00:04We must understand what happens after climate systems tip.
00:10The Austrian daily newspaper Der Standard from Vienna interviewed climate researcher Anders Levermann in the following the English translation.
00:19The Earth is heading toward a free fall in the face of the climate crisis, says German physicist Anders Levermann.
00:26It remains unclear what consequences the expected instability will have.
00:32The increasing unpredictability of weather and climate poses a threat to society and the economy, writes climate researcher Anders Levermann
00:40in a current commentary in the journal Nature.
00:44The physicist from the German Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PIK, has long been concerned with tipping points in
00:52the climate system.
00:53Those critical thresholds that, when exceeded, trigger irreversible processes that amplify climate change.
01:00In the interview, the co-author of the World Climate Reports talks about a system beginning to go haywire and
01:06about necessary structural change.
01:09Standard.
01:11Europe is experiencing an unprecedented series of heat waves and temperature records.
01:15Is this already a sign that the planet, as you have put it, is heading toward a free fall in
01:21the face of the climate crisis?
01:23Levermann.
01:24This hasn't actually been thoroughly investigated yet.
01:27What we're observing is a sharp increase in weather extremes and fluctuations due to climate change.
01:33Colleagues from London have already shown that the recent heat wave would have been extremely unlikely without human-caused climate
01:40change.
01:40But what we've hardly investigated so far is whether such developments are already linked to tipping processes.
01:48Standard.
01:49What exactly do you mean by free fall?
01:52Levermann.
01:53When we cross a tipping point, the system transitions into a different state.
01:58Some might think the system tips immediately, but the tipping happens over decades.
02:03This free fall is then irreversible and determines the next decades.
02:08So we need to investigate what it means when the climate is in a state of falling.
02:13Standard.
02:14You've been studying tipping points in the climate system for many years.
02:18Now you say that the greatest danger of these developments has been overlooked so far.
02:24What do you mean by that?
02:26Levermann.
02:27Climate models that also describe tipping must calculate the development of the entire planet over very long time periods,
02:34while simultaneously running many different scenarios.
02:38As a result, the focus was mainly on long-term developments,
02:43less on shorter-term statements about weather and its fluctuations.
02:46During the tipping, the climate begins to stagger, and there are enormously large fluctuations.
02:53Until now, we've treated this as an early warning system,
02:57but we've hardly investigated what effects this will have on the economy and society.
03:02We also need to understand what happens after climate systems tip.
03:07The time after tipping points is our future.
03:10Standard.
03:12Where do we stand currently?
03:14Levermann.
03:14Some systems are already beyond their critical threshold, or very close to it.
03:20In West Antarctica and the Greenland ice sheet, the temperature threshold has already been exceeded.
03:26Other systems, like the collapse of the Amazon rainforest or the thawing of permafrost,
03:32could follow in the coming decades.
03:34With ocean currents, we simply can't say at the moment.
03:38But the risk is great.
03:40Standard.
03:41And what awaits us?
03:42Between crossing a critical temperature threshold and the actual tipping of a system, decades can pass.
03:51An ice sheet doesn't disappear overnight.
03:54But once this process has begun, it develops its own momentum.
03:59The system begins to go haywire.
04:02We still know too little about this transition phase.
04:06We will be in this intermediate phase for at least three generations.
04:10We need to understand what will happen to the weather during the time we're falling over the cliff.
04:15Some processes will unfold over millennia, but the unpredictable weather extremes associated with them, and especially fluctuations, have immediate effects
04:25and can be an enormous problem for the economy.
04:29Standard.
04:30Given this volatility, do we simply need to learn to live with the uncertainty?
04:36Leverman.
04:36Leverman.
04:37On one hand, yes.
04:39On the other hand, we must prevent it from getting worse.
04:43When we burn fossil fuels today, we're putting carbon into the atmosphere that was locked away for millions of years.
04:50We need to be clear about that.
04:52We've already caused 1.5 degrees of global warming.
04:56The temperature will continue to rise as long as we burn coal, oil, and gas.
05:02We must bring CO2 emissions to zero.
05:05That means we need structural change.
05:08Standard.
05:10You work in policy advising and were a co-author of the World Climate Reports.
05:15Is climate change still underestimated politically?
05:18Leverman.
05:18At the moment, we're experiencing a phase in which climate policy is being pushed back in many places.
05:26We're seeing this in Europe, and especially strongly in the United States.
05:30At the same time, the risks are growing.
05:33I believe many people still see climate protection as a kind of idealistic environmental project.
05:39But now, dependencies in energy supply are becoming apparent.
05:43If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, if we're in conflict with Russia,
05:47we also know that nuclear power is very unsafe.
05:51In France, for example, nuclear power plants have to be shut down every summer
05:56because the rivers no longer provide enough cooling water.
05:59On the other hand, we've come a long way.
06:02A few years ago, renewable energies were still more expensive than fossil fuels.
06:08That reversed three years ago.
06:10By now, climate protection is also about supply security, competitiveness, and geopolitical independence.
06:18Standard.
06:19In your book, The Folding of the World, you describe a way to combine prosperity with adherence to planetary boundaries.
06:28How does this approach work, Leverman?
06:30If you set a hard boundary for a system that wants to move forward, like our society or economy,
06:37for example, no longer emitting CO2, then it finds new solutions to move forward.
06:43The state shouldn't prescribe every step because that would slow down innovation.
06:48It's about combining freedom with hard-set boundaries.
06:52That's how democracy works.
06:54We limit things we don't want.
06:56Within these boundaries, there's great freedom for innovation and creativity.
07:01However, in the past, the concept of technology neutrality was misused to do nothing.
07:07That doesn't work.
07:08The boundaries must be hard, or there will be no progress.
07:13Standard.
07:13Today, Friday, it became known that the EU wants to significantly slow down CO2 reduction
07:21as part of the EU emissions trading system.
07:24How much does this break the exit from fossil fuels?
07:28Leverman.
07:29It's good that the emissions trading system is preserved in its core,
07:33but at the same time it's being slowed down.
07:35It's important to understand that it's a help for the economy
07:39in undergoing structural change toward a sustainable production method.
07:43It makes little economic sense to slow down this process.
07:48We're simply arriving at the future more slowly.
07:51Do we really want that?
07:54Standard.
07:55Even if Europe achieves its goals,
07:58many tipping processes unfold over decades or centuries.
08:01Can their consequences even be limited?
08:04Leverman.
08:05If we're successful, we can limit global warming to less than 2 degrees.
08:10That's basically unavoidable.
08:13Of course, we should have acted earlier,
08:15but that doesn't mean we can't do anything now.
08:18Every tenth of a degree less means fewer risks.
08:23Standard.
08:24Last year, a much-discussed nature study
08:27on the economic consequences of climate change,
08:30which you were involved in,
08:31was withdrawn and had to be methodologically revised.
08:35which sparked a lot of criticism.
08:37Do such debates damage climate research?
08:41Leverman.
08:42It was a methodological error,
08:44and that's frustrating,
08:45but it changes nothing about the substance.
08:48In the meantime,
08:50several new studies have been published,
08:52including from Stanford and Harvard,
08:54that reach very similar results.
08:56Standard.
08:58Standard.
08:58So, we'll have to accept major economic losses
09:01if we don't act now?
09:03Leverman.
09:04If Europe imports fossil fuels,
09:06that money flows to Russia,
09:08Iran,
09:09Saudi Arabia.
09:11Those are costs for us and our economy.
09:14If, on the other hand,
09:15we build wind farms in Europe,
09:18install solar systems,
09:19and modernize power grids,
09:21we're investing in our own infrastructure,
09:23and the money stays in our economy.
09:26That's a fundamental difference.
09:29In my view,
09:30far too little is being said about this.
09:33Often, only the costs of climate protection are discussed,
09:36not the costs of inaction,
09:38or the economic opportunities of transformation.
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