00:00U.S. intelligence officials have stated that there will be no invasion of Taiwan in 2027.
00:04This breaks the theory that China would invade in 2027, which the U.S. had claimed, until now.
00:07Let's take a closer look at this today.
00:09Let's take a look right away.
00:10The annual report from the U.S. intelligence community was released this March.
00:13This intelligence community is an organization that oversees the intelligence agencies under the U.S. federal government.
00:17It's a key intelligence body that reports directly to the president.
00:20According to this report, the current Chinese leadership is not planning an invasion of Taiwan in 2027
00:24and has not set a specific timeline for achieving unification.
00:27Of course, it also added that the Chinese military is steadily building up its capability to occupy Taiwan.
00:33In fact, until now, international political circles had almost taken the theory of a Taiwan war in 2027 as a
00:38given.
00:38High-ranking officials in U.S. governing intelligence agencies, military leaders, and various military experts
00:42all pointed to 2027 as the most dangerous period.
00:45The reason was very clear.
00:47It was because of President Xi Jinping's political schedule.
00:49China holds a National Congress of the Communist Party every five years to reorganize its top leadership,
00:54and 2027 is the year when the 21st Party Congress will be held.
00:58Now that President Xi Jinping has already succeeded in securing a fourth term,
01:01many analysts believe that he needs a historic achievement to further solidify his de facto lifelong rule.
01:06And the most frequently mentioned achievement is the Taiwan issue.
01:09In particular, President Xi Jinping has repeatedly emphasized that national reunification must be achieved.
01:13He has also publicly stated that he would not rule out the use of force if necessary.
01:16That's why there has been a rapid spread of speculation in the West
01:19that Xi Jinping may try to resolve the Taiwan issue before the 2027 Party Congress.
01:23In fact, officials from the U.S. Department of Defense and the CIA
01:26have mentioned that the Chinese military was instructed to complete preparations for an invasion by 2027.
01:31This is where the term Davidson Window comes into play.
01:34It was a warning that China could take action before 2027.
01:37However, this recent report from the U.S. government intelligence community
01:40has completely overturned this atmosphere.
01:42It officially stated that the current Chinese leadership is not planning an invasion of Taiwan in 2027.
01:46For the international community, this was a rather shocking change.
01:49Because the threat, assessment, and direction that the U.S. has continuously emphasized until now have changed.
01:54What's even more surprising is that the report also included the assessment
01:57that China prefers unification without the use of force if possible.
02:00This doesn't mean that China has given up on the Taiwan issue,
02:02but rather it is interpreted as a signal that China is shifting the focus of its strategy
02:06toward combining economic, political, and military pressure over the long term
02:09rather than immediately choosing the extreme option of invasion.
02:12In fact, from China's perspective, there are many analyses suggesting
02:14that there isn't much reason to take the extreme step of invading Taiwan right now.
02:17That's because the current international situation isn't necessarily developing
02:20in a way that's very disadvantageous to China.
02:22On the contrary, as time goes by, the U.S.-centered order is becoming more unstable,
02:26and the number of countries harboring resentment against the U.S. is steadily increasing.
02:29For China, rather than taking on enormous risks and jumping in prematurely,
02:33it may be more advantageous to take advantage of the current trends.
02:36Especially invading Taiwan would be a huge gamble for China as well.
02:39If China actually attacks Taiwan, it's highly likely that the war won't end with just Taiwan.
02:43Japan is almost certain to take action.
02:45For Japan, the moment Taiwan falls, even Okinawa will be under threat.
02:48That's why Japan has been preparing for a possible invasion of Taiwan for a long time.
02:52The Philippines is also constantly clashing with China over the South China Sea issue.
02:56It is highly likely that they will side with the United States.
02:58South Korea, regardless of whether it directly participates in the war,
03:01is very likely to be affected due to the issue of U.S. forces stationed in Korea and rear support.
03:05And the biggest variable is the United States.
03:07It's true that the United States is currently paying a lot of attention to issues in the Middle East.
03:10Problems like Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and energy security keep arising.
03:14However, most analyses suggest that the likelihood of the United States abandoning Taiwan is low.
03:18That's because Taiwan is absolutely central to the United States' Asia-Pacific strategy.
03:22If the United States appears to hand over Taiwan to China,
03:24it's highly likely that its allies will lose trust in America's security guarantees.
03:28Food trees like Japan, the Philippines, and Australia would inevitably feel uneasy as well.
03:32If that happens, the very dominance of the United States in the Indo-Pacific could be shaken.
03:35China is also very well aware of this.
03:36So, from China's perspective,
03:38invading Taiwan would be a scenario where even victory would come with enormous costs.
03:42They would have to risk the possibility of military conflict with the United States
03:44and endure economic sanctions from the West, as well as the collapse of supply chains.
03:48Since the Chinese economy is no longer growing explosively like it did in the past,
03:51the burden would only become greater.
03:52On the other hand, if China can shake the U.S.-led order just by applying military pressure,
03:56expanding its economic influence, and engaging in diplomatic maneuvers like it is now,
03:59there isn't much reason for China to choose a risky all-out war.
04:02And there's another reason why China doesn't have to take the extreme risk of invading Taiwan
04:04or making a drastic move right now.
04:06It's because of the political situation inside Taiwan.
04:08Currently, the main opposition party in Taiwan, the Kuomintang, or KMT,
04:12has a strong pro-China trend within its ranks.
04:15In particular, the recent actions of KMT Chairman Zhang Rewan
04:18have been drawing a lot of attention from the international community.
04:20Chairman Zhang Rewan recently visited China himself and spent six days and five nights there.
04:24During this visit, he made some very strong statements.
04:26Chairman Zhang Rewan emphasized that both sides of the strait belong to one China.
04:29He went further and even said that people on both sides of the strait are all Chinese and are one
04:34family.
04:34In effect, he publicly delivered a message that is very close to the one China principle that China claims.
04:39But that's not all.
04:39Chairman Zhang Rewan also expressed a negative view on external intervention,
04:43saying that matters across the strait are family affairs for people on both sides.
04:46In other words, he gave the impression of criticizing the involvement of external forces
04:49like the United States in the Taiwan issue.
04:51He also said that people on both sides of the strait can solve their own problems
04:54and have enough wisdom and ability to do so.
04:56From China's perspective, these are very welcome remarks.
04:59And Chairman Zhang Rewan also raised the level of criticism against the Democratic Progressive Party,
05:02which is currently the ruling party in Taiwan.
05:04He argued that the Democratic Progressive Party is dividing families for the political goal of Taiwan independence
05:08and is failing to win public support.
05:09In particular, he strongly criticized the Democratic Progressive Party over the issue of military buildup.
05:14He criticized Taiwan's continued import of American weapons
05:16and the strengthening of military training as acts of preparing for war.
05:19This argument is very similar to the logic that the Chinese government usually uses
05:22when attacking the Democratic Progressive Party.
05:24And the most important statement is about the 1992 Consensus Chairman Zhang Rewan
05:27emphasized that the political foundation of the 1992 Consensus
05:30and opposition to Taiwan independence is still valid today.
05:32The 1992 Consensus mentioned here refers to a kind of political agreement made in 1992
05:37where China and Taiwan agreed that there is only one China,
05:39but each side would have its own interpretation of what that means.
05:42China sees the 1992 Consensus as the key to stability in cross-straight relations,
05:45and Chairman Zhang Rewan publicly emphasized this again.
05:47For China, this is a very positive development.
05:49Even without going to war, pro-China forces are expanding their influence within Taiwan,
05:53and the conflict between the Democratic Progressive Party and the Kuomintang is also growing.
05:56So, now, there is analysis that China is maintaining military pressure
05:59while at the same time focusing more on expanding its political and economic influence.
06:03That doesn't mean we can be reassured by the current situation.
06:05That's because China is continuing to build up its military power even at this very moment.
06:09The Chinese Navy has already grown to the largest scale in the world,
06:11and its carrier strike groups, amphibious assault capabilities,
06:14and short-range missile forces are also being rapidly strengthened.
06:16In addition, its air force, drone capabilities, and cyber warfare capabilities are being enhanced at the same time.
06:21Just because U.S. intelligence agencies assess that China has no invasion plans for 2027,
06:25it doesn't mean China's military activities have decreased.
06:28On the contrary, military activities around Taiwan are becoming more and more intense.
06:31In particular, what China is most actively using right now is the so-called Gray Zone strategy.
06:35It's not a full-scale war, but it's a way of applying pressure that's almost at the brink of war.
06:39Chinese military fighter jets and warships are circling around Taiwan almost every day.
06:42Approaching Taiwan's air defense identification zone has now become routine.
06:45Large-scale military drills that simulate encircling Taiwan are even being conducted repeatedly.
06:50From China's perspective, they're aiming not only to gain real-world operational experience,
06:53but also to psychologically pressure Taiwan.
06:55As this situation continues, there are analyses suggesting that the fatigue level of the Taiwanese military is quite high.
07:00Every time Chinese military aircraft approach, Taiwan has to scramble its fighter jets,
07:03and the Navy also has to remain on constant alert.
07:05The problem is that the longer this tension continues, the greater the fatigue among the troops,
07:09and the higher the maintenance costs become.
07:10China can continue its pressure thanks to its massive military and economic power.
07:14But for Taiwan, the burden is inevitably much heavier.
07:16And another important point is that it's hard to take the U.S. assessment at face value.
07:21In international politics, because of this, some analysts suggest that the U.S. may be deliberately trying to manage tensions.
07:29It could be a strategic message to reassure China or to manage market instability.
07:33On the other hand, China might also be deliberately downplaying the possibility of an invasion to gauge the U.S.
07:38response.
07:38Above all, what's important is that China has never given up on the idea of unifying Taiwan by force.
07:43China still maintains the stance that it will not rule out the use of force if necessary.
07:47In fact, military pressure around Taiwan is actually increasing.
07:50Some men believe that the current situation is not so much a crisis, but rather entering a longer and more
07:54complicated phase.
07:56And there's another important point to pay attention to here.
07:58Right now, China is creating a structure where it can gradually pressure Taiwan without even having to fire a shot.
08:12In other words, the current cross-strait relationship is not peaceful just because there is no war.
08:17In fact, it's a state of prolonged pressure just without the sound of gunfire.
08:22That's why the international community is paying closer attention to how China will pressure Taiwan in the future,
08:27rather than focusing solely on the year 2027.
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