00:00Still got a lot going on here out West and some fascinating matchups here, Tom, and maybe none more interesting,
00:08I think, than what the Pirates and the Padres late night tonight, 940 Eastern time are going to deliver.
00:14Listen, Ashcraft, we have talked about it on this show, has been lights out and he's been so he's just
00:21buried playing for Pittsburgh.
00:23Robbie Ray has been great. He's great with the Giants. He's been OK here so far with the Padres.
00:29The problem with him is the walks. And that's what worries me.
00:34The problem is he's got just as many strikeouts as he does walks at some point that could come back
00:40to bite you.
00:41But the Padres bullpen, you know, they're built to win lower scoring games and be able to bail them out.
00:49Pirates bullpen is reworked. I think this is a great pitchers duel tonight.
00:53It's at Petco. Usually that means an under, does it not?
00:58It does. And, you know, like the joke I like to use in a lot of these spots is like,
01:04you know, when a stoppable force meets a movable object, that's kind of what we have.
01:08Like Robbie Ray allowing runners on base for free or any pitcher, when any pitcher allows runners on base for
01:14free drives me insane.
01:15So when we're looking at Robbie Ray over the last 30 days, he has a 267 ERA. Awesome. That's great.
01:21He has, you know, seven Ks per nine. He has 4.67 walks per nine, which is terrible.
01:27Absolutely horrible. Allowing runners on base is horrible.
01:30But when we look at the Pirates versus lefties over the last 30 days, they're the second worst team in
01:35the MLB with a 64 WRC plus.
01:38They have a strikeout rate that's over 25%. They do have a walk rate at 9.4%.
01:43So they can't generate any offense. They're swinging and missing a ton.
01:46But Robbie Ray, if we have the bad version of Robbie Ray tonight or even the mediocre version of him,
01:52that's where the Pirates just get runs for free, even though they don't deserve it.
01:55So I do like the under and really the Padres should be coming through with this win because the Pirates
02:01offense is inept against lefties in recent form.
02:07Crazy, too, because I know they were hoping O'Neal Cruz would be back, maybe give him a little bit
02:11of a punch, but it's they are so bad against lefties and there's just no reason for it here.
02:18It really isn't. But out at Petco here tonight, it's usually a big under ballpark.
02:25But I think I think Braxton Ashcraft, if you have not had a chance to see him pitch, I mean,
02:30he dominated Detroit on Tuesday.
02:33He dominated the Marlins prior to that.
02:36It is this kid is and he's doing it.
02:39He's throwing seven, eight, nine innings, Tom, and he's doing it with like 80 pitches.
02:44Well, I have not seen a guy be this efficient as he has been.
02:49It's unfortunate that he's buried because he's going to make himself a lot of he may not end up with
02:55Pittsburgh in a long run, but this kid is going to make himself a whole lot of money if he
02:58stays healthy.
03:00He really can.
03:01He keeps the ball in the park for the most part.
03:04You know, yeah, he suppresses hits.
03:07He's like everything you want from a pitcher with good strikeouts, you know, keeping the pitch count under control, which
03:12is always great.
03:13Every team, every manager possibly wants that.
03:16Even in recent form, you know, 273, 273 ERA over the last 30 days is really nice.
03:22And even if you look to his underlying metrics of his XERA, which is generally a better indicator, that's a
03:27271.
03:28So it's not like he's overperforming.
03:29His XFIP is also, you know, sitting in the same range at 306.
03:33So it's not like he's just going on some crazy stretch, like he actually kind of deserves the results he's
03:37been getting.
03:38Whether or not he's with Pittsburgh long term is yet to be seen, but it's probably a no.
03:44Yeah, and listen, injuries have not been great today.
03:48They lost Ryan O'Hearn.
03:49Their offense fell off a cliff there.
03:52Connor Griffin, the rookie, has been.
03:54So they've, you know, they've had to deal with some situations there.
03:57The bullpen was a mess for the first half of the season.
04:00But keep this in mind, on July 23rd, they were 53 and 50, Tom.
04:05They were right there in the wild card race.
04:09And ever since then, they've gone 10 and 19.
04:12It has not been good.
04:14They just got beat up by the Dodgers.
04:18Am I crazy to think that currently right now, the hottest team in Major League Baseball over the last month?
04:25Padres, is that fair?
04:28It might be.
04:29Over the last month, sure.
04:30You know, I will just say for the Pirates, credit to them.
04:33They still have a positive run differential, which I didn't think I'd be saying on August 24th.
04:37But they put together a good season.
04:39A little bit of injury, unluckiness is there.
04:41But the Padres have just been unbelievably hot over the past month.
04:45And I was not high on the Padres coming into the season.
04:48And halfway through, I was like, listen, I'm right.
04:52I knew I was right.
04:54And, you know, a little bit of an older roster.
04:56They took some time to get going.
04:57They made a few trades.
04:58And they're looking good.
04:59And they're a dangerous team in the postseason.
05:02The thing I would say about the Padres is, who's going to be their game one starter, Joe?
05:06Like, do we, like, do they have a guy, like, oh, we know for basically every other team.
05:11Like, it's a Wheeler.
05:12It's a Cam Slytler.
05:13You know, if the Blue Jays make it, it's going to be Dylan Seas.
05:15We know it's going to be Payton Toley or, I mean, great.
05:19Like, the Padres just don't have that guy, which is my issue.
05:21We know it's going to be.
