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Something wild is happening in Iran! Hardliners and moderates are clashing, rogue missile strikes are sparking chaos, and global oil prices are going haywire. Want to know how power struggles in Tehran can hit your wallet? Dive in for the full story! Don't forget to subscribe for more breaking news and let us know in the comments what surprised you most! #News #Iran #Oil #Politics #WorldEvents
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0:00 - Overview of Iran's Internal Strife
0:22 - Unilateral Military Actions and Leadership Tensions
1:16 - Escalation and Political Fallout in Iran
1:57 - Regional Impact: Houthi Attacks and Oil Prices
3:42 - Leadership Crisis and Suspicion in Iran
4:29 - Rouhani’s Opposition and Political Divides
7:16 - Global Economic Repercussions and Outlook
👉 This channel was created in collaboration with https://www.youtube.com/@센서스튜디오
0:00 - Overview of Iran's Internal Strife
0:22 - Unilateral Military Actions and Leadership Tensions
1:16 - Escalation and Political Fallout in Iran
1:57 - Regional Impact: Houthi Attacks and Oil Prices
3:42 - Leadership Crisis and Suspicion in Iran
4:29 - Rouhani’s Opposition and Political Divides
7:16 - Global Economic Repercussions and Outlook
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NewsTranscript
00:00Something very strange is happening in Iran right now.
00:01It's a place where conflicts between hardliners and moderates are breaking out within the country.
00:05The hardliners are arbitrarily firing missiles at merchant ships,
00:08trying to escalate the war even further.
00:09Today, let's take a proper look at this issue.
00:11Let's dive right in.
00:12Before we begin, for those of you who want the fastest international news in the country,
00:15please make sure to tune in to SPH News.
00:17I'd really appreciate it.
00:18Conflicts between hardliners and moderates in Iran continue.
00:21According to reports from the New York Times,
00:23Iranian hardliners attacked three merchant vessels,
00:25including a Qatari LNG carrier, to provoke a war with the United States.
00:28They carried out these strikes without the approval of the Iranian government,
00:31and on top of that, without even reporting.
00:32It beforehand, according to reports,
00:34the Revolutionary Guard simply attacked the Qatari merchant ships following orders from the hardliners.
00:38Consequently, the ceasefire has effectively gone up in smoke,
00:41with things playing out just as the hardliners wanted.
00:43Upon hearing the news of this attack,
00:45Iranian President Pazeshkian personally called Revolutionary Guard Commander-in-Chief Ahmadi Vahidi,
00:50shouting at him, rebuking it as a reckless act, and demanding that he take responsibility.
00:54Iranian President Pazeshkian is considered a moderate,
00:56while Revolutionary Guard Commander-in-Chief Ahmadi Vahidi belongs to the hardline faction.
01:00Interestingly, Commander Vahidi explained that he didn't even know about the attack beforehand.
01:03Even the Supreme National Security Council, which oversees Iran's security policy,
01:07was reportedly unaware of the attack plan.
01:09This implies that Iran currently has completely lost control over certain military factions,
01:12meaning they acted unilaterally without the prior approval of the top leadership.
01:15Following this attack, the United States resumed strikes against Iran,
01:18effectively nullifying the memorandum of understanding for an end to the war between the two nations.
01:22Currently, internal strife between hardliners and moderates in Iran continues unabated.
01:26In fact, according to a report by the New York Times,
01:29shouting erupted during leadership meetings,
01:31and two general-level officials even pressured the leadership by expressing their intent to resign.
01:34The problem is that the hardliners' reckless actions seem to actually be solidifying their own standing.
01:38Furthermore, the internal conflict led to a reshuffling of the Supreme National Security Council.
01:41The new Supreme Leader appointed Mohsen Rezaei,
01:42a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,
01:44with extensive political experience, as the head of the National Security Council.
01:47It was judged that he was the right person to mediate between the opposing political and politico-military factions.
01:52However, ideological conflicts were not resolved,
01:54and recently, the hardliners advocating for escalation have secured a stronger position.
01:57This clash between hardliners and moderates eventually spread beyond Iran's borders,
02:01and Yemen's Houthi rebels, over whom Iran has long exercised influence, emerged as a critical variable.
02:06Military hardliners, including Commander Majid Mousavi of the IRGC Aerospace Force,
02:10sought to expand the military confrontation with the U.S. by using proxies like the Houthi rebels and Iraqi Shiite
02:15militias.
02:16They were reportedly proposing to actively utilize the so-called axis of resistance.
02:19Back then, the hardliners proposed a plan to shake up oil prices,
02:22specifically by attacking Saudi Arabia's energy facilities.
02:24The Houthi rebels, in particular, carried out repeated attacks on Saudi oil installations and pipelines.
02:28In Saudi Arabia, as it is a major global oil producer,
02:31if an issue arises at its key petroleum facilities,
02:33the impact doesn't just stop within Saudi borders.
02:35The pipelines that transport the extracted crude to terminals, along with the refineries,
02:39storage facilities, and more could disrupt actual crude supply and shipping schedules if attacked.
02:43In fact, when Houthi attacks shut down Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline for up to five weeks,
02:48it sent massive shockwaves through the global energy market.
02:50The East-West Pipeline is a critical transport network that carries crude oil produced in eastern Saudi Arabia to the
02:55Red Sea.
02:55It's a key route used to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.
02:58So if even this comes under attack,
03:00Saudi Arabia will inevitably face severe restrictions in rerouting its crude oil.
03:04Particularly, if tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate at the same time,
03:06concerns over supply disruptions in the energy market will grow significantly larger.
03:09In fact, with simultaneous attacks on maritime transport and energy facilities continuing across the Middle East recently,
03:14international oil prices have also fluctuated wildly.
03:17Both Brent and WTI crude even climbed past $100.
03:20The reason this matters is that when Iranian hardliners ramp up military pressure,
03:23directly going to war with the United States isn't their only.
03:26Option.
03:27By pressuring Saudi oil facilities or key shipping lanes around the Red Sea through allied militant groups,
03:31they can put immense strain on the US, Saudi Arabia, and the entire global energy market.
03:35If that happens, the military clash leads to energy supply instability across the entire Middle East,
03:40which could ultimately drive up global oil prices.
03:42Behind the growing internal conflict was also the prolonged absence of the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
03:47In Iran's system, the Supreme Leader stands above both the President and Parliament,
03:50holding the final authority to coordinate major political and military affairs.
03:53But...
03:53However, since ascending to the position of Supreme Leader in March 2026,
03:57Mojtaba Khamenei had not appeared in public for a long time,
04:00nor had he delivered any public speeches in his own voice.
04:02Being largely confirmed, the problem didn't end there.
04:05Although certain written statements and messages were released under his name,
04:08whether Mojtaba himself actually wrote or approved them was constantly called into question.
04:12Because of this, it is reported that even President Pozeshkian grew suspicious.
04:16As the Supreme Leader's public activities remained restricted for an extended period,
04:19questions began to mount within Iran over who was actually making decisions in his name.
04:23And whether the orders issued to the military truly reflected the Supreme Leader's intentions,
04:29This actually ended up intensifying the conflict between moderates and hardliners.
04:33While hardliners currently hold significant sway in Iran,
04:35forces openly challenging this situation continue to emerge.
04:39A prime example is Hassan.
04:41Rouhani, the former president.
04:42Former President Rouhani has argued that they must ask the people
04:44how long they intend to continue this war with the United States.
04:47His point is that if the majority of the people want to end the war,
04:50we must honour their will and decide to end the war.
04:52This drew attention because it asserts that deciding whether to continue the war
04:55shouldn't rest solely with the military and political elite,
04:57but should be determined by the will of the people.
04:59In particular, former President Rouhani argued that we must consider
05:02the mounting economic costs and social damage
05:04the Iranian people will have to bear if the war drags on.
05:07He stressed that rather than treating the continuation of the war as an end in itself,
05:10we must seek an exit strategy by taking both national security
05:13and the economic situation into account.
05:15Remarks like these are bound to clash directly with the hardliners,
05:17who insist on continuing the war.
05:19The hardliners are harshly criticizing Rouhani's remarks.
05:21Some are even arguing that calling for an end to the war
05:23while fighting continues is an act that undermines the nation's military response.
05:28Some hardliners have strongly pushed back,
05:30framing Rouhani's remarks as bordering on treasonous.
05:33This reveals just how deeply divided views on the war are within Iran itself.
05:38Rouhani's call for a referendum is significant
05:40because it brings these internal conflicts out into the open in the political arena.
05:43But this raises a question.
05:45Why are Iranian hardliners going this far
05:46to maintain a military confrontation with the United States?
05:49To simply attribute this to anti-American hostility
05:52overlooks the political interests at play domestically.
05:54If talks with the U.S. progress, sanctions relief,
05:56and economic normalization become more likely,
05:58and in that scenario, diplomacy and economic recovery
06:01could boost the political clout of the moderates who champion them.
06:04Conversely, if talks fall through and military tensions escalate,
06:07the Revolutionary Guard and the hardliners
06:09overseeing defense and national security
06:10could see their influence swell instead.
06:13Right now, Iranian hardliners aren't focused on building up the nation's power.
06:16They're fixated on preserving and expanding their own influence,
06:18especially as long as the war drags on.
06:20The level of military organizations expands in the name of national security,
06:23and the argument that military action should take priority
06:24over diplomatic compromise gains traction.
06:26From the hardliners' perspective,
06:27rather than easing relations through talks with the U.S.,
06:29maintaining a confrontation with the U.S.
06:31gives them a reason to believe that a tough stance
06:32is more advantageous for securing their own political standing.
06:35In fact, Iranian hardliners are likely to view politicians
06:37who take a relatively flexible approach
06:38toward negotiations with the U.S.,
06:40much like former President Rouhani,
06:42with fierce criticism.
06:43Conversely, when moderates pursue easing sanctions
06:45and economic recovery through negotiations,
06:47people's living conditions have a chance to improve,
06:49which can highlight the political achievements
06:50of both the government and the pro-negotiation faction.
06:53This kind of change inevitably becomes a burden
06:55for factions that have built their influence
06:56around military confrontation.
06:58Therefore, rather than simply concluding
07:00that hardliners want war at all costs,
07:02it is more accurate to see that they have a political stake
07:05in maintaining their influence
07:06amid ongoing military tensions.
07:08Looking at Iran's current conflict,
07:10it's not just about whether the war will continue or end,
07:12but also about who will hold political hegemony after the war.
07:14They are intertwined,
07:16and as Iran's internal conflicts intensify,
07:18one of the first to react is the international oil market.
07:21Up until now,
07:21it seemed like an internal political conflict in Iran,
07:23but in reality,
07:24the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea,
07:26even Saudi Arabia's energy facilities
07:27are connected to this,
07:28affecting the entire world.
07:29In particular,
07:30as even Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline came under attack,
07:32their ability to transport crude oil
07:34through alternative routes
07:35has also been compromised.
07:36On top of that,
07:37with shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz
07:38becoming unstable,
07:39the market now considers potential crude supply cuts
07:41as its primary concern.
07:43In fact,
07:43Brent crude has now surpassed $100 per bar rel,
07:46hovering around $107,
07:47and USWTI has also broken through the $100 mark.
07:50Over the past day alone,
07:51both benchmarks rose by over 2%,
07:53keeping prices at some of the highest levels seen this year.
07:55The problem is that when oil prices surge,
07:57it's not just the price at the pump that goes up.
07:59Crude oil price increases,
08:00drive up shipping costs,
08:01and affect airfares and diesel prices.
08:03For businesses,
08:04the costs of manufacturing and transporting goods rise,
08:06while for consumers,
08:07the prices of groceries and everyday essentials also climb.
08:09Including to the overall burden.
08:10In particular,
08:11since Europe is heavily reliant on energy imports,
08:13any prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East
08:15will inevitably weigh heavily
08:16on both inflation and the economy.
08:18In the US as well,
08:19rising gasoline and diesel prices
08:20increase consumer spending burdens
08:21and can reignite inflation.
08:22In fact,
08:23with gasoline and diesel prices
08:24climbing sharply in the US recently,
08:25due to rising oil prices,
08:27concerns over inflation are growing once again.
08:28The bigger problem
08:29is that it is hard to assess
08:30the current rise in oil prices
08:32based only on the possibility
08:33that the situation will end after a single attack.
08:35If hardliners within Iran
08:36continue to maintain their influence,
08:37and attacks through armed groups
08:39like the Houthis and Iraqi factions persist,
08:41anxiety over energy facilities
08:42and key maritime transport routes
08:43could also persist.
08:44If that happens,
08:45there's a strong chance
08:46international oil prices
08:47won't easily come down
08:47from their elevated levels.
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