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The Nats play a late-July series with real playoff implications. It's a new day for Nats baseball.
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00:00Also getting ready for the biggest game of their year and the biggest series of not just this season, Danny,
00:06but of the 2020s.
00:07You go back to the 2019 World Series and they're probably, I don't even think I need to say probably,
00:13there's not been a series this big.
00:14They are right now trying to stay above .500.
00:18On top of that, they have a chance to get on a heater going into the trade deadline and force
00:24the hand of the front office to add.
00:26They're within two games of the wild card and they're entering a three-game series against the team they're chasing.
00:32So they control their own destiny to effectively be in the wild card spot at the end of this series.
00:39What else needs to be said? This is a massive three-game set.
00:42There were moments in previous years where we'd say, hey, this is the first time they got a chance to
00:46be over .500 this late into the season.
00:48Or any of these other kind of, I don't want to say made up, but sort of marginally important milestones
00:54where you go back to 2021.
00:55Hey, if they don't do well here, maybe they trade somebody or something like that.
01:00But this baseball team has a chance to do something.
01:05And the team that they're playing directly is here.
01:07And this is not April.
01:09You know what I mean?
01:09Like this is the latest it's kind of been they've flirted with being on the periphery of a postseason berth.
01:15Now, again, there's a lot of bodies that climb over.
01:17So much baseball we played, et cetera.
01:18But this is a good team that comes out, comes in winning eight of their last 10 in Arizona.
01:23There's clubbing the ball all after the yard.
01:25And the Nats are 5-5 in their last 10, which kind of fits.
01:29This is a 500-ball club.
01:30But you're basically going, you've got a chance here.
01:32You went two out of three against the Diamondbacks.
01:35It's game on.
01:36You know what I mean?
01:36Like you've got Eduardo Rodriguez tonight, who's their ace.
01:39It's one of those things where it's a validating milestone where you're this late in the season.
01:44You're beating a team that's kicking everyone else's ass right now and catapulting themselves into that wild-card spot.
01:49This is really cool.
01:50So here's why tonight feels so big to me.
01:53You just mentioned that Eduardo Rodriguez is pitching for the Diamondbacks tonight.
01:57He's their best pitcher.
01:58He's their number one.
01:59He's good.
02:00For the Nationals, you're countering with a Carson Palmquist Open, who is a guy that's kind of one of the
02:08last players on the roster,
02:10lefty reliever, not ever used in any leverage situations, but occasionally used to open games for the softer-tossing righties,
02:18Miles Michaelis, or Zach Littell.
02:21And Littell's going to be the bulk guy that comes in after him tonight.
02:24But Eduardo Rodriguez has a 2-6 ERA in 20 starts, and in 116 innings has a whip a little
02:31over one and pitched at an all-star level to this point at 33 years old.
02:35The Nats have seen him a couple of times.
02:36In fact, we saw him pitch against the Nationals, very different situation, but in West Palm Beach when he was
02:41pitching, if you remember, for Venezuela at that point.
02:45This is a huge game because if you can beat the Diamondbacks with the best of the three pitchers they're
02:49throwing at you,
02:50they're throwing lefties who are guys who spent more time in AAA this year than the major leagues the next
02:56two days.
02:56The Nationals are outstanding against left-handed pitching.
02:59If you can beat Rodriguez, who's also a lefty, they're throwing three southpaws at him in this series,
03:05with the Palmquist-Littell tandem going, and then you give the ball to Foster Griffin,
03:10you've got an outstanding chance to have won the series after two and be looking for a sweep.
03:15Now, obviously it's very hard to win no matter what, and just having Foster Griffin pitch doesn't mean anything.
03:20But they're 17-4 when he is the starter for this team this year, Danny.
03:24So, with him going tomorrow, that's the game you have the best chance to win in the series.
03:30So, I kind of think you've got to find a way to split the first two games,
03:33and then the third game is going to be a toss-up with Myles Michaelis on the hill
03:38because they don't have someone pitching who's got a whole lot of pelts on the wall.
03:41You don't have someone pitching you have a whole lot of confidence in.
03:44But their number one goes today, your number one goes tomorrow.
03:46So, if you can steal this one, you're in a pretty good spot.
03:49100%. And again, this is one of those on-paper matchups, as you said,
03:52a guy that's having an unbelievable season, who we saw in spring training,
03:56and we're kind of like, eh, he looks fine.
03:57We're going to be a true honest-to-goodness ace for Arizona this year.
04:01He's been outstanding, as you said, pitching to a mid-twos in a really tough division.
04:07And here we are with, on paper, one of the worst chances to win of any team
04:12that's in the wildcard contention, where you're opening up with Carson Palmquist,
04:15and then it's a Zach Littell follow.
04:17You're going to go, all right, it's going to take 11, 12 runs to win this thing,
04:19and even still, you might not. It doesn't look good on paper, but, you know,
04:22a lot of things for this team have not, certainly.
04:25Griffin goes tomorrow. That's your best bullet.
04:27That's your best chance against Mitch Bratt.
04:29But so now, you find the way to win tonight or Sunday,
04:32and that's kind of what this team has done.
04:34It's usually, you can't count on both Michaelis and or Littell
04:37to give you a legit start or bulk relief appearance, whatever you want to call it.
04:40So you find one of those two guys who throws okay, keeps you in a ballgame,
04:43you won a 7-6 slugfest, and you're in business, man.
04:46You are now, you know, chest puffed out, feeling pretty good about yourself.
04:51I wonder how important this series really is for the Paul Toboni decision.
04:58As you and I sit here, we know how relevant this series is to the postseason push
05:02and to the wildcard.
05:04You sweep the Diamondbacks, you're up a game, and you're probably in the wildcard,
05:07pending some other results from some other teams.
05:10If you lose the series, right, you lose two out of three, now you're three games back.
05:15The momentum not only has been quelled with the, you know, ice water poured all over you,
05:20but a team that you're chasing and you're trying to stack up with and say you're as good as,
05:26just send a message saying, hey, we're actually the better of the two teams, right?
05:29So I get all that.
05:31But what I'm wondering is, if you sweep Arizona or the antithesis of that happens,
05:37I have a hard time believing that Paul Toboni is going to make that big of a decision
05:42based on three games, right?
05:44So there's still three more against Toronto after that.
05:47So even if you sweep the Diamondbacks, you can't fall on your face against Toronto.
05:51That's still before the deadline, obviously, as is the series after that.
05:56I think it's against Atlanta.
05:58But as huge as this is, I do believe this is the biggest series they've played
06:02in six baseball seasons in the 2020s.
06:06I stop short of saying, if you sweep the Diamondbacks,
06:09it means definitively that they're going to buy.
06:12Or if you get swept, that they're now going to sell.
06:14There's just too many other games between now and the deadline.
06:18And also, I don't think that's how front offices operate.
06:21It's certainly not how they should operate.
06:25So what I've kind of gone with here in my mind,
06:28even though we're kind of acting like we're doing the hook thing
06:31where we're running to Rufio, then back to Pan,
06:34where we're like, they're going to buy, they're going to sell
06:35with every win and every loss.
06:37I really believe they're kind of going,
06:39we know exactly who we are and what we're going to do.
06:42This is who they are.
06:43They're the 500 team.
06:45And a win here or there, whether the bullpen holds a two-run lead or not,
06:49isn't going to change who they are and what they need.
06:51Does that make any sense?
06:53So you're right in the sense that this group,
06:56who is, and Toboni specifically, has been adamant,
06:59yeah, your timeline might be accelerated,
07:01but we are not going to panic react.
07:03We're not going to go, oh my God, we took two out of three.
07:06We're now bulk buyers.
07:09And not that that was ever on the table,
07:10but you know what I'm trying to say.
07:11It's a, they've got the big enough sample
07:15to figure out who they are, and they're so damn smart,
07:17they know exactly what they need and what the shortcomings are,
07:20and they'll kind of still kind of move around the edges.
07:23I don't think losing two out of three to the Diamondbacks
07:25or beating the Diamondbacks two out of three
07:27is going to be the, okay, now we've decided
07:30we're changing our plans one way or the other.
07:32Does that make sense?
07:33Yeah.
07:34The Nats lineup, by the way, I was just looking,
07:35is not in yet publicly.
07:37Might be posted in the clubhouse.
07:39Toby's down there so I can fire off a text and see what they got.
07:42But specific to who the Diamondbacks are trotting out,
07:45their lineup's out, and here's why Palmquist is opening.
07:49So Arizona's lineup, Cattell Marte, their second baseman,
07:53who has been an all-star in the past and has had some huge seasons,
07:56he is a switch hitter.
07:58And Marte's a guy with 18 home runs this year and about a 260 average,
08:03not at the level he's been at recently,
08:05770 OPS is the lowest we've seen from him since 2022.
08:09But you want to turn him around if you can,
08:11and they're going to do that and have him bat right-handed against Palmquist.
08:15Then you've got Corbin Carroll,
08:16who has torched the Nationals at this ballpark.
08:19One of the great players in baseball.
08:21Pretty free, an all-star there, yeah.
08:22Small guy.
08:23But Corbin Carroll, that second, is left-handed.
08:26So you're going left on left with Palmquist there.
08:28And then Aroldo Perdoma, who has become a really good shortstop,
08:32last year really broke out and played great,
08:34has not played anywhere near that level this season, if I'm being frank.
08:37You know, he bats third in this lineup.
08:39He is also a switch hitter.
08:41So you'll turn him around to bat him right-handed.
08:44And so if there's ever a time, you know,
08:46I feel like they've gotten into the habit of almost using the opener for Littell or Michaelis,
08:51no matter what.
08:51But if you're choosy about it, you can kind of make up your mind.
08:55The Diamondbacks want to trot Marte, Carroll, Perdomo at you in the first inning.
08:59You might as well go left on left against Carroll and turn around Marte and Perdomo.
09:03That's what they're doing.
09:05Then they come at you with Gabriel Moreno, their catcher, who's right-handed.
09:08Nolan Arenado, their third baseman, who's right-handed.
09:10In this lineup, they're only going to have three true left-handed hitters
09:14because the Nats are opening with Palmquist.
09:17I think it's a smart point.
09:19Yeah, so you're right.
09:20At a habit, you kind of go, well, there's a couple righties up there,
09:23but we just don't want to have, you know,
09:25Michael will start the game where we're trying to hide Littell or whatever.
09:27This one makes perfect sense, to your point,
09:29because they have some combination usually of Carroll, Perdomo, Marte
09:33at the top of their order in some capacity.
09:36And, you know, there have been a number of guys that they've gotten
09:38who have been, you know, kind of disappointing, like guys like Max Kepler,
09:41et cetera, who they were probably counting on for more that haven't delivered.
09:44But, yeah, that top of the order has kind of been the engine.
09:47This group, by the way, has been slugging the bejesus out of the ball here
09:50over the last couple weeks.
09:51Ten-run performance last night, a 15-run performance earlier in the week.
09:55So, Nats have their work cut out here.
09:56You hope you can kind of limit the damage.
09:58That's my view when it's a non-Kavali-Griffin day is let me be within a big swing
10:04and I'll take my chances because this lineup, more often than not,
10:07gives you that big swing.
10:09Grant and Danny on the fan.
10:11I'm at Nationals Park.
10:12Nats Diamondbacks, 645.
10:15The scheduled first pitch tonight, 615 pregame with Charlie Slows and Dave Jagler.
10:21The other storyline here, and we talked about this on a new episode
10:24of Bustin' Loose Baseball that dropped today, me and Toby, is this is the first game
10:29of this magnitude that a lot of the really good young players on this team have played in.
10:33And if they do their part and they operate the way they should, Danny,
10:37they're not going to think any differently about tonight.
10:39You're James Wood.
10:40You're just going through the same pregame prep and motions that you typically would.
10:44You can't think this is the biggest game I've played in, but it is.
10:48And in the same way that C.J. Abrams just carried them at Coors in Colorado
10:51and some huge games that are season definers and potential decision makers
10:56ahead of the trade deadline, James Wood, C.J. Abrams, Foster Griffin,
11:02when he makes his start, perhaps his last at Nationals Park, we don't know.
11:06But the other guys that mean a lot to this team,
11:09this is a chance to really cement yourself this season.
11:13You've been waiting to play in games like this in some cases for guys for several years.
11:17Foster Griffin's been waiting his whole life for a start like tomorrow.
11:20But in Wood's case, it's been parts of three seasons here with the Nationals
11:24and two full years going back to last year basically where you've been dreaming on this.
11:29This is a big game and hopefully a packed house against the team that you're chasing.
11:34What a great opportunity to see what we got here in terms of, I hate to use like clutch gene,
11:41but think about it.
11:41Juan Soto always rose to the occasion.
11:44It kind of started very early in his career.
11:45Heck, they won the World Series.
11:47He was 20 years old and turned 21 during the World Series.
11:49He's going deep in Houston against Verlander and Garrett Cole.
11:52Like from the moment he came up, he kind of always rose in the big moments for that team, right?
11:56Bryce Harper, I know you hate him now, same exact thing.
12:00He had huge swings one time after another in October for this team in the playoffs at a very, very
12:05young age.
12:06100%.
12:06This is July.
12:07I'm not pretending like it's the playoffs, but this is the closest thing to the playoffs
12:10that a lot of these guys have ever played in,
12:13and I cannot wait to see how they respond and what it looks like.
12:15It's your first taste, and that's so instructive.
12:19That's the key part of it, right, is you don't get to play those October games without the July games.
12:23You don't get to play the meaningful one where you're taking Hunter Strickland deep.
12:27It seems like every other at bat if you're Bryce Harper in 2014
12:30without having some down-the-stretch games in August and September
12:34and winning divisional games or beating the team directly in a wild card.
12:38When they got their number one, you got your number 16 organizationally going,
12:42numbers approximate.
12:43So, yeah, that's the point here is I know it's not the same,
12:47and we tasted the thing before.
12:49We talked about this with the then Redskins for so many years.
12:53I understand it ain't the NFC Championship game that we want, Dallas game, in 83.
12:56When we're doing a, hey, this regular season game in December is pretty important.
13:00If they win that, they're back in contention for the wild card spot.
13:03It ain't the same.
13:04It scraps from the table.
13:05But when you've been starving for a while, this is as big as it's been.
13:09And they're bigger on the horizon, hopefully, if this group acts accordingly.
13:13But this is your first taste of that.
13:14I'm with you, man.
13:15It's okay to acknowledge this is not your average July baseball series.
13:19No, and I like doing it.
13:21It's fun.
13:21I mean, it does feel very fun to be back out here.
13:24And I am really curious to see what the environment's like tonight
13:27because you and I and Nats Marks, you know,
13:30the people that listen to Bustin' Loose Baseball or that are daily listeners to this station
13:34and season ticket holders, we know how big of a game, how long it's been,
13:38how fun tonight could be.
13:40But I do wonder for the casual D.C. sports fan if this reaches and meets that threshold of,
13:46all right, I'm going to take the kids out there
13:47because they're playing against the Diamondbacks in a big spot.
13:49I'm not really sure.
13:51You know, Jason Derulo's performing after the game in a concert tonight.
13:54The concert games throughout the summer are always very well attended.
13:58You're going to get mid-30s, thousands of people out here.
14:00And it's a funny crowd because as the night goes on, it gets more and more packed.
14:05It's funny because, like, in the sixth inning, people are still streaming in center field gate
14:09and you're thinking, why in the heck are these people coming to the game this late?
14:12And it's just people that are coming for a meal.
14:14They'll sit there with the game in the background, and then they'll watch whatever the concert is.
14:18So I know by the end of the game it's going to be pretty raucous,
14:20and you hope the Nats have a lead and the bullpen can hold it
14:23and that you're going to get the electricity and the vibes that you want out of this contest.
14:28But I'm just fascinated to see what the environment's like.
14:33It's gotten better all year.
14:34The tarps-off section's been alive and takes up and spans a section or two,
14:38and it's very loud on the broadcast and gives some ambiance.
14:41The attendance has gone up.
14:42It's still one of the lower third of the league attended ballparks,
14:46but it's certainly better than it was in early April.
14:48So I think this is a nice little litmus test on where the fan base is right now.
14:53I mean, if it just feels like a normal July game from the last few years,
14:57like no one's getting the memo that this is important stuff,
14:59and people roll in for a Derulo concert,
15:02I mean, then how much do you really care about the fact that the fans re-engaged or are excited?
15:07You know what I mean?
15:07If nobody's coming anyway, then maybe it makes it a little bit easier to say,
15:11well, it's not like we're selling out and we're kicking those people after they came back to the ballpark.
15:17So I think the numbers are also an interesting part of this whole conversation on this homestand.
15:22That's a sharp point, too.
15:24Yeah, like if you're not in the rhythm of it because you haven't done it in seven years,
15:28eight years, whatever the numbers, I guess seven, it may not be part of that thing, right?
15:33I mean, before it felt like it was your birthright that this game, whoever it was against,
15:38you're already 20-some over 500.
15:39You're looking at your watch going, could it be October yet?
15:41Let's fast forward, and they're going to win the division, or they're winning 90-some games.
15:46Well, that's not the case now.
15:47They're scratching and clawing and fighting for it,
15:49and they've got a couple of their massive deficiencies that are really hard to overcome,
15:53and there's a workman-like effort to this sort of thing,
15:56and I think fans are kind of getting behind it.
15:58That's why you see so much passion whenever we bring up the possibilities of them trading anybody away.
16:03There's a level of upset that comes with that,
16:05where they're going, I wouldn't be able to stand it.
16:06I'd be so pissed.
16:07I'd throw this.
16:07I'd throw that.
16:08I'd be so mad.
16:09Well, this will be, again, kind of the proof in the pudding,
16:11where if they, as you said, if it's a $16,000 or 16,000-person fan base.
16:17If it's a $16,000 seat, I wouldn't go either for the record.
16:19I probably wouldn't go either.
16:20Yeah, but if it's 16K people in the yard,
16:22and it fills up at the end because Jason Derulo is going to sing the song that he sings,
16:26all right, we can all kind of act accordingly.
16:28But I think if people, to your point, kind of recognize, going,
16:31hey, this is a nice little milestone series.
16:33This is a measuring stick.
16:33This ain't the A's coming to town.
16:35This is the team that you could, if it goes well, you could leapfrog.
16:39Well, ownership's here, right?
16:40And I guess what I mean is, like, if the ballpark is packed and the vibes are pretty electric
16:46and people are standing on two strikes and it feels like a big baseball game
16:50and that happens three straight nights and they win the series
16:53and then that happens with Toronto and Scherzer comes back and pitches
16:57and, like, everything is not only good on the field where they take two series,
17:01but it's pretty clear as an indication that the fan base is back.
17:06I don't think it's a zero is all I'm saying.
17:08That shouldn't make Toponi's decision.
17:10It shouldn't even influence it.
17:11But I've been around long enough to know that you've got to talk to the owners
17:13before you do anything.
17:14And they're here observing, so I wonder if at all it's part of the equation, so to speak.
17:22I'm headed down to field level.
17:23Batting practice is going to get out of their way in a little bit.
17:25Guys are starting to stretch, so we'll have some of the Nats on our show
17:27as we continue ahead of their big game, their huge series tonight.
17:31Beltway Blitz at 4.
17:33That is about 40 minutes out.
17:35That's when we'll be giving away tickets to Muse at Merriweather Post Pavilion.
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