00:00I want to see if you can tell us if there's any timeline for this pipeline or if you can
00:05also touch upon why it's so crucial.
00:08Hi there. Thank you very much for having me.
00:10With respect to the pipeline, which was attacked recently, there was a major attack.
00:16The reason why it was a major attack is because Saudi Arabia was using it in order to reroute volumes
00:22away from the Strait of Hormuz due to Iranian threats and export them out of the Red Sea.
00:27What happened right now is that there is pressure right now on this pipeline, on those volumes that were being
00:33exported out of Saudi Arabia's Red Sea terminals.
00:37And Saudi Arabia right now is shifting more towards the Persian Gulf to increase the loadings out of the Persian
00:43Gulf and get them out of the Strait of Hormuz to be exported to global oil markets,
00:48including via ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, meaning a tanker would load within the Persian Gulf
00:54and then can transfer the cargo in the Gulf of Oman.
00:58So the pipeline itself was very critical, especially for the kingdom and also for global oil markets,
01:06in order to keep oil flowing at the time when oil exports out of the Persian Gulf from Saudi terminals
01:13were disrupted due to the Iranian threats in the Strait of Hormuz.
01:17When it comes to the pipeline itself, how much it will take, I will not go into details here, but
01:23there are different possibilities.
01:25We might see a partial reactivation of the pipeline until it is fully back online.
01:31And there are also other possibilities, but I will try not to go into, you know, more into this, awaiting
01:39more assessments on the attack itself and the impact on the pipeline.
01:42Noam, I just want to ask about the U.S. investigation now.
01:47They're investigating possible cyber attacks on oil and gas tankers.
01:52What do we know at the moment?
01:54Well, we know at the moment is that investigations are still ongoing to see if there was any Iranian interference,
02:02because based on what we know, it seems that the vessels face compromise, meaning the ships were compromised.
02:11But we don't know more details about how it was carried.
02:15I would be very careful with what Iranian media is saying, by the way, on these attacks or with respect
02:21to the attack on one vessel.
02:23Iranian media usually blow things out of proportion.
02:25And I'm saying this because I very much track Iranian ship attacks in the Persian Gulf.
02:30And I know sometimes they put out claims out there that are not very accurate.
02:34Right now, investigations are ongoing and we still don't know exactly how they were attacked.
02:39But what we know is that something happened to the ship.
02:43And when it comes to the cyber attacks, again, in conflicts, during wars, these things, we do see them happening.
02:50So even before the Iran war, we were seeing some cyber attacks taking place in the shipping industry.
02:56So I just wanted to note that.
02:58No, and thank you very much, Noam, for that.
03:00Can you talk more about other security threats that these ships are facing out there?
03:06Absolutely.
03:06In the Strait of Hormuz, and this is what I track closely, back in August and July,
03:12we saw aggressive Iranian attacks, specifically against tankers.
03:16What I'm watching right now is how Iran might actually go after what we are calling right now the shuttle
03:23runs.
03:24These are shuttle operations, meaning tankers load within the Persian Gulf,
03:29transit the Strait of Hormuz via the Omani corridor around Oman, which is a U.S.-facilitated route,
03:35leaves and then goes, and those ships, they go and they transfer the cargoes to other ships waiting in the
03:40Gulf of Oman.
03:41What I'm watching right now is how Iran might actually try to disrupt more traffic there along that route.
03:48These shuttle runs right now are critical for regional exporters as well as for global oil markets
03:54because they're allowing countries to keep the oil flowing.
03:58And these countries include the United Arab Emirates, which has been at the forefront of the shuttle operations.
04:04Saudi Arabia might start becoming more active also in the shuttle runs right now because of what happened to the
04:11pipeline that runs to the Red Sea.
04:13We'll also have Iraq and we'll also have Kuwait and others.
04:17So this is what I'm watching right now.
04:19Iranian attacks are still there.
04:21Even if we don't see a lot of attacks happening every single day,
04:24this does not mean that the Iranian threat is not there anymore.
04:27So I would keep my eyes on that.
04:30But again, August, July, we're very aggressive.
04:33Right now, we are still seeing, when it comes, excuse me, to ship attacks,
04:36what we're seeing right now in September is that attacks are still taking place,
04:40not at the level we saw back in August and July.
04:43But again, we should expect Iran to escalate, and this will definitely depend on the trajectory of the war.
04:50Noam, the U.N. General Assembly convenes here in New York City next week.
04:54President Trump says he's supposed to be meeting with Persian Gulf leaders sort of as a sidebar to the General
05:01Assembly.
05:01If that meeting happens, what might it look like, and might we see anything really materialize from it?
05:09All I can say about that is that regional countries are trying also to find a resolution for the conflict
05:17because going back to what we said earlier, it is impacting their oil operations, their facilities,
05:25and not only the Iran war itself.
05:28Also, we are seeing escalation in the Red Sea because of what the Houthis are doing,
05:32the Houthis in Yemen are doing.
05:34And these are a group that receives support from Iran.
05:38So I expect this to definitely be a major issue to be discussed, meaning the Iran war, the conflict in
05:46Yemen,
05:46and how a resolution might actually be reached given the impact regional countries are experiencing
05:52when it comes to oil production, exports, and the energy infrastructure in general.
05:58Noam, where do we see this war headed?
06:01I mean, you had a recent campaign event.
06:02President Trump was saying once again that the Iran war will end very soon.
06:07We seem to hear him say that often.
06:10We're now heading into month seven already at this point.
06:13Where do you see the war headed at this point?
06:17Well, you said around seven months.
06:19Around seven months, and we're still not back to where oil flows, at least, were before the war started,
06:27end of February and early March.
06:31It's a tough question.
06:32I don't have a direct answer.
06:34But all I can say, depending on the research that I do every single day,
06:37is that there's a new navigational order in the region, in the Strait of Hormuz itself.
06:43I really see it very difficult to go back to how the Strait of Hormuz itself was operating before the
06:49war.
06:50Iran will not make it easy to return to how the order was in the Strait of Hormuz.
06:54We still have several challenges.
06:56In addition to Iranian attacks, we also have the issue of the mines, which we don't have clear information on.
07:04And again, Iran has established itself as an authority in the Strait of Hormuz that continues to harass ships, threaten
07:14ships.
07:14So this leverage that Iran gained throughout this war, Iran wants to ensure that it turns it into a lasting
07:22advantage.
07:23And for this reason, again, I don't see us going back to how things were.
07:27The question now is, how do we move forward with this new navigational order in the Strait of Hormuz?
07:33It's going to be very, very challenging for many regional countries that will continue relying on this critical waterway.
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