00:00How do you expect the Malaysian economy to vote for the remaining of the year,
00:03especially considering the current market conditions?
00:06When we look at the Malaysian economy, 2024 was a very good year,
00:11where Malaysia's GDP grew 5.1%.
00:13In fact, we expect the momentum to continue going into 2025,
00:18especially the early part, and with domestic demand continue to hold up
00:23due to steady private consumption as well as investment growth.
00:28But however, as we all know, after the implementation of the tariff,
00:35the expectation going especially into the second half of the year
00:39would be for some economic slowdown.
00:43The view that we are taking here is that looking at the GDP components,
00:48we expect private consumption to continue to hold up in the first half going into the second half
00:55because, as we all know, in the Budget 2025 announcement,
01:01Prime Minister has unveiled a series of stimulus that will continue to support domestic demand
01:07and also in terms of private consumption.
01:11But however, I think the downside risk here, looking at the GDP component again,
01:16is on private investment.
01:18Here, the expectation, the uncertainty of the possibility of a global recession
01:25will lead to manufacturers, investors holding back on their investment plan.
01:32And that, I think, will slow down on the investment growth in Malaysia.
01:37But having said that, again, when we look at the economy as a whole,
01:44domestic demand will continue to stay healthy.
01:49And therefore, our expectation would be for Malaysia economy to hold up in the region of 4% to 4.5%.
01:58In line of that, we are downgrading our GDP growth forecast from the current 5.2%.
02:07Partly to take into consideration the negative implications from the tariff,
02:15especially on the investment front.
02:18But nevertheless, again, when we look at exports and imports,
02:22Malaysia, we do have a very diversified export market.
02:25We are not just exporting to the US.
02:29And therefore, while most countries in the world will be affected by tariff,
02:34but we do not expect a collapse in export growth going into the second half of the year
02:40because there are exports that will continue to benefit from other export markets.
02:47And on the investment front, even though I guided earlier that there could be some postponement delay,
02:53but we are also continuing to see investment continue to be carried out.
02:59And that's where, you know, Chi Wei, when you talk about some of the investments
03:03that will continue to, you know, benefit Malaysia in the second half of the year.
03:09We do expect the data center investments to continue to come in
03:14because a lot of these big tech companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, as well as Oracle
03:22has committed to expand their data centers as well as AI kind of businesses in Malaysia.
03:30And this, maybe they may delay the decisions, but I think they are still trying to build the market
03:37and using Malaysia as a hub for a lot of these cloud services, and that will continue.
03:44There are also a lot of these committed investments, like multinationals, including some Chinese companies,
03:52that likely will continue because Malaysia provides the integrated ecosystem and supply chain
03:59for especially, like, semiconductors, as well as a lot of these components for, like, solar energy generation, for example.
04:08From a macro perspective, I think it's important for the Malaysian government
04:14to study the possible impact from the tariff.
04:20I think the ultimate goal is to stabilize market sentiment, as well as, you know, continue to provide some support
04:30in terms of monetary policy as well as fiscal policy.
04:35But from our perspective is, in view of the macroeconomic slowdown,
04:41many countries in the world are already engaging in some sort of fiscal support,
04:49at the same time, monetary policy easing.
04:53In the context of Malaysia, while current scenario doesn't really warrant for a monetary policy easing
05:02where Bank Negara cut interest rate,
05:05and similarly for the federal government to introduce fiscal stimulus measures,
05:09but if the economy continues to slow, going into the second half of the year,
05:16my view here is that the first step should be on the monetary policy easing
05:21because this is a pre-emptive measure by the Central Bank to ensure positive sentiment continues.
05:30And if need be, fiscal stimulus will have to come, but it will be at the later stage.
05:39So from that perspective, what we are saying here is that,
05:43in view of what's going on due to tariff,
05:47government around the world, including Malaysia,
05:49may have to take both fiscal stimulus as well as monetary policy support.
06:00Now, where do we get the funding for a national policy easing?
06:05What do we get the funding for?
06:06What we get the funding for?
06:07What we get the funding for?
06:07We get the funding for that as the federal government to ensure that we are aynı.
06:10So down to the beginning for the 2017 debate,
06:11we will be able to anticipate the financial assistance of the federal government
06:14and cover some of our federal government funding.
06:15And we will be able to ensure that we areucks consensus
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