00:00Economist Dr. Raja Hussain does not see the country's fiscal deficit reversing until 2014.
00:06He argued that the country's economic challenges are too deep to be resolved by an increase in natural gas production
00:13alone.
00:15Dr. Hussain's warning comes as the government projects a fiscal deficit of $3.639 billion, or 2.1% of
00:25gross domestic product, for the 2027 fiscal year.
00:30He made the comments at the Rotary Port of Spain West's low-hanging options to increase foreign exchange inflows in
00:37TNT discussion at Cascadia earlier yesterday.
00:41Today we are crawling, we are crawling. Our economy is around the 7th worst performing in the world from 2015
00:47to 2025 in terms of real GDP growth.
00:50The 7th worst out of 196 countries. Next slide.
00:56The fiscal balance, well, you could see, look at the fiscal balance. We cannot run this country without a fiscal
01:01deficit, and I can't see that reversing until 2040. I can't.
01:05Hussain was referencing the government's U.S. $5 billion target for increasing exports of goods and services, stated in the
01:142026-2027 budget.
01:17He argued that TNT had failed to adequately manage the proceeds of its energy boom, spending heavily while accumulating substantial
01:26external debt.
01:27He said the country received approximately U.S. $63 billion in energy rents between 2000 and 2026, but saved only
01:38about U.S. $3 billion in the Heritage and Stabilization Fund, excluding investment income.
01:46We saved only about U.S. $3 billion in the HSF. The rest of money in the HSF is investment
01:52income, so that the majority of money we spent it out, and then we borrowed $140 billion because we weren't
01:59satisfied with the expenditure.
02:00Hussain also criticized the growth in transfers and subsidies, which he said now accounted for approximately 53% of total
02:09government expenditure.
02:10He argued that the expansion of government spending had affected the structure of production, contributing to a shift away from
02:18activities that generate foreign exchange.
02:21He added that the foreign exchange outlook remained challenging and urged businesses and consumers to use U.S. dollars carefully,
02:31warning that an increase in gas output would not automatically translate into a substantial improvement in foreign exchange availability.
02:40Hussain also highlighted the decline in labor force participation, which he said had fallen from approximately 63% in 2003
02:50to 55%.
02:52He said the economically inactive population was approaching 500,000, a development that placed additional pressure on the country's productive
03:03capacity.
03:04Vishana Pagu, TV6 News.
