00:00Just when it comes to the situation and everything that's happening, is it now a kind of situation
00:06where we wait for who blinks first, who disarms, and then who pulls out? And what is the likely
00:12outcome? Good morning, Abir. Well, Kushner coming to Israel and speaking with Netanyahu right after
00:20speaking with Hamas, I think is a positive sign that the Trump administration is still committed
00:25to his 20-point plan. But it's not like Hamas disarms in a day and then all of a sudden
00:30Israel
00:31will pull out. This is a process. This is something that anyone who's serious about the future of Gaza,
00:37about decommissioning weapons from a terrorist organization, would have to understand that
00:41this is something that involves a process. And there have to be concessions on both sides,
00:46or as Kushner put it, cooperation. And right now you have an Israeli government led by Netanyahu
00:52who's going into elections, who sees any kind of withdrawal or any kind of concession of any kind
00:57as very, very bad for him politically. But in reality, if Israel were able to do some kind of
01:04steps, and then for Hamas to take some kind of step, that would be in Israel's interest. But
01:09unfortunately, in the Israeli political landscape, anything that would try to push this plan forward
01:15is seen as a concession, as something bad. So I don't expect to see Israel really do anything on the
01:21Gaza issue. However, I would say that Netanyahu will talk a very big talk about how Israel is not
01:28going to go and do any kind of withdrawal. But it could be that in the background, on the ground,
01:33in reality, there will be certain steps that he does in order to keep Trump happy, in order to keep
01:38the ball moving. But he will do everything he can at home to make it look like he's doing nothing
01:43on the Gaza issue.
01:44Yeah. So, Merav, does he have then political room to maneuver when it comes to accepting this U.S. deal
01:52on Gaza, especially with the backdrop of all of this being the elections coming up?
01:59I mean, his room to maneuver is basically between the status quo and, you know, making the situation
02:05even more aggressive. There is no political landscape or atmosphere in Israel in which
02:11going forward with this plan is somehow popular. So Netanyahu has a far right in his government that
02:19wants to take over all of Gaza, ethnically clans Gaza of Palestinians, settle Gaza. This is something
02:24that isn't fringe. It exists inside the right-wing base in Israel. So for Netanyahu to pull any troops
02:31out of Gaza would be considered, as I said, something very unpopular for him ahead of
02:36elections. So I don't see him doing anything of that kind. I see him doing the minimum that
02:40he can to make sure that Trump isn't unhappy with him. And Trump, of course, has said things
02:46like Israel will no longer strike in Gaza, and Israel strikes in Gaza. Israel even struck
02:50in Gaza when Kushner was in Cairo speaking to Hamas officials. So, no, he has very little
02:55political maneuver in that.
02:59And Trump also says, speaking of what President Trump was saying yesterday, there were remarks
03:04of him saying that he will endorse someone in the elections, a little vague when it comes
03:09to who exactly he will endorse. But when it comes to that relationship between Israel,
03:13the United States, Netanyahu and Trump, do you think that the pressure from Trump could become
03:19an electoral liability, or will it ultimately be an asset for the prime minister?
03:27I mean, in some ways, it already has become a liability because Netanyahu touted Trump in his
03:32first term and in his previous campaign in 2021-22 as Trump's best friend, the U.S.-Israel
03:38relationship. After the Iran War, the strategic failure of the Iran War and everything that's
03:43happened since, it's no longer the case. So Netanyahu can no longer campaign on being Trump's best
03:49friend. Now he can campaign on being strong on security and changing the Middle East and maybe
03:54even on standing up to an American president. And honestly, I don't see Trump pressuring Netanyahu
03:59too much. He might say a thing here or there. He tries to get ceasefires going. But if you look
04:03at
04:03all the different fronts, Israel is still striking. In Lebanon and in Gaza, Israel is just completely
04:08taking over the West Bank with absolutely no U.S. pressure whatsoever. So for the most part,
04:13I think this is just Trump trying to look as if he is able to make some kind of progress,
04:18trying to maybe satisfy some of his Gulf state friends, but nothing real on the ground that can
04:24show real pressure.
04:27Okay. And Mirab, just finally, what is the biggest regional risk if this Gaza situation is not solved?
04:36I mean, first of all, you have two million people in Gaza who have gone through atrocities and a
04:40massacre, and they continue to live in subhuman standards. So that isn't good for anyone. It
04:46isn't good for Palestinians. It isn't good for the region. It isn't good for Egypt. It isn't good for
04:49Israel. So the Gaza issue is, no matter how much people try to forget about it, will remain a major
04:55issue in the region. And you have an Israeli state that has taken since October 7th very,
05:02very aggressive posture, has put troops on the ground in Lebanon, in Syria, in Gaza. All of these
05:08issues are connected until Israel understands that there are prices for its actions, until there is
05:15some kind of regional normalization and agreement that would make Israel withdraw from these areas
05:22and would put into place some kind of diplomacy that has real legs. Until that happens, the region
05:27will remain in a precarious, you know, we have ceasefires everywhere that are not real ceasefires.
05:32There has to be some kind of movement on that. And unfortunately, I don't see anything moving
05:36without a different government in place in Israel. And even then, I'm not sure if there will be movement.
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