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In a high-impact deep strike roughly 900 kilometers inside Russian territory, Ukraine deployed its indigenous FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles to hit Roscosmos's Progress Rocket Space Center in Samara. As Russia's sole assembly facility for Soyuz-2 launch vehicles, the strike cripples the Kremlin's ability to deploy military satellites and build a domestic Starlink alternative—further stranding frontline forces stripped of reliable satellite communications.

⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - FP-5 Flamingo Missiles Strike Roscosmos Progress Center in Samara
01:32 - Destruction of Russia's Sole Soyuz-2 Rocket Assembly Facility
02:52 - Video Proof Shows Progress Electronics Workshop in Flames
04:07 - Specifications of Ukraine's 3,000km Range Flamingo Missile
05:27 - Long-Range Strike Campaign Cuts Off Russian War Machine
06:36 - Samara Strike Cripples Kremlin Plan for Rassvet Satellites
07:55 - Why Russia Needs 15 Soyuz Rockets to Build Starlink Alternative
09:21 - Elon Musk's Starlink Blackout Triggers 50% Loss in Offensive Capacity
10:47 - Ukrainian Forces Liberate 745 Sq Km After Starlink Shutdown
12:13 - Frontline Comms Collapse Drives Russian Daily Losses Past 1,500
13:39 - War Economy Collides With Space Program Funding Shortages
15:05 - Refinery Strikes Deprive Soyuz Launchers of Kerosene Fuel
16:55 - How the Flamingo Strike Ruined Russia's Satellite Network

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SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/Teb3pCqg

Category

🤖
Tech
Transcript
00:01When SpaceX declared that Russia could no longer use its illicit Starlink terminals for planning
00:07or conducting strikes against Ukraine, Russia's entire military went into a tailspin. Ground was
00:14lost, soldiers died, and Ukraine gained a massive advantage. Russia has been trying to create its
00:20own version of Starlink ever since, and a Soyuz rocket center deep within its territory was a key
00:26cog in a space program designed to restore connectivity and communication for Russia's
00:31soldiers. You can probably guess what has happened. Ukraine found that Soyuz center,
00:37and it made the facility burn by sending something pink to destroy the Kremlin's dream of creating
00:43its very own Starlink. Today there are new significant results from our deep strikes.
00:48In Russia's Samara region, one of the key enterprises within Roscosmos, the Progress Center,
00:53which was involved among other things in electronics production, was hit. Ukraine's
00:58President Volodymyr Zelensky declared in an August 15th expost. Zelensky went on to explain that the
01:04something pink that destroyed parts of the facility were FP5 Flamingo missiles which traveled about 900
01:11kilometers from Ukraine's border to strike deep into the heart of Russia. This isn't just about
01:17losing a rocket manufacturer that is vital to Russia's plans to create its own Starlink. What we've just
01:23seen is yet another example among hundreds in 2026 that there is nowhere that Russia can consider
01:29safe from Ukraine and its drones. Specifically, the facility that Ukraine took out is in southwestern
01:36Russia and is used to manufacture the Soyuz 2 launch vehicles that Russia needs to send satellites
01:42supporting its Razvet system into orbit. Take out the rockets and the satellites stay on the ground,
01:48making them absolutely useless to Russia as it scrambles to come up with a Starlink alternative.
01:53To make matters worse for Russia, this Progress Facility is the only one in the entire country
01:59where these Soyuz 2 launchers can be assembled, according to the Telegraph. This means that Russia
02:05now has two races on its hands, one to get the satellites into the air in the first place,
02:10and another to restore its means of launcher production. Russia has already confirmed that the
02:16strike took place, which tells us that it was too big to hide. Granted, Russian officials didn't name
02:22the Progress Facility directly. Samara Regional Governor Vyacheslav Fedoryshev would only say that
02:28an industrial facility had been hit, and Regional Mayor Ivan Moskov claimed that the attack was a
02:33large-scale missile strike, United24 media reports. The same outlet adds that regular people on the ground
02:39have been more revealing. Residents reported loud explosions not long after a missile alert was issued for the
02:45Samara region, and it's likely thanks to some of these residents that we have some of the clearest proof
02:50that Ukraine hit exactly what it was trying to hit as footage. And that footage shows the Progress Facility
02:57in flames. Zelensky shared some of that footage in his ex-post. A 20-second clip shows several angles
03:04of a fire that has climbed so high it can be seen burning from kilometers away. Thick clouds of smoke
03:10blacken the skies, and they're all emanating from the Progress Center. More footage comes from an
03:14interesting source, Denis Stilemer, who is the founder of Firepoint, which builds the pink missiles
03:20that Ukraine used in its Soyuz-busting strike. His footage shows the very beginning of the attack,
03:26showcasing the ground-based launch of the Flamingo missiles that Ukraine used, and offering just the
03:31briefest of windows into a long-range threat against Russia that is no longer emerging and has instead
03:37turned into an everyday problem. The Flamingo missile-drone hybrid isn't just here, it's
03:42hitting Russia hard with increasing regularity. Russia is terrified of this pretty-and-pink weapon,
03:49and it has every reason to be. The Flamingo delivers a long-range capability to Ukraine that it hasn't
03:54had for most of the war. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the Flamingo,
04:00which is pink due to a factory error in initial production and has stayed that way as a
04:05little trademark, can travel around 3,000 kilometers and sports a powerful 1,150-kilogram warhead that
04:13is more than capable of wrecking hardened targets and large facilities. Forbes says the missile will
04:19reshape the dynamics of the entire Ukraine war, and you could argue that it's doing just that.
04:24Ukraine knows what it has on its hands, with its pink Punisher here. It has funded production scaling and
04:30its unleashing Flamingo drone missiles at all sorts of important targets inside Russia.
04:34The Progress Center is just one of those targets. There have been many others in 2026.
04:40According to an August 17 United24 media report, Ukraine is now launching Flamingos at Russia at
04:46around twice the pace it was a mere six months ago. Ukraine isn't saying that. Russian media outlets,
04:52including Ogentsvow, have reached that conclusion by tracking Flamingo attacks throughout 2026.
04:57That data only covers Flamingos that Russia claims to have intercepted,
05:01but Russia acts like it intercepts everything, blaming debris for every major strike that's
05:06recorded. Still, the numbers are illuminating. Between February and May, Russia claims to have
05:12intercepted 31 Flamingo drone missiles. Ukraine has ramped up massively since then. The two weeks up to
05:19United24 media's report have seen Russia claim to have shot down 25 Flamingos. Presumably,
05:26the Flamingo that hit the Samara Progress Center is counted in those figures. And the footage shows
05:31us precisely what shot down means to Russia. The Progress strike shows us just how far Ukraine's
05:37ingenious drone tech has come. Evolving from drones used on the front lines as Ukraine relied on Western
05:43weapons for border strikes into a complete suite of long-range weapons that can strike almost anywhere
05:49of importance in Russia. Ukraine's drone innovation has been a momentum shifter,
05:54the Council on Foreign Relations declares. It has opened the door for greater success with strikes
05:59on Russian territory, backed by terrifying levels of firepower as seen in the Flamingo.
06:04Ukraine's drones have been key to retaking control over the Black Sea, implementing a strategy for
06:09Crimea that enables isolation without the sacrifice of soldiers, and showing Russia that safety simply no
06:16longer exists for any of its key facilities. With the Flamingo in play, anything within 3,000 km is a
06:23target, and according to Zelensky, that range will grow up to 10,000 km by 2027. All of this is
06:31in
06:31service of cutting off the legs of the Russian war machine. That's what we've seen in Samara,
06:36symbolically speaking. On the face of it, this is yet another long-range sanction that has been
06:40delivered to place pressure on Putin and his Kremlin cronies. Every time a Flamingo or any of Ukraine's
06:46other long-range assets hits their target, a message is sent to every Russian who hears the
06:51buzz of the drones or feels the heat from the fires. Putin can't protect them. And his failure
06:58to protect Russia itself is the reason why the military is doing so poorly in Ukraine, and why so
07:03many Russian people are being choked in an economic stranglehold of high inflation and interest rates that
07:09make it impossible for them to repay loans. But it goes much deeper than that in Samara.
07:14We touched on it earlier. The progress facility was central to every plan that the Kremlin was
07:19concocting for Ukraine. Russia needs its satellites in the air, desperately. And in a moment we're going
07:25to explain why this Samara strike has utterly destroyed any dream that Russia may have had of
07:30turning the tide in Ukraine. Before we do, this is a reminder that you're watching the military show.
07:35If you haven't subscribed yet, now's the perfect time to hit the button, enable notifications,
07:40and get ready for the daily videos we publish covering the Ukraine war.
07:46We've already touched on the Starlink replacement issue. Russia needs its progress base to build the
07:51launchers that send its Razvet satellites into space. The Samara facility isn't the only link in
07:57that launcher chain, but it is the most important. Components for the Soyuz launchers that Russia needs are
08:03being made all over the country, likely in an attempt to prevent Ukraine from wiping out the
08:07entire supply chain in one strike. However, all of those components converge at a central point.
08:13And that point is the progress facility that Ukraine struck on August 15th.
08:18Think of it like cutting off the head of the Russian chicken. The body may still be able to run
08:22around for a while, but what that body is sending to the heart spurts out into nothingness for as long
08:27as the progress facility is offline. How long that will be is still to be determined. The Telegraph
08:33reports that satellite imagery of the struck site seems to indicate that the onboard electronics
08:37assembly workshop was destroyed. That's painful for Russia. A rocket isn't going very far without
08:43onboard electronics, and it's likely that a whole lot of what was supposed to be loaded into Soyuz
08:47launches has now gone up in smoke, along with the facility that was specially designed for assembling
08:53those electronics. It's going to take time for Russia to rebuild this workshop and replace every
08:58component that it's lost in the massive blaze. How ironic. Satellite imagery has revealed just how
09:04screwed Russia's own satellite project is. To understand how screwed Russia is, you need a
09:10better understanding of what Russia has to achieve to get anything that even remotely resembles its own
09:15version of Starlink up and running. In an August 17th report, RBC Ukraine says that Russia needs to
09:21carry out between 12 and 15 launches of Soyuz carrier rockets into orbit to deploy the Razvet satellite
09:27network. Each Soyuz 2.1b can put 20 satellites into orbit, meaning Russia plans to have up to 300
09:35satellites as part of its constellation. If that doesn't sound like much compared to Starlink, because
09:40it isn't. Satellite Tracker says that Starlink has 10,977 satellites in orbit and that it plans a full
09:48constellation of 42,000. At best, Russia's own version of Starlink is going to be a 36th of the
09:55size of the actual Starlink. Russia might argue that this isn't a problem. It only needs satellite
10:01coverage for Ukraine and perhaps parts of Russia, and not the whole world right now. That may be the
10:06case. But there's also no denying that Russia's plans amount to a shoddy version of a technology that
10:11is lost. A poor copy of the original, which, come to think of it, suits Russia down to the ground.
10:16Ever since the Soviet era, Russia has stolen and copied rather than innovated. It's doing it as we
10:21speak by trying to copy Ukraine's drones, and the Razvet system is just the latest example.
10:27Despite all of this, there's no denying that Razvet is vital for Russia. Getting any satellite
10:32constellation into orbit, even if it isn't a patch on the Starlink system Russia illicitly accessed before,
10:38is better than nothing. That's why Russia has been pouring so many resources into building the new
10:43Soyuz capsules, which are one-way launchers that it can't retrieve or reuse. The faster those
10:49launchers are built, the better Russia's situation in Ukraine. And this is why.
10:54For years, Russia used illegally accessed Starlink terminals for everything from drone attacks to
11:00ensuring fluid communication between frontline units and command centers in the rear. That all ended
11:06at the beginning of 2026, when SpaceX founder Elon Musk cut all access to Starlink for Russia's forces.
11:13It appears that this was done by creating a whitelist of Ukrainian terminals and a blacklist of Russian
11:18terminals, essentially shutting down Russian access practically overnight. The impact was immediate
11:24and pronounced. By February, Russia's battlefield capabilities had declined drastically. As one
11:30Ukrainian drone operator going by the callsign Giovanni told the BBC at the time, the Russians lost their
11:37ability to control the field. I think they lost 50% of their capacity for offense. That's what the
11:42numbers show. Fewer assaults, fewer enemy drones, fewer everything. Russia had had its pants pulled down,
11:48and it started scrambling in desperation, tripping all over itself as it did. The comms blackout caused by
11:54this shutdown was catastrophic for Russia's 2026 plans. The Atlantic Council says that Ukraine
12:00was quickly able to take advantage of Russia's loss of Starlink by launching lightning-fast counterattacks
12:06against weakened fortifications across the front lines. Within the first five days of the shutdown,
12:11the outlet says, Ukraine had liberated about 200 square kilometers of territory, which was roughly
12:17equivalent to what the Russian army had gained during the entire month of December. Just like that,
12:23Russia's forces were being pushed back. And this trend of Ukrainian counterattacks taking advantage of
12:28Russian weakness has continued throughout 2026. Ukraine used Russia's Starlink blackout to push
12:35targeted offensives, primarily taking place in the south of the country. By mid-March, Ukraine had retaken
12:41about 400 square kilometers of territory, much of it in the Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
12:47Fast forward to August, and Zelenskyy revealed that Ukraine has also liberated 745 square kilometers of
12:53territory in the Oleksandrovsk sector. Add all of that to the impact that the loss of Starlink had on
12:59Russia's drones, especially in the medium to near ranges, and you get a good picture of just how damaging
13:05the comms chaos caused by Musk's decision has had on Putin's forces. The setup work done for the 2026
13:11offensive unraveled due to Ukraine's counterattacks, and it's not too much of a stretch to say that the
13:16quagmire Russia now finds itself in, as it tries to capture Donetsk, owes a lot to its loss of access
13:22to
13:22Starlink. Russia's desperation to get Razvet up and running is compounded by the sheer number of
13:28casualties the country is being forced to absorb due to its frontline soldiers not being able to
13:33communicate with rear-lying commanders effectively. Daily casualties are far above 1,000 per day,
13:40often hovering closer to the 1,500 mark. That was the case in the 24 hours leading up to August
13:4616th,
13:46when Russia lost 1,510 soldiers to death or injury, along with 600 pieces of equipment. Again,
13:54this can all be traced back to the Starlink shutdown. Casting a wider net on Russian casualties, Russia
14:00lost a 2026 record of 42,860 soldiers in July, giving it a seven-month total of almost 225,500
14:11losses,
14:11the Kyiv Independent reports. Those losses come amidst Ukraine also drastically altering the
14:17casualty ratio to the point where it's now losing around eight soldiers for every one Ukrainian
14:22casualty. The battlefield maths isn't mathing anymore. And again, the loss of Starlink is to blame.
14:28All of this explains why Russia has been so desperately building Soyuz launchers to send
14:33Razvet satellites into space. However, Russia faces another problem that Ukraine's latest Flamingo
14:39strike compounds. It's not just the loss of a key workshop that hurt Russia in Samara.
14:45What Ukraine has also done, even if that workshop is rebuilt, is cause some serious issues for a space
14:51program that is getting deprioritized the longer the Ukraine war lasts. That may seem like a strange
14:58claim to make, especially if you remember that November 4th, 2024, saw Russia launch a record-breaking
15:0453 small satellites into space, using Soyuz 2.1b carrier rockets. That launch would suggest that
15:11Russia's space program is fine and dandy. But looks can be deceiving. There's a good reason why we
15:16haven't seen a launch like that since, even though Russia is more desperate than ever to get its
15:21satellites in orbit. November 2024 was almost two years ago, and a lot has changed in Ukraine.
15:27More Russian equipment has been destroyed, and Ukraine now regularly conducts deep strikes,
15:32all of which are stretching Russia to the point where it's forced to prioritize between war fighting
15:37and its space program. It doesn't matter how quickly Russia can or can't build Soyuz launches,
15:43the war economy has collided with the space economy, and it's the latter that is losing ground.
15:48The priority has become to get whatever is needed to Russian troops in Ukraine, and to replenish those
15:53troops as they are lost in massive numbers, which all means less money can be dedicated to a Razvet program
15:58that will be beneficial to Russia in the long term, but doesn't solve the immediate problems it has
16:04right now. Russia recognizes this as well as anybody. On April 10, United24 media reported that the
16:11scientific director of the Space Research Institute at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Lev Zeleny,
16:17has admitted during a speech at the Russian Space Forum that Russia is a long way behind its competitors
16:21in the space race. The only project it has, beyond Razvet, is the creation of a new Russian orbital
16:27station. No manned deep space or lunar missions are planned for at least a decade. This comment is
16:33revealing. It shows us that money isn't being pumped into Russia's space program, meaning that
16:38even the vital Razvet program is operating on a shoestring budget. The Progress Center going up in flames
16:44isn't going to help. Now, the Kremlin has to make the difficult choice between pouring money it didn't
16:49expect to spend back into progress or using that money to support troops on the front. Either way,
16:55it's the soldiers who lose out. And one more literally combustible element to add to all of
16:59this is Ukraine's refinery strikes. Soyuz launchers need refined kerosene. That fuel is made in oil
17:06refineries, and those refineries have been taking a beating all through 2026. So much so that Russia is
17:12now dealing with shortages in gasoline and diesel. Again, the Kremlin is forced to prioritize. Does it have its
17:19refineries producing fuel to serve the general population, relieving pressure on Putin in the
17:24process? Or do refineries continue making a type of fuel that the Russian people never see in action
17:29and is dedicated to a space program that is already struggling? Another catch-22 choice with no right
17:36answer. And Ukraine never relenting on its refinery strikes isn't going to help. On August 13th,
17:42the new voice of Ukraine reported that Russia's oil refining is likely to drop to 4 million barrels of
17:47oil process daily, all caused by unplanned repairs and outages due to Ukraine's strikes. That may
17:54sound like a lot of refining, but it's actually a load that hasn't been seen since the early 2010s,
17:59and it comes at a time when Russia needs its refineries to be working at maximum capacity
18:04due to the fuel shortages and the Razvet project. Russia will try to push on. It was launching Razvet
18:10satellites much faster than initially planned earlier in 2026, highlighting its desperation to get its
18:16Starlink replacement up and running. 16 satellites went into orbit back in March, and there was
18:21reportedly a second package sent into orbit in July, leading to Russia having about 40 Razvet satellites
18:27in space. It plans for up to 300. Those plans have been ruined. And it's all thanks to the pink
18:32nightmare dressed up as a daydream that has just wrecked the Progress rocket facility in Samara.
18:37This may have been one of Ukraine's smartest strikes yet, as it keeps Russia's ground forces in the
18:42vulnerable position that they've been in since early 2026. But other strikes are just as smart.
18:48Yes, we are talking about the Wildberries attacks, and they are putting pressure on Putin in brand new
18:53ways as the Russian economy creaks under their weight. Another crushing blow has been struck.
18:58More millions, perhaps even billions of dollars have gone up in smoke, and you can find out all about
19:04it by watching our video. But before you go, don't forget to subscribe to The Military Show and enable
19:09notifications so you don't miss our reporting on the latest developments in the Ukraine war.
19:14And thank you for watching.
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