Ukraine Is Turning Russia's Winter Strategy AGAINST It

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Become a Member Today and Unlock EXCLUSIVE Videos: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKfak8fBm_Lhy4eX9UKxEpA/join  DESCRIPTION  ⏱️ CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Zelenskyy's UNGA Speech & Turning "General Winter" Against Russia 01:48 - The 3-Step Energy Ceasefire Proposal & US Mediation 06:11 - Historical Scale: 64+ Large-Scale Russian Attacks on Energy Grids 08:31 - Third Wave Fuel Deficit: 53% Refining Capacity Offline 11:20 - Blackout Projections: Crimea, Occupied Donetsk, & 3,000km Deep-Strikes 13:00 - Vostok Oil Realities: Infrastructure Hurdles & US Tariff Legislation 17:04 - Ukraine's Energy Hundreds Dispersal & Containerized Co-Generation  Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join  #militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis #themilitaryshow  SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/Ei9CmEB3

Transcript

00:01Ukraine says that it has no choice.

00:03As Russia gears up for a winter assault that it hopes will ruin Ukraine's energy infrastructure,

00:09plunging untold thousands of civilians into freezing cold darkness,

00:13President Volodymyr Zelensky has issued a warning.

00:17General Winter will bite back against Russia.

00:20The oldest ally of Russia, the mythical general that has so long served Russia's needs,

00:26is going to switch uniforms. Putin this winter, Ukraine is going to hurt you. Turnabout is fair play.

00:34That was the message Zelensky delivered in his September 23rd speech at the United Nations General Assembly.

00:40Noting that Russia as a permanent member of the UN Security Council would surely be watching,

00:45Zelensky told those assembled that retaliation would come if Russia continued with its plan

00:50to shatter Ukraine's energy ecosystem this winter.

00:54Ukrainians understand that this winter may be very hard for us, but in response,

00:58we will have no other choice but to make it painful for Russia as well, Zelensky declared.

01:03And to inflict that pain, Ukraine will turn perhaps the most important military figure in Russia's history against it.

01:09General Winter, who has helped Russia defend its frigid territory from invasions for centuries,

01:14will deliver a deep, dark and devastatingly freezing blast to Russia if the winter strikes continue.

01:20No Russian official could ever imagine that General Winter, who fought for Russia for centuries,

01:26would one day switch sides and support those defending themselves from Russia,

01:30Zelensky proudly pointed out.

01:32He's right. Russia has been betrayed by its biggest and best ally.

01:37At least it will be, assuming that Putin doesn't take the off-ramp that Ukraine is offering to him.

01:41We're going to go deeper into what all of this means for Russia, but first, if real, human-made military

01:47reporting matters to you,

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01:52You can also become a member for exclusive content while directly supporting the work behind the channel.

01:57What's coming for Russia this winter is conditional.

02:00The Russian off-ramp is the halting of its attacks against Ukraine's power stations and other energy infrastructure.

02:06If Putin doesn't change course, the Ukrainian strikes against oil refineries and Russian oil infrastructure,

02:13especially that used to help the Kremlin fund Putin's war, will intensify.

02:17So the big question has to be asked, will Putin agree to an energy strike ceasefire?

02:22The signs right now aren't especially promising, despite proposals for such a ceasefire being bandied around.

02:29Zelensky has been calling for an energy ceasefire for a while.

02:32The most recent of those calls came during the UN General Assembly,

02:36when Zelensky said that Ukraine is ready to hold a trilateral meeting with Russia and the US to agree to

02:42the terms of the ceasefire.

02:43Leaders should be moving as quickly as possible to end the war in Ukraine, CNBC reports Zelensky is saying.

02:49The US seems to agree.

02:51On September 24, United24 media reported that the Trump administration has proposed an energy ceasefire,

02:57along with a deal that would ensure both Russian and Ukrainian merchant vessels can transit through the Grain Corridor,

03:04which runs through the Black Sea.

03:06The US proposal has three steps.

03:08First, an immediate energy ceasefire.

03:10Then the halting of strikes in the Black Sea.

03:13And finally, the converting of the trilateral meeting Zelensky wants,

03:17potentially to be held in the neutral territory of Abu Dhabi.

03:20If not there, then perhaps the G20 summit set to be held in Miami later in the year could be

03:25the venue for these talks.

03:27The US seems to be optimistic, and it's clear that Ukraine is on board with making the deal that could

03:32save Russia from General Winter.

03:33But Russia, well, Russia is a country led by Putin.

03:38And Putin is a madman who doesn't seem to realize just how bad this winter could get for his people

03:42if he decides to trade strikes back and forth with Ukraine.

03:46Russia hasn't made any real statement on the latest calls for an energy ceasefire.

03:51If we were going to bet, we'd gamble that Russia is going to say no.

03:55After all, it already has at least once before.

03:58On September 14th, US President Donald Trump claimed that Russia and Ukraine had both agreed to halt their energy infrastructure

04:04strikes.

04:05Both sides seem to be caught off guard by this declaration, leading to Zelensky claiming that Ukraine would reciprocate on

04:12the arrangement as long as its allies could offer him a firm guarantee that Russia would pause its strikes.

04:17Nothing came back from Russia.

04:18Right after Trump's announcement, drones and missiles were flying once more.

04:23It's hard for a logical person to understand why Putin would want to agree to an energy ceasefire when he

04:29knows how much damage Ukraine can do to his country.

04:31But then there never seems to be much logic coming out of Putin these days.

04:35And it seems likely that Russia's leader believes that Russia's own winter attacks will be enough to cow Ukraine into

04:42submission.

04:43Again.

04:44Just like they were supposed to have done the last four times that Russia tried this tactic.

04:48According to the Institute for the Study of War, or ISW, Russia seems hell-bent on using a long-range

04:54energy strike strategy against Ukraine, likely because of how poorly Russian forces are doing on the ground.

05:00Putin has declared that Ukraine must feel Russian strikes in response to its own deep strike strategy.

05:06We assume this means that Putin is unaware of the constant long-range attacks Russia has used since the beginning

05:11of its invasion.

05:13Maybe he thinks he has come up with a new and brilliant strategy as he bumbles around in his bunker.

05:18The ISW suggests that the Kremlin will not even consider making concessions in any sort of negotiation until the end

05:25of its own winter campaign.

05:26And we don't want to undersell this.

05:28Sarcasm aside, Russia does indeed do a lot of damage with its winter strategy.

05:33Russia's attacks in the winter of 2025 and into 26 were especially damaging, the Office of the Commissioner for Human

05:40Rights of the United Nations points out.

05:42Ukraine struggled with its coldest winter since 2010, with temperatures plunging to minus 20 degrees Celsius in some areas of

05:49the country.

05:50Russia took full advantage by battering Ukrainian energy and heating infrastructure, leaving thousands of civilians to brave the cold in

05:57the dark with no central heating.

06:00Outages cut water supply in multi-storey buildings, disrupted healthcare, closed schools and drove some people to leave their homes,

06:07the Office says.

06:08These winter strikes weren't unique.

06:10They were simply the worst of Russia's attempts to employ general winter against Ukraine yet seen.

06:15Viewing Russia's strikes through a wide lens, Putin's forces have unleashed dozens of attacks against Ukraine's energy infrastructure since Putin

06:23launched his invasion.

06:24The exact number varies depending on the source.

06:27According to Dixie Group, Russia has carried out at least 64 large-scale attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure since February

06:352022, employing 2,900 missiles and 12,700 strike drones in the process.

06:42That information comes from an analysis of the Energy Map portal, which is the largest open database providing data about

06:49Ukraine's energy industry.

06:51The Dixie Group also highlights Russia's escalation of these attacks, noting that Russia used about 2,800 missiles and drones

06:58to attack Ukraine's energy infrastructure between 2022 and 2024.

07:02By early 2025, the number had risen to about 12,800, the organization says, suggesting 10,000 or so projectiles

07:10launched over a little more than a year, compared to about a quarter as many over the previous three.

07:15The Center for European Policy Analysis or SEPA has a different number.

07:20It says that Russia has launched 84 attacks on Ukraine's hydroelectric, thermal and nuclear power plants between April 2022 and

07:28April 2026, along with 187 strikes on power substations in the same period.

07:34It isn't clear how many of these attacks are categorized as massive.

07:38Still, if all was as it has been for so many years, you could see Putin's logic in refusing to

07:43agree to an energy ceasefire.

07:45Ukraine gets the much worse end of the stick with these kinds of strikes, as it's Russia that has had

07:49the ability to launch long-range attacks at scale when Ukraine couldn't.

07:53But it's 2026 now, everything has changed. Putin's miscalculation is that he seems to believe that Ukraine can't follow through

08:00on the threat that Zelensky has made to turn General Winter against Russia.

08:04This may be the biggest mistake Russia's leader has made yet, and he has made plenty.

08:08We'll explain why in a moment, but first, this is a reminder that you're watching the military show.

08:13There's a lot more where this comes from, so make sure you're subscribed to the channel and have notifications enabled

08:18if you're getting value from our videos.

08:19The big difference between now and previous years is that Ukraine can hit Russia back.

08:25If Putin were paying attention and wasn't so obsessed with reusing a strategy he believes has worked before,

08:30he would be able to see that General Winter is turning on him.

08:34After all, it's not as though 2026 hasn't provided Putin with enough evidence.

08:38Take Russia's fuel crisis as an example.

08:41In 2026, Ukraine has launched a withering and seemingly relentless series of strikes against Russia's oil refining sector.

08:48The result has been a fuel crisis that started in occupied Crimea, spread throughout Russia, and seems to be showing

08:54no signs of letting up,

08:56even as Russia tried to claim to have everything under control.

08:59According to IntelliNews, Russia now faces a third wave of fuel shortages, relating as much to diesel as gasoline this

09:06time around.

09:07The first three weeks of September saw Ukraine damage eight of Russia's refineries through 12 different strikes.

09:13That followed on from a record-breaking August when Ukraine carried out 29 strikes.

09:19By September 24th, about 53% of Russia's refining capacity was offline due to unplanned repairs, amounting to about 477

09:29,000 tons of oil per day that isn't getting processed.

09:32That suggests this third wave of the fuel crisis is going to be worse than any that came before.

09:38During the worst of the first wave, which happened during mid-summer,

09:41Russia's refineries were processing 575,000 tons of oil per day.

09:46All of this is happening as the crisis in the Gulf region continues,

09:50and oil isn't moving out of the Strait of Hormuz at anywhere near the pace needed to make up for

09:55all of Russia's losses.

09:56A global diesel shortage is developing, and Russia, which is a nation that has always been self-reliant when it

10:02comes to fuel, is suffering.

10:04Reuters says that this shortage is likely to last until 2027, as fuel that was being kept in storage tanks

10:10is being drained to make up for the shortfall.

10:12On September 23rd, the Moscow Times reported that several Russian regions are also reintroducing the fuel caps they had earlier

10:20in 2026.

10:21The worst affected seems to be Siberia's Zabikalski region, where motorists are being limited to 15 litres of fuel per

10:29vehicle across 48 different gas stations.

10:31Of course, attacks on Russia's fuel sector aren't an exact equivalent to Russia's strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

10:38Russians aren't going to lose heating or power as a result of the refineries running dry.

10:43But what they will lose is the ability to move around and work during the winter.

10:47They'll lose any sense of certainty that they're safe from Ukrainian strikes,

10:51as the drones seem to be able to hit any target that Ukraine chooses, that will be worrying.

10:56After all, how long will it be before Ukraine really turns General Winter back on Russia and starts hitting power

11:02stations?

11:03That's the question that will be doing the lapse in many a Russian mind, especially so for those who know

11:08what's been happening in Crimea.

11:10It's fair to call Crimea the epicentre of the shortages that have racked Russia for months now.

11:15It experienced fuel shortages first, so we could say that what happens in Crimea is a portent of things to

11:21come for much of the rest of Russia.

11:23Well, Ukraine has been hitting energy infrastructure in Crimea.

11:27Strikes against power stations and substations have plunged occupiers on the peninsula into darkness several times already in 2026,

11:35and there is no sign that Ukraine will let up as the year progresses into winter.

11:40Electricity consumption fell in Crimea between July 1st and 20th, dropping by 42% year-on-year.

11:46Nighttime lighting was also down in mid-July compared to April, falling by 83%.

11:52And at one point, 1.4 million people on the peninsula were without power at the same time, the new

11:58voice of Ukraine reports.

11:59This is the sort of thing that lies ahead for Crimea, as well as several Russian regions,

12:04if Putin doesn't agree to a ceasefire and Ukraine's version of General Winter is unleashed.

12:09We're already seeing portions of occupied Donetsk being plunged into darkness, as UA News reported on September 18th.

12:17The spread is happening. Russian territory will be next.

12:20And any hope that Russia's people might have had that such problems will be restricted to the occupied territories is

12:26dashed by the realization that Ukraine can now conduct strikes around 3,000 kilometers from its border with Russia.

12:34Siberia has been feeling that pain as Ukraine has hit a refinery and a gas plant in that region.

12:40The message here is that Ukraine's drones can now reach anywhere of consequence in Russia.

12:45And with Zelensky approving a new series of long-range strikes on September 19th,

12:49the prospect of more direct attacks against Russian energy infrastructure is looming.

12:54An eye for an eye is what Zelensky has threatened.

12:57Now, unlike any other winter during the war, Ukraine is able to back up its threats of retaliation.

13:02As the Kremlin panics, Putin and some of his cronies think that they may have come up with a solution

13:07to Russia's oil problems at the very least.

13:10The Vostok oil project has been activated.

13:13And Putin believes that the way to combat General Winter is to pump oil from one of the coldest places

13:18on Earth back into Russia.

13:20It isn't going to work, and here's why.

13:22The promises coming out of the Vostok project are big, and if kept, they could be enough to help Russia

13:28overcome its fuel crisis

13:29and get its oil revenue back on the footing needed to mitigate Ukraine's strikes during the upcoming winter months.

13:36Reuters reports that September 24th saw Russia officially open Vostok oil after years of sanctions and delays forced the project

13:44to be put on ice.

13:45Sorry about the pun.

13:46This project is being run by the state-owned Rosneft oil company, and it involves Russia using special ice-breaking

13:53tankers to ship oil back and forth from a project that is supposed to be capable of producing 2 million

13:59barrels of crude oil per day.

14:01The Moscow Times reports that Rosneft's CEO Igor Sechin is making bold claims about how Russia's new crude oil wellspring

14:09will deliver 30 million tons of crude oil in 2027, with later output rising to 100 million tons annually.

14:16Of course, Rosneft will need more ice-breaker tankers for that, 40 of them in fact, and that's where we

14:21start to see Russia's supposed Arctic oil lifeline unravel.

14:24For a start, and as UATV reports, Vostok isn't really an addition to Russia's crude oil capacity.

14:30Rather, the oil that it could produce will just offset losses from older oil fields that are no longer bearing

14:36fruit.

14:36But more concerning for Russia is that even if it's able to maximize production from Vostok before Ukraine's general winter

14:42strikes, it will face another problem.

14:44Finding a buyer will prove difficult.

14:47The reason is that the U.S. has passed a bill, championed by deceased Senator Lindsey Graham, that allows America

14:53to apply tariffs on any nation that buys Russian oil.

14:55The bill is signed by Trump, so any country that buys oil from Russia now has to ask itself some

15:01serious questions.

15:02Does the nation keep buying discounted oil, risking tariffs while feeding the Kremlin's war chest, or do these nations finally

15:09extract themselves from cheap Russian oil, thus avoiding tariffs?

15:13Putin will hope for the former as winter approaches. He may be disappointed.

15:18Even before the Graham bill passed, there were signs that Russia's second biggest oil customer, India, was starting to pull

15:24away.

15:24At one point, Indian refineries were buying up to 2 million barrels of Russian oil daily.

15:29In September, it's estimated that Indian imports of Russian crude will drop to around 1.4 million barrels.

15:36With Graham's bill passed, the number may continue to decline, and we may also start to see China buying less

15:42Russian oil.

15:43All of this matters in the context of Ukraine's plan to use general winter against Russia, because it means less

15:49money generated by the Kremlin.

15:51In this case, Russia losing out won't just be about weakening the Russian offensive on the front.

15:56When the Kremlin has less money, it can't buy as many of the components and pieces of machinery needed to

16:01carry out the repairs in the wake of Ukraine's strikes.

16:04Spending has to be prioritized, and with Putin so obsessed with Ukraine, you can bet the money Russia does get

16:10will go toward the war effort, and not the Russian people.

16:13Vostok won't save Russia. It's nowhere near being ready for this winter, even if Russia had its usual buyers.

16:20And so, if Ukraine is forced into retaliatory winter strikes, those strikes are going to be multi-layered, and they'll

16:26do more pain to Russia than Putin ever expected.

16:29Before we wrap up, there's an elephant in the room that must be confronted.

16:32As dangerous as Ukraine's threat of using general winter against Russia may be, there's no denying the general will likely

16:39be working for both sides.

16:41Russia does decide to say no to an energy strike ceasefire.

16:44It will try to cause as much damage to Ukraine's energy infrastructure as possible.

16:48Ukraine has to prepare, and it's doing just that.

16:51According to UNN, Ukraine's Energy Minister Deniz Shmial has already assured Ukrainian people that water prices will still be determined

16:59by local authorities and that they include the cost of protecting infrastructure.

17:03In other words, protection is in place.

17:06SEPA adds that Ukraine has started to employ a clever dispersal strategy, which is seeing it build what are dubbed

17:11Energy Hundreds.

17:13These amount to a massive network of small, generating facilities that can operate autonomously and are spread out around the

17:19country.

17:20In August, 1.8 gigawatts of gas generation, along with a gigawatt of energy storage, was operating via this dispersal

17:27system.

17:28Ukraine hopes to have another 800 megawatts online by the end of the year.

17:33Now, this isn't a perfect solution for the upcoming winter.

17:36Ukraine's mid-winter power consumption is about 18 gigawatts, SEPA points out.

17:41But what we're seeing here is the beginning of a clever strategy that ensures Russia can't knock out power for

17:46everybody by targeting large generation facilities.

17:49Small generation facilities, operating all over the country, make for harder targets, while minimizing the impact of Russia's winter assault.

17:57On top of this, SEPA notes, Ukraine has EU-backed financing that is funding containerized cogeneration units all over Kyiv.

18:04Gas fired and capable of producing heat and electricity, these facilities will enable heating systems to keep running even if

18:10Russia can shut down the national grid.

18:12As ever, we see Ukrainian ingenuity coming to the fore.

18:16Ukraine is finding new ways to protect its people, even as it prepares to unleash its own version of General

18:21Winter on Russia.

18:23So much of what comes next is going to depend on whether an energy ceasefire deal can be reached.

18:27But if there's one thing that we can say for sure, it's that Russia knows that Ukraine can hit whatever

18:33it wants to hit to make General Winter more dangerous for Russia than ever.

18:37We saw that just a few days ago, when Ukraine unleashed a devastating attack on Russia's capital Moscow.

18:43You can find out more about that attack and what it means by watching our video.

18:47Before you head off to do that, subscribe and tell us what you think in the comments below.

18:52And if you want even more from the channel, consider becoming a member for access to exclusive content.

18:57And thank you for watching.

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