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Kenya's Flood Fears | Heat and Drought
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00:06This is DW News Africa and I am Eddie Micah Jr. Coming up, is Kenya prepared for the return
00:13of El Nino? After deadly rains in recent years, Nairobi is racing to stop its rivers from
00:19overflowing. But will it be enough to protect people?
00:26And it's not just East Africa. As El Nino strengthens, South Africa's farmers are preparing for a
00:32summer of extreme heat and drought.
00:48Fladen is already hitting parts of Kenya's coast with heavy rains in Mombasa as East Africa
00:53braces for a potentially powerful El Nino season. Nairobi has suffered deadly floods in recent years,
01:00especially developments on low-lying land. Now, the city is racing to strengthen flat defenses
01:06before the heaviest rains arrive. Sela Onyeko reports.
01:14In Nairobi, when it rains, it can pour. And the upcoming El Nino season has people worried. In recent
01:21times, heavy rains have burst river banks, destroyed houses, and they've left dozens of people dead.
01:28Back in March this year, this bus driver had to spend the night on the road after his bus
01:33got cut off by the waters. He told us he was lucky to survive.
01:40We had bumper-to-bumper traffic. The road was full of cars, and then the river started swelling and
01:49overflowing. It just kept on raining and raining until the water came up. It came up to here. Up to
01:56here.
01:59I was inside the bus with my conductor, and we thought, we're going to die. That's it.
02:05Now, the rains are coming again. And around Nairobi, preparations are ongoing. In a last-minute
02:12scramble, the city is renewing its roadside drainage, clearing rubbish, and preparing for
02:17what the government has called a national security risk, the heavy El Nino rains. The biggest project,
02:23however, is the city's river system restoration. Rivers Commissioner Mumu Musuwa is one of the people
02:30in charge. Nairobi is largely within a floodplain, and the rivers play a very big part in that
02:39hydrological cycle. And we have to deal with two constraints. One is that, for the most part,
02:48where you've got the floodplain areas, you should not have development, because when the rivers flood,
02:54they swell. It's an estimated 50 billion shilling or 300 million euro undertaking, which involves
03:02clearing the river's natural floodplains, widening their path, and building 27-kilometer-long sewer lines
03:09along either side of the Nairobi river, so that wastewater no longer flows into it.
03:14The problem is Nairobi's three main rivers, the Nairobi, Gong, and Madhari, and their tributaries,
03:21flow right through the dense city center, past businesses and housing, and Nairobi's biggest dump
03:27site. Nairobi's rivers have become polluted water bodies, and according to Musuwa, almost half of
03:33the river water in the dry season is raw sewage. The city has not had the right level of infrastructure
03:42to deal with that, and whatever has been built before in many sections along the river has been
03:49built in the wrong place. If you look at the old master plans, most of the buildings around this
03:55area were actually set back or built 30 meters away from the river, because there was an acknowledgement
04:00that this was a floodplain area. The right time to upgrade Nairobi's rivers and drainage, says Musuwa,
04:06would have been 30 years back. As short-term measures, the city says they've mapped flood hot spots
04:12and informed communities of the potential risks. Yet these are places where people live and work.
04:18In a low-income neighborhood, further downstream, the Nairobi river restoration is already taking shape.
04:24Thirty meters either side of the river have been cleared. At this point, the river has already been
04:29widened and the banks reinforced. The people who lived here have been forced to move away from the river,
04:35which will hopefully prevent the loss of life that we've seen in the past. The new path and sewer line
04:41beneath it mark the edge of the demolished zone. All of this area, there were houses all the way from
04:50there. So 2024 when it rained, those houses were flooded, the water came up to here.
05:00The residents we meet say they're glad the city is upgrading the area, yet for many here who were
05:05evicted with little notice, it was also hard to start from scratch. It was hard. I can't say it was
05:12easy. Moving from over there to here was a problem. You wonder where you're going to move with your kids,
05:19your business. Sometimes they don't even give you notice. They'll tell you once. The next time,
05:30they'll come at night and they'll tell you you're moving now.
05:38It's good because this time, if El Nino comes, people can't be carried away by the floods.
05:43And it's even brought work to the area. There are security guards, casual and construction workers.
05:50According to climate scientists, El Nino could mean storms and heavy rainfall throughout East Africa.
05:56At the National Forecasting Center of Kenya's Metrological Authority,
06:00climate scientist Joyce Kimutai is monitoring weather patterns with concern.
06:06Higher temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, she explains, are what is causing extreme
06:10weather conditions around the world.
06:13So the question is not about whether El Nino is happening, because it's already happening.
06:16You can see, this is what we mean actually. It's the warming of the central Pacific.
06:19This is the coast of Peru. This is South America, the coast of Peru. And you can see Australia over
06:24here. And this is the Pacific Ocean. And we're already seeing these massive warming. So you can
06:30see that it's as high as 30 degrees, 29 degrees. So basically, with this heat being released,
06:37it means that the systems that control the weather of East Africa will also definitely be affected.
06:44Kimtai and her colleagues are updating the forecasts on a daily basis. But she says,
06:49the signs point to East Africa's usual wet season being longer and more extreme,
06:54with up to 800 millimeters of rainfall in areas like Nairobi.
06:58It wouldn't just be like raining from morning to evening every day. Because also that's the
07:07sort of a word of caution that we want to throw out there, that it's when we say above normal
07:11rainfall, it's El Nino, it's a super El Nino. But it could just be we have an old week that
07:15is dry,
07:15and then we have another week that is really wet, where we have two days of like really a lot
07:20of
07:21rainfall. And so this preparedness is very important. Preparedness for the next months,
07:27but also the coming years. Because if predictions are right, extreme weather events could become
07:32more frequent as global temperatures rise. All right, for more on this, let's bring in Dr. Ahmed
07:40Idris, Secretary General of the Kenya Red Cross Society. Hello and welcome to the program, sir. So
07:47Kenya is bracing for heavy El Nino rains in the coming months. From what you're seeing,
07:53how serious is the risk this season compared to previous other seasons?
07:59Thank you for the conversation. One day, the risk is extremely high, much higher than the
08:04previous rainy season. And one way of understanding is looking at the forecast for the rainfall.
08:09We have about 95% of the country with a prediction of an above normal rainfall, which means
08:16only 5% of the total area of Kenya will be receiving normal rainfall. The easiest way of
08:23interpreting above normal and normal rainfall is that basically throughout the rain season,
08:29we will be receiving more than what we ordinarily receive, more than what our water and drainage
08:35system are used to. So the negative impact of a lot of rain over a period, short periods of time,
08:42is likely to have serious risks and consequences to the communities.
08:47Right. I mean, it sounds serious, what you're describing. So we've seen some efforts being made
08:53to improve drainage and, you know, restore river corridors. Will such measures
08:59make a meaningful difference this rainy season, you think?
09:04So first, the positive thing to this particular season is we have a bit of commitment from the
09:08various government authorities, both the national and the local governments, to take certain
09:14early action to reduce the risk to communities. So it's for us, we take the opportunity to congratulate
09:21all the stakeholders for taking decisive, you know, early action, early steps to reduce the impact of the
09:28floods. So the answer is yes and no. Most definitely, any attempt to clear drainage system will improve
09:35the movement of water across the cities, across our, you know, the total land surface of the country.
09:43Overall improvement in drainage means there'll be less stagnant water, and if there's less
09:47stagnant water, it means there's less risk of flooding. So certainly it makes a difference.
09:53In Nairobi alone, I think we, you know, some of the preliminary effort shows, you know, tons and tons of
10:00trucks, truckloads of garbage has been removed from the drainage system, clearing the overall potential for
10:06water flow within the city. However, unfortunately, some of these actions are not able to reverse the long-term
10:14consequences of development planning or lack of proper planning in development. People who are
10:20built on drainage pathways, people who are built on waterways, there are structures that are still
10:27blocking important drainage points across the city of Nairobi and many other cities across the country.
10:35So it's a yes and no answer.
10:38Right. Is there one area where you feel Kenya is still not sufficiently prepared? I mean,
10:43you've mentioned earlier there are a lot of things that still need to be done, like people building
10:48in flat-prone areas and all of that. But is there one particular area you feel Kenya needs to do
10:54more
10:54to be sufficiently prepared now? I think we need to prepare our infrastructure in the long term
11:01to climate-proof them. What happens in the country is every time we receive rainfall of this pattern,
11:09roads are washed away, bridges are washed away. We have to look at how prepared we are, how our
11:15infrastructure is well prepared to be able to cope with future rain seasons. So I think we've come a
11:21long way in terms of preparedness. We've come a long way as a country in terms of how we act
11:27on early
11:27warning information. But the biggest weakness that we have is our infrastructure development is still not
11:33climate-proof. And so we're likely to have many communities and individuals stranded because
11:38roads are washed away. Just the last two days, we received some rainfall in the northern part of the
11:43country. And, you know, culverts that were moving waters away from communities were washed up. We had some of
11:51the roads that were blocked. The road between Takaba in Mandera and Moyale was cut off and communities
11:57couldn't be able to move. So I think that is where our main weakness will be as a country.
12:01Right. But that's long term, which is very important because, to be honest, we don't have to talk about
12:05this every single year. So ahead of these heavy rainfall that is expected in, what, some months to
12:12come, what kind of action or support do you need from the government now to help save lives ahead of
12:19the rains? Oh, actually, the rains is a few days away. We're expecting that they will be starting within
12:25the next two weeks. The peak of the rain will be in the month of November. Some of the actions
12:31that
12:31need to be taken is we still have communities that are settled too close to waterways, especially rivers,
12:37communities that are settled in riparian sections that ought not to have houses or structures. We still
12:46need, you know, the individuals, these families to move away because the waters pose huge risk to them.
12:55That's one area. And I think it's an area that is politically sensitive. So we have a number of
13:01the countries that have not taken decisive action in encouraging these communities to move away. And for
13:07those communities that are not able to move away, I think there has to be certain action taken to,
13:12you know, what will you say, have a level of eviction to save our grounds. So that's an area that
13:19we
13:20continue to work with the government. And if you look at the media more recently, a number of county
13:24governments have urged residents to move or they will be forcibly moved. Unfortunately, it will be
13:31unfortunate that communities have to be forcibly moved. But for this one to save their lives, to save,
13:36you know, their properties, it is essential that these actions are taken.
13:41Right. Dr. Ahmed Idris, Secretary General of the Kenya Red Cross Society. Thank you very much.
13:48Thank you for having me.
13:50Right. So as Africa braces for more extreme weather, two terms keep coming up, El Nino and climate change.
13:58Now, they are related, but they are not the same. Climate change is the long-term warming of the planet.
14:04El Nino is a natural climate pattern that can give temperatures an extra bump, shifting rainfall
14:12and bringing floods to some places and droughts to others. It doesn't drive climate change,
14:18but it can make its effects worse. South Africa's farmers are preparing for a summer of heat and
14:26drought as El Nino strengthens in the Pacific. Temperatures have already topped 30 degrees Celsius
14:32in parts of the country. Forecasters warn the climate pattern could bring less rain and more heat waves,
14:38raising concerns for crops and livestock. So how are farmers preparing for the months ahead?
14:45DW's Diane Hawker Kalubi visited an urban smallholding.
14:50Some of these latest plants are not going to make it into a salad.
15:00The leaves have been damaged by heat, and they won't grow any larger. They'll end up on the
15:06compost heap or be fed to the animals. The Sioyi Sile Indlala urban farm is located on the grounds of
15:14a
15:14primary school in Soweto. It serves as an academy for young farmers who want to learn about fresh produce.
15:21But the prospective farmers now have something new to learn about, how El Nino will affect their crops.
15:28Like lettuce, the rabbits are suffering from the heat.
15:32Now about four of our rabbits died, and then we have told the students when they come here,
15:39they must check the water, they must check how's the temperature, where the rabbits are, meaning it is
15:46very hot. But we need to keep our livestock to check it all the time that there's water there,
15:53it is cooler there, where they are. Weather forecasters say El Nino will likely affect farming
16:03communities across southern Africa. The El Nino climate pattern began in June and is expected to
16:09last throughout South Africa's spring and summer months into February 2027, where the forecasters
16:16predict drought conditions caused by extreme heat and disrupted rainfall. The forecasts also point
16:24to heat waves when extremely hot weather lasts several days. Heat is really, I think, a real risk. Causing stress
16:36on crop production,
16:38cattle, and then of course also on humans, you know, people working outside. That is also an area of real
16:46concern,
16:47and where measures can be taken and applied to secure health for outside workers.
16:59To ensure his crops still prosper, Mkize has had to update his methods. He's moving more plants under
17:06protective nets and increasing the watering schedule. When it comes to new plants, Mkize also has a plan.
17:14This trench is part of Mkize's solution to the coming heat of the El Nino season. His team puts
17:21down cardboard boxes and then adds food scraps, bones, and mulch to ensure that the soil retains
17:28more water when they plant. It's a longer process and definitely more labor intensive, but it's the only
17:35way that he can ensure that his crops make it to the market. Temperatures could reach above 35 degrees
17:43Celsius in December and January. So the Soyisile Indlala team is also considering changing the
17:49mixture of plants it grows to better accommodate the expected heat. We need to check which crops
17:56there will be better for this kind of season, but we know that your spinach can be resilient to that
18:03and
18:03then we know that onions they can be good, the beetroot they can be good, and then yeah some other
18:08crops that we
18:09used to eat that we are using all the time like the tomatoes. I think they will love the sun.
18:15Mkize hopes these changes will help him weather the El Nino climate pattern and says a consistent
18:22water supply will be vital to keeping the farm's plants and animals alive.
18:28For more on what El Nino means for South African agriculture and food security, we're joined by
18:34Wandile Silobo, South Africa's presidential envoy on agriculture and land. Hello and welcome
18:40to the program, sir. So South Africa, they came through the last El Nino better than many people
18:48expected. Was that good preparation, good luck, or a bit of both?
18:55It was a good fortune because the last one was not as intense as some people anticipated,
19:02but of course when you look through recent history there have been difficult El Nino years. I think
19:09back 2015-16 that was one of the harshest El Ninos, but of course on what we are expecting in
19:17this
19:17coming season, we hear from various meteorologists that it will look like what we experienced
19:24in the early 90s. And we know that such a strong El Nino, not only for South Africa but Southern
19:31Africa, it means that there's a high likelihood of a drought. So really a challenging period ahead of
19:38us for farmers and some households. Right. When you look at previous El Ninos that your country,
19:44South Africa has been going through, where did people feel the impact the most? Are we talking on
19:49the farms, food prices? Where was it felt the most? It gets to be felt across the chain, but it
19:58depends
19:59on the time. Farmers are the first to feel the impact, but over the coming months you tend to see
20:07then that impact through rising food prices. But I would say for 2026-27 season, we are approaching
20:15this El Nino much more prepared than any in the recent past. And that is because we are just now
20:23ending a season of abundance in agriculture where we were in the opposite cycle of La Nina, which brought
20:31up above normal rainfall to an extent that, for example, for stable grain such as maize or corn,
20:37South Africa has the largest harvest in history, about 17.5 million tons, remembering then that our
20:46annual consumption is just about 12 million tons. And it's also a year of abundance even in other
20:53major agricultural producers in the region. I'm thinking here, Zambia and a couple of others. So
20:59this means then that as we approach the new season, we will start it with reasonably ample
21:04supplies and stocks that will support the food supplies for households. The second and important
21:11component about this time around is that the summer rains of the 2020-526 season were much more prolonged
21:19than usual. And it rained instead of ending in March, as it's a normal occurrence in Southern Africa,
21:25but all the way through to May, which means then that soil moisture and dam levels are fairly healthy,
21:31and that will support crops and vegetation at the start of the season. And for those that are
21:37irrigating, which again, further underscores the point that we are reasonably well prepared this time
21:43around, all really thanks to nature on why we are in this position that we are in, in terms of
21:48healthy
21:49supplies. Right. I mean, that is good news. That's good to know. It's good for food security in South
21:56Africa and the region. We visited an urban farm in Soweto for our report, which really led me to
22:04wanted to find out from you, and maybe that's already contributed to the food security you're enjoying
22:09now. Can small scale and urban agriculture play a meaningful role in food security?
22:16They are critical when we are thinking about regional and household food security,
22:23but appreciating the fact that the farmers in South Africa are not only planting for South Africa,
22:28but they have to ensure that the surplus serves the region. You will recall that South Africa exports
22:35about 55% of the produce that it produces, which means then it's critical that even the large scale
22:41producers are able to have healthy supplies to help in the region. But certainly, small holder
22:46farmers for regional food security, they are key. And they are also one of those that feel the impact
22:53of droughts and climatic changes much more harshly because they don't have others, their water systems
23:00to irrigate and do other stuff that if you are in a large scale entity, you're able to do. For
23:05example,
23:06in commercial fruits and vegetables in South Africa, we irrigate everything and our dam levels at the
23:12moment are plus 90% full, which means we'll be able to irrigate. But if you are reasonably small
23:18scale and also the water system in your regions are not as abundant, then that means then that you will
23:25be one of the first to actually experience some of these difficulties. This is all to say at a national
23:31level, the picture looks promising. But when you look at a micro level, experiences differ region by
23:37region and farmer to farmer. Right. So what's the biggest lesson from the last El Nino that policy
23:47makers still haven't fully acted on? Because that will make it a perfect situation and nothing is
23:53perfect as we know, right? In my role, for example, as the South African president's envoy
24:00on agriculture and land, one of the conversations that we were having this week was how we haven't
24:07moved with speed on strengthening our infrastructure when it comes to water. The most difficult thing,
24:13which was painful to look at when we were looking at the data, was realizing that probably 30%
24:19of the water from our dams is wasted before it reaches the farm because of the infrastructure
24:26that needs a bit of upgrading. So that's the area that would be intensifying in South Africa.
24:31But now thinking beyond the South African borders, as an African thinking about our region, one of the
24:37things that we continue to encourage our neighbors to do is to say, let us embrace technology when it comes
24:43to seed breeding. So that if there are seed cultivars that can withstand harsh climatic conditions,
24:49Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, they must be able to allow the farmers in those countries to be able to
24:56capitalize on those cultivars. Because we've certainly seen that South Africa has benefited from technology.
25:02I'll give you a quick example. In 2024, we were hit by an El Nino, but much more milder one
25:12in the
25:13Southern Africa region. Zimbabwe lost 60% of its maize crop. Zambia lost 50% of its maize crop.
25:21South Africa lost only 21%. The only difference between South Africa and other regions were those
25:27cultivars that South Africa is accessing, which I continue to urge our colleagues across the region
25:32to consider in their policy adjustments. Right. Wandele Silobu, thank you very much for joining us and
25:40sharing your insights with us. Thank you. All right. And with that, we are up to date.
25:49That's all for now. For more of our stories, go to dw.com slash Africa or visit us on social
25:55media.
25:55We'll see you next time. Bye for now.
26:11We'll see you next time.