00:00Are we going to get the same kind of underdog love here tonight?
00:05Fresno State, USC, I think we've all established that they are not, I repeat, not, have a great
00:12home field advantage here.
00:15They have dominated these out-of-conference games under Lincoln Riley.
00:19I mean, they have just not only won, but they have blown them all out every chance they
00:24get.
00:2621.5 is the number right now.
00:28It was as high as 23.5.
00:30If you got 22, 22.5, you're sitting better than the number is right now.
00:36But much like I bet USC in the first half last week for this same principle, they are going
00:42to blow the doors out of teams like San Jose State and Fresno State.
00:46But they're only going to do it early and often.
00:49And then come the second half, Tom, in the fourth quarter, USC had nobody out on the field on
00:55the defense, but second and third stringers.
00:57And that's when all of a sudden San Jose State started to score some points.
01:02It was 28.0 at the half.
01:03It's exactly what's going to happen here.
01:06It's the same thing.
01:06They're going to 35.0, 28.0, 24.0.
01:10And then all of a sudden Fresno State will put some points on the board and everyone's
01:15going to be like, oh, wow, that was closer than I thought it were.
01:18I'm not laying 21.5 with them early, but I'll lay the 13.5, 12.5 in the first half.
01:27And, you know, thinking of the 22.5 backdoor cover for Fresno State, sign me up for that.
01:34That's what I'm thinking.
01:35So, you know, to your point, how do you approach the first half?
01:39So first half spread, 13.5 for USC.
01:42I was looking at the first half total points for USC, which is sitting at 20.5.
01:47So if they get three touchdowns in the first half, they're probably covering that first
01:51half spread of 13.5.
01:52I will say the 20.5 USC team points in the first half, it is minus 125.
01:58So you're looking at a good bit of juice there.
02:01And then also, if you want to go a little bit further down, the anytime touchdown score
02:06for USC, they have two players listed at minus money.
02:10And then they have the next three players, starting with Maiava at plus 100.
02:14So you can take some shots on some plus money prices on USC to get multiple players into the
02:20end zone and then use those as smaller plays, but take a first half spread or first half
02:25team total is kind of the main place.
02:28Yeah, I early for USC, not late, because there's really no incentive for them at all at this
02:36point to keep to win this game 78 to nothing.
02:39I mean, it's, it's just not going to happen here tonight.
