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00:05Hidden amongst these snow-covered hills is a secretive institution home to a
00:14revolutionary machine that can harness physics so strange it sounds like magic.
00:21This is IBM's research facility. It's where some of the biggest breakthroughs
00:26and history of computer science have happened and probably going to be home to a few more
00:30because this is where they build quantum computers.
00:37Their potential is huge, promising breakthroughs in material science, medicine, fundamental
00:44physics and more. But there is a dark side because they will come with the ability to
00:50decrypt all internet communication. Experts say there is now a quantum arms race between
00:58the United States and its biggest economic rival, China.
01:05I'm Professor Hannah Fry, mathematician and writer. I want to know where quantum technology
01:12will take us. And with international security under threat, who will come out on top?
01:37This is the research headquarters for one of the oldest companies in tech, IBM. They've
01:45been inventing new computing technology here since the 1960s. It's like the Jetsons meets
01:51the Flintstones.
01:55Quantum scientist Olivia Lanes is showing me IBM's newest experimental machine.
02:02This big shiny behemoth is IBM Quantum System 2.
02:07It sounds like it's on. What is the big deal, though? I mean, why not just build an ordinary
02:12supercomputer?
02:13It's a totally different avenue. It's not just supercomputers, but better, or AI, but more
02:20powerful. It's an entirely different way of computing.
02:25The big difference is the computer's ability to harness the mysterious effects of quantum
02:31physics.
02:33Standard computers, they calculate by using billions of tiny little on and off switches known as
02:39bits. Now, these things, they're very reliable, they're very accurate, and they work together
02:44in sequence. So, if you ask a standard computer to solve a maze, it will do so by checking through
02:52every possible path, one by one, until it finds a solution. Now, depending on the size of the maze,
03:00that could take seconds or minutes, or potentially, for a really big maze, even years. A quantum computer,
03:07on the other hand, works a little bit differently.
03:09There, the bits are known as quantum bits, or qubits, and rather than just being on or off,
03:15a qubit can be held in something called a superposition, where it can be both on and off at the
03:23same
03:24time. Now, okay, I know that that doesn't really make a lot of sense, but unfortunately that is just
03:29how physics works down at the atomic level, so go with me. This bizarre ability of a qubit to be
03:35in
03:35two states at once means that a series of qubits can solve lots of calculations simultaneously.
03:42And so, if you ask a quantum computer to solve a maze, it means it can consider all possible routes
03:50at once, giving you the answer in an instant. It could allow a quantum computer to complete in
03:59minutes computations so complex that it would take today's supercomputers millions of years.
04:06But that's not the only reason they're a game changer for science.
04:11I think what it really comes down to is that nature is quantum mechanical. When you get down to
04:17molecular and atomic interactions, nature does not obey classical physics, so it's a very crude
04:22approximation. And if we really want to understand how nature evolves in time, we have to have a system
04:29that obeys quantum physics. So I guess this finally gives us the opportunity to do simulations down at
04:37the level of atoms. And when you have that, I mean, you can design drugs at the level of atoms.
04:46That's right. You can design materials, batteries. And we haven't had this before.
04:50We've never had that.
04:54I think when quantum computing comes up in conversation, people are excited about it,
04:58but they're excited about the amount of power it gives you, about how quickly you can do computations.
05:03Because, okay, sure, all of that stuff might be true. But we should be thinking of this as though
05:09someone has just invented the telescope. And all of a sudden, we can see and understand things
05:15at a scale that we just did not have access to before.
05:20That's the ambition, at least. Quantum computers cannot yet perform useful calculations better than a
05:27supercomputer. Because in practice, getting even a handful of qubits to give you a reliable answer
05:33is phenomenally difficult.
05:36Yeah. Now you go.
05:37And then you go straight to the ground.
05:38Oh my god. Whoa!
05:41This is IBM's lab, where they test out new hardware. A place where we can see the guts of the
05:48machine.
05:49Oh, that is extraordinary.
05:53This is what System 2 looks like inside?
05:55Yeah.
05:56What are we looking at then?
05:58I think a lot of people have a slight misconception and they see, you know, this whole
06:03gold shiny thing and they think, this is a quantum computer. That's actually not true.
06:08This is the quantum computer. So this tiny little thing, right? This is the Heron chip. This is the
06:15133 qubits that I am holding in the palm of my hand.
06:18How much is that worth?
06:20A lot.
06:21Don't drop it.
06:22I'm just going to try not to.
06:24The chip contains the qubits that carry out the computation. And it's fair to say they're a little
06:31fussy.
06:31We're trying to change the energy state of the qubit between zero and one in a very controlled
06:36way. So any type of outside energy that might change it slightly in a way, except for what
06:42we're trying to do, will break your algorithm and give you the wrong answer.
06:48Outside energy includes any heat. To preserve the delicate quantum state of the qubit, the chip
06:55must be kept extremely cold. This tangle of gold plated pipes and wires is in fact a cooling system
07:03that chills the chip to just above absolute zero.
07:06For comparison, the cosmic microwave background in space is way warmer. That's orders of magnitude warmer.
07:14Oh my goodness.
07:15So it is the coldest thing in the known universe.
07:18Which is incomprehensibly cold.
07:20But these guys like it.
07:22They like it.
07:23Focus on your work. Stop paying attention to any of the energy around you.
07:27That's right.
07:30IBM say they'll unlock quantum's full potential by 2033.
07:36As you can imagine, it's been an expensive endeavor.
07:40Do you have any idea how much IBM will have spent on this quantum program?
07:44We haven't broken out, but I think it's fair to say it's like obviously many billions of dollars
07:49of investment. You know, our company spends close to $7 billion a year in R&D, right?
07:54And today, in our world of technology, if you're not investing at that scale,
08:00it's very hard to be a global leader.
08:01But you do have competition, right?
08:03How much are you looking over your shoulder at what everyone else is doing?
08:06Oh, we pay keen attention, right, to the entire ecosystem.
08:09But look, we take the perspective, because we've been sort of leaders and pioneers of this field,
08:14is that we want an industry. Like, we don't want to be, you know, alone on this.
08:19How much do you collaborate with other companies,
08:21like Google and Microsoft, who are also in this space?
08:24We collaborate a lot externally.
08:27For us, collaborating on this is like at the heart of making an ecosystem.
08:32It's back to the idea of creating an industry.
08:35Do you collaborate with Chinese companies as well?
08:37No, we do not.
08:38Oh, go on.
08:40Well, I think we acknowledge the fact that in this technology, in quantum, right,
08:46but we're seeing it happen, by the way, in other areas, like semiconductors and so on.
08:51There is not only a big economic dimension, but there's a big national security implication as well.
08:57Quantum falls squarely within the category of, like, sensitive technologies from that perspective.
09:02How important is it for the US to be the leaders in this?
09:05It's critically important. And I think that that is recognized in a bipartisan manner.
09:11One of the things we're witnessing is that we've seen the elevation of technology
09:14to the same level of geostrategic importance as trade or military alliances.
09:20Quantum computing is, without a doubt, one of the top technologies that the United States needs to lead.
09:28For now, the United States maintains supremacy in the development of quantum computers.
09:35But its biggest rival is fast catching up.
09:52China are betting big.
09:55They've invested over $15 billion, more than three times any other country.
10:01They have dozens of new research institutes committed to quantum
10:05and hold more than half of all patents in quantum technology.
10:11Hey.
10:12Hi there.
10:13How are you doing?
10:15Security expert Ana Puglisi has been advising the US government on how not to fall behind.
10:21China really does view science and technology as a national asset.
10:26It talks about not leading, not just leading, but dominating in these key areas.
10:30Does the US not see science as a national asset as well?
10:34I don't think we have the same kind of comprehensive strategic plan that brings together all facets of
10:41society and really has that longer term investment.
10:45What we are facing is it's not an even and level playing field.
10:49Our researchers are essentially up against the funding of a nation state.
10:53What are we talking about here in terms of the magnitude of difference of funding?
10:56Some examples that folks have given me is, okay, I have a lab.
10:59I have five to six, maybe four to six graduate students in my lab at any given time.
11:05There, the equivalent labs have, you know, 50, 100 graduate students or postdocs.
11:12The US is hitting back.
11:15I have made sure that the most advanced American technologies can't be used in China.
11:22And thanks to our Chips and Science Act, the United States is investing more in research and
11:27development than ever before.
11:30Whoever is the first to realize the potential of quantum computers will wield incredible power.
11:38But it's a double-edged sword because a world with quantum computers could be a world without secrets.
11:47Pretty much all internet communication is based on scrambling it using a secret code,
11:53otherwise known as encryption. And a lot of it uses a very clever mathematical trick
11:58involving prime numbers. We do. You take two prime numbers, let's say 17 and 31, and then you
12:06multiply them together to give you a code. In this case, 527. Now that bit is very straightforward,
12:15very easy for computers to do that, multiply numbers together. What is much harder is if you
12:20only have the long number working out what those two secret primes were. The only way that you can do
12:29this with classical computers is by checking through all the prime numbers just to see if they work
12:35one after the other after the other. A common type of encryption, RSA, uses prime numbers that are
12:42hundreds of digits long. To crack those codes, it would take a conventional computer trillions of years.
12:51That's really the obstacle of encryption. It's not that it's impossible. It just takes a really, really long time.
12:57This is where quantum computing comes in because quantum computers using superposition can simultaneously
13:03run numerous calculations at the same time and can take something like this down to being crackable
13:12within just a few minutes.
13:19It means that encrypted data could be hacked in no time. Few are more afraid of a mass global data
13:28breach
13:29than the banking industry. Dr. Philip Interlura is head of quantum technology at HSBC.
13:39We process £3.5 trillion worth of payments every year, so cryptography is a big deal for us.
13:46How much of a catastrophe would this be if people just sat back and did nothing?
13:51Well, ultimately, you're going to have customers' accounts being breached, which means
13:55things like identity theft and fraudulent transactions. Money being stolen?
13:59Money being stolen. That's then going to roll into financial losses. Customers will lose money,
14:04the banks will lose money. But I think, ultimately, the biggest risk of all is the element of trust.
14:09If customers can't trust their bank to keep their accounts and their money secure, as well as their
14:16data, then it's kind of an existential risk. Yeah, I mean, that is a fundamental part of banking.
14:21Can you be absolutely sure that this hasn't happened already? I mean, okay, if I had a quantum computer,
14:26I could read everything. I'm not sure I would tell people about it. No, you probably wouldn't. I think
14:31it's very unlikely that anyone's got a quantum computer powerful enough right now to do this,
14:36but there may be something called a store now decrypt later or harvest now decrypt later type
14:40of attack. And this is kind of the idea that state actors or malicious entities right now can start
14:47intercepting our data and storing it and just keeping it ready for the time, the point in time,
14:53when a cryptographically relevant quantum computer arrives. Are we talking about national security
14:58consent here? Is that ultimately where the big worry is? That's probably the number one area
15:04that we should be concerned about because, you know, state actors are most likely going to target
15:11national security kind of infrastructure to scrape and decipher information. State secrets will be
15:17uncovered. You'll know who all the spies are. You'll know who all the spies are. If you suddenly
15:23lose that secrecy and that security, then it causes all sorts of vulnerabilities on a personal level,
15:29on a national level, from a security perspective, from a commercial perspective. And so, you know,
15:34this is a big, big deal. HSBC say that doing nothing is simply not an option. The bank has been
15:45testing
15:46a way to secure its data against an attack from quantum computers. Internet data today is sent by
15:54laser pulses in an optical fiber. This is Dr. Andrew Shields, head of quantum technology for Toshiba.
16:02In general, fiber networks are very secure, but they are vulnerable to tapping. If I introduce a small
16:10bend into the fiber, you can see some of the light is now leaking out. And actually, a hacker can
16:15use
16:16that. They can introduce a small bend to tap out some of the light and measure that to recover the
16:21data.
16:22So that's all you need then, is just access to the cable? Indeed, it's very straightforward. Goodness me.
16:29Andrew has built a device that utilizes the strange world of quantum physics to send data in a way he
16:36claims can never be hacked. It's called quantum key distribution.
16:44This is it? This is it, yes. What this box is doing is it's sending single photons through an optical
16:50fiber
16:51sensor into the BT network. And we use that to form encryption keys. And those encryption keys are
16:57then being used to secure data sent between here and the data center in Berkshire.
17:03The device generates a secret code using single particles of light, photons, which are sent one at a
17:11time down a fiber optic cable. A fundamental law of quantum physics is that if you observe a photon,
17:17you change its quantum state. And that means that if an eavesdropper tries to intercept the key,
17:24the code will be changed, rendering it unusable. The device already uses telecom company BT's existing
17:32fiber network to send sensitive files across London to a data center over 30 miles away.
17:40Tell me about the information that you're sending using this method at the moment then.
17:43So in the case of HSBC, it's financial data. But we've done other trials with hospitals,
17:49for instance, where they've been sending medical scan data, or with governments where they've been
17:55sending some government data. Do you feel this sense of urgency for companies then, even though we're
17:59not quite there yet with quantum computers? Yes, they absolutely are. There's an increasing
18:04realization that the quantum computer is coming. How far away do you reckon it is?
18:09Well, no, that's a very difficult question to answer. If I was a betting man, maybe I would say
18:14five to seven years.
18:19There are no maybes here. It's not if this is going to happen. It's when it's going to happen.
18:25And it's the total acceptance that when it happens, our existing communication systems are no longer fit
18:33for purpose. And that puts you in a position where you have no choice, no choice but to find something
18:42else that works and is secure. Some have made more progress than others.
18:51In 2016, China shocked the world by launching a satellite capable of sending quantum keys over far
19:00greater distances than fibre optics. It's part of a wider quantum network that China has built,
19:08connecting banks, government and industry across the country, leaving other nations scrambling to catch up.
19:23On the gleaming streets of Singapore, the quantum revolution has found fertile ground. Scientists here
19:31want to build an unhackable network that can be commercialized so anyone can use it.
19:41Professor Alexander Ling runs the Centre for Quantum Technologies at the National University of Singapore.
19:48A government-funded group of scientists working on all sorts of quantum technology.
19:55They told me that I would get to see some nano satellites.
19:58OK.
19:59I think this is even more nano than I was expecting.
20:02This is over 200 times lighter than China's quantum satellite.
20:08OK, tell me about the experiment then. What's the big aim?
20:11The big goal over here is we want to build a global network
20:14network where we can actually distribute quantum signals around the world.
20:18We can distribute quantum signals using optical fibre, except that there's a distance limit to it.
20:23We can't repeat those quantum signals. So we think that if you have satellites with optical fibre networks,
20:31you can actually build a more comprehensive network around the world.
20:35So then when you send up a rocket, you presumably have like a number of these, you sort of put
20:39them out where you want to be.
20:40Indeed, indeed, yes. What we're doing in Singapore is to test whether similar technology can go on much smaller satellites.
20:48You can imagine that if it works, you can have a fleet of smaller satellites that's more cost-effective,
20:55and that makes the deployment of such a system more likely.
20:59His plan is to fire single photons into space and back again via a network of satellites and telescopes.
21:08These quantum keys would provide unhackable global communications.
21:14So this is your fancy photon catcher?
21:16That's right. This is the telescope that's going to receive the signals from the satellite.
21:22Long distance communication is just one part of Professor Ling's work.
21:27They also collaborate with US and Chinese companies.
21:33Quantum technology was developed in an era when international relations was more relaxed,
21:39let's put it that way. It started in the late 80s, early 90s,
21:44and everyone was open to having an exchange of people and ideas at that time.
21:48Has that desire for collaboration continued or has it been sort of shut down a bit more
21:53because of the geopolitical situation we find ourselves in?
21:56I think definitely everyone's aware that there's tension, geopolitical tensions,
22:01and people from time to time talk about export controls and things like that.
22:07Everybody seems to have high expectations for when quantum technology will deliver those benefits.
22:14If you come in with controls too early, before a lot of problems are worked out,
22:19you are probably going to be pushing the date of deployment,
22:24the date when you see those benefits, much further into the future.
22:28You're kind of squashing the innovation as it's happening.
22:30That's right.
22:37Scientists understand how quantum computers could supercharge their discoveries.
22:41Banks and governments see the risks and the potential for economic growth.
22:47But will a high-stakes jewel for supremacy really define the future of global power?
22:55I think the rhetoric around this is always framed as a quantum race, right, between
23:00two giant superpowers who are throwing everything they have at it.
23:05But I sort of don't think that this is like races that we've had before.
23:09I don't think this is like the space race or the nuclear arms race,
23:12because I don't think that we're in a situation where you can only have one winner.
23:17The quantum future is about building a scientific tool
23:23that allows us to see and understand the universe
23:27down at the level of atoms in a way that we have just never had access to before.
23:32And okay, maybe I'm just being optimistic, but I think that that is something that all of humanity will stand
23:39to benefit from.
23:39Thank you very much.
23:41Okay.