00:00I laugh or kid about deadlines.
00:03None of this is funny because lives are impacted, regions are impacted.
00:08But, you know, where do we stand in this conflict from your perspective?
00:13The exploration of the MOU sounds dramatic.
00:16I don't think we're going to see a resumption of a shooting war.
00:20That's not what the exploration of this document means.
00:22This was effectively a framework document that had two major objectives.
00:27One, in the immediate future, immediately upon its signing, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
00:34And then, more aspirationally down the line, a discussion about frameworks for a long-term agreement to resolve this war.
00:42Obviously, one that would have had to deal with issues including Iran's nuclear program and the like.
00:49As you noted, the ceasefire, the efforts to open up Hormuz crumbled really within days and devolved within, I think,
00:58three weeks into a significant flare-up of fighting between the U.S. and Iran.
01:03I think what we'll have with the expiration tomorrow of this MOU is both sides potentially hinting that conditions on
01:12the ground such as they were persist in the absence of something new.
01:16Pakistan, the mediator, said some days ago, claimed that the parties had decided on a de facto extension of that
01:24MOU.
01:25That was denied most volubly by Iran, and it's worth remembering that in the interim, we've had these talks involving
01:31Oman about some kind of peaceable power sharing, if you like, or property share for the Hormuz in terms of
01:38directions of access and egress.
01:41Iran says those talks continue.
01:43In fact, it says the U.S. isn't involved.
01:45The United States says it has been involved, and Oman has served as a mediator.
01:49So there is an overarching, or should we say a backdrop mechanism, still ongoing.
01:54I think what Trump doesn't want, what he would like, obviously, is victory and Iranian capitulation.
01:59That doesn't look likely at all to happen.
02:01He certainly does not want a U.S. capitulation at this time so close to the U.S. midterms.
02:07Hence, as you noted, the U.S. administration looking at an economic alternative to a shooting war campaign or a
02:15primarily combat-driven campaign.
02:17Not that we ever really stopped shooting, Dan.
02:20We talk about the MOU and the ceasefire, but it's been punctuated by skirmishes.
02:25And even in the last couple of days, more ships have come under attack in the Strait of Hormuz.
02:29The U.K. maritime trade operations on Saturday said it heard about a projectile hitting the hull of a bulk
02:35carrier.
02:35Two Abu Dhabi national oil vessels hit on Thursday, another hit on Friday evening.
02:42What we're hearing, though, is that the president wants to take an economic approach, that we won't see a lot
02:47of more deliberate all-out fighting,
02:49and that this week, as the Treasury Secretary warned, we'd get the one-two punched in.
02:54What does Iran and what does Israel expect that will include?
02:59Israel, it's worth noting, there is some common wisdom out there suggesting Netanyahu would be happy to see a resumption
03:05of the war.
03:05Well, that's not borne out by public statements or Israel's own concerns, both economic and its own election coming up
03:12just two months away.
03:13What Israeli officials have been saying increasingly over recent weeks is they believe that Iran is on the precipice of
03:20a major internal collapse economically.
03:22They would like to see a continuation of that U.S.-led pressure on Iran.
03:27They're observing long-term trends, for example, some major Gulf players looking at creating their own alternative exit points for
03:35their energy exports,
03:36given Iran's de facto control over much of Hormuz.
03:40These really seem fairly sanguine about the possibility of an Iranian economic collapse.
03:45That might not be them crying uncle, as Trump would put it.
03:50However, it may make them more open to a diplomatic agreement here, perhaps one involving them surrendering what remains of
03:59their nuclear program.
04:00I think everyone realizes now in the six months of this war that I imagine, and this is pretty much
04:06borne out by what we heard at the outset,
04:08that both Israel and the United States thought it would last no more than six weeks.
04:12It's now in its six months.
04:14There is an understanding that regime change, which was a downstream hope by the allies that would result from their
04:23military campaigns,
04:24that will not happen absent an invasion of a U.S. force, presumably, boots on the ground,
04:31or also on the ground an organic uprising by Iranian dissidents opposition figures.
04:36Well, eight months ago, the Iranian regime brutally put down what was then a sweeping set of protests.
04:44It doesn't appear that a protest movement or an anti-government movement is likely to arise with the sort of
04:50muscle required to change the regime.
04:52So I think everyone now is looking at changing regime calculations by making it intolerable to maintain normal living in
05:01Iran
05:01under what would appear to be an increasing set of U.S.-led sanctions.
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