- 2 days ago
The crew debates what realistic expectations should be for Houston's rushing attack and what level of improvement would make the offense significantly more dangerous.
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00:00Two days away from training camp, John Lopez, excited to get out here and see this team.
00:05But I'm going to be honest, I think that the biggest thing, this might not be right,
00:10but it feels like the biggest thing that we should be looking for is actually the run game.
00:15I mean, that's fair. We all know about the offensive line, but they go together.
00:18Right, exactly. They go together. I know that some people, I was like, okay, well,
00:21some people will say CJ Stroud and where he is, but I don't know that training camp does much for
00:25you there.
00:26And I think that the regular season and more importantly, the postseason is what you're looking for there.
00:31With this, they went into the draft. They went through the offseason.
00:35Everything that they did was geared towards running the football and what it looks like is going to matter a
00:40great deal.
00:40And I was thinking over the weekend, a couple of things.
00:44There was a couple of things that brought me to thinking about this run game.
00:47Both of them firmly plant me as a dork. And I think you understand.
00:52And I'm using this in the true sense of dork, not nerd, right?
00:54I feel like nerd is, oh, man, you like numbers. You like, you know, you like, I guess, dork is,
00:59it transcends.
01:01It's not just about studies. It is just, oh, man.
01:04Yeah, dork is a little harsher.
01:04Yeah, you're not cool. And I understand that I was not cool because I was reading a football almanac
01:08and I was listening to a football podcast.
01:11Don't get me started on that.
01:11These were the things that I, oh, I will. I will. I'm excited to get to this because I'm ready
01:15to defend myself.
01:16But both of them and both of them, the run game came up and in various different ways.
01:22And it got me to thinking, I think we all expect the run game to be better or at least
01:26hope the run game be better.
01:27One, how much better do we expect it to be, which I think is a conversation we've had.
01:31But more importantly, what kind of better do we expect?
01:34Because we, I mean, better is not a singular judgment.
01:38It is not just, OK, well, they run better. Well, in what ways?
01:40And so I'm very curious to think about what are the ways that we could see them being better?
01:44Because I was listening to Clayton Adams, who was actually the Cowboys offense coordinator,
01:49but he was brought in there to be able to do, you know, do some run game stuff.
01:53Does that sound familiar?
01:53Yes.
01:54And he was talking on the athletic football show.
01:56And this is cut four, Fig, about explosives and their impact on winning.
02:01If you have more explosive plays the last three years, more explosive plays and less turnovers than your opponent,
02:08teams won 89% of the time.
02:10And so the problem with that is, what you have to try to figure out is,
02:16you're about four times more likely to commit a turnover when you pass the football than you are when you
02:21run.
02:22You're also about twice as likely to create an explosive play when you pass than you are when you run.
02:28And so there's some give and take that goes with that.
02:31But then, you know, it goes back to that thing about the other team being able to run the ball,
02:35being a disease for your entire team, is what's the secret sauce there?
02:39Well, the secret sauce is if you can throw four explosive runs into a game,
02:44you're probably giving yourself a really high chance of winning.
02:47Is it possible that this team is going to be better at least at explosive runs,
02:50even if they're not as good at just, like, success rate, so to say,
02:53or just, like, being four yards in a cloud of dust?
02:55Like, what kind of better are you expecting?
02:58I'm not expecting that.
02:59Really?
03:00Yeah, I'm actually more the other side.
03:01And frankly, I think D'Amico Ryan's, look,
03:04who doesn't want four explosive plays and an 89% chance of winning?
03:08Of course you do.
03:09You take those.
03:09But in terms of, like, what do we really want from this run game,
03:13I think they want second and, you know, sort of options.
03:20You know, you run or pass, like second and five.
03:22Oh, so just staying on track.
03:24Yeah, yeah, I think that's what they want because it eats clock,
03:27it controls the ball, it keeps your defense on the, you know, on the bench,
03:33even though, you know, it gives their defense more reps to be able to be dominant
03:36once they do get in there.
03:38I think, of course, you want the explosive runs,
03:41but I think what they really want in their heart of hearts is, you know,
03:45second and manageable, second and sort of mysterious, you know,
03:49in terms of what they're going to end up,
03:51the defense is going to end up guessing about.
03:53Sure.
03:53And third and short.
03:55I think they want to just boom, boom, boom, boom, boom,
03:58the 4.2 yards per carry in a game.
04:01You know, there's something along those lines.
04:02I think that's what they want.
04:04I mean, you'll take the explosive, of course,
04:06but I think that's what they want.
04:07I don't disagree with you,
04:09but this is where I'll bring you back to my almanac reading.
04:12Yes, yes, again, we will talk about this at some point, I'm sure,
04:15because I sent these fellas clips from the almanac that I was reading.
04:19I don't know if they read any of it.
04:20Oh, I read them.
04:21Really?
04:22Oh, yeah.
04:22I didn't think so.
04:23I was looking at it, and then I looked at the very top.
04:26It was on page 500.
04:27That's right.
04:28Whatever it was.
04:29That's right.
04:29And I was like, just random.
04:31How many pages does this almanac have?
04:33It's a lot of them.
04:34It's a lot of them.
04:35But one of the things that comes up in this is just like, hey,
04:38man, the idea they're going to run the football better.
04:41We look at the offensive acquisitions, and we've talked about this, but seeing some of the numbers that a football
04:47almanac will give you.
04:48Wyatt Teller has had the downturn in the last couple years.
04:51What is the expectation for him?
04:53Ed Ingram, who I've watched this happen, he was not incredible last year.
04:57It was one of his best seasons as a player, but he was not incredible last year.
05:00And then also, Trent Brown, he was better than what you had previously seen, but he was not incredible either.
05:07If we're talking about success rate with these guys when it comes to being offensive linemen, Tyus Howard was still
05:14pretty good within that.
05:15And so the thing that I ultimately come to is the offensive line has improved again, and it feels like
05:21they've been intentional in that.
05:22But to what degree?
05:23And all of that comes down to, are they good enough to win every single rep?
05:27Because if we want to talk about the ball control, four yards, and a cloud of dust, I think you
05:31need the offensive line to win every single rep.
05:35And I don't think that that's this offensive line.
05:37Now, if I pair that with the watching that I've been doing last year, this is an offense where if
05:42everybody blocks up properly, you can bust an explosive play.
05:46Of course, of course.
05:46And so I wonder if they're actually going to be better in a way that we're going to get two
05:52out of every four plays, like one out of every two plays, where it's we blocked it up really well
05:57and boom, here is seven yards, here's eight yards.
05:59And then there's going to be plays where, well, he missed one because people are going to miss him, and
06:04that one might be a stuff.
06:05And it might be more of explosive while not super consistent run game that ultimately adds up to, oh, well,
06:11yeah, they ran for four yards of play, but it's because they had three really big explosives and then some
06:17pretty solid.
06:17That's why I think they want to go the other.
06:19And I understand.
06:20I would love the consistent ball control.
06:23I know exactly what I'm going to get.
06:24I'm not sure that you're getting that with what you have.
06:26Well, of course.
06:27I mean, that's part of the intrigue of training camp.
06:29But, you know, the one thing that I had to guess, he's never told me this, kept D'Amico Ryans
06:34up at night over the course of last season was all those negative plays on first down.
06:39Yeah.
06:39Or all those, you know, second and nines, you know, on second down.
06:44That ate him up.
06:46And I think that's why their whole charge, bigger dudes, you know, nastier dudes.
06:51We don't care about, you know, getting a 22-yard run.
06:55Again, we'll take it.
06:56Who wouldn't?
06:57But we want four, six, seven, four.
07:01You know, and that, I think, is what they – I think that's their marching orders.
07:04Just control the line of scrimmage.
07:06And then the other thing that that does, that D'Amico Ryans absolutely loves, fourth quarter.
07:10You know, there were several games where the Texans in the fourth quarter did manage to sort of control the
07:14ball or have a big drive to kind of seal a win or protect a lead.
07:19That was his – that was his joy, to be able to control a fourth quarter offensively like that.
07:24From the 2-8-1, this is a crap take.
07:26Dick Fair.
07:27No one – no way you can game plan to be an explosive run game.
07:30You have to win in the trenches first.
07:31I'm not saying the game plan for it.
07:33I'm saying what do we actually see.
07:34Do you have it?
07:35Yeah, do you have it?
07:35And that really comes from, like, I don't know that they win – that there are going to be a
07:39team that wins as consistently as you need to to be the, you know, the winning trenches type run game.
07:47Right.
07:47That's the question that I'm asking.
07:48And it comes from a little bit of negativity, I understand.
07:50I do think that they have the capability within the guys that they have where they're going to hit.
07:56And when they hit, I think they can hit big.
07:59Don't know the hit rate is going to be as consistent as we are hoping that it will be and
08:02that it seems like.
08:03And so my expectation is one where I go, this – we might be kind of hoping for something that
08:08might be beyond what they can do.
08:10Now, hopefully, I am wrong.
08:11I think we all want them – want me to be wrong in that they are indeed that offense that
08:15wins in the trenches consistently.
08:17Yeah.
08:17I'm not certain that that's how this goes, though.
08:19I am certain that that's how they're building it.
08:21And the other tell here is the tight ends.
08:24You know, the fact that they brought in Moreau.
08:26You know, they have these – the confidence in bringing in multiple tight ends and maybe 21.
08:32You know, I mean, that has all the markings of, boys, we're going to go boom, we're going to go
08:36boom, and we're just going to deliberately go down the field.
08:38No, for sure, because I would love to be the person that can just take all the good reps that
08:44we've seen from these various different guys, right?
08:46Whether it's Ed Ingram, where there's good reps where he's throwing dudes out the club.
08:50Trent Brown, he's absolutely sending dudes way all the way out of the game.
08:54Wyatt Teller, obviously, I don't have to tell you about the good reps that exist there.
08:57Even Ariante Urshory.
08:59Ariante Urshory has been fantastic in some instances, but we have to consider all of the data set.
09:04We can't just throw out the data that we don't like.
09:05And I've seen, in re-watching these last year's season, I've seen some really poor reps from Ed Ingram that
09:11I had forgotten.
09:12I've seen some really poor reps that I think I had probably just put as rookie from Ariante Urshory that
09:16I can't forget.
09:17Talk less of, like, Brayden Smith, Wyatt Teller, Trent Brown, who just didn't play as much.
09:23There's bad reps on – and I understand, there's bad reps for everyone, but there's some really awful reps from
09:28them that make me go,
09:28well, is this going to be one where they win fairly consistently?
09:31And I'm not talking 100% and I'm not talking 90%, but they win 75%, 80% of the time.
09:36I'm not certain that that's actually the case here.
09:38The thing that is worth mentioning here, and we still don't know exactly what the philosophy, the approach is here,
09:46but these backs getting lighter and more sleek, does that feed into more of what I'm talking about?
09:54Or maybe, hey, we want to be able to break some bigger plays and get that speed going on with
09:58these running backs?
09:59No.
09:59We'll have to see.
10:00It's a fair question.
10:01It's just a thought that I had where I was like, what style of better are they going to be?
10:05I do feel that they will be better, but I think that the style of better also matters, right?
10:09If they are able to truly control the clock, that impacts way more than simply what you've got going here,
10:15right?
10:15That's how you bleed a team dry, where you just, here's five yards, here's six yards, here's four yards, here's
10:21six yards.
10:22You will absolutely kill the opposing team.
10:25I'm very curious to see if they're actually capable of doing that, and we'll get some little bits of insight
10:30once they start getting on the field at the Houston Methodist Training Center for training camp,
10:34starting on Wednesday, this Wednesday.
10:37And you'll be able to hear our insights from that here on Houston Sports Leader Sports Radio 6.