00:00The quarterback tears from Mike Sandoz and The Athletic come out yesterday.
00:03Grandy and I talked about him quite a bit.
00:05I know that's one of your favorite things.
00:07And there are some scheduling quirk.
00:11We're not going to play win-loss.
00:12We're not going to give you, like, whatever.
00:1412 wins, 11 wins, 10 wins, 9 wins.
00:18I find that a little bit boring.
00:20But when you do a little bit of a deeper look at some of the quirks of the upcoming season,
00:27I find it interesting.
00:29I have heard a lot of people talk about how the 49ers go 12-5 last year
00:36with all of those injuries, but they were playing such a painfully easy schedule
00:42and they won't have that to kick around this year.
00:46And my response is,
00:50Warren Sharp has the 49ers this year having the 7th easiest schedule
00:57schedule in the entire NFL, and that is based on an actual metric.
01:02It is based on the projected Vegas win totals for each of the teams.
01:08Now, I know you did a deeper dive on the quarterbacks that the Niners will face.
01:13Right.
01:13And I remember those conversations from last year, and it was laughable.
01:17They were like, none of the elite quarterbacks are on their schedule.
01:20This year, it's different, but not that different.
01:23What did you find?
01:24Well, what's different is at the bottom.
01:26And last year, if you look at who they faced in Tier 1, they only had two games against Tier
01:301,
01:31and that was the Matthew Stafford games.
01:33He was No. 5 overall.
01:35This year, he's moved up.
01:36Last year, they had two against two Tier 2 teams.
01:40They had six against Tier 3.
01:42They had two against Tier 4, but here's where the big wrinkle last year comes in.
01:47They had three against rookies who are never ranked in the Tier.
01:50I believe they went 3-0 against Ward, Sanders, and Jackson Dart.
01:54They did.
01:55And then they had two games against unrated quarterbacks.
01:59Grandpa Rivers off the couch.
02:01Yep.
02:01They won that one.
02:02And Jacoby Brissett was unranked last year.
02:06So five of their 17 were against guys who were not even in Tiers 1 through 4.
02:10Well, and Brissett, did they play Brissett twice?
02:13They played Murray the first time, Brissett the second time.
02:16Oh, it was Kyler the first time, Brissett the second time.
02:17So, you know, in terms of the overall ranking of those quarterbacks, it's 21.6 last year.
02:23And for the guys who weren't ranked, I added in their ranking this year.
02:26And I just gave Phillip 40th last year because he was on the couch.
02:30I had to give him a numerical value.
02:33This year, they've got three against Tier 1s, Stafford twice, and Mahomes.
02:38They've got six against Tier 2 quarterbacks.
02:41And that, to me, is where the bigger jump comes in.
02:44You've got a Jalen Hurts.
02:45You've got a Justin Herbert.
02:48You've got two Darnolds, right, who is up to Tier 2.
02:52Is that correct?
02:53It is.
02:54You've got a Dak Prescott.
02:55Yep.
02:56And a Jaden Daniels.
02:57There you go.
02:58You nailed it.
02:59At a boy, partner.
03:00Now, here's the other, and this is obvious.
03:02This goes without saying, but I'll say it anyway.
03:04Anyway, you don't know that they're going to play all of these guys.
03:08Of course.
03:09The same way Grandpa Rivers got thrown in there.
03:11Who knows who is going to be available and when, by the time the 49ers get him.
03:17So, this is also subject to change.
03:20But I'll point out a little quirk.
03:22Maybe this is a good thing.
03:23Maybe it's a bad thing.
03:25But a lot of what you're pointing out gets condensed into the month of December and actually into January.
03:34There's a four-week stretch toward the end of the year where the 49ers will go home to Stafford, at
03:40Herbert, which is also known as home to Herbert, at Mahomes, and then home to Hertz.
03:46Four weeks in a row.
03:48Two Tier 1s, two Tier 2s.
03:50So, they're very condensed into there.
03:52But outside of that, you start with Stafford in Australia, and then look what happens.
03:59You get back for Malik Willis.
04:01Yep.
04:02And then you get a Jacoby Brissett.
04:04And then you get a Bo Nix.
04:05I'm not saying Bo Nix is bad, but that's still a very young player.
04:10You go to Darnold, and then you're home to Jaden Daniels.
04:15Then you go to Atlanta, and I don't even know who that will be.
04:17Is that Tua?
04:19Is that Penix?
04:20Then you get a week off, and then you'll probably play Mendoza.
04:24It might be Cousins.
04:25Yep.
04:26I put down Cousins for the sake of argument.
04:28I mean, you know, there's a Minnesota on here.
04:30You get to play Jackson Dart again.
04:32There'll be another Brissett or whoever.
04:35Carson Beck.
04:35Yep.
04:36Later in the year.
04:37So, it's better.
04:40It's better than last year.
04:42Yes.
04:42It's still not like a murderer's row.
04:46It's not.
04:46It's an average of 17.4, which means it's about four ranking points per game.
04:51Tougher this year than last year.
04:53And the thing that really stood out to me is last year you had three against rookies,
04:57two against the unranked, Brissett and Rivers.
04:59And this year, even your lowest opponents, you have four games against Tier 4.
05:04But those are at least people who have played quarterback.
05:07Like Brissett and Penix are your Tier 4 guys that you're going to face this year.
05:12And I think that Willis might be the top of Tier 4.
05:15And he's somebody who I think has a chance to be better than that.
05:18He has to go prove it.
05:19But, like, the tiers thing, I don't even know what to do with Malik Willis.
05:23There hasn't been enough football to know who that guy's going to be.
05:26He did some things with Green Bay last year that are pretty interesting.
05:30A lot better than people thought was going to come from him,
05:33which is why he got the contract and the starting spot that he's got.
05:37But he's unproven, and he's early in the year.
05:40It'll be his second start, again, assuming health.
05:43And it's on the road here at Levi's Stadium for him.
05:47So, even if he's good, certainly easier to deal with than Stafford, Mahomes.
05:53No doubt.
05:54Right? All of that.
05:55And I think that the schedule also, early on, is a lot more friendly.
05:59We mentioned this before.
06:00No road games in the first four.
06:02They have the road game, quote-unquote, against the Rams in Australia.
06:05But then you come home, and you've got the three at Levi's.
06:08So, you do have a chance to get off to that really good start.
06:11Three at Levi's, and then your one road trip stays in the time zone.
06:15And then you come back, you get an extra day of rest for another home game.
06:21So, Australia, yes.
06:24The next time they leave the time zone is a month, almost two months later.
06:31Yeah.
06:32On October 25th.
06:33That's the next time they leave the Pacific time zone.
06:37And then you follow that.
06:38You get a bye week after it, followed by another home game.
06:42Before you then go to Dallas.
06:44So, I don't know if this is advantageous or not.
06:48You know, the injury thing and the length of this trip to start the year, Australia.
06:52I know Kyle Shanahan spoke months ago about not really loving it.
06:56Plus, they also lose their game at SoFi against the Rams, which is always kind of an experience.
07:01And I think they feel it's an advantage.
07:03But I'm with you.
07:04NFL gave them a, hey, how you doing on the back end.
07:07Pretty much.
07:08For sure.
07:08And, you know, you get a chance to start camp earlier.
07:10And then you have the game against Minnesota in Mexico City, which is a home game you have to give
07:15up.
07:15But it's a spot that you've played before.
07:17I can't remember.
07:18I think they're going to Colorado Springs after Dallas.
07:21They're going somewhere to elevation.
07:23Altitude, yeah.
07:23Yeah, altitude.
07:24They're going to get there.
07:25That way, when you go to Mexico City, you can assimilate a little bit better.
07:28But overall, the quarterbacks are tougher.
07:30But I think the schedule, as you were pointing out, a little bit back-loaded in difficulty.
07:34And honestly, if you can't rush the quarterback better than last year, it doesn't really matter who you're going to
07:39face.
07:39Well, that's fair.
07:40I mean, that's completely true.
07:42What is it?
07:43Is their win total this year 9.5 or 10.5?
07:46Where's it sitting right now?
07:47I'm seeing 9.5.
07:48You're seeing 9.5.
07:49I think that's juicy.
07:51I don't want to play win-loss with anybody.
07:54And my brain works in a very optimistic way when not given an automatic reason as to why not.
08:02And I know people will yell, injuries, injuries, injuries.
08:04I don't really take into account injuries on August 5th, unless they're of the season-ending variety.
08:11I mean, I've got a little bit of a theory for you about why so many 49ers are missing practice
08:16right now.
08:16And it has nothing to do with a substation at all.
08:19What could it possibly be?
08:20I'll give it to you next.
08:21But, like, what are your larger and easier question based on the conversation we're having?
08:28Because I think it's weird.
08:29I think people think the Niners are going to be good, and they also think they're going to be the
08:32third-best team in their division, which is not normal.
08:34Most people who think their team is the third-best team in the division are not planning on the playoffs.
08:38Over 9.5 is the heavy, likely side.
08:41I love that one.
08:42It's minus 146 for over 9.5.
08:44I think it's a great play.
08:47If you feel good about it, you would probably move it up to 10.5 and then get the odds
08:51in your favor.
08:52Yeah, I agree with you there, too.
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