00:00If I look at the growth pace of the economy, we seem to be growing at basically a trend rate.
00:05The labor market looks stable.
00:06You can find some indicators like the U6 rate, for example,
00:10that have shown tightening labor market and improving labor market or continuing claims.
00:16You can look at some indicators like the conference board's measure of job availability
00:21that would say the labor market is loosening.
00:23If I take an average, it's approximately stable.
00:26We don't need a lot of hikes from here, yes.
00:29And we did push back the next move and final move in our forecast from the Fed from October to
00:37December
00:37on the heels of the PCE numbers and today's employment numbers, I think, push in that same direction
00:44that it's not, we don't need a lot of monetary tightening here.
00:48And I think markets are discounting still three hikes.
00:52And I would say that's not necessary.
