00:00What am I missing here when we're talking about Texas, we're talking about Ohio?
00:04I mean, Kalshi and Pauli Markit are part of the conversation.
00:07Polls are another part of the conversation.
00:09But now you have top Senate Republican political action committees warning donors
00:14that the party faces a high risk of losing a U.S. Senate seat in Iowa.
00:19What's going on?
00:20Yeah, it's an amazing situation.
00:23It's not something I think Republicans or frankly even Democrats expected to be
00:28looking at, say, six or nine months ago.
00:31But as you mentioned, the Senate Leadership Fund, which is the main super PAC,
00:35trying to support Republican Senate candidates around the country,
00:39trying to ensure that Republicans keep their majority,
00:42sending a memo out saying that basically putting out a red flag on Iowa,
00:47saying that they would like $7 million more in donations to help, quote,
00:52double down on Ashley Henson, the candidate there, who's facing a really strong challenger.
00:57And it's, you know, the threat to her and the threat to a lot of Republicans
01:02in states that have traditionally been red right now are these diesel prices.
01:08It's the cost of living.
01:10It's things related to the war in Iran.
01:12You know, people are paying now.
01:14A week ago we were talking about $6 a gallon diesel.
01:17Now we're talking about $6.50.
01:19And people were wondering if we're going to hit $7.
01:21This is huge in a lot of those farm states.
01:23We were talking about Kansas being a more interesting race.
01:27Alaska is certainly looking more up for grabs.
01:29So the map is largely expanding to the Democrats' benefits so far.
01:34It doesn't mean, you know, Texas with Tallarico,
01:38they haven't elected a Democrat statewide in 30 years.
01:41But it certainly looks like the best shot they're going to have.
01:45That's the situation in a whole bunch of states now.
01:47Democrats getting a shot at flipping a seat
01:50that they didn't think they had a shot at six or nine months ago.
01:53Can we draw a straight line to President Trump and his policies
01:56and people just saying,
01:58you promised us this and we're not getting any of it?
02:02Well, certainly he ran on trying to recreate the economy
02:07that I think a lot of people remembered from 2016 to 2020,
02:10kind of a boom time.
02:11He says that the gas prices are more related to the war in Ukraine.
02:17But, you know, the data shows that the latest spike
02:21came after this conflict with Iran began in late February.
02:26And that was a conflict the White House repeatedly said
02:28would be over in a matter of weeks.
02:30We're six or seven months into that.
02:32The president has admitted he doesn't necessarily see it ending
02:36until sometime after the midterms.
02:38And you hear him and you hear J.D. Vance really making a plea.
02:42J.D. Vance campaigning out in North Carolina,
02:45basically saying, give us more time.
02:48The policies are right.
02:49We got to stick with them a bit longer
02:51and then you'll feel the benefits.
02:53That is coming as a surprise to a lot of Republicans
02:55who thought they wouldn't be facing higher prices
02:59heading into November 3rd.
03:00I'm just curious about the strategy here
03:02on the politics of this.
03:04And, like, Bill, if J.D. Vance is saying that,
03:08what's the evidence that he points to
03:10for some policies working or for needing more time?
03:14You know, it's so clear.
03:15We understand what the Democrats are doing.
03:17All they have to do is point to the gas pump
03:18and, you know, they can talk about that
03:20or talk about beef, for example.
03:22What are Republicans saying on the campaign trail
03:25to try to push the conversation toward them?
03:28Well, they are saying, like, listen,
03:30there was the one big beautiful bill.
03:32If you were getting paid with a lot of your income
03:34and tips, you're not getting taxed on that.
03:38You got better rebates this year.
03:40Some of these policies will take more time.
03:43Unfortunately, you know, politics is a ruthless game.
03:47The vote in the United States is basically
03:48every two years for the House
03:50and for a third of the Senate.
03:52And the party in power in the White House
03:55traditionally loses ground in the midterm elections.
03:58President Trump faced that.
04:00President Biden faced that.
04:02And it's very hard to push back
04:04on that historical trend.
04:06But is it, you know, it's interesting.
04:08We were talking with Tim O'Brien earlier
04:10of our Bloomberg opinion team.
04:11But, you know, the point that voters,
04:13they don't have a lot of love
04:15for kind of either party right now
04:17because the policies are just, you know,
04:21whether it's Democrats or Republicans,
04:23are not really following through
04:26or passing through to more Americans.
04:29There's a lot of Americans hurting right now.
04:32So will this, if the midterms flip,
04:34is it just a pushback against the president
04:36and his policies and the Republicans?
04:38Or, like, I don't know,
04:40what will be our read on it?
04:42Well, we have to see, you know,
04:43how the results really come in.
04:45I think there's a big question
04:46about some of the Republican voters,
04:48if they are disaffected with the administration,
04:50do they vote for Democrats
04:52or do they stay home and not vote?
04:55The Democrats would obviously love
04:56to see them come to their side.
04:58But if they stay home,
05:00that may be all the Democrats need to take power.
05:03But it's a real question in terms of
05:04what kind of policies would be coming
05:07in the next two years
05:08if Democrats control one or both houses of Congress.
05:11If it's one house
05:12and you really have a kind of a divided government
05:15in that sense,
05:16it's going to be hard to get any legislation through.
05:19So it's hard for Democrats to make the argument
05:21that they can really turn around the entire economy
05:24if they control one house of Congress
05:26and you still have a Trump in the White House.
05:29So in terms of what to expect from this,
05:32it's hard to make any promises
05:34that will come true in the next two years.
05:35It's going to be interesting, though,
05:37as we get ready and closer.
05:38Thank you, Tara.
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