00:00Which side does the bank think the risk is skewed, upside or downside?
00:07The result was so good.
00:09And looking at the accelerating credit card spending and the very strong credit growth,
00:17does the bank see any risk for the economy to overheat in future, disregarding the geopolitical
00:27situation completely, because it's very unpredictable.
00:32Thank you, Gigi.
00:34Maybe Governor, if you would like to respond first before we take further questions?
00:39Sure.
00:41On the first question with regard to whether we will revise the growth number,
00:47Pada masa ini tak perlu, but any revision normally will happen during the budget announcement.
00:54Norman, in terms of how broad-based is growth, it is broad-based.
00:58As you know, the economy is very diversified.
01:01And of course, we have seen that the main driver is domestic demand, but we have strong support
01:07from the external sector coming this quarter and last quarter especially.
01:10So I would say it is broad-based.
01:12And even within the export sector itself, the support for the economy has also been diversified
01:19and broad-based as well.
01:20And we have seen both E&E and non-E&E also growing.
01:25And in addition to that, we also see increase in the ICT services sector as well.
01:29So this is broad-based.
01:31And whether it is sustainable as we go into second half of this year, we have seen that
01:37we have been experiencing growth that is above our expectation for the last three quarters.
01:44And looking at the drivers of growth in terms of consumption, investment, exports, tourism
01:51and the rest, all these factors that are driving growth is still there and will continue to
01:57take us into the second half.
01:59But having said that, of course there will be some adjustment to the drivers of this growth
02:05itself.
02:05And given the uncertainty in the global economy, uncertainty in terms of the Middle East conflict,
02:12whether it's going to be prolonged or it's going to be even worse or it's going to get
02:15better, of course this may weigh on the growth itself.
02:20And if you look in terms of growth at the second half of last year, it was very good at
02:265.4%.
02:28So of course there could also be some basic fact for the second half of this year.
02:32But having said that, we are confident for this year, it will be within our range, as I said,
02:40most likely it will be around 5% figure.
02:46So to your question on the balance of risk, it is subjected to both, downside and also upside
02:52risk.
02:53As you could see, I think I've listed three upside risks, the de-escalation of the Middle East conflict,
02:58if it de-escalated and it provided, it supported a stronger global growth, certainly it will
03:06be an upside.
03:07Second, if the demand for E&E continues to be strong, that will also be an upside for
03:12growth.
03:13Third, if we see higher tourism arrivals and higher tourism activities and spending and
03:18also the ICT services giving the demand that's coming in, that will also be an upside.
03:23But of course there's two possible downside risks if there's prolonged conflict
03:28in the middle, and so if we see lower the expected commodity production given the weather conditions
03:34and the rest.
03:38Any overheating, I don't see that at this point of time, despite that we have recorded strong
03:44growth for the last three quarters, we don't see excessive demand pressure at this point
03:49of time.
03:50Demand is steady and resilient, but it's not excessive.
03:59I appreciate it.
04:01I appreciate it.
04:03You
Comments