Tell me in the
24:18comments your insights shape these investigations. If this kind of long-form, independent analysis helps you
24:28understand the world more clearly. Please like the video, subscribe to the channel and share it with
24:36someone who still believes authoritarian wars follow logic. And if you want to help keep this work free
24:45from sponsors and gatekeepers, you can support it through PayPal, SuperThings or Think Tank membership.
24:51All links are in the description. Thank you for watching. Stay alert, stay curious, and take nothing for granted.
25:01you
25:03say
25:20why
Comments