00:15hello and welcome to wall india explainer you don't want to miss this this explains how indians
00:21hold the key in u.s elections there is a new warning sign for donald trump ahead of the u
00:27.s
00:27midterm elections and this one comes from a community that trump had managed to make
00:32significant inroads into during the 2024 presidential election the indian americans a new
00:39aapi data survey suggests that indian american voters are once again moving strongly towards
00:44the democrats around 66 percent say they intend to vote for democratic candidates in house elections
00:50only 22 percent currently favor republicans and the numbers are almost identical in senate races
00:5866 for democrats and just 18 for republicans this is a substantial democratic advantage and for trump
01:07it is worth paying attention to because indian americans were not always this firmly in the
01:13democratic game in fact the 2024 election showed something very important donald trump was making
01:20progress a carnegie endowment survey conducted before the 2024 election found that around the
01:2732 percent of the indian american voters intended to vote for trump compared with about 60 percent for
01:33kamala harris who had an indian descent that was a significant shift trump's support was particularly
01:41strong among indian american men around four in ten said they intended to vote for him so the republican
01:48party had demonstrated that it could break into what had traditionally been a heavily democratic
01:54constituency but now comes the worrying part for trump that momentum appears to be losing and in some
02:02respects it appears to have gone into reverse as well the carnegie endowment's 2026 survey found that
02:09roughly 7 in 10 indian americans disapprove of trump's performance only about 3 in 10 approve and the
02:18dissatisfaction isn't limited to one particular issue indian americans have expressed strong
02:23disapproval of trump's approach to immigration the economy trade and tariffs for a community with a very
02:29large professional and immigrant population that matters take the h-1b issue indian origin immigrants
02:37accounted for roughly 71 percent of new h-1b petitions in fiscal 2024 according to the carnegie survey and
02:45two-thirds of indian americans opposed trump's proposed 100 000 fee on new h-1b petitions so when trump
02:54talks about immigration indian american voters don't necessarily hear the same message as his traditional
03:01republican base for many of them immigration isn't simply about border security it is also about their
03:08families professional careers children and the future of skilled immigration to america and then
03:15there is economy this may actually be trump's biggest problem because indian american voters like most
03:22american voters are increasingly worried about the cost of living inflation and prices are among their
03:28biggest concerns and the latest aapi data survey shows that asian american voters trust democrats
03:35substantially more than republicans on the economy and inflation front that creates a difficult political
03:43environment for donald trump because the 2024 republican games among indian americans were not necessarily
03:49driven by a wholesale ideological conversion they were partly driven by dissatisfaction with democrats
03:55and that distinction is important indian americans remain overwhelmingly democratically leading but their
04:03attachment to the democratic party has weakened in 2020 about 52 percent identified as democrats by 2026
04:11that number had fallen to 46 percent the republican share remains much smaller at around 19 percent but the
04:19independent vote has grown and that is where the real political battle could be because this tells us
04:25something very interesting about the indian american electorate it is no longer a completely predictable
04:30democratic block but neither has it become a republican constituency altogether it is increasingly
04:36competitive and that is precisely why trump should be worried because even if republicans cannot win the
04:42indian american vote outright they can benefit by reducing the democratic advantage if a community that once
04:49voted overwhelmingly democratic moves from something like a 70 to 20 democratic advantage to 60 to 30 that can
04:58matter in a closely contested election but the reverse is also true if trump loses the gains he made in
05:052024 democrats could once again build a substantial advantage amongst indian american voters and then there is
05:12another factor here racism and identity indian americans are increasingly concerned about anti-immigrant and
05:19anti-indian rhetoric coming from parts of the america far right the carnegie research found that a
05:25significant share of indian americans see the republican party as intolerant of minorities
05:32that could put a ceiling on republican growth among the community but here's the important caveat trump
05:38should not assume that indian americans are automatically returning to the democrats they are
05:43the democratic party has its own problem the party's identification advantage has fallen
05:49and the indian american voters are increasingly willing to describe themselves as independents so this
05:56isn't simply a story about trump losing indian americans it is a story about a community that is becoming
06:02more politically fluid on their own terms and that could make it extremely important in competitive states and congressional districts
06:10the indian u.s relationship surprisingly may not be enough to save trump here indian americans certainly
06:16care about india but surveys suggest that when they actually enter the voting booth their decision is
06:22much more likely to be shaped by the issues such as inflation jobs healthcare immigration and their everyday
06:29economic security in the united states and not concerning india and that is where trump faces his biggest
06:36challenge that 2024 election showed that indian americans could move towards republicans
06:41that 2026 number suggests that trump has not been able to lock in that movement so the message for trump
06:47is
06:47quite clear he doesn't necessarily have to win the indian american vote but if he wants republicans to
06:53permanently expand their coalition he has to keep making gains with this community right now the numbers suggest the opposite
07:06this child among the land a bit uh real or both uh oh
07:08and that's right
07:08yeah
07:08yeah
