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00:05I cost says here remain top of voters minds as we get closer to the midterm I guess it's for
00:10joining us now to talk about the Trump economy and chair of the president's economic message
00:14White House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett everybody's going to lead with
00:19that including us but you're certainly going to hear it from mainstream media that affordability
00:24is on on everyone's mind Kevin we did have a pretty good inflation number the last one that came out
00:31but oil prices went back up above above 80 we had Tom Leon I don't know how much you follow
00:39him he
00:39thinks that it's all about shelter costs that have actually been moderating and that maybe we start
00:46getting better numbers and maybe Kevin Warsh doesn't have to be as concerned about inflation I guess you
00:52would share that viewpoint right well the inflation numbers have been fantastic the last couple of
00:56reports and the thing about them is it wasn't a story of energy it was really about everything else
01:01that president Trump has been doing like you saw the prescription drug prices dropped a lot because
01:06of Trump Rx and the most favored nation negotiations and our dereg efforts are also putting a lot of
01:11downward pressure on prices and so I think the question is is it going to continue and I think
01:16that you're right to highlight shelter costs and one of the metrics of shelter costs that you I find
01:23most interesting is that they're going down pretty rapidly in places like California because everybody's
01:28leaving and so when we look at the aggregate numbers the fact that it's actually even though
01:33they're high prices in California it puts downward pressure on inflation because shelter costs are such a big
01:38share of inflation and everybody's leaving the state well I mean you actually hear don't worry about
01:45electing socialists inflation's back above three percent that's the that's really the Democratic we have a big
01:54tent so we're really not worried about you know getting rid of the presidency and the Senate and all the
02:00prisons but inflation's up 30 basis points to three point whatever whatever they use you shake your
02:08head when you see that you know I got to say that that if the socialists have their way then
02:14the
02:14prices won't matter at all because the stores will be empty that's what happens when you have socialism
02:18and Joe you'll remember when I was CEA chair before we put out a chapter in the economic report of
02:24the
02:24president warning about socialism coming and I wrote a book called the drift stopping America's slide to
02:30socialism because we could see it coming in the first term and when we did that when we put out
02:34the
02:35the chapter the Democrats went nuts and said we were the most partisan White House ever well now they
02:39kind of wish they went back and read that chapter because this is what's happening to their party
02:44you know what else is a an easy a slam dunk to just show a chart of and that's and
02:51I saw someone
02:52tweeted out that actually from a financial network did showing GDP coming down to 1.5 percent
02:59it's like numbers are really good to use when when you don't look behind the numbers but you know we
03:06actually had Roger Altman on who was a Democrat and talked about 3.9 percent was maybe the number that
03:14was
03:14more appropriate if you think about all of the the imports coming in for data centers that's what lowered it
03:22to 1.5 what do you think the actual GDP is running right now right you know you're right the
03:29the final
03:29sales are the things that's like what people in the u.s. are buying you know final sales and final
03:36sales
03:363.9 last quarter but they're about that over the last year as well and if you look at why
03:42final sale sales
03:44have come down or have been a bigger number than the GDP number that are really two reasons one is
03:50we cut the
03:50heck out of government spending with doge and the other is that we've been importing stuff for the data centers
03:55and so between those two things if we if you import a lot of capital goods in fact we have
04:00a measure we've started
04:01to follow which is the quality of imports and so if you're importing stuffed animals for the carnival
04:06well that's not a really good import but if you're importing a capital machine that's going to produce output
04:11and jobs of the future that's that's a really good import right now the quality of imports is the highest
04:16it's ever been
04:17and so what that means is that future GDP is going to benefit from all of those new factories and
04:22new
04:22machines
04:24you're a NEC director do you do you ever talk to uh the secretary of war or or what I
04:32mean it so much
04:33depends on what happens uh in Iran right now Kevin is that just not not in your in your sphere
04:39do you
04:39worry about things I mean it affects oil prices the president said it said to me I don't want to
04:45I
04:46definitely don't want my biggest fear is to be Herbert Hoover I don't want the world to get bogged
04:51down in a forever war where all the work we've done on on the economy side um you know gets
04:59affected
04:59by what happens you know in foreign policy right right between uh secretary Rubio Hegseth and the
05:07president they make all the decisions uh a log of course with help from the vice president on what's
05:12going on in the Middle East but what we're charged with doing is following closely what happens to oil
05:20markets and helping everybody think about what we can do to make sure that the shock from oil should
05:26there be one is minimized globally as you've seen that we've done that we waived the Jones Act and now
05:32there's like shipping in the U.S. is four times what it was uh before the war because we've got
05:36foreign vessels
05:37moving uh domestic fuel around within the U.S. instead of from abroad remember the Asian refineries
05:43said we can't ship stuff to the U.S. anymore because because of this conflict and then what we did
05:49is we
05:49sent it from the Gulf of America instead we've got something like a hundred billion dollars worth
05:54of sales of fossil fuels which are now Americans buying from Americans because we waived the Jones Act
05:59that's the kind of thing that we've done to minimize the price uh effect for Americans and we'll continue
06:03to do so if necessary but no we don't make decisions about what's going to happen in the war what
06:07about
06:07the other Kevin how you think he's doing you think he should have raised rates or do you think um
06:12you
06:12think he should be giving you know I think we I think we should have a Fed meeting every week
06:18but that's
06:19just me and and make it a two-day meeting and have it every week and have them talking do
06:25we need
06:25more or less um spoon feeding about what the Fed's going to do well well the problem is that that
06:32our
06:32good friend Ben Bernanke came in and said that the Fed needs to be more transparent and then they
06:37started putting up their dots and all these other things to tell us what they were thinking and then
06:41they were so wrong that it actually increased uncertainty because wait a minute these guys don't
06:45know what they're doing I'd rather not be transparent if they don't know what they're doing and and I think
06:50that what's happened is that all the many many voices in the Fed including people that don't know what
06:54they're doing have created this cacophony of confusion and that uh you know Kevin Warsh has
07:01come in and he's fixing it he's fixing it and he's taking control he's established these outside
07:06task force to look at the models that have been so wrong and he's really moving things in a positive
07:12direction and so we support the independence of the Fed we'll let him decide on whether the data make
07:16him want to move interest rates this way or that but we think that the positive momentum that he's
07:20created the Fed is really impressive Kevin we I think someone asked you what do you
07:24think the biggest risk facing the economy and you actually said the socialist communist Democrats
07:31have a big victory and then that starts to uh to actually affect the policies of local governments
07:40and the friends I guess it already is in New York City uh if you think about it and again
07:45if you go
07:46back and look at the chapter I wrote uh with my team in the economic report of the president last
07:50time which the president signed off on if you look at what happens once socialism takes over then uh things
07:57get bad really fast and so Venezuela became socialist uh their energy production got cut down no almost
08:03zero uh you know the grocery stores whatever somebody socialist they they get empty uh countries
08:09that adopt socialism within a few years have skyrocketing death rates uh both because of violence and
08:15because of starvation and so the history of socialism is a really a history that should be gone and the
08:21fact that there are many many people of the political party that think that they should support
08:26something they don't know what they're supporting they should go back and read the chapter they
08:29should go back and look nope there's we just lost the light well can you still wait we can just
08:36listen to you we still have legacy media uh I saw uh maybe if I step back you'll get more
08:43light
08:43yeah here we go I saw someone over the someone over the weekend trying to get Joe Manchin
08:48yeah the socialists are trying to shut me down but you guys didn't let him thank you
08:51yeah exactly telling Joe Manchin uh what do you mean you can't support you what about all the good
08:57parts of socialism can't you support any of that we actually had a legacy media type you know trying to
09:04force poor Joe into saying something good about socialism you know what you need what you really need to
09:10do Joe like like find whoever the leading scholar right now on Hayek the road to serfdom everybody
09:15should read the road to serfdom right now I know how socialism leads to totalitarianism but there
09:20must be some person who just wrote their thesis about that bring them on the show and let them
09:24explain it to everybody because Hayek came in what happened was after World War II because we had
09:30centralized production to defeat the Nazis there were a whole bunch of socialists in the UK and
09:34the US that wanted to take over the economy because they said look we've already centralized
09:37production so let's just be socialist that's why the CEA was created that's why the OECD was
09:42created because there were non-socialists who wanted to stand up and stop that before we created a
09:47road to serfdom and so yeah definitely bring some somebody in to talk about Hayek we've got to
09:52learn it that Reagan was talking about freedom but you can't pass this down genetically every
09:58generation and we're failing because generations apparently aren't learning about and you know
10:02socialism is not far from communism and then you got you know the sticky little situation where 100
10:08million people die or or worse but anyway um thanks Kevin Hassett yeah thanks Joe great to talk
10:15thank you see you later
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