00:00Hi! You're watching the Paulada na Cara channel. My name is Marcos.
00:03Datatrends released its research today.
00:06And Correio Brasiliense published the story during lunchtime.
00:08I was supposed to do this report earlier, but I couldn't find it.
00:12I think the page was updating at the time.
00:15In this poll, Lula appears to be leading in the first round.
00:18However, it's not here, and it's a technical draw in the second round.
00:21But in one scenario, Lula is behind.
00:24This is the scenario that Flávio Bolsonaro is turning against Lula.
00:28Let's talk more about this. So, stay here and listen to what I have to say.
00:33In this survey conducted between the 12th and 14th of September,
00:37where we already grasp the entire scenario of pre-evaluation discussion of what occurred yesterday at the Supreme Federal Court,
00:43Lula appears to be leading in the first round, and is leading in most second-round scenarios.
00:47But there's a scenario where Flávio turns on Lula.
00:51The presidential race had this poll released today, September 16th.
00:55According to the Datatrends Institute poll, President Lula is leading with 39% of the vote intention in the first round.
01:03which is more or less what has been appearing in most institutes.
01:0539, 40, 41, 38, it keeps going like that... it keeps spinning around like that.
01:10And Senator Flávio Bolsonaro occupies second place, registering 35.
01:13Also more or less in that range in most institutions.
01:16Other names also score points, as was to be expected.
01:18Augusto Cury appears with 6%, Renan Santos with 4%, Ronaldo Caiado with 3%, and Romeu Zema with 1%.
01:23Blank and invalid votes total 4%, while undecided voters represent 8%.
01:28I always remember that the abstention rate on election day usually exceeds 20% in the first round, and if...
01:34It's approaching 25% in second place.
01:36This interview surveyed just over 2,000 voters distributed across all 27 states of the federation.
01:41between September 12th, 13th and 14th, Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
01:46The margin of error is 2.19 percentage points, which indicates a very high level of care taken with accuracy.
01:52numerical
01:53and with 95% reliability.
01:56The method used consisted of automated telephone interviews with an IVR (Interactive Voice Response) system.
02:00ensuring representativeness through statistical calibration of gender, age, education, and income.
02:06The survey is registered with the TSE under number BR 08691-2026.
02:13Datatrend simulated various scenarios in the second round and, in a possible confrontation between Lula and Flávio,
02:18The numbers show a technical balance.
02:20However, Flávio registers 45% of voting intentions compared to Lula's 44%.
02:26This is the only scenario in which Lula appears numerically behind.
02:29which, again, indicates how close this election will be in the second round.
02:33more or less like the 2022 election,
02:36where Lula did not reach a 2 percentage point lead over Jair Bolsonaro.
02:41In the other simulations, Lula appears numerically ahead.
02:45with 44% of voting intentions against 41% for Ronaldo Caiado.
02:50Again, if the difference is 2.19 percentage points,
02:53So the margin of error is just over 4 points, it's 4.38.
02:58So anything up to 4 points is a technical draw.
03:00Between Lula and Caiado, we have a 3-point difference.
03:02Against Augusto Cury, we have 52% to 47%.
03:06That's how you break free from the technical tie.
03:09But is it exactly 37% or is it 37.5%?
03:1337.49.
03:15Lula has 42%, but is it actually 41.9%?
03:17What is it?
03:18That 10% will only be in the full version of the material.
03:20which should be released tomorrow or the day after.
03:22Against Zema, Lula gets very excited.
03:2446% to 39%.
03:26This goes well beyond the margin of error.
03:27There is a 7-point difference.
03:28The scenario with Renan Santos was not tested.
03:31Renan would probably have a similar result to Zema.
03:34as has been the case in other surveys.
03:36Research was also conducted on the evaluation of the government.
03:3813% consider the management excellent, 15% rate it as good.
03:41That is, 28%.
03:42That's more or less it.
03:43From 25% to 30% of all surveys,
03:45Lula's government is rated as good or excellent.
03:48The regular rating is giving it 19%.
03:50It also rotates slightly up or down by 20%.
03:53Already bad and terrible,
03:55It's showing 23% here.
03:57Out of bad, 28% are terrible.
03:5951%.
04:00This is something that is constant.
04:02Half of the Brazilian population is rejecting
04:05The way Lula's administration is being run.
04:07It was also asked,
04:08The way Lula is running the country was also highlighted.
04:10Here is the figure, the character Lula,
04:14It ends up being relevant,
04:15because it's kind of like a fan fight,
04:17where there are a lot of people who vote for Lula,
04:18not because he is left-wing,
04:20but because it's Lula,
04:21because he is the character.
04:22The same scenario was happening with Jair Bolsonaro.
04:24where his rating was even higher
04:26than what would actually be considered normal,
04:30Given the problems he had,
04:32especially in confrontations with journalists.
04:34Because the journalistic class of the country
04:37hates Bolsonaro,
04:38not because it's Bolsonaro,
04:40simply,
04:40but because he is such a rival of Lula,
04:42because he was a guy who worked
04:45alongside the repression
04:46and is a defender of the practices
04:48of the former military dictatorship
04:50against the opponents.
04:51Ironically,
04:52several of these techniques were used.
04:54by Alexandre de Moraes
04:55to pursue him and his family
04:57after defeat in 2022.
04:59There's a lesson here, right?
05:00One should not defend anyone's mistakes.
05:02Today's news is short,
05:04Because there isn't much to analyze.
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05:11Thanks.
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