00:00Joining us now is New York Times Kiev bureau chief Andrew Kramer.
00:02Andrew, great to speak with you and set the table for us as we look ahead to this meeting next
00:07week.
00:07There have been a series of conversations, if not formal meetings, at these international summits.
00:12What do you expect to come out of that meeting in Washington should they get together next week?
00:18Well, thank you very much for having me on, and I apologize for some of the connection problems here.
00:25The peace talks essentially stalled even before the Iran war began.
00:30For months now, we've had back-channel conversations, but no real progress.
00:34It would be an important step if at this meeting, which is scheduled for next week,
00:40we see a suggestion that these talks could move forward with probably the central issue being control of the Donbass
00:49region in eastern Ukraine,
00:50just as it was in February when they broke off last time.
00:53Has there been any movement there from Zelensky?
00:56I mean, I remember a year or two ago, it was we're going to fight for every inch of territory.
01:00Has realism come, Tom, to Kiev in the fact that Ukraine does seem to have some momentum at this time,
01:07and maybe if they're willing to settle, they know that they can end this?
01:10Or is that still not something they're willing to talk about out loud?
01:16Well, I think the issue is Ukraine will fight as it has no choice.
01:23The issue is when will Russia settle the war, a country with larger territory, more population, more resources.
01:31The talks had held up over a formula for joint political control of the still Ukrainian-controlled portion of the
01:39Donbass region.
01:41And Putin had insisted and has said publicly that they won't stop fighting until they control this area.
01:52And neither side has accepted the compromise of joint control.
01:58So I think that right now the war is moving in Ukraine's favor.
02:02The momentum and initiative is on Ukraine's side.
02:05We have multiple strikes in Russia almost every day, as well as strikes in Ukraine.
02:14And the front line has not moved now for months.
02:18So the representation had been last fall, the Russian representation, that the Donbass would be captured within seven or eight
02:24months.
02:25And this was taken on board by some of the on the U.S. side at the meeting in Anchorage
02:30and afterward.
02:31But that time has now elapsed and there's been no movement.
02:34So it's unclear that Russia could achieve these goals militarily.
02:38It's been trying to capture this area for more than 10 years since 2014 and has not achieved that militarily.
02:46There's a window of about six months, the Ukrainians believe, while their technological advantage at this stage is still effective
02:54before Russia is able to catch up with that.
02:57So that's where we're at.
02:58It's really a window of Ukrainian advantage and whether that can be translated into a settlement to stop the war.
03:06Andrew, I want to ask you sort of where we're at in terms of what the fight looks like.
03:10And so we've seen reporting by you and others about the way that Ukraine is targeting sites in Russia now,
03:15energy sites in particular, Moscow, St. Petersburg.
03:19I was struck listening to Greg Myrie of NPR, who's done a lot of tours of duty in Ukraine,
03:23talking about how it's perilous now in Ukraine to go to a gas station to fill up your car, that
03:28these are being targeted as well.
03:31What does the war look like on the ground today in terms of how it's being prosecuted?
03:37Sure. I'm in Zaporizhia, which is in southern Ukraine.
03:41It's a city which is often targeted for being closer to the front line.
03:45And there are really two wars.
03:47There's the battle for control of territory and there's the air war.
03:52And because the ground war has been essentially stalled for more than two years now,
03:58but really ground to a halt six months or so ago, it's becoming an air war.
04:04And both sides are hitting critical infrastructure, military targets, energy sites.
04:10So I was just here in Zaporizhia this morning and we had glide bombs.
04:14We had three glide bombs come in and target an industrial area of the city.
04:19And every other gas station in this town, I think, has blown up.
04:22So it's really a long range attritional warfare using these types of long range drones and airplanes and question of
04:34which side can hold out longer.
04:36Now Russia is larger.
04:38It has a larger economy and more resources.
04:43But there are ways in which this is a disadvantage as well.
04:46There's asymmetry.
04:47Because Russia has more of a developed economy, it also has more things that can be broken, that can be
04:53blown up by Ukrainian drones.
04:54So it has more to lose in this battle.
04:56Ukraine has also adapted over four years.
04:59And the strikes on Russia really only got rolling in a significant way for about a year now.
05:08The oil port of Novorossi, for example, is now closed.
05:11It's one million barrels of oil a day exported through there.
05:15About a quarter of Russia's refining capacity is destroyed.
05:18But just in the last week or so, we had 150 ships were targeted, Russian ships were targeted in the
05:26Black Sea.
05:26So they have a lot that can be damaged if this goes on.
05:31You're seeing, it seems suddenly, last month or so, this penetration by Ukraine into Russia further and further targeting these
05:39sites.
05:39Is that a progression of the technology?
05:41Is that a progression of where they feel they are politically and diplomatically, that this is now an acceptable thing
05:47that Europe and even the U.S. to some extent will not punish them for?
05:51Or is it a little bit of a combination of both?
05:54Well, I think it's a little bit of a combination of both.
05:57It's largely technological.
06:00These are Ukrainian-made munitions.
06:03They don't need to ask permission to use these.
06:06And it's also a function of geometry.
06:08If you look at the map, Ukraine is on the inside of a circle, essentially, and Russia is on the
06:13outside of a circle.
06:14So once you get past the front line, you're moving into ever and ever larger territories in Russia that are
06:22impossible to defend with air defenses.
06:24Because it's not even, you know, you travel an extra 100 miles.
06:28You double the range of your drone.
06:31You're covering four times as much territory.
06:33It's an exponential expansion of the territory that needs to be defended by air defenses.
06:37And the opposite is true when weapons are coming into a more confined area.
06:43So there's an actual geographic advantage in the battlefield.
06:50And they're reaching out to ever deeper areas in Russia that are essentially undefendible.
06:55There was a, you know, strike on two men recently, which is in Siberia.
07:01They've hit the Omsk refinery.
07:03So the ranges are out, you know, well over 1,000 miles.
07:07And it's a combination of technological advantage and also relying on their own weaponry rather than donated weaponry where there
07:16are restrictions.
07:16They have limits, yeah.
07:17Andrew, the minute we have left, I just want to ask you about President Trump's attitude toward the war and
07:21toward President Zelensky as well.
07:22And Laura Loomer, noted conspiracy theorist, occasional Pentagon correspondent, and Trump whisperer.
07:28MAGA influencer, yeah.
07:29All of that.
07:29In Ukraine recently, sat down with Ukrainian media and offered an apology.
07:33Let's take a listen to what she had to say.
07:34And I feel really terrible for some of the things that I've said.
07:37So I would like to apologize on your show to the people of Ukraine for some of the things that
07:42I've said about your country.
07:43Because they've been very kind to me.
07:45And I highly doubt that I would be welcomed in Moscow.
07:51An astonishing about face there from Laura Loomer, which gets me to the other about face that we've seen from
07:55President Trump.
07:56So certainly at the NATO summit, the G7 before that, we had President Trump really sounding a more positive note
08:00about Ukraine.
08:01Again, in the minute we have left here, your assessment just about the U.S. and his engagement with the
08:06war now as we see it.
08:10Well, I think Russia, excuse me, Russia has dominated some of the diplomacy for the past year or so.
08:17But Ukraine is working hard to make inroads with the MAGA influencers, with the Republican Party in the United States.
08:25And that visit to Ukraine, I don't think should be underestimated.
08:28That was an important step and accomplishment for Ukraine to win over an important voice in President Trump's movement.
08:39There's also been the actual battlefield shifts have favored Ukraine.
08:44And I think this is changing the opinion of changing the views of members of the Trump administration.
08:51And I think this is changing the view of the Trump administration.
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