00:00Kevin Horst said yesterday we can pretty much ignore the labor market for right now,
00:04and that's what jobless claims are telling us.
00:08196,000, that is close to the all-time low again.
00:13That's down from 206,000 the week before, so nothing happening there.
00:18Now, the Philadelphia Fed is also out with its index,
00:21and the number that we care about, I mean, the headline number is 37.8,
00:26comes down from 47.4, so it doesn't match what Horst was saying about expansion.
00:31But it's prices paid and prices received that people are going to be watching,
00:36and prices received up to 31.3 versus 17.7.
00:41Those would be like PPI numbers.
00:43And then the prices paid index goes up to 48.6 from 40.9.
00:49So inflation is the problem in the Philadelphia Fed index.
00:53Jobs don't seem to be the problem in the country.
00:56We also have housing starts out down 2.6%.
01:01That is down from a drop of 9% the prior month.
01:07But the real issue is that we're not building enough houses at this point,
01:12and the interest rates are too high.
01:14But maybe we'll see the mortgage rates come down a little bit
01:19now that we're seeing the market move and the yield curve flatten
01:22with the 10-year note coming down.
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