00:00This is a program, Dave, that I know you know well, in Florida State,
00:04playing a really important game in ACC play.
00:07Few teams have won a game by 17 that felt more like a loss
00:11in the way that the Seminoles did in Week 0 against New Mexico State.
00:15A 34-17 result was entirely uninspiring.
00:19For me personally, very frustrating.
00:21I had a best bet in that game towards the over.
00:23If you told me New Mexico State put up 17 points, wow.
00:28Wow.
00:29I would have been very excited.
00:31And instead, you know, we lost that by three.
00:34I thought we would have won it by 30.
00:36Again, if you would have told me New Mexico State were to put up 17.
00:39We're sitting at a field goal now because this number's moved a little bit
00:41off of that performance by Florida State here as they host a ranked SMU team.
00:48Give me your outlook for this football game.
00:52I don't think Florida State's a very good team at all,
00:54and I don't just say that because I got Florida stuff behind me
00:57in the screen here.
00:58They're just not good.
00:59I think Florida State is the perfect victim of what new college football is
01:03and how the SEC and Big Ten teams are getting millions of dollars more
01:07than the ACC is.
01:08There's a reason why Florida State was suing to get out of the conference.
01:11They're not getting the money they need.
01:12They're wasting money on old coaches.
01:14You know Norvell would be gone by now if the athletic department could afford
01:18to get rid of them.
01:19But you have a coach you don't want.
01:20You're not getting the recruiting classes you want.
01:23The NLI money is not coming in because they don't want to give it to a coach
01:26who's not going to be there.
01:27It's not a very good football team.
01:29You talked about last week's game.
01:31It's 17-10 at the break over a horrible Aggies team.
01:35Ranked 123rd in the country in my guy Bill Connolly's SP+.
01:39Started an FCS transfer quarterback who threw all over the Florida State secondary.
01:44Now you look at SMU, ranked 25th in returning production,
01:49including quarterback Ken Jennings, who's going to love this Florida State defense.
01:53Three-fifths of the offensive line is back.
01:56SMU's defensive strength is strong against the run, 12th in EPA per rush,
02:00which is what the NOLs like to do.
02:02I love SMU in this one.
02:04It's not a biased take.
02:05I was on SMU before the Florida State game last week.
02:09They just proved to me they're not a very good football team.
02:11You know, teams, you talk about, well, FSU played last week.
02:15SMU didn't.
02:15Teams playing their season opener against an opponent who's already played
02:19cover around 55%.
02:21It's 61% if you just count FBS teams.
02:25So I do like SMU minus the three this week for about a dozen different reasons.
02:30You know, this is one of these interesting spots where I love to buy the dip, right?
02:37And I think we all know this number's moved a little bit due to what FSU did
02:41against New Mexico State.
02:43And it's very easy for me to convince myself, hey, play New Mexico State.
02:48That wasn't their most important game.
02:50Far more important to be ready for SMU to hold stuff.
02:53I don't think any of that is what happened, though.
02:54I think Ashton Daniels, who has probably been given too many chances at big programs, is not
03:03an exciting quarterback.
03:05And that then stops you from getting the most out of a superstar wide receiver room.
03:13Deuce Robinson having 50 yards.
03:16When I think he caught a 24-yard deep shot on the opening drive, it's completely unacceptable.
03:24Oh, they ran the ball a gazillion times.
03:26Why?
03:27Yeah, maybe they were holding it back.
03:29But I've seen this FSU program with Mike Norvell be clearly the sharp-by-low side before.
03:42It was two years ago when they were supposed to be one of the best in the country and won
03:48two football games.
03:51And one of them was against Charleston South.
03:53And they didn't cover.
03:54I mean, it was weak.
03:55It was, you know, they played Boston College.
03:57Oh, sure.
03:57Oh, lose outright.
03:58Oh, they played Memphis.
03:59Okay, this is lose outright.
04:01SMU outright.
04:02It was nonstop.
04:03And they were getting bigger and bigger spreads.
04:05And again, that was two years ago.
04:09The way they ended last season was pathetic.
04:13I know they lost closer.
04:15It was pathetic.
04:18They smoked Alabama last year.
04:20Like, they bullied Alabama.
04:22They won two more games against power competition.
04:30They're not a very good football team.
04:32It's that simple.
04:33And you like to buy the dips.
04:35And you like to think, hey, you know, it was a look-ahead spot.
04:38You had SMU coming to town.
04:40At the end of the day, brass tacks is Kevin.
04:42This is not a very good roster.
04:44They don't have a very good coach.
04:45You know that coach would have been fired by now if they didn't owe $50 million to their previous three
04:51coaches.
04:51They're not getting the NIL money because those alumni bases don't want to pay with this coach there.
04:57They want to get rid of them.
04:58They don't have any money.
04:59They're in the red in the athletic department.
05:01The program is a mess.
05:03They're not going to come back.
05:04This is a victim of the current situation in college football.
05:09They're not a good period.
05:10They're not a good football team.
05:12And you can look at it week in and week out.
05:14This is not Florida State of three years ago.
05:17It's not Florida State of 20 years ago.
05:19They're not.
05:19They're not good.
