00:00We can talk about two teams in the ACC who are actually good
00:03in Louisville and SMU,
00:07who I believe both incredibly are not on the Miami schedule.
00:14Like, Notre Dame play SMU and Miami doesn't.
00:19Just like, yes, I'm still annoyed at the conversations
00:22around the Notre Dame schedule,
00:24which is significantly harder than Miami's.
00:28And I will leave it at that for now
00:30until I inevitably bring it up again next week.
00:33This is a one-and-a-half point number for Louisville at home, Dave.
00:37Total 58-and-a-half.
00:39What is standing out to you heading into a pretty big game
00:43to start ACC play for Louisville?
00:46This, to me, was the hardest game on the schedule to look at.
00:49I wanted an official play.
00:50I wanted to take it.
00:52I know there's some polls you're in where you've got to pick the game.
00:54SMU showed they're much better than the end result against Florida State.
00:57We've already done that.
00:58Louisville actually looked really good versus Ole Miss and fell short.
01:02I would say that SMU crushing them last year,
01:04which was Louisville's only loss by more than three points,
01:07is a point.
01:08It's a data point.
01:09But I'm not sure how much you put stock into it.
01:12What sticks out to me is I think this is a very underrated quarterback battle
01:17with Keinholtz out there on one side and Jennings on the other.
01:22Two really, really good quarterbacks.
01:24We talk about Mensah, Kevin Jennings right there in passing.
01:27He actually led the ACC in passing going into last night.
01:31Two really, really good quarterbacks.
01:34Not sure either one of these defenses is worth anything
01:37because the Cardinals rank 43rd in defensive havoc rate,
01:42so they're not really getting in there.
01:44The quarterbacks should be able to have their time.
01:48I lean towards the over, but I'm the undertaker,
01:51and 59 1⁄2 is a number that I don't feel comfortable going over
01:55unless we're talking old big 12 days.
01:58The read would be Louisville and the over,
02:01but I could honestly see this going any which way.
02:03I want to take Louisville, but I also know SMU is better than they showed,
02:08so it's a pass.
02:10I'm probably going to be playing in the prop market
02:13with those quarterbacks, but I am taking Louisville in a pool
02:16that I'm in that forces me to take this game.
02:19You know, Dave, I think what you said at the beginning,
02:21I really, really kind of made me feel better about this
02:25because when we have these big games, you want to get involved,
02:28and you don't want to force things, right?
02:29I can probably find something, and this is a ranked-versus-ranked game,
02:33and right now it's not on my card.
02:35This is a really tough spot where, you know, Louisville at home is tempting,
02:42but this SMU team is talented, and this total, so I lean under, right?
02:52But these are really talented offenses.
02:55I mean, they just are.
02:57The case for the under is this total is, you know,
03:03comfortably higher than Louisville Ole Miss,
03:07and I don't know if a Louisville SMU game should have a higher total
03:11than a Louisville Ole Miss game,
03:12but, again, Lincoln Kynholz has really popped early season here.
03:20For anybody who's, like, not super familiar,
03:23the star of the Louisville offense was supposed to be Isaac Brown.
03:29Isaac Brown was, you know, in a lot of spots,
03:33sat next to Kawan Lacy in the first-team All-American preseason
03:38running back slot.
03:40Isaac Brown has 29 carries for 97 yards
03:44and no touchdowns through two games.
03:47It's been the Kynholz show,
03:49who has three rushing touchdowns of his own,
03:52another four in the air,
03:54totaling, you know, almost 800 yards of offense
03:57through the first two games that this team has played.
04:01I am right now stepped back, you know, I've stepped back.
04:05I'm kind of hoping there's over money that hits,
04:08and maybe, ah, you know what, I'm getting 60 and a half now.
04:11We'll play that towards the under here.
04:14But, again, just to kind of emphasize, guys,
04:16like, this really does matter for the ACC
04:19when we're trying to figure out tiebreakers,
04:21who is going to likely play Miami in an ACC championship game,
04:27who can give them a game here.
04:29Neither one of these teams play Miami,
04:31so they become, the winner of this game
04:33becomes a pretty decent favorite
04:34to appear in an ACC championship game.
04:38I'm going to say, I'm going to say, I'm going to say,
04:38I'm going to say, I'm going to say, I'm going to say,
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