- 14 hours ago
The Indian rupee opened stronger at 94.78 per dollar, while benchmark indices held near the 23,000 mark despite high global crude oil prices. Sentiment received a boost following statements from the United States indicating that a bilateral trade agreement with India is close to finalisation. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also commended India's refining capacity, noting domestic capabilities to process heavy crude from Venezuela. In domestic corporate developments, State Bank of India confirmed a data breach affecting 3.75 lakh records found on the dark web, identifying 3,897 customer accounts with personal data exposure, though noting no material financial impact. Meanwhile, the mega initial public offering of Jio Platforms opened for public subscription with strong demand following heavy anchor book oversubscription. IT and banking stocks showed positive momentum in early trade, with market experts noting that equity earnings downgrades appear near a bottom.
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NewsTranscript
00:00We'll start off with the rupee breaking at this point in time.
00:03Coming on your screens viewers, 94.78 per dollar open is what we see on the rupee vis-a-vis
00:10a 94.93 per dollar close that we actually saw the previous time.
00:14So 15 pesos stronger opening for the Indian rupee.
00:17Let's also pay attention to what's happening in the bullion space.
00:20MCX Silver down 800 rupees.
00:22Now trading at 2.11 lakh rupees a kilo. MCX Gold flat at 1.46 lakh rupees per 10 grams
00:29at this point in time as well.
00:31But clearly you're looking at the markets again indicating that you could see a 23,000 right at the open
00:37of the trade.
00:37But we're coming back after a truncated holiday. A lot of things are against us.
00:42We are looking at the crude oil prices sharply higher $110 a barrel at this point in time.
00:47And the global AI trade is also returning in favor.
00:50Remember, you're seeing global AI stocks and tech stocks also back in favor.
00:54But one thing that the Indian markets could actually look at positively is the big statement by U.S. President
00:59Donald Trump on the India-U.S. trade deal.
01:02He has said they are pretty close to finalizing a trade deal, but indicated the proposed agreement would be very
01:08different from earlier PACs.
01:09Let's listen in.
01:11A trade deal with India is closed. Can you go into that?
01:14They want to make a deal? We're going to make a deal? Pretty close, yeah.
01:17It's going to be a much different kind of a deal than we've made.
01:20A trade deal with India is closed. Can you go into that?
01:23They want to make a deal? We're going to make a deal? Pretty close, yeah.
01:27It's going to be a much different kind of a deal than we've made.
01:32We're also joined by my colleague Karishma Sudhani for more details on the same.
01:36Karishma, good morning.
01:36So, what do you think Donald Trump really means when he says this time the deal will be very different
01:43from the one that was proposed earlier?
01:47Morning, Sakshi.
01:49The deal is going to be very different because the deal which was supposed to happen in the last one
01:54and a half year has not taken off because of the changes in tariff landscape in the United States of
02:00America.
02:01And we've been on the talking table.
02:03The U.S. has also been on the talking table for a while now.
02:06We've expressed a strong dissent against budging on our sensitive sectors, which has been a fair point as our ask
02:15in return.
02:17U.S. has also has set forward certain strong negotiations.
02:21But clearly, President's comments also coming at a time where State Secretary Marco Rubio is here in India and has
02:30also commented that we are very close on finalizing the trade deal means that things have really worked out with
02:37also Mr. Boyle's visit to Washington early this month.
02:43I will not be surprised if things, I will not be surprised in fact to know that things are processed
02:50on a well note before the end of this year.
02:54Okay. Thanks, Karishma, for getting us those details.
02:57In fact, viewers, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also highlighted India's strength in refining heavy crude oil,
03:03saying Indian companies include Reliance have the capability to process Venezuelan crude as more supplies come online.
03:09Rubio has also pointed out to India's existing refining capacity and expertise as key advantages.
03:15Let's listen to what he had to say.
03:18They can, and we'll talk about that tomorrow.
03:21They've done so in the past.
03:22They have the capability to refine heavy crude.
03:25They've done so in the past, and I think as more and more Venezuelan oil comes online, it's something they
03:29can do.
03:30Refining capacity, it's not just being able to produce oil.
03:32I think where a lot of people have become experts in the energy field over the last few months, just
03:37learning because it's tough.
03:39Refining capability is a key part of it, and India is a refining superpower.
03:43They have the ability to do that.
03:44They have companies that know how to do that.
03:46They also, by the way, have pre-existing oil concessions in Venezuela that can produce oil themselves.
03:51So all these are positive things.
03:53I'm not claiming to you that Venezuela alone can fill the hole that could be caused by some of the
03:58things that are happening around the world.
04:00But I think over time, it most certainly can, and in the short term, we're concerned with them.
04:04So that's one of the things we talked about.
04:06In India, we talked about it in the past, and they sound ready.
04:08They are ready to do it.
04:11They're willing to do it.
04:12There might be a few impediments that stand in the way in terms of sanctions and so forth,
04:16but we have to work for pre-existing sanctions element of the bureaucracy.
04:21Let me now welcome our special guest of the day.
04:23We have Mr. Chakri Lokhriya, Managing Partner, RSP LLP, joining in on the special.
04:28Chakri, good morning.
04:29Good to have you with us, as always.
04:30We'll start over the markets in a bit, but your first take on how the statements are now coming in
04:36from global voices,
04:37especially the U.S.
04:38Donald Trump, Marco Rubio talking about a U.S.-India trade deal very close.
04:43Indian officials have already been indicating so,
04:45and we're also seeing the second visit of Marco Rubio in less than six months in India.
04:50He's now betting big on, you know, how Reliance Industries can step up in refining
04:55and, you know, showcasing the capabilities when it comes to Venezuelan oil.
04:59But there is a key caveat.
05:01The deal is going to be very different from the earlier one proposed.
05:04How are you going to be looking at that?
05:06Good morning.
05:07Always good to be with you.
05:10If you look at, you know, I think the part of the optimism is coming from the fact
05:14that you have the U.S. elections midterm coming up in about a few days on November 3rd.
05:21So, again, that is a backdrop.
05:23You know, oil prices coming down, and even after that,
05:25for oil prices to come down is very important for everybody.
05:28Yeah.
05:29If you rewind back about 10 years, Reliance Industries used to process Venezuelan crude,
05:33and it has a capability because it is, Venezuelan crude is one of the most heaviest crude,
05:39and Reliance is one of the most advanced refineries in the world.
05:43And therefore, it has a capability to process it.
05:46So, that is indeed good news, not only for India, but also for oil supply and oil prices.
05:53Point one.
05:53Point two.
05:54Second is the tariffs are now, we're dealing with much lower numbers than before.
06:01Absolutely, Chakri.
06:02Let's actually look at the markets then.
06:05We're just about a few seconds away from the market opening.
06:08The pre-open trade settled above 23,120 points of an uptick is what we are given to understand,
06:14despite the crude oil prices higher.
06:16Let's see if we stick around.
06:17So, we have slipped below the 23,000 mark right at the opening tick,
06:21holding up about, still about 100 odd points higher in trade,
06:24but half odd percent uptick that you can clearly see on the Nifty.
06:26Quarter percent higher move as far as the Nifty bank is concerned.
06:30Sectorally, the action seems positive.
06:32The IT index is the top mover, 1.4 percent higher.
06:34You're looking at private banks, financial services also joining in forces as well,
06:39as far as the top move is concerned.
06:41Remember, we had seen some impact on the broader markets on Monday's trade,
06:46but we are seeing some comeback also on the broader markets,
06:49mid and small caps at this point in time.
06:51On the Nifty, you have HCL Tech, 1 percent higher.
06:54Power Grid, Sriram Finance, Max Healthcare, Bharti et al. is among those gainers on the positive end.
06:59And, of course, some upstream companies like ONGC also higher in trade on the back of higher crude prices.
07:04On the stocks that are declining, you have Bajaj Finance, about 2 odd percent lower in trade.
07:11Remember, the earnings came through.
07:13Bajaj Finsev also down by about 0.5 odd percent lower.
07:15Jio Financial Services, another one that's, in fact, starting on the back foot at this point in time.
07:21But the market breadth seems to be on the positive end.
07:23A lot of sectors and including the stocks on the Nifty are also starting on the positive note,
07:27at least at this point in time.
07:29On the Nifty, next 50 names also.
07:31So, IT banks clearly in focus at this point in time.
07:34Some metal counters are also joining forces at this point.
07:37But let's stick around and try and understand where to find out for more opportunities right now, Chakri.
07:43One, on the IT space particularly, what's your thoughts there?
07:47What unfolded last entire week was, you know, somehow a bubble being thought of as far as the AI trade
07:54is concerned.
07:54There was a lot of pull off there.
07:56That led to a lot of action on the Indian IT spaces.
08:00But again, the tech stocks are rallying again.
08:03So, what exactly should we understand?
08:04Whether the AI bubble is there or not there?
08:07And how should Indian IT space stocks be looked at right now?
08:11You know, Sakshi, if you recall that, you know, last week when we spoke,
08:14we had recommended an IT tactical buy trade.
08:18Fortunately, it's worked out well for your viewers.
08:22Yes.
08:23The IT index is up about 10 odd percent.
08:26I would still recommend to continue buying IT for maybe another 10, 15 percent over the next few months.
08:32And in that, specifically, you know, companies like HCL Technologies,
08:36whose AI business is growing faster,
08:39TCS, whose data center business related to AI is growing faster,
08:43So, companies like that we need to buy where their data center,
08:48I'm sorry, AI related businesses are growing faster than the traditional IT services business.
08:54Okay, fair point.
08:55Let's also pull up L&T Technology Services.
08:56That will be reacting to its numbers also today.
08:59Of course, strong numbers and AI led deals also contributing.
09:03Almost 50 percent of the entire deal wins is what we do know from the management of LTTS as well.
09:08Of course, you'll be listening in to the management, you know, special exclusive there as well.
09:14So, 8 percent higher move.
09:16That's, you know, at the day's high point, right at the opener of the trade.
09:1939.09 is the current level.
09:21So, keep an eye out on these IT stocks.
09:23And Chakri still believes that there is some upside left.
09:26One could continue to tap on as well.
09:28There's breaking news coming in from State Bank of India right now.
09:31SBI has confirmed the incident involving data loss.
09:353.75 lakh records found on dark web.
09:393,897 customer records with personal data identified.
09:45SBI has activated the cyber incident.
09:48Also has the, talking about the response, including the protocols that they say.
09:53SBI says data exposure has no material impact on the financials per se at this point in time.
09:59But, a data loss has been confirmed by SBI.
10:03So, the incident we have been also sharing with you that there was also a claim led made over the
10:10weekend.
10:11And now, SBI is confirming that yes, a data loss has occurred of 3.75 lakh records that were found
10:17on dark web.
10:18And 3,897 customer records with personal data have been identified.
10:22So, that seems to be scary at this point in time for all the customers of SBI at this point
10:28in time.
10:28Flash to a positive reaction on SBI 975 at this point in time as well.
10:33Chakri, how are you looking at the financial system really leading to such kind of, you know,
10:41or reacting to such kind of impact that they are seeing of hackers, you know, constantly increasing their activities.
10:50And what could that mean now for the, you know, customers of the banking system at this large?
10:56You know, we seem to be exposed completely.
10:58There seems to be no prevention of this.
11:02You are absolutely right.
11:03You know, the clear and present situation is there is no getting away from hackers in a digital world.
11:10And every transaction and everything that we do out there is right there on the web.
11:16And, you know, there are sufficient systems that are in place and its cyber security is developing very fast.
11:22But this is a fact.
11:23I wouldn't really attribute too much to SBI's financials or risks at this point in time.
11:29I'm sure they have pretty robust systems.
11:32Absolutely.
11:33So, we'll keep a tab on that story through the course of the day.
11:37We'll try to get some voices from SBI also to talk about it on the channel as well, viewers.
11:41But let's also shift focus to the largest ever IPO that opens for subscription today, Jio Platforms.
11:49Chakri, we've discussed this with you even before.
11:51But 30,213 crores, India's largest IPO, price span of 1,065 to 1119 rupees per share,
11:58lot size of 12 shares and a minimum investment that you need to shell out as a retail investor,
12:0313,428 to raise that bid.
12:05We've already seen a robust anchor book and the demand that we actually saw from institutional investors,
12:13a 30 times over subscription to 80,110 crores of the anchor book that was opened up as well.
12:20A completely fresh issue of shares right there.
12:23A market valuation expected at the upper end of the price span at 10.3 lakh crores.
12:28How would you assess this, Chakri, for customers and investors and your clients and potential subscribers?
12:36What should they really look for when they see this largest ever IPO opportunity?
12:42Jio Platforms is very well placed.
12:45It's an attractively priced IPO.
12:46You know, compared to its competitors, the valuation and growth potential, more importantly, is very well placed.
12:54You know, first, it has a beginning slate of about 500, over 500 million customers.
13:00And that bit of the business, existing telecom businesses, continues to grow pretty fast with a very strong market share.
13:07The new businesses in digital AI and the platform-led businesses offer secular growth, very strong growth over the coming
13:15years.
13:15So, I think I would clearly subscribe to the IPO.
13:19Clearly subscribe to the IPO as well.
13:21A lot of people would also want to know, as Reliance Industries shareholders, what sort of a value unlocking do
13:27they expect here?
13:28But, of course, as shareholders, they will also get an opportunity to, you know, get better access to the IPO
13:35and better opportunity right there to get the IPO allotted at least with the shareholder quota too.
13:41But your suggestion of how should one assess Reliance Industries, the parent company or Reliance Jio, how should one go
13:47about it?
13:48You know, clearly subscribe to Jio Platforms, the IPO.
13:51Second, Reliance Industries is clearly an easier way to just buy it because your allotment, by the time the IPO
13:58closes, it will be oversubscribed much more than 30 times.
14:02And therefore, you know, the company has a lot of businesses, Reliance Industries also going in some of the parts
14:08business.
14:08So, I clearly buy both, the IPO as well as the existing Reliance Industries.
14:14Okay, let's also bring one more question up for you.
14:17And this is within the telecom space.
14:19So far, we had, you know, Bharti Airtel as the poster boy of telecom.
14:23Always, whenever their opportunity struck, it was used to be only one choice largely for investors to look at.
14:29How would you look at now between Bharti Airtel and Jio as the opportunity coming in?
14:35Clearly, you're absolutely right.
14:36You know, with telecoms, it's not just a mature business, but there are new vectors of growth with Jio is
14:43extremely well positioned.
14:44So, yeah, clearly, you know, there was a diversification of holding.
14:48And I would buy Jio platforms over Bharti Airtel, even at the current levels.
14:53Okay.
14:54I mean, it's probably going to be like it.
14:56Okay, got that.
14:58Well, so that's as far as Jio is concerned.
15:01Chakri clearly points out, of course, it is a subscribe to the Jio IPO for all of those who are
15:06looking for guidance here.
15:07Chakri's vote goes for Jio IPO subscription at this point in time.
15:12But you can also go ahead and buy both the parent company, Reliance Industries, and invest in Jio if, you
15:18know, your pocket allows at this point in time.
15:20And vis-a-vis between Bharti Airtel and Jio, it will be Jio at this point in time as well,
15:26is what Chakri clearly says.
15:27Well, let's also talk about the earnings season thus far, Chakri, with you.
15:31What are the initial insights that you have drawn?
15:34And what does it talk about, what are we in for, for the rest of the quarter two earnings?
15:40And, you know, are there enough opportunities for earnings upgrades that you're finding already?
15:45You know, there are two distinct camps.
15:48One, financials, the numbers have been good, both banks as well as NBFCs.
15:53That gives you some degree of comfort that, you know, various sectors in the industry are doing well.
15:58Second, export-related, like IT, pharma, more IT actually, they've seen a slowdown.
16:06Hopefully, there is some kind of a bottoming out here of earnings going into the future.
16:11So, I think, you know, from an overall perspective, Nifty earnings downgrades are kind of have bottomed,
16:18assuming that, you know, oil doesn't jump again and there are new flair of tensions.
16:24So, I think the market is close to bottoming out, assuming no new tensions.
16:30Okay, fantastic.
16:32Markets seem to be close to bottoming out.
16:34That also signs, you know, gives us a signal of optimism on the market's turnaround as well.
16:40And slowly and gradually, we've been moving up the ladder.
16:4323,000 is back with us, 182 points higher in trade.
16:46Chakri, we'll thank you on that note for sharing all those wonderful insights and season's greetings your way.
16:51We'll continue to be in touch with you to seek more insights as and when the market's progress from here
16:56too.
16:57But with that, it's a wrap on the Business Today show.
16:59Viewers, right here.
17:00But don't forget to tune in at 3 or 5 p.m. for all the closing action on Lalal Street.
17:05I'll be back for that.