00:00Let's circle back to the geopolitics. President Trump is expected to meet Gulf leaders next week.
00:05That's according to Axios. The meeting is reportedly set to take place on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly
00:12in New York.
00:13And earlier today, President Trump also told reporters in North Carolina that the war with Iran will end, quote, very
00:19soon.
00:21So to discuss all of this, I'm now joined by Megan Sutcliffe, who is Principal Analyst for the Middle East
00:26and Africa at Sibylline.
00:28Megan, good to have you on set with us, usually join us from London, but good to have you physically
00:33here.
00:33Let's talk about that latest reporting from Axios, that these Gulf leaders that usually go to the UNGA are set
00:40to meet with President Trump to discuss the post-war vision for the region.
00:45What do you think would be discussed there? And do you think that they have sway over the course or
00:49the trajectory of this conflict?
00:51Good morning, Abir. They certainly have sway over the course of the conflict.
00:55And the series of meetings between Gulf leaders and President Trump in the context of the UNGA is really quite
01:01historic.
01:02It was last year that we saw a similar meeting resulting in the broad adoption of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire
01:07and the post-war plan for Gaza.
01:09So there is certainly context here.
01:11And when we're looking at what we're most likely to see, the United States and its Gulf partners discussing next
01:16week in New York,
01:18really what this comes down to is how exactly the Gulf plans to resolve the crisis in the Strait of
01:23Hormuz.
01:23For the past few weeks, there have been prolonged negotiations between Iran and Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz,
01:29broadly speaking in terms of allowing vessels to enter via Iranian waters, exit via Emirati and Omani waters,
01:36and vessels paying a service fee in order to do so.
01:39But there is division within the Gulf over the exact terms of that agreement.
01:43And there is, of course, major sticking points when it comes to those relations with the United States
01:48and what that means for the U.S.'s role in the region.
01:50So this is likely going to be the forum for at least attempting to resolve those differences
01:55and create some form of common understanding before signing such an agreement with Tehran.
02:00Maggie, do you think we're going to see a return of that agreement between Oman and Iran and the Gulf
02:07nations
02:07to restore some kind of traffic movement in the Strait of Hormuz?
02:10Because it was in the final stages for the longest period.
02:13We don't know much about it now.
02:15Absolutely. And it's really been Schrodinger's deal.
02:18It both has existed and has not existed for several weeks.
02:21And so what we are likely to see is at least some effort towards concretising that understanding and that agreement.
02:27That's not a guarantee it'll be signed. It's not a guarantee it will be implemented.
02:31And even if it was, we're unlikely to see the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz being resolved before the
02:36end of 2026
02:38because of the myriad challenges to shipping that still exist.
02:41So it's not a guarantee. However, this particular platform and this particular type of dialogue is a positive sign
02:47and it potentially will lead us towards that agreement being signed more quickly.
02:51When it comes to the parallel fighting that has picked up over the past few weeks, of course,
02:56affecting Saudi Arabia's lifeline, the east-west pipeline that it's been resorting to to get its shipments across to the
03:04Red Sea,
03:05what do you think would bring the Houthis that have been kind of the main culprit in those attacks back
03:11to the negotiating table?
03:12Because we've reported that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had reached out to President Trump
03:16or there have been widely circulated reports about that.
03:20President Trump said no. What do you think would bring the Houthis back to the table?
03:23Well, right now the Houthis are aiming to maximise their leverage over Saudi Arabia
03:28in order to get the best possible deal that they can when it comes to a ceasefire,
03:33both between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, but also regarding the broader resolution of Yemen's civil war,
03:38essentially the conflict between the Houthis and the internationally recognised government.
03:42The Houthis are likely going to continue maintaining that pressure.
03:46And so the lightning offensive that we saw targeting Mokka as well as Perim Island,
03:49and now likely the increasingly offensive operations that we're seeing in southern Yemen,
03:55those will likely continue as the Houthis attempt to really maximise that pressure.
03:59And the Houthis, just as Iran, are very aware of the fact that essentially all they need to do is
04:04sit and wait.
04:05Because the longer that the disruption to the Gulf persists,
04:08the more acute that economic pressure becomes on Saudi Arabia and the United States.
04:12Therefore, the more advantageous those terms are going to be following negotiations.
04:16Unfortunately, though, for Saudi Arabia, negotiating right now would mean negotiating from a place of weakness.
04:22There's been a major setback to the Saudi-backed forces within Yemen.
04:26So it's unlikely that we're going to see Saudi Arabia making major concessions at this point in time.
04:31So the Houthis are likely going to be relatively reticent to coming back to the table.
04:35So, Megan, is there a diplomatic off-ramp still, or are we in for a more protracted war even?
04:40It is entirely possible that there will be diplomatic off-ramps,
04:43and that is likely something we're going to see being discussed at the UN General Assembly.
04:47Of course, Oman has played an absolutely crucial role in bringing Saudi Arabia and the Houthis to the negotiating table,
04:53and they are one of the main conduits of the 2022 roadmap to peace.
04:57So we'll likely see those efforts intensifying as well.
05:00However, at this point in time, both Iran and the Houthis feel empowered
05:05regarding the leverage that they have gained over the region,
05:07and so anything less than what they perceive to be a capitulation to their negotiating positions,
05:13unfortunately, they're likely going to reject that out the door and opt for continued conflict.
05:17Let's talk about what is happening physically on the ground.
05:19There have been attacks on a major energy infrastructure.
05:22Of course, the latest has affected the East-West pipeline that we've been talking about over the past couple of
05:26days.
05:27Megan, do you think that those energy attacks or the attacks on vital infrastructure
05:31changed the way these Gulf countries look at their security policies and their partners around the world?
05:37They absolutely have.
05:39But, of course, attacks targeting energy facilities are nothing new, unfortunately, within the Gulf.
05:43This was something that we saw in the first phase of the conflict between the Houthis and the Saudis,
05:48and also something that impacted the Emirates.
05:50So it's not necessarily a new development.
05:53However, the intensity of the attacks that we've seen targeting energy facilities is relatively new.
05:58This is a major re-escalation.
06:00And so what this speaks to is essentially a renewed Houthi appetite for conflict with Saudi Arabia,
06:06a renewed confidence in their abilities.
06:08Taking away that confidence is going to be very, very challenging.
06:11And so essentially what we're likely going to see is Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations
06:16attempting to diversify their security relationships, both between one another,
06:21for example, as we saw in the Mecca defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan,
06:25but also in terms of their defense suppliers, not simply relying on U.S. supply chains,
06:30which, of course, are going to face major, major delays after this current phase of the conflict ends,
06:35but also in terms of systems that are interoperable with U.S. systems,
06:38like those in South Korea or those from France.
06:40So we're going to see diversification.
06:42That doesn't necessarily mean efficiency or efficacy,
06:45but it does mean a changing strategic landscape, particularly for the United States.
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