Wait... Are Argentina and the UK About to Go to WAR Over the Falklands?

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Become a Member Today and Unlock EXCLUSIVE Videos: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKfak8fBm_Lhy4eX9UKxEpA/join  Argentine President Javier Milei has reignited sovereign claims over the Falkland Islands, threatening sanctions against British offshore oil exploration at the Sea Lion field. With Washington hinting at potential diplomatic neutrality, military analysis reveals how a fortified UK presence—featuring Eurofighter Typhoons, air defense batteries, and nuclear attack submarines—compares to Argentina's hollowed-out armed forces. Discover the geopolitical motives and military realities behind the escalating South Atlantic rhetoric.  ⏱️ CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Javier Milei Claims "Winds of Change" Over Falklands 02:10 - Argentina Threatens Sanctions on Sea Lion Oilfield Exploration 04:20 - Historical Context & 1831 USS Lexington Incident 05:41 - UK Asserts Unwavering Commitment to Falklands Sovereignty 08:32 - Trump Hints at Neutrality Over UK's Iran Stand 10:28 - The "Don-Roe Doctrine" and Milei-Trump Alignment 11:56 - Military Power Comparison: UK vs. Hollowed-Out Argentine Forces 12:33 - UK Nuclear Submarines & Modernized Island Defenses 15:48 - Domestic Distraction: Milei's Political Strategy Behind the Rhetoric  Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join  #militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis #themilitaryshow  SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/RwAB8Cvc

Transcript

00:01It's a conflict that has bubbled under the surface for decades. In the 1980s

00:05that conflict exploded into full-blown war, followed by an uneasy peace that has

00:10lasted until today. Now the peace is on the verge of being shattered. The rhetoric

00:15coming out of Argentina is ramping up. The response from the UK is resolute. The

00:21Falklands are a massive talking point once again. Are Argentina and the UK

00:26about to go to war over these islands again? If they do, an unexpected role may

00:31be played by a man who should have nothing to do with the conflict, one Donald J. Trump.

00:36Before we get to what the US President is doing and saying, we have the rhetoric.

00:40On September 4th, Argentina's President Javier Milay stood before his people and delivered a

00:46speech. In it he claimed that the winds of change are blowing over the Falklands,

00:51and that the time will soon come when Argentina will reclaim the islands as its own.

00:56Those islands, Milay says, are Argentinian, and they are currently under British occupation.

01:02The Argentine president, who is struggling as his approval ratings fall following a disastrous

01:06attempt to implement free market trading in his country, appears to be falling back on something

01:11that could be an old reliable for Argentine politicians. When things are going poorly,

01:16point at the Falklands and talk about the UK being illegal occupiers.

01:19But there is something more to Milay's words. Before we dig deeper, if you are enjoying the

01:23video, consider subscribing and let us know your thoughts below. You can also become a channel

01:28member for access to exclusive content we don't publish publicly.

01:32Milay isn't just spouting rhetoric. He is also calling for action. He has told Argentinians that they

01:38must show a united front to the world on the Falklands issue, and that Argentina must act swiftly to take

01:45control of the islands, which are just a few hundred kilometers away from Argentina's coast,

01:49but around 12,870 kilometers away from the UK. Many of the arguments being made are those made in the

01:56past. Proximity means that the Falklands should belong to Argentina, and the only reason they don't is

02:01the UK took control over these islands centuries ago. The legitimacy of these claims can be questioned,

02:07but Milay's escalation is new, and it looks like the Argentine president is already taking some action

02:12to try to pressure the UK into giving up without a fight. Milay has already announced that Argentina

02:18will be taking strong steps against an offshore oil project that is taking place near the Falklands.

02:24Those steps haven't been taken yet, but the threats have been issued. Milay says that Argentina is

02:29prepared to sanction the project in the Sea Lion oil field. The BBC reports that firms from the UK

02:35and Israel are preparing a joint project as we speak, designed to explore that oil field and

02:40determine its viability for drilling. Milay calls this work a clear and present danger, though it isn't

02:46clear what impact Argentine sanctions could have. Milay made his announcement while surrounded by

02:51cabinet ministers, and Argentina already has a law that allows for the restriction of activities of

02:56oil companies carrying out projects that the Argentine government believes to be illegitimate.

03:01What that means when it comes to enforcement remains to be seen. Would Argentina send warships to

03:06stop oil tankles and commercial vessels from reaching or leaving the oil field? And if it did,

03:10would that be considered an act of war to the extent that the UK would feel forced to respond?

03:15These are questions that the UK won't want to have to answer, but it may have to if Milay goes

03:20all in on

03:21his rhetoric. Milay seems to have support from plenty of quarters in Argentina. We actually saw

03:26a strange example of this following the World Cup football match between England and Argentina in

03:31the summer. Argentina came out on top in that match, and in the aftermath the country's players unfurled a

03:36banner containing the statement, Las Malvinas son Argentinas. Malvinas is the name Argentina uses for

03:43the Falklands. The move attracted criticism and threats of disciplinary action from football's global

03:48governing body, FIFA. But interestingly, the White House defended Argentina's unfurling of the banner.

03:54That may have been a hint at what was to come from the Trump administration. But away from the pitch,

03:58Argentinians seem to be more mixed. BBC News says that the opinion inside Argentina combines enthusiasm

04:04with skepticism. The young in particular brim with enthusiasm, perhaps not remembering or understanding

04:09what happened the last time Argentina tried to pull off a Falklands invasion. Those who are old enough

04:15to remember are more skeptical. They have heard and, more importantly, seen what has happened in the past,

04:20and they know that Falklands' rhetoric has often been used by Argentinian politicians to boost polling

04:26numbers when approval ratings start going. There is also the question of legitimacy in Milay's claims.

04:32It's no secret that many in Argentina, especially those who ascend to power, view the Falklands as being

04:37owned by Argentina. As the BBC points out, Milay conveniently left out details that don't support his argument

04:43in his big speech. He especially didn't talk about the interchange of Falklands' ownership between

04:48European powers in the 17th and 18th centuries and made no mention of the fact that it was the US

04:53that forced Argentinians off the Falklands, not the UK. That happened in December 1831 when the US

05:00sent a warship named the USS Lexington to destroy an Argentinian fort in a dispute over fishing and

05:06sailing rights. The UK gained effective control in the aftermath, the New York Times points out.

05:12And Falklanders themselves, of whom there are about 3,600 on the islands, tend to overwhelmingly vote

05:18for the islands to remain a UK territory, as they did in a 2013 referendum. Still, Argentina stakes

05:24its claim, and in 1982, Argentina attempted to take the Falklands by force. Back then, the US tried to

05:30dissuade Argentina's military junta from following through on its invasion plans. Former President Ronald

05:35Reagan failed in these attempts, and Argentina sent forces to the Falklands. The UK responded,

05:41sending a major military deployment involving warships and submarines, a 74-day war, and 649

05:48dead Argentine soldiers later, the UK has re-established its hold on the islands.

05:54Now, a little over 40 years later, the same old problems are brewing again. The UK hasn't changed

06:00its stance, and it says that it is unwavering both in its support of Falklanders to make their own

06:05decisions about which nation owns the islands and its determination to keep hold of the Falklands.

06:10This is not the first time the Argentine governments have made economic threats against the

06:14Islanders. We are clear that the Falkland Islanders' right of self-determination extends to the right

06:19to exploit their own natural resources, says 10 Downing Street in the wake of Millet's speech.

06:24The UK's Secretary of State for Defense, where Streeting called the UK's commitment to the

06:28Falklands, absolute and unshakable, and suggested that Millet may have self-preservation in mind

06:34with his grand speech. Millet's statement overnight tells us more about domestic politics in Argentina

06:38than it does about the Falkland Islands, Streeting declared on X.

06:42As for the Falklanders themselves, the BBC News suggests that many on the island see Millet's

06:47comments as little more than background noise coming from Argentina. They have heard so much

06:51of this before, so there was no big surprise among the island's population, the BBC says.

06:56That isn't to say that Falklanders don't care. For them, the islands are their home,

07:00and they have expressed their desire to remain a UK territory many times with their votes.

07:04Still, many would argue that there is nothing new in Millet's words, even though he is threatening

07:08sanctions and claiming that Argentina is preparing to take swift action to

07:12write what he sees as a historical injustice. Still, if these kinds of claims are nothing new,

07:17then why do they matter? The answer is simple. President Trump has made himself something of

07:21an X-factor in this latest dispute, and whether the UK and Argentina eventually end up going to

07:26war over the Falklands could hinge on what he has already said and what he might say next.

07:31But before we explain more, this is The Military Show. We make videos like this to show how power

07:36really moves. If you like what you see, don't forget to subscribe and enable notifications for the

07:41channel. The most remarkable thing about Millet's speech isn't its content, but its timing. On

07:48September 3rd, which was the day before Millet took to the stage, Trump hinted that the US is

07:53reconsidering its long-held position over the Falklands, with the BBC even suggesting that the

07:58US president would be unwilling to come to the aid of America's ally if Argentina chooses to invade.

08:04In the past, the US has always officially taken a neutral stance on Falklands' ownership question,

08:09though it tends to recognize the UK's rule over the territory. And as the BBC points out,

08:14neutral doesn't mean unwilling to engage. When the UK and Argentina came to blows over the Falklands in

08:201982, America provided material support to the UK in an act that solidified the alliance between the

08:25US and the UK in times of conflict. With all of this being established, it may come as a surprise

08:31to

08:31many that Trump is suggesting that the US might turn its back on the UK over 44 years later.

08:37However, the question of the alliance between the two nations seems to lie at the heart of Trump's

08:41claims. Trump made his claims during an interview with GB News and he pointed to the US war with Iran

08:47as a reason why he is leaning toward changing the US stance.

08:50I was there when they had the first war. It was a long time ago. And I watched it so

08:54carefully.

08:54And you comported yourselves very well. You took it back pretty strongly. But it's a long way away.

08:59Yeah, that's a big trip. It's a long way. So your country is not doing well. Don't forget,

09:03you get a big percentage of your oil from the Strait of Hormuz. And you weren't there to help me.

09:07Your country was not there to help me. Trump declared.

09:11Though the US president seems to be forgetting the minor details that the UK did provide the US with

09:16the use of various airfields and bases during Operation Epic Fury, and that this operation

09:21was an attack on Iran rather than a defense against Iran, the statements highlight Trump's mindset.

09:27The UK didn't help the US in what Trump sees as America's time of need. So why would the US

09:32come

09:32to the UK's aid when Millet takes the massive step of launching a Falklands invasion? These comments

09:38made by Trump appear to have encouraged Millet to make his speech, perhaps under the belief that the US

09:42would stand aside or, in Argentina's ideal scenario, even support the country's claim to the Falklands.

09:48This raises the obvious question. Would Trump come down on Argentina's side in a new Falklands war?

09:54He certainly seems to be unsubtly pushing the UK and Argentina toward a conflict.

09:59And as The Guardian points out, revenge is a strong motivator for Trump.

10:03The outlet points to Trump declaring, I am your retribution to an audience at the

10:07Conservative Political Action Conference back in 2023, as he kicked off the campaign that

10:12ultimately led to his second stint in the White House. For Trump, the UK's refusal to send its

10:17Navy to help keep the Strait of Hormuz clear may be considered a slight that is worthy of revenge.

10:22If that's the case, Trump may well be willing to stand back and let the UK and Argentina battle it

10:27out.

10:27We also can't forget the Don Roe Doctrine. A play on the Monroe Doctrine of the 19th century,

10:33which the BBC says was coined to exert US dominance over the Americas, the Don Roe Doctrine calls for much

10:39the same thing. Trump wants to only see like-minded leaders chosen for all countries in the Americas,

10:45as that will feed into the Trump administration's vision for the continents.

10:49Millet fits perfectly into that doctrine. He is a close ally of Trump's, to the point where

10:53the Buenos Aires Times suggests he may be more of an ally to Trump than he is to the US.

10:58Politically, this means that Trump wants to see Millet retain power. And if that's the case,

11:02the support question becomes even bigger. Trump doesn't want to see his ally humiliated,

11:07making him unlikely to offer support to the UK, if Argentina makes a push for the Falklands.

11:12At the same time, Trump does have to remember the fact that the US and the UK are allies,

11:16so actively supporting Argentina in an invasion is likely a no-go. Trump would have to walk a

11:22tightrope if an invasion actually happens, which suggests that the most likely cause of American

11:27action would be none at all, perhaps with Trump manipulating the situation by claiming that the

11:31UK would never have faced this problem at all if it had just supported the US more in Iran.

11:36Some political gamesmanship is happening here. But for the UK and Argentina, that gamesmanship could

11:44lead both nations on the path to war. Let's say that an invasion happens and the US stays out of

11:50the

11:50fighting. With no US support, could the UK defend the Falklands? The numbers seem to suggest so.

11:56According to Global Firepower, or GFP, which ranks military nations based on several factors,

12:02the UK comes out on top in almost every key department. For a start, GFP says the UK ranks

12:088th in its list of 145 nations, with Argentina coming in at 32. The UK has a larger active military,

12:15with 141,330 service members versus Argentina's 108,000, and the UK has close to three times as many

12:23reserves. The UK also spends over $80 billion more on its military annually, and that is reflected in

12:29the country having a larger and stronger air force and navy, which would be the two key components

12:33in a defense of the Falklands. Looking beyond the numbers makes things even worse for Argentinian

12:38chances. As the Times points out, Argentina's armed forces have been hollowed out in the decades

12:44following the failure of its former military junta to take the Falklands back in 1982.

12:48Most of Argentina's defense spending focuses on broader security, counter-narcotics,

12:53and surveillance, and the country has a struggling economy that would make it difficult to dedicate

12:57more funds to an active invasion. Some moves have been made. Milay's government has ordered 24 F-16

13:04fighter jets from Denmark, as well as four P-3 maritime patrol aircraft, which are submarine hunters.

13:10That's important because submarines are one of the key advantages that the UK has over Argentina.

13:15That's according to Siddharth Kaushal, who is a senior research fellow at the Royal United

13:19Services Institute. If they were to do it, Kaushal says, of an Argentinian invasion,

13:24they would probably have to repurpose civilian vessels, which can be done if you have an uncontested

13:29landing. But even if they managed to jerry-rig a civil vessel for amphibious assault, it wouldn't

13:33take much to make that non-viable. If there was a single nuclear attack submarine in the vicinity,

13:38resupply becomes basically impossible. The UK doesn't just have a single nuclear submarine.

13:44It has six astute-class nuclear subs. And though none are at sea right now as they're undergoing

13:50maintenance, it's likely that at least one could be pulled out early and sent to the Falklands.

13:54It would take about two weeks to arrive, and Argentina has very little to answer it outside

13:59of aircraft that might be able to detect the sub. Sources also show that Argentina only spends 0.6%

14:06to 0.8% of its GDP on defense, which is a long way below the UK. And former UK

14:12intelligence and

14:12security officer, as well as noted analyst Philip Ingram, says that Argentina is in a much weaker

14:18military position than it was back in 1982. The UK, on the other hand, has reinforced Falklands defenses

14:24since that first invasion. Sky News says that the UK now has around 1,500 personnel stationed on the

14:30Falklands, which is 20 times the number that were on the islands in 1982. There are also

14:36four typhoon fighter jets in the Falklands, which offer radar and air-to-air capabilities

14:41that could see and respond to an attempt at an amphibious invasion long before any Argentine

14:46ships reach the islands. Surface-to-air missile systems have also been installed on the Falklands,

14:51and warships patrol the islands regularly. All of this suggests that an attempt at military

14:56action by Argentina would be a massive mistake. Don't forget that the 1982 invasion only worked

15:02because Argentina managed to catch the UK unaware, and it didn't work for long. As soon as the UK got

15:07a force over to the Falklands, a much stronger Argentina than the one we see today was defeated.

15:12The end of the military junta that conducted that invasion followed relatively soon after,

15:16as Argentina was forced to tuck its collective tail and run from the islands that are only a few

15:21hundred kilometers off its coast. It's hard to see how a different outcome would happen in 2026,

15:26when Argentina is weaker, the Falklands are better defended, and the UK has stronger warships and

15:31fighter jets than it once had. At best, Argentina would be hoping that the UK simply chooses not to

15:36respond to an invasion. That seems unlikely. Downing Street has already said that it will support the

15:42Falklanders in whatever way is needed, so Argentina can't count on the UK taking a laissez-faire attitude.

15:48And all of this happens even if the US chooses not to support the UK in its defense of the

15:52Falklands.

15:53So what is Millay really trying to do with his Falklands rhetoric? An actual invasion seems

15:58to be off the cards, as it's very difficult to see how Argentina could achieve anything better

16:02than a very temporary victory that is soon overturned, much like we saw in 1982.

16:06As Al Jazeera suggests, Millay may be instead looking to exploit Trump as tensions between the

16:12US and the UK simmer. If Trump is engaged in political gamesmanship, Millay may be doing the same

16:17thing. By making strong claims against the UK at a time when Trump is unhappy with the UK,

16:21Millay is cementing himself as an ally to Trump. And with that allegiance may come support from

16:26the US as Millay contends with discontent at home. And speaking about that discontent,

16:32Millay may have given the game away when he made his speech.

16:34We can argue about my style, we can disagree over fiscal or exchange rate policy,

16:39but there are causes that rise above any political difference. The Malvinas is one of them,

16:43Argentina's president declared. Perhaps that reveals the root of all of this. Millay wants

16:48his people to focus on the Falklands rather than what's happening at home.

16:52Regardless, the UK will be prepared if the worst-case scenario comes to pass.

16:56After all, the UK is already gearing up for a potential war with Russia,

17:00so Argentina will be catching the UK at a time of military resurgence.

17:03You can find out more about that resurgence and why it's happening by watching our video.

17:07But before you go, are you enjoying our reporting? Subscribe and share your thoughts below.

17:12And if you'd like to support the real people behind the channel,

17:15consider becoming a member for exclusive content. And thank you for watching.

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