00:00We're just looking at some images of that last historic visit when President Trump back in May visited Beijing and,
00:06you know, we really saw Beijing roll out a lot of that ceremony and pomp and imagery for that visit.
00:14How significant do you think this reciprocal visit is? Because we know a lot of the commentary has been very
00:20positive, but there are a red line certainly that we know will not be crossed and perhaps ones that we
00:25don't know about yet regarding AI.
00:29Oh, I think it's tremendously significant. Look, since the Busan APEC leaders meeting back in November last year, this week
00:38will be the third time these leaders have met and nothing could be more constructive and helpful than face to
00:44face symmetry between the leaders of the U.S. and China.
00:48So this is an important week. Interestingly enough, the agenda that seems to be worked up over the last weekend
00:56between Scott Besant and Hurley Fung, that really is continuing the momentum that's come out of the last three meetings
01:06by these leaders.
01:08So this is building on what's already been established.
01:15I know that you've spent a lot of time on the insides of these rooms as these sorts of conversations
01:19happen.
01:21What do you think the deliverables might mean? Or is Trump and is Washington at this point, with all of
01:27the domestic distractions and other international distractions, wars and trade wars among them,
01:31are they happy just for a sense of continuity and stability going forward in this relationship?
01:39Well, Trump's in your preamble made clear that he saw trade and trade outcomes being a very important part of
01:46this meeting.
01:47And I think that rather than the security issues, Ukraine, Iran, where progress is much, much more difficult, I think
01:55there is a real opportunity here.
01:56I think the senior officials who have met in the last few days have probably done a very good job
02:02preparing this meeting.
02:03There are some issues that divide them and leaders can solve those.
02:07For example, with the Busan pause, as it's called, would it be extended for three months, six months, or maybe
02:15another two years, as the Chinese want.
02:17But they're the sorts of differences that leaders can resolve, split the difference, if you like.
02:21And I think the atmosphere around their dialogue is really quite encouraging.
02:26I would say, Heidi, I think global commentary is probably not putting enough premium on the extent to which Trump
02:33and Xi Jinping seem to be able to work together on these often quite difficult trade and technology issues.
02:42Yeah, that emerging of the personal rapport has been sort of one of the surprising elements, right?
02:48Do you think that extends to some of these perhaps really unknown tensions when it comes to AI?
02:55You've talked about beyond platitudes.
02:56We don't really know how the two sides are going to be able to reach much consensus here.
03:03Well, yes, but there is a conversation, and that's good, and that's what Scott Besson said.
03:08At least we're talking, and that's very important.
03:11It's a huge change to what it was like under the Biden administration.
03:16I think Trump's transactional approach to international relations, especially in terms of the bilateral relationship with China,
03:24is something China can work with, and I think it provides a basis for more constructive developments.
03:31And already there's talk about some sort of AI early warning mechanism.
03:34I don't know what exactly that would mean, but the point is that sort of conversation is beginning,
03:40and this is when leaders can carry that forward to another level.
03:45We've also seen in the previous weeks leading up to this, President Trump has obviously been very keen for influential
03:53nations like China
03:54to be able to help him out with Iran, potentially with Russia and Ukraine as well.
03:58Is he going to get much further on that, do you think?
04:02I think very difficult.
04:05China obviously has a big interest in both, and particularly in the Middle East.
04:09And I would note that after the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Kyrgyzstan three weeks ago,
04:18President Xi went to Cairo, I think sending a very clear message to the region and to the United States
04:23that China has both interests and is a player in the region.
04:27But I think the resolution of Iran really depends very much on the US and Iran itself.
04:37You've written about the idea that nations, including Australia, need to kind of face up to the geopolitical realities.
04:43What are those realities in terms of China's influence in this part of the world?
04:47And have these realities come to pass because we've seen that retreat of the US pivot to Asia?
04:55Yeah, extremely important moment, I think.
04:59With Xi's visit to Washington this week, it very much reinforces the notion that Trump laid out in Busan last
05:10November
05:11that he saw the management of global affairs being the business of what he called the G2, the US and
05:18China.
05:18China has resisted that notion until fairly recently.
05:22Xi Jinping now seems more comfortable in that type of dialogue and more comfortable with Trump presenting their relationship in
05:29those terms.
05:30But at the same time, and this is very important, Xi Jinping is setting out and has set out,
05:36and I think very successfully, positioned China as effectively the leader of the global south.
05:42And with institution building like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the BRICS,
05:47the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank and so on, China has built around itself an order.
05:55And we saw that played out in the last few weeks with the meetings, as I said, in Kyrgyzstan,
06:01the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and in Delhi of the BRICS,
06:06where Xi Jinping made his first visit to India in about nine years.
06:11This is saying to everyone in the world that in this new multipolar order,
06:17these are new arrangements that have to be taken seriously,
06:20and these arrangements have something to contribute to global order.
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