00:00Officially, again, Bertha has made landfall in St. Bernard Parish near the Biloxi Wildlife Management Area.
00:06Thanks, Ethan, that just coming in moments ago there.
00:09So Bertha has officially made landfall near the area of St. Bernard Parish at a wildlife management area.
00:18So the center of circulation, it's a funny-looking map, doesn't it?
00:22It is a funny-looking map, isn't it? That would be proper grammar.
00:25Deep convection way to the south. Why isn't the bubble plotted there?
00:28Well, I'm going to show you. We have to click ahead.
00:30Because the visible satellite is going to show you the low-level circulation much more clearly.
00:36So that previous map, it showed those bright colors. Those were cold cloud tops.
00:41The previous map was showing you the temperature of the top layer of the clouds that you would see.
00:46Instead of showing temperature, which is really a reflection of how tall clouds are, cold upstairs,
00:51there are some warmer, shallower clouds that were not obvious at all on the infrared satellite.
00:57But our eye would see them if we were to head up to the International Space Station,
01:01or maybe way up there high, way beyond that, and look down at the Earth.
01:05Actually, tens of thousands of feet above the altitude of that.
01:09Tens of thousands of miles, actually.
01:11We're going to go way, way up there, 22,000 miles away.
01:15This is what our eye would see.
01:17And the low clouds, they're going to be bright to our eyes from 22,000 feet up from the geostationary
01:23satellite there.
01:24So that's the low-level circulation there.
01:27And again, we can plot this over a wildlife management area there in St. Bernard Parish.
01:32Officially making landfall.
01:34Peak gusts so far, 41 miles per hour in New Orleans, 40 miles per hour in Eugene Island.
01:38And this storm will continue to drift west with time.
01:42Current wind gusts, 41 miles per hour in New Orleans.
01:45So this is it.
01:45This is the strongest wind so far for New Orleans.
01:47And Bill, remember, he was right up along Lake Pontchartrain.
01:51And we were seeing the overwash, that wind crossing Lake Pontchartrain, blowing water across the road there.
01:58And overall rainfall, it is a more limited storyline here.
02:02Flooding is probably the biggest concern with this.
02:05But the bulk of the deep convection is on the south side of the storm.
02:09And therefore, we're dealing with some fitful little showers here and there.
02:12But they're not that long-lasting in any one spot.
02:15In fact, some of the healthiest showers are way, way east, up into parts of Florida, Georgia, into Mississippi, Alabama
02:23here.
02:23This is Mississippi seeing some of these as well.
02:25And Georgia is even seeing a few off to the east.
02:27But again, the heavier stuff down in southern parts of Alabama and southern Mississippi, as well as southern Louisiana.
02:32So again, a lot of scrappy-looking islands here that are not really buildable.
02:38You can't build on most of them.
02:40There's just too much low-lying area, tidal marshes and so forth.
02:43But there's a wildlife management area where, in St. Bernard Parish, landfall has occurred.
02:48This is what we expect for New Orleans.
02:49We've already seen 40-plus mile-per-hour gusts.
02:52We may see gusts get a little stronger tonight.
02:54We could see gusts to 60 miles per hour in New Orleans.
02:57Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet.
02:59Total rainfall hedging closer to the 2 part of that.
03:02And worse conditions continuing tonight into early tomorrow morning.
03:05Again, I mentioned the ongoing discussion about 30 yards from me there, maybe less than that, among our forecast team.
03:13I would expect to see perhaps a change to this map coming up soon as the storm is interacting with
03:20land.
03:21But there are still some questions about how to handle the uncertainty of will there be a new area of
03:26low pressure at the surface regenerate.
03:30My suspicion is that that's becoming less likely and the center of the storm is probably going to stay over
03:35Louisiana, which would mean a faster weakening trend.
03:39There might still be an inch or two of rain in southwest Louisiana, maybe east Texas.
03:43Here we have 1 to 3-foot storm surge.
03:45Some of the greater impacts here, well, Bill's showing some of them in New Orleans.
03:48Also, concave chunks of coastline here, we're going to be dealing with some issues.
03:52Now, the tide is going out, as Aaron Rigsby said, but tonight we're going to have another high tide that's
03:56going to be a concern.
03:574 to 8 inches of rain, 4 more likely than 8 for some portions of far, far southern southeastern Louisiana,
04:03south of New Orleans.
04:04And our AccuWeather Real Impact Scale rating for this storm is a less than 1, but still, we've got to
04:11keep an eye on it.
04:11It is a tropical storm making landfall.
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