00:00Something very strange is happening in Iran right now.
00:01It's a place where conflicts between hardliners and moderates are breaking out within the country.
00:05The hardliners are arbitrarily firing missiles at merchant ships,
00:08trying to escalate the war even further.
00:09Today, let's take a proper look at this issue.
00:11Let's dive right in.
00:12Before we begin, for those of you who want the fastest international news in the country,
00:15please make sure to tune in to SPH News.
00:17I'd really appreciate it.
00:18Conflicts between hardliners and moderates in Iran continue.
00:21According to reports from the New York Times,
00:23Iranian hardliners attacked three merchant vessels,
00:25including a Qatari LNG carrier, to provoke a war with the United States.
00:28They carried out these strikes without the approval of the Iranian government,
00:31and on top of that, without even reporting.
00:32It beforehand, according to reports,
00:34the Revolutionary Guard simply attacked the Qatari merchant ships following orders from the hardliners.
00:38Consequently, the ceasefire has effectively gone up in smoke,
00:41with things playing out just as the hardliners wanted.
00:43Upon hearing the news of this attack,
00:45Iranian President Pazeshkian personally called Revolutionary Guard Commander-in-Chief Ahmadi Vahidi,
00:50shouting at him, rebuking it as a reckless act, and demanding that he take responsibility.
00:54Iranian President Pazeshkian is considered a moderate,
00:56while Revolutionary Guard Commander-in-Chief Ahmadi Vahidi belongs to the hardline faction.
01:00Interestingly, Commander Vahidi explained that he didn't even know about the attack beforehand.
01:03Even the Supreme National Security Council, which oversees Iran's security policy,
01:07was reportedly unaware of the attack plan.
01:09This implies that Iran currently has completely lost control over certain military factions,
01:12meaning they acted unilaterally without the prior approval of the top leadership.
01:15Following this attack, the United States resumed strikes against Iran,
01:18effectively nullifying the memorandum of understanding for an end to the war between the two nations.
01:22Currently, internal strife between hardliners and moderates in Iran continues unabated.
01:26In fact, according to a report by the New York Times,
01:29shouting erupted during leadership meetings,
01:31and two general-level officials even pressured the leadership by expressing their intent to resign.
01:34The problem is that the hardliners' reckless actions seem to actually be solidifying their own standing.
01:38Furthermore, the internal conflict led to a reshuffling of the Supreme National Security Council.
01:41The new Supreme Leader appointed Mohsen Rezaei,
01:42a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,
01:44with extensive political experience, as the head of the National Security Council.
01:47It was judged that he was the right person to mediate between the opposing political and politico-military factions.
01:52However, ideological conflicts were not resolved,
01:54and recently, the hardliners advocating for escalation have secured a stronger position.
01:57This clash between hardliners and moderates eventually spread beyond Iran's borders,
02:01and Yemen's Houthi rebels, over whom Iran has long exercised influence, emerged as a critical variable.
02:06Military hardliners, including Commander Majid Mousavi of the IRGC Aerospace Force,
02:10sought to expand the military confrontation with the U.S. by using proxies like the Houthi rebels and Iraqi Shiite
02:15militias.
02:16They were reportedly proposing to actively utilize the so-called axis of resistance.
02:19Back then, the hardliners proposed a plan to shake up oil prices,
02:22specifically by attacking Saudi Arabia's energy facilities.
02:24The Houthi rebels, in particular, carried out repeated attacks on Saudi oil installations and pipelines.
02:28In Saudi Arabia, as it is a major global oil producer,
02:31if an issue arises at its key petroleum facilities,
02:33the impact doesn't just stop within Saudi borders.
02:35The pipelines that transport the extracted crude to terminals, along with the refineries,
02:39storage facilities, and more could disrupt actual crude supply and shipping schedules if attacked.
02:43In fact, when Houthi attacks shut down Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline for up to five weeks,
02:48it sent massive shockwaves through the global energy market.
02:50The East-West Pipeline is a critical transport network that carries crude oil produced in eastern Saudi Arabia to the
02:55Red Sea.
02:55It's a key route used to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.
02:58So if even this comes under attack,
03:00Saudi Arabia will inevitably face severe restrictions in rerouting its crude oil.
03:04Particularly, if tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate at the same time,
03:06concerns over supply disruptions in the energy market will grow significantly larger.
03:09In fact, with simultaneous attacks on maritime transport and energy facilities continuing across the Middle East recently,
03:14international oil prices have also fluctuated wildly.
03:17Both Brent and WTI crude even climbed past $100.
03:20The reason this matters is that when Iranian hardliners ramp up military pressure,
03:23directly going to war with the United States isn't their only.
03:26Option.
03:27By pressuring Saudi oil facilities or key shipping lanes around the Red Sea through allied militant groups,
03:31they can put immense strain on the US, Saudi Arabia, and the entire global energy market.
03:35If that happens, the military clash leads to energy supply instability across the entire Middle East,
03:40which could ultimately drive up global oil prices.
03:42Behind the growing internal conflict was also the prolonged absence of the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
03:47In Iran's system, the Supreme Leader stands above both the President and Parliament,
03:50holding the final authority to coordinate major political and military affairs.
03:53But...
03:53However, since ascending to the position of Supreme Leader in March 2026,
03:57Mojtaba Khamenei had not appeared in public for a long time,
04:00nor had he delivered any public speeches in his own voice.
04:02Being largely confirmed, the problem didn't end there.
04:05Although certain written statements and messages were released under his name,
04:08whether Mojtaba himself actually wrote or approved them was constantly called into question.
04:12Because of this, it is reported that even President Pozeshkian grew suspicious.
04:16As the Supreme Leader's public activities remained restricted for an extended period,
04:19questions began to mount within Iran over who was actually making decisions in his name.
04:23And whether the orders issued to the military truly reflected the Supreme Leader's intentions,
04:29This actually ended up intensifying the conflict between moderates and hardliners.
04:33While hardliners currently hold significant sway in Iran,
04:35forces openly challenging this situation continue to emerge.
04:39A prime example is Hassan.
04:41Rouhani, the former president.
04:42Former President Rouhani has argued that they must ask the people
04:44how long they intend to continue this war with the United States.
04:47His point is that if the majority of the people want to end the war,
04:50we must honour their will and decide to end the war.
04:52This drew attention because it asserts that deciding whether to continue the war
04:55shouldn't rest solely with the military and political elite,
04:57but should be determined by the will of the people.
04:59In particular, former President Rouhani argued that we must consider
05:02the mounting economic costs and social damage
05:04the Iranian people will have to bear if the war drags on.
05:07He stressed that rather than treating the continuation of the war as an end in itself,
05:10we must seek an exit strategy by taking both national security
05:13and the economic situation into account.
05:15Remarks like these are bound to clash directly with the hardliners,
05:17who insist on continuing the war.
05:19The hardliners are harshly criticizing Rouhani's remarks.
05:21Some are even arguing that calling for an end to the war
05:23while fighting continues is an act that undermines the nation's military response.
05:28Some hardliners have strongly pushed back,
05:30framing Rouhani's remarks as bordering on treasonous.
05:33This reveals just how deeply divided views on the war are within Iran itself.
05:38Rouhani's call for a referendum is significant
05:40because it brings these internal conflicts out into the open in the political arena.
05:43But this raises a question.
05:45Why are Iranian hardliners going this far
05:46to maintain a military confrontation with the United States?
05:49To simply attribute this to anti-American hostility
05:52overlooks the political interests at play domestically.
05:54If talks with the U.S. progress, sanctions relief,
05:56and economic normalization become more likely,
05:58and in that scenario, diplomacy and economic recovery
06:01could boost the political clout of the moderates who champion them.
06:04Conversely, if talks fall through and military tensions escalate,
06:07the Revolutionary Guard and the hardliners
06:09overseeing defense and national security
06:10could see their influence swell instead.
06:13Right now, Iranian hardliners aren't focused on building up the nation's power.
06:16They're fixated on preserving and expanding their own influence,
06:18especially as long as the war drags on.
06:20The level of military organizations expands in the name of national security,
06:23and the argument that military action should take priority
06:24over diplomatic compromise gains traction.
06:26From the hardliners' perspective,
06:27rather than easing relations through talks with the U.S.,
06:29maintaining a confrontation with the U.S.
06:31gives them a reason to believe that a tough stance
06:32is more advantageous for securing their own political standing.
06:35In fact, Iranian hardliners are likely to view politicians
06:37who take a relatively flexible approach
06:38toward negotiations with the U.S.,
06:40much like former President Rouhani,
06:42with fierce criticism.
06:43Conversely, when moderates pursue easing sanctions
06:45and economic recovery through negotiations,
06:47people's living conditions have a chance to improve,
06:49which can highlight the political achievements
06:50of both the government and the pro-negotiation faction.
06:53This kind of change inevitably becomes a burden
06:55for factions that have built their influence
06:56around military confrontation.
06:58Therefore, rather than simply concluding
07:00that hardliners want war at all costs,
07:02it is more accurate to see that they have a political stake
07:05in maintaining their influence
07:06amid ongoing military tensions.
07:08Looking at Iran's current conflict,
07:10it's not just about whether the war will continue or end,
07:12but also about who will hold political hegemony after the war.
07:14They are intertwined,
07:16and as Iran's internal conflicts intensify,
07:18one of the first to react is the international oil market.
07:21Up until now,
07:21it seemed like an internal political conflict in Iran,
07:23but in reality,
07:24the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea,
07:26even Saudi Arabia's energy facilities
07:27are connected to this,
07:28affecting the entire world.
07:29In particular,
07:30as even Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline came under attack,
07:32their ability to transport crude oil
07:34through alternative routes
07:35has also been compromised.
07:36On top of that,
07:37with shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz
07:38becoming unstable,
07:39the market now considers potential crude supply cuts
07:41as its primary concern.
07:43In fact,
07:43Brent crude has now surpassed $100 per bar rel,
07:46hovering around $107,
07:47and USWTI has also broken through the $100 mark.
07:50Over the past day alone,
07:51both benchmarks rose by over 2%,
07:53keeping prices at some of the highest levels seen this year.
07:55The problem is that when oil prices surge,
07:57it's not just the price at the pump that goes up.
07:59Crude oil price increases,
08:00drive up shipping costs,
08:01and affect airfares and diesel prices.
08:03For businesses,
08:04the costs of manufacturing and transporting goods rise,
08:06while for consumers,
08:07the prices of groceries and everyday essentials also climb.
08:09Including to the overall burden.
08:10In particular,
08:11since Europe is heavily reliant on energy imports,
08:13any prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East
08:15will inevitably weigh heavily
08:16on both inflation and the economy.
08:18In the US as well,
08:19rising gasoline and diesel prices
08:20increase consumer spending burdens
08:21and can reignite inflation.
08:22In fact,
08:23with gasoline and diesel prices
08:24climbing sharply in the US recently,
08:25due to rising oil prices,
08:27concerns over inflation are growing once again.
08:28The bigger problem
08:29is that it is hard to assess
08:30the current rise in oil prices
08:32based only on the possibility
08:33that the situation will end after a single attack.
08:35If hardliners within Iran
08:36continue to maintain their influence,
08:37and attacks through armed groups
08:39like the Houthis and Iraqi factions persist,
08:41anxiety over energy facilities
08:42and key maritime transport routes
08:43could also persist.
08:44If that happens,
08:45there's a strong chance
08:46international oil prices
08:47won't easily come down
08:47from their elevated levels.
