- 9 minutes ago
Indian equity markets opened the week on a sharp negative note, with the Nifty breaching the crucial 23,000 mark and tumbling over 225 points amid fears of a potential Reserve Bank of India repo rate hike, rising crude prices, and sustained foreign institutional investor selling. The rupee weakened to 95.88 per US dollar, while MCX gold and silver also logged notable declines. Amid broad market weakness, banking and financial shares suffered significant cuts, while India VIX rallied over 11 percent, underscoring elevated market volatility. Separately, attention remained focused on Tata Sons as uncertainty continues regarding the schedule of its annual general meeting alongside decisions regarding the reappointment of N. Chandrasekaran and a potential listing. Additionally, scrutiny over the US H-1B visa program under the Trump administration presents emerging challenges for the domestic information technology sector.
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00:00We'll straight away look at how the rupee is opening this week, viewers, 7 paisa weaker.
00:06The rupee has opened at 95.88 per dollar vis-a-vis the 95.81 per dollar previous Friday's close
00:14as well.
00:15Remember, this is at the same time when precious metals are also losing some sheen.
00:20MCX Gold has slipped by 2,799 rupees to now trade at 1.48 lakh rupees per 10 grams.
00:28MCX Silver has slipped 6,076 rupees to now trade at 2.28 lakh rupees a kilo as well.
00:37So, gold and silver are starting off this week on a lower note.
00:41There's another breaking news coming in and this is with regards to the Tata group, viewers.
00:47There is big suspense over Tata Sun's AGM.
00:50Also, the date will be crucial as to when will the AGM be held.
00:55Also, there is the deadline, the 15-month deadline that ends in November.
01:01The question therefore is, how long can the AGM be deferred?
01:05There is further clarity needed on N. Chandrasekharan's reappointment and on Tata Sun's listing as well.
01:13Let me actually go across to my colleague Krishna Gopalan for more details on the same.
01:17Good morning, Krishna. There seems to be yet another big question now looming large.
01:22Finding out when will the Tata AGM happen now?
01:26Because this AGM you did talk to us earlier about is going to be of extreme importance
01:31because this is where we will find out what the shareholders really believe
01:35when it comes to N. Chandrasekharan's reappointment
01:38and what do they believe about Tata Sun's listing going forward.
01:41What do you have to say about when could this AGM happen?
01:45Yes, morning, Sakshi. I think this stalemate has continued for quite some time.
01:49As you rightly said, there is a three-month deadline.
01:51I am just going to outline a few facts here.
01:53The rulebook says it has to be 15 months after the last AGM.
01:57So, we are already speaking of end of November, early December in terms of the AGM needed to be held.
02:01The option, of course, exists.
02:03The board of Tata Sun's has already reached out to the ROC for a three-month extension that has taken
02:07place.
02:07The other option, as I picked up, talking to lawyers,
02:10is that you should now have to go to NCLT where it's kind of, you know,
02:14examining the basis of facts because it's a very specific case with a very,
02:18it's absolutely extraordinary.
02:19So, obviously, a certain exemption is needed.
02:21But a couple of questions have to be answered.
02:24Right on top is Chandrasekharan's reappointment as director at Tata Sun's
02:27just to drive home the point that that took place before he eventually took on as chairman.
02:31So, that reappointment has to take place.
02:33And then, of course, the bigger question in terms of the reappointment of Chandrasekharan as chairman of Tata Sun.
02:37So, the AGM being held is super critical.
02:39How long they can really push the process is what remains the more part.
02:43Absolutely.
02:44So, we'll keep an eye out on this, Krishna.
02:46Of course, this is a development that we have to keep an eye out on
02:50that will further decide the next cause for the Tata group going forward.
02:54There is the boardroom tussle that is definitely underway.
02:57But remains to be seen how soon do we get to know when the AGM will happen.
03:01Of course, how long can it continue to get deferred, as Krishna points out,
03:05has to happen before early December because the 15-month deadline has to be referred to as well.
03:11And Tata group stocks are also starting off this week on a slightly muted note
03:15amidst all of this development as well.
03:17Let me quickly now welcome our guest on board as far as the stock markets are concerned.
03:22We have Abhinash Kourakshakar, the founder of Abhinash Mentor Research,
03:25joining in on the programme to share with us a fresh take as to what can be expected for this
03:30new week.
03:31The markets have settled about 0.3% lower on the Nifty 23,064.
03:36Good morning to you, Abhinash. Good to have you.
03:38Well, we've already had seven straight weeks of losses.
03:42Abhinash, that's where we are beginning this new week at.
03:45With that data point that this is for the first time since the COVID period
03:49that markets have had such a long stretch of losses.
03:52In the last seven weeks, we've seen the Nifty decline by 6%.
03:57How crucial is it for the markets to start their recovery this week?
04:01Or is there a bigger risk that you're looking at that could further lead to another weekly loss?
04:08Yeah, good morning, Sakshi.
04:10I think markets are nervous and volatile because, you know, crude prices have again jumped to $105, $106 a barrel.
04:17The rupee has weakened as you mentioned now.
04:19And more importantly, you know, I think the geopolitical situation seems to be getting worse because there seems to be
04:26no solution.
04:27So, I think that is one worry which the market has now penciling in.
04:31And most importantly, you know, after 2nd October, we'll have the RBI policy.
04:36With bond deals reaching, you know, record high levels, I think it won't be a surprise that even RBI may
04:42rate hike, may go for a rate hike.
04:44I know that is something which the markets are a little worried about because as of now, I think it's
04:49very clear that the markets will like to get some clarity from the governor as to what his thinking is
04:55on the rate hike scenario.
04:56Plus, the U.S. markets the way they are, I would not be surprised that another rate hike is possible.
05:02You know, that's the reason the markets are jittery.
05:04So, we'll have to wait and watch.
05:05But I think 23,000, you know, is going to be a very important level for the Nifty.
05:09If we hold on there, it's fine.
05:11But if it doesn't hold on, then we could very well go below 23,000 in the very near term.
05:17Absolutely.
05:17And one key issue that you point out is what is going to be the RBI's decision as far as
05:23the upcoming rate policy is concerned on October 7.
05:26If the RBI goes for a rate hike, that could further push the foreign flows going forward from here, from
05:31in the Indian market.
05:33FIS have been net sellers, you know, for the last seven weeks.
05:37Also, we've seen accumulative about 11,000 odd crore rupees of a sell-off coming in from the foreign portfolio
05:42investors.
05:43That's something that we are going to be watching out for.
05:45But three seconds to go for the markets to open.
05:47Let's see.
05:48The Nifty has opened at 23,055 viewers.
05:5285 points lower.
05:54Three-tenths percent lower.
05:55Now, we are seeing even further dip.
05:57The Nifty bank is, in fact, weaker.
06:000.6% of a loss coming in there.
06:03The market breadth seems to be on the weakening side.
06:05Across the board, all the sectors seem to be opening with sharp losses today, largely led by the banking and
06:12the financial space.
06:14The private banks are down by 0.8%.
06:16Financial services, 0.8% down.
06:18You're also looking at the IT index, one-tenths percent lower.
06:22Only the pharma index is showing us some sort of a gain with a flat, with a positive bias.
06:27Rest all of the pockets are starting off on the back foot.
06:29And that goes on to show how the markets are still starting with a lot of fear and volatility.
06:35India Wix is rallying by 5% right at the beginning of this fresh and new week.
06:40On the Nifty, you do have names like Dr. Reddy's Laboratory is 1% higher.
06:44TCS Adani Enterprises.
06:46Those are just mild gains on the Nifty gainers that you can clearly see.
06:49But the market breadth is just twisted towards the negative side today.
06:54On the weakening side, Sriram Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, all of these stocks are down.
07:00Even large-cap private sector banks, ICSA Bank, HDFC Bank, all losing in trade.
07:06Even the FMCG index that managed about a 1% gain last week.
07:10You're looking at some of the heavyweights declining again today.
07:14Nestle is down.
07:15You're looking at Hindustan, Unilever, also down in the session as well.
07:19The markets have slipped below the 23,000 mark.
07:21There's a sharp sell-off, now 177 points lower.
07:24Avinash, your sense of how are you looking at this 23,000 mark being taken out?
07:29The markets time and again tried to defend that.
07:33But right at the beginning of the session, we've lost that number.
07:38No, I think, Sakshi, as I mentioned to you, the markets have gone below 23,000.
07:43And I think the coming week is going to be very crucial because if crude continues to remain above $105
07:49to $106 a barrel,
07:51and after the 2nd October, if there is a rate hike from RBI, then I think that's going to be
07:56further negative.
07:57That's the reason you're seeing a lot of selling in the banks.
08:00Most of the banks, both the PSU and the private sector banks are down because that will definitely impact the
08:05banking sector also.
08:07So I think we'll have to wait and watch.
08:08I think as of now, the market seems to be in a selling mode.
08:12So fresh buying is not advisable.
08:14But I think it's better to wait for maybe the mid-afternoon before we see some stability coming back.
08:19But I think definitely the rate hike possibility is something which is actually becoming a big negative for the markets
08:25in the near term.
08:26The rate hike possibility becoming a big negative for the markets.
08:30Looking at the external environment continuing to exert pressure, the crude oil prices elevated at around $106, $107 a barrel.
08:38Definitely a big negative for the markets and that's leading to a sharp cut on the nifty today.
08:44170 points lower.
08:45We have given up the 23,000 mark right in the first three minutes of trade viewers.
08:49And you're looking at the banks being on the back foot completely.
08:54Private banks losing 1%.
08:55Real estate also now down by almost a percent.
08:59Metals losing ground, 1% lower.
09:01You're looking at a lot of breath cracking down now.
09:04Real estate down almost 1%.
09:05Broader markets 0.7% down each.
09:08That's where the pressure is coming across the board.
09:10Only the nifty IT is now playing the buck the trend part.
09:14You can see two-tenths percent of an uptick coming in there.
09:16India Wix has further moved up about 8% and goes on to show how the fear is rising in
09:22the markets at least at this point in time.
09:24But IT is the saving grace right now.
09:26Avinash, do you see it as a safe haven at this point in time?
09:31No, I think my guess is that clearly IT also will continue to underperform.
09:37I think we have seen a big drag in most of the IT companies.
09:40So, I think it's better to wait and watch, Sakshi.
09:42Here also, I think we will look at the quarter two numbers now which come out.
09:48But clearly, I think at least for the next one or two quarters, I think just the rupee depreciating is
09:52not going to be a kicker for these stocks.
09:54There would be a slight positive momentum here.
09:56But how sustainable it is, I think it all depends on how the U.S. order wins pan out.
10:01So, I think those who have these stocks should hold on.
10:04There is no need to panic.
10:05But I think the real re-waiting will start after the September or maybe the December quarter.
10:10Absolutely.
10:11And, you know, Avinash, the broader markets that were showing us some kind of a support are also now coming
10:15under pressure.
10:16What's your sense across these pockets?
10:21I think broader markets, Sakshi, are definitely also going to remain under pressure because, you know, the rate hike is
10:27going to impact all the corporates, all the constituents of the economy.
10:33And I think Q3 will be a little tougher quarter.
10:36Q2 is now almost complete.
10:37But Q3 is going to have the impact of high crude rate hike.
10:41And that is something which the markets are not liking.
10:44You know, that could obviously pencil in a slower earnings growth for most of the corporates.
10:48So, that's a worry at least for the near term.
10:51Okay.
10:51One quick word also on the entire insurance basket as well that was in limelights the entire last week because
10:58of IRDI's consultation paper.
11:01We had seen a sharp cut across the board.
11:03Let's pull up some of those stocks that had really, you know, taken it on the chin.
11:08Today, you're looking at PB Fintech.
11:10Slight uptick 2.4% higher.
11:11This is right after two days of heavy sell-off that came in for the stock.
11:15Let's also look at Turtle Mint.
11:17That's another stock that really dropped two days in a row on sharp lower circuits as well that we saw.
11:23You look at Max Financials.
11:25That was another space that was being looked at where the impact was being seen.
11:29And today, you're seeing a mixed reaction across the insurance basket.
11:34Avirash, do you see the insurance space continuing to be in a volatile zone?
11:40And what should be investors' approach here?
11:43No, I think most of the insurance companies are going to see a hit in quarter three.
11:48Because I think clearly, you know, if companies like Policy Bajar could be commented on, they are one of the
11:54biggest losers.
11:55You know, they'll have to do a little bit of hard work and restructuring to get their revenues back.
11:59But I think these cutting commissions are good for the customer but not good for the corporates.
12:04And I think Q3, Sakshi, is going to be a bad quarter.
12:07So, there's no need to hurry and buy these stocks now.
12:09I think I would prefer to wait for the Q2 numbers and then the management commentaries from these companies.
12:14Because Q3 is going to be the first quarter where you'll get to see the impact of these reduced commissions.
12:19So, I think better to wait and watch as of now.
12:22Alright, but important to note, there is a brokerage firm report by Bernstein on PB Fintech that is projecting a
12:2891% upside for shares of PB Fintech.
12:32That sold off sharply over Thursday and Friday after the RDI guidelines.
12:37And the stock had fallen by about 36% on day one and another 4% on Friday as well.
12:43And Bernstein now maintains an outperformed rating with PB Fintech and a price tag of 91% upside of Rs.
12:502310.
12:50That's coming in and it's an interesting, you know, report that's come in at this point in time.
12:55So, we'll keep an eye out on that too.
12:57But let's again shift focus to what's happening as far as the entire IT space is concerned.
13:03Specifically with the US H-1B visa program that could see major changes in the next year.
13:08Federal investigators are stepping up their probe into the alleged fraud.
13:12worker exploitation and human trafficking linked to the program.
13:16The Trump administration is also tightening checks on companies that are hiring foreign workers,
13:21signalling tougher scrutiny of H-1B visas, stating that the picture could be very different from a year from now.
13:28Let's actually go across to my colleague Pranay Upadhyay who has more details on the same.
13:33Pranay, go on, tell us what kind of checks are we looking at?
13:36What kind of tightening are we looking at over the next one year?
13:39How could things change for the large Indian IT industry that depends a lot on H-1B visas?
13:47Raksha, you and I have been discussing this issue on air, off air, that what exactly Trump administration is trying
13:52to do.
13:53And you know that it's a political issue for Trump administration, especially for President Donald Trump.
13:58He fought this election for his second term, on the plank of anti-immigration policy, reform of the H-1B
14:04visa system, and in fact this entire MAGA law.
14:06And we have to see it in a context that, you know, this decision or this announcement by the Labor
14:13Commissioner of the United States,
14:14clearly saying that, you know, they are trying to reform and in fact going to deploy stringent measures to take,
14:23you know,
14:23or to contain the misuse of the H-1B visa in the backdrop of the upcoming, you know, midterm elections.
14:29But what we see in larger terms, that there has been over 15% fall in at least like in
14:36the last one year,
14:37as far as the uptake of the H-1B visa systems, or rather I would say that 35% in
14:42cumulative terms.
14:43And also, if you compare in terms of like 2015 to 2016, in a decade time, it's almost like, you
14:51know, over 50%, 60% drop in the uptake of the H-1B visa system.
14:55So clearly, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, when he visited India in May 2026, he clearly said that these measures
15:01are not intended or targeted against India.
15:04We are going to reform the, it's a long overdue reform of the U.S. visa system and the new
15:10visa system will be more techie friendly.
15:12It will be more friendly for the companies, but it's a long overdue reform.
15:16And in fact, we want to stop and curb the misuse of the H-1B visa system.
15:21And we have to understand, Sakshi, that visa is a sovereign issue.
15:24Beyond the point, you cannot do anything.
15:27So we have to deploy measures and in fact, companies have already started deploying and, you know, the mitigating measures.
15:35Absolutely, Pranay, thanks a lot for getting us those details.
15:38I'll take a quick word from Avinash.
15:40Avinash, we were just discussing about the IT sector and you did point out it will take more than just
15:45a rupee recovery for the IT sector to really perform.
15:49But here again, there is one more point that the IT sector has been, you know, thinking about as to
15:56how to go around these changes that keep on happening on the H-1B visa issues.
16:00It's all, you know, set for a revamp, an overhaul over the next one year.
16:05As Pranay did talk about, over the last one decade, there's been a 50% drop in uptick of H
16:10-1B visas.
16:11In the last couple of years also, there's been a sharp drop of 15 to 35%.
16:16What does that go on to show for the Indian IT sector?
16:18Will they have to completely redesign the way they work around the dependence on H-1B visas and rethink and
16:25reimagine their business strategies?
16:28No, I think we'll have to see how this issue pans out because the H-1B visa has been a
16:35pain point for a very long period of time.
16:38And I think, you know, companies which have got off-site kind of, you know, employees, typically companies which are
16:45operating, you know, with their employees abroad, are definitely going to find it a little tougher.
16:50So, we'll have to wait and watch. Any negative surprise here is actually going to increase the cost of H
16:55-1B visas and actually make a little bit of difficult for companies who have got a lot of off-site
17:01kind of business.
17:02For on-site players, it may not make a difference, but off-site players definitely will feel the pain if
17:07H-1B visas cost goes up.
17:09Absolutely. The markets are falling further, viewers. Now, we are at the risk of taking out 22,900. We are
17:16hovering 225 points lower.
17:18The Nifty has lost very sharp and swift way. A 1% cut can be seen right now on the
17:24Nifty right from the time we opened up.
17:26There's been a sharp cut. The Nifty banked down by 1.3%. Now, all the sectors of the Nifty are
17:32down into the red at this point.
17:33India VIX further rallies about 11.4% higher at 13.5 levels. That's where the pain is being seen
17:41across the board.
17:42On the Nifty, you have just about five to six names that are hovering in the green. Rest all of
17:47the pocket on the Nifty has slipped.
17:49Only Dr. Reddy's, TCS, SBI, HDFC Life, Coal India and HCL Technologies.
17:55Those are the only names that you have which are into the green on the Nifty and the Nifty back,
18:01you know, is seeing a sharp loss there.
18:03But we'll have to wrap it up on that note on the Business Today show right here.
18:07We'll continue to track the markets for you on Business Today, but we'll be back at 3 or 5 p
18:11.m. for all the closing action on the street.
18:13Stay tuned for that.