00:00It's actually very good timing that I'm talking to you today because you probably saw the hot headline on the
00:05terminal just an hour ago about the spread between the French tenure and the German tenure at 100 basis points.
00:14We're close to the highest in 18 years. So this kind of shows you the tension. We're like six months,
00:20more than six months away from the elections and already you're seeing this pressure on the bond markets.
00:25Of course, this comes on the back of the global tensions and a broader sell off of EU debt. But
00:32there are specifics to France. We have these concerns about the deficits.
00:36We actually had a really timely interview this morning out of Dublin with the French finance minister, Roland Escure, who
00:43was telling us, like, we're basically trying to prepare the plane for takeoff.
00:51But the next president that's going to be elected in May is going to be in charge of containing that
00:57deficit.
00:57At the moment, the deficit is going, like, totally above target. The target was 5% this year. Now we're
01:04probably going to go to, like, 5.5%.
01:06But clearly there is this tension, as you were mentioning. Parliament is fragmented into three blocks, far right, center, and
01:15the left wing.
01:16And they can't agree on where to cut spending. So it's really hard to make sense of all this.
01:22Well, I'll be coming over to Paris in two weeks, so I will do my part to help the economy.
01:26I'm sure there'll be an adjustment there.
01:28Talk to us about Marine Le Pen. How far right do you think the French people want to take this
01:33government?
01:33We've seen it across the globe over the past, you know, six, seven, eight years, a big move to the
01:39right. How do you think France will move?
01:40I think Marine Le Pen, she's obviously been present in the runoff of the French elections twice already.
01:48She's lost twice against Emmanuel Macron. And I think she's very different from the person she was about 10 years
01:56ago when Macron was first elected.
01:58At the time, remember, we were doing interviews. She was saying, I am Madame Frexit.
02:02So I want France to exit the EU. I want France to exit the euro. No, she's kind of abandoned
02:10that.
02:10So I would say she's kind of softened her tone. And the French are kind of thinking, we're ready for
02:16this. We're ready for a change. It might be her turn.
02:19Audible. I got to go. I got to go here. The huge luxury business in Paris, which Carolyn Cohen's, it's
02:25all the stores.
02:26Yeah. We're saying Faubourg or whatever it is. OK, they're all upset at the taxes the French government's doing on
02:33luxury.
02:34Could Louis Vuitton actually move to Texas or Hermès actually move to Ireland?
02:40Is there so much tension that those companies would say goodbye, France?
02:44Now, the question is that would you still buy a Hermès scarf if it was actually made out of America
02:49or out of Mexico, right?
02:51It's like the reason you're buying those luxury products is probably because you have the French no-ha and it's
02:58all like very artisan made.
03:02But you're very right. Bernard Arnault is the head of LVMH.
03:07He's obviously very upset with all these taxes.
03:10Last year, over the past two years, actually, you've seen government collapses over the budget in France.
03:15You had Michel Barnier, who didn't manage to pass the budget.
03:18Then you had François Berroux also.
03:20And the way out of that was to convince the socialists to get on board.
03:27And the way to convince the socialists was to put new taxes on the rich, to put new taxes on
03:33the wealthy, to put new taxes on those big companies.
03:36So we had this new super tax that was supposed to be exceptional two years ago.
03:41And now it's not exceptional.
03:42And now it's like, you know, we've seen it twice.
03:45I've got to go. Michael Barr's begging to do the news.
03:47Did you, quickly, did you see Celine?
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