00:15Could Donald Trump be heading toward a major political setback in November?
00:20The 2026 midterms are still weeks away, so no outcome is guaranteed.
00:26But as Republicans prepare to defend their congressional majorities, several warning signs are emerging,
00:33from Trump's approval rating and the economy, to the Iran War, the Epstein controversy, and Democratic enthusiasm.
00:41Here are seven reasons Trump could be in serious political trouble this November.
00:47Number one, Trump's approval rating has hit a new low.
00:51According to the latest Reuters-Ipsos poll, Trump's approval rating has fallen to 33%, the lowest of his current term.
01:00And the problem is not limited to Democrats.
01:03The poll found that 71% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the cost of living, including 40%
01:11of Republicans.
01:11That is particularly significant, because economic conditions are often among the biggest factors in midterm voting.
01:20Trump may still have a highly loyal political base, but a president with a 33% approval rating gives vulnerable
01:28Republican candidates a difficult political environment to campaign in.
01:32Number two, Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting.
01:36Another warning sign is voter enthusiasm.
01:40The Reuters-Ipsos survey found that 46% of Democrats say they are very enthusiastic about voting in November.
01:48Among Republicans, that figure is just 31%.
01:51That's a 15-point enthusiasm gap.
01:55And among independents, the poll found 36% would vote for a Democratic congressional candidate, compared with 22% for
02:03a Republican.
02:04Of course, enthusiasm today does not automatically translate into turnout in November.
02:10But if that gap survives through Election Day, it could be a serious problem for Republican candidates in competitive districts.
02:18Number three, the Epstein controversy isn't going away.
02:23Then there is the Epstein controversy.
02:25This has become a political problem for the Trump administration because the issue is no longer simply being debated online.
02:32Congressional investigations are continuing.
02:36And on September 3, billionaire Leon Black sued a House committee after lawmakers demanded that he provide documents as part
02:44of its Epstein investigation.
02:46Black has denied wrongdoing, but the lawsuit shows that the congressional fight over Epstein-related records is continuing,
02:53with the issue potentially keeping transparency and accountability questions in the headlines during the midterm campaign.
03:01And this is where Trump's political opponents see an opening.
03:05They can argue about transparency.
03:07They can demand the release of records.
03:09And they can keep asking what the government knows and what has been disclosed.
03:14The important point is this.
03:16Political controversy is not proof of criminal wrongdoing.
03:20But politically, an issue does not have to produce a conviction to become a liability.
03:26Number four, the Iran war is deeply unpopular.
03:30Trump's handling of Iran could be another major problem.
03:34According to Reuters-IPSO's poll released September 4, only 25 percent of Americans believe the war with Iran is worthwhile.
03:42That means roughly three out of four Americans do not think the conflict is worth the cost.
03:48And the conflict is still continuing.
03:51Trump has repeatedly suggested that the conflict could end soon,
03:55but the United States continues to face military and geopolitical risks in the region.
04:00Reuters has also reported that Trump aides are concerned about the war becoming a political liability before the midterms.
04:07If the conflict continues into the election season,
04:10Democrats could make it one of their central campaign issues.
04:14The question would be simple.
04:16Was the war worth it?
04:18Right now, only a quarter of Americans say yes.
04:22Number five, the economic picture is mixed.
04:25Trump can point to one major piece of good news.
04:28The latest jobs report showed the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs.
04:34But voters are not satisfied.
04:37Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's two percent target,
04:41while expectations of a possible Fed rate hike have increased following the latest economic data.
04:47At the same time, Trump is demanding lower interest rates.
04:51That creates a difficult political situation.
04:54The administration can point to strong employment.
04:57But voters may care more about whether their groceries, housing, energy, and other everyday expenses are becoming affordable again.
05:06And Reuters-IBSOS polling shows the cost of living remains one of the biggest concerns heading into the midterms.
05:12Number six, Republicans are defending a narrow majority.
05:17The electoral math itself is another problem.
05:21Republicans control the Congress, but their margins are narrow.
05:24That means Democrats do not need to win a massive number of districts to change control of the House.
05:30A relatively small number of competitive races could determine the balance of power.
05:36And Republicans are already preparing for a difficult fight.
05:39Trump has said he plans to campaign heavily for Republican candidates, targeting roughly 35 key races.
05:47That tells you something about the stakes.
05:50Republicans know they cannot afford to lose many competitive seats.
05:54Trump's personal popularity can help energize the Republican base.
05:58But in swing districts, it can also become a vulnerability if independent voters are moving away from him.
06:05And finally, there's the latest House forecast.
06:07A model from Cornell Political Scientists gives Democrats an 8 in 10 chance of winning a majority in the House
06:15this fall.
06:16The model projects approximately 226 Democratic seats, compared with 209 Republican seats.
06:24That is a forecast, not a guarantee.
06:26But Trump is fighting back.
06:29There's one major reason Republicans cannot be counted out.
06:32Trump is not sitting on the sidelines.
06:35He's promised to campaign aggressively for Republican candidates.
06:39And he's announced plans to deploy between $400 and $500 million from MAGA Inc. for the midterm elections.
06:47Although Trump is not guaranteed to lose the 2026 midterms.
06:51But the warning signs are real.
06:55.
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