00:00Hello and welcome, you are watching Good Returns, I am with you, I am with Arnima Jovedi.
00:037 October 2026, it is a very important day for Indian economy and markets.
00:09Because February 2023, today on October 2026, RBI has made a rate high.
00:18Now, let's see what happened before.
00:21February 2023 and October 2026, this time 4 times RBI has made a rate cut.
00:28And now, let's see what happens after the rate hike.
00:33We don't need to explain a lot of detail in detail, because we are all aware of geopolitical tensions.
00:40But what is the rate hike effect on Indian economy, Bazaar, Commodity market?
00:48This is all about to understand.
00:50And especially, this rate hike effect on our JEP and what will happen to you?
00:57Một-một-một-một-dėr pere dèr pere dikes emis aapki berdnay wala hai.
01:00Ya to loan ka tenure on aipka berdnay wala hai.
01:03Yarni, agar ám ádmi ke liharas se kahen, to jeb per jhrebbe to laga hai.
01:08Lekin, agar investment ke dore pere dèkhe, आpne kooi fix deposit kar rakhha hai,
01:11kooi FD ban wai hai, too waha pere apko mil jayega iska benefit.
01:15Now we have to explain what to your rate hike, but in this video we will not only talk about
01:26our investments, but we need to understand that the economy is where to stand.
01:34In this video we have to explain what to your rate hike, and with this rate hike RBI has changed
01:41the stance of neutral and calibrated tightening.
01:45So first let's talk about RBI's monetary policy.
01:54We have to explain what to your rate hike, but the Reserve Bank of India has 25% of business
01:58points, 0.25% of this rate hike, and with this rate hike is 5.50% of this rate
02:07hike.
02:07We have to explain what to your rate hike, and with this rate hike, we have to explain what to
02:18your rate hike.
02:18This stance was neutral, and now it has to be calibrated tightening.
02:26There will be some speed, RBI will see, to see that the inflation is the biggest problem.
02:33This is the biggest problem of the economy, which is the biggest problem of geopolitical tensions.
02:39We have to explain that in India, which is the biggest problem of the economy of the economy, which is
02:49the biggest problem of the economy.
02:53His approach to the economy of the economy, which is the biggest problem of the economy.
02:57The focus of the economy on inflationary pressures, which we have to say is the biggest why we have to.
03:06tighten करने की जरूरत है यहां पर
03:09सक्ती करने की जरूरत है
03:10इसके अलावा SDF rate को 5.25%
03:13पर adjust किया गया है और
03:14marginal standing facility यानि
03:16emissive range और bank rate को
03:185.75% कर दिया गया है
03:21संजमल उत्रों का यह भी कहना है
03:22कि इसमें global inflation पर
03:24सक नज़ा रखी जा रही है क्योंकि
03:26इसके आगे भी बढ़ने का
03:28अनुमान है और central bank's
03:29monetary policy को tighten करने की यहाँ पर
03:31जरूरत है अब आगे का
03:33discussion हम करेंगे एक बेहत
03:35खास महमान के साथ हमारे साथ
03:37यहाँ पर इस समय जुड़े हुए है
03:39dr. janak raj जो है former executive
03:41director of reserve bank of india
03:43समझते हैं dr. janak raj से
03:45कि क्या कुछ इस monetary policy में
03:47निकल करके आया जिस पर ध्यान देने
03:49की जरूरत है और कहां पर
03:51misses हुए हैं कहां पर इस समय
03:53loopholes हैं जहां पर अभी और
03:55RBI को काम करने की जरूरत है
03:57हमारे साथ इस समय आपर मुझूद है
03:59dr. janak raj former executive
04:01director of reserve bank of india
04:03sir welcome to good returns
04:04yeah thank you thank you
04:07sir calibrated
04:09tightening stance in RBI policy
04:12यह term थोड़ा detail में आप से
04:14समझने की कोशिश करेंगे
04:15जब हमने इसके बारे में थोड़ा
04:17research किया तो हमें पता चला कि
04:19October 2018 में last time
04:21यह stance यूज किया था
04:23RBI ने आज फिर से क्यों
04:25अपनाया गया है और क्या
04:27यह policy balanced policy
04:29है आप इसको कैसे देख रहे है
04:36इसका specific meaning है मैं आपको समझा देता हूं इससे पहले जो
04:41stance था वो neutral था जी तो stance का मतलब है कि
04:44reserve bank आने वाले टाइम में
04:47जहां तो interest rate बढ़ा सकता है या उसको
04:50hold पे रख सकता है या कम कर सकता है
04:53neutral stance का मतलब ही होता है कि reserve bank
04:55has lot of flexibility वो depending कोन ता
04:58data होएगा reserve bank के पास
05:00they will decide कि उनको rate बढ़ाना है या
05:04कम करना है या hold पे रखना है वो था neutral stance
05:07अभी calibrated tightening इसका मतलब ही है कि reserve bank
05:10आने वाले दिनों में आने वाले policies में जब
05:13तक यह stance change नहीं हो जाता तो reserve bank policy
05:17में या तो pause करेगा या rate को बढ़ाएगा अभी यहां
05:23से रेत कंव रो सकता जब तक आगला सांस चेंग नहीं होता इसका मतलब इक
05:28rate tightening means ki reserve bank will take tightening means ki interest rate but it means
05:34ki it will not be like every policy reserve bank will break the will raise the rate this
05:39means that reserve bank will assess the situation carefully and decide whether it has to raise the
05:45rate or it has to pause that's what it basically means yeah sir another question which i want to
05:52add this balance policy is called twenty five basis point balance policy in the sense that
05:58the policy is inflation to keep you know if you see the quarterly number also q2
06:21ka number tha 4.7 abhi 4.9 ho gaya q3 ka number tha 5.9 wo bhi 6 percent
06:27ho gaya q4 ka number
06:30tha 5.5 abhi 5.7 percent ho gaya or q1 ka 27 28 ka jo number tha 5.3
06:36percent tha
06:37abhi wa 5.6 percent ho gaya q3 ka jay jay jay jay jay jay jay jay jay jay jo
07:36and this one is Wingate
07:37Ah, see, this is 7.1, the growth projection is a major, because this is Q1.
07:45The number of the number of the number was given, it was 6.7, the total of the year.
07:56So, this is Q1.
07:57The number of the number of the number of the number was given, which was 7.8.
08:10foreign
08:19foreign
08:21foreign
08:21that there is no pricing power. So now, the second round, if you look at the core inflation,
08:31the core inflation, the core inflation, the core inflation, the other things, the food and
08:37fuel, the other things, the other things, like gold, silver, if you look at the core,
08:43the core, the 4% is quite low. The second round effect is not the risk.
09:15I don't know what the risk is. The second round effect is more than the risk.
09:18The second round effect is more than the risk.
09:19The second round effect is more than the risk.
09:50We have to be on guard.
10:17The second round effect is more than the risk.
10:50It is more than the risk.
10:57foreign
11:28there is no issue of inflation.
11:31We hear that crude prices are on top of the time.
11:36Today the RBI has mentioned that the monsoon has been on the issue.
11:41The high energy prices are discussed.
11:45The supply side of the pressures has been on the issue.
11:56foreign
12:02foreign
12:18gasoline, there are 9 dollars per gallon, so all the places are big, this is a global problem,
12:31you can't do anything, you can't do anything, but you can't do anything, so you can't do anything,
12:47but the monetary policy is the second round effect, like if supplies come,
12:56then the prices are increasing, but the wages are increasing, when the wages are increasing,
13:02if companies increase the wages, they will recover the prices, the wage spiral,
13:10the wages are increasing, now the wages are increasing, but in the coming time,
13:18this is a very big risk, so this is a very important thing,
13:22that is a very important thing, so this is a very important thing,
13:48the way the wages are increasing, so the wages should be linked to external benchmark,
14:24I don't know.
14:47I know limited time and I will do two hours later because I want to miss this chance.
14:54First of all, there is a concern about the price of the rupee.
14:57How are you seeing that rupee can depreciate more?
15:03Look, the rupee of the pressure in the U.S.
15:07Not only U.S, but also the bond yields are increased.
15:17Foreign portfolio investors or foreign portfolio investors,
15:22they are taking money from our country.
15:25Because the rate is more than the price.
15:28If they are 5% of the U.S. in the U.S.
15:37So if you look at the risk reward,
15:43you don't think it's good to invest in India.
15:47Because they are going to pay for quite a long time.
15:50So the bond yields are more than the risk.
15:52Reserve Bank has increased.
15:54The interest rate has increased.
16:00The gap is not increased.
16:02The rate is not increased.
16:04So if the sum that's the risk of the price,
16:06the price goes by number of other countries,
16:10the Fed is not increased.
16:18The risk of the U.S is increased.
16:22The response rate of the U.S.
16:29It's really significant.
16:32If the Fed doesn't take the risk,
16:33it is regarded as the risk.
16:37Okay, sir, from your experience, MPC's guidance, what is the clarity of the market and economy?
16:48को कैसे तरीके का गाइडेंस है देखिए जो गाइडेंस है आप देखिए गाइडेंस को आपको दो चीज़ों से देखना पड़े
16:55एक तुनकी ग्रोथ की क्या प्रजेक्शन है तो ग्रोथ बढ़ा दिया है और काफी बार बोला कि हमारी
17:02एकॉनोमी रिजिलियंट है वह भी बाकिन आप देखेंगे तो उससे वारी एकॉनोमी रिजिलियंट है जो 7.8 पर संग्रोथ आया
17:10तो आइवाज सब्सक्राइज बोला एकॉनमी रिजिल्ट सो था वह हमें उससे कमफर्ट लेना चाहिए कि हमारी अच्छा कर रही है
17:20तो आने �
17:36सब्सक्राइब करना पड़ेगा जब होता तो अब देखने वाली बात यह है कि यह जो आयल के प्राइस कितनी देर
17:46तक इस लेवल पर रहते हैं और यह सबसे बड़ा खात्रा मेरे इसाब से को यानि सर आर्विया मान चुका
17:53है कि अभी ग्लोबल फ्रंट पे अगर देखा ज
18:01करने जरी निजरी है वो डिपेंड करता है यह आयल प्रैसे और अल्द नहीं कर सकता लेकिन ओल प्रैसे सब्सक्राइब
18:19चलती रहे
18:26प्रैसे …
18:32Thank you so much, sir, thank you so much.
