00:00Elizabeth Candler is a Middle East expert and president of Girton College at Cambridge University.
00:05Elizabeth, welcome. Just how significant is this development?
00:08I mean, is it primarily a political statement or does it represent a broader, credible military threat to Saudi shipping
00:16and global shipping come to that?
00:20Well, it is a very significant development and it's both a political statement and definitely a credible military threat.
00:27The Houthis, Ansar Allah, do have proof of concept.
00:31They largely closed the Red Sea from late 2023 to the middle of 2025.
00:39They claimed to have at that point in time targeted around 200 ships and we know many of those are
00:46verifiable.
00:47They sank four ships. They seized one ship. So this is a very credible threat.
00:53And part of the reason why it's so significant now is that during this 2026 war, the Houthis had remained
01:00largely on the sidelines apart from launching missiles at Israel.
01:06They had stayed out of the Red Sea.
01:07So at this point in time, to say that they're going to enter potentially into the Red Sea conflict against
01:15Saudi shipping specifically shows that there is still potential for this conflict to escalate.
01:22And it fires a warning shot to global seaborne trade and the knock on effects that that will have on
01:28the whole economy.
01:29So given what you say, what military or diplomatic options are realistically available then to Riyadh?
01:38To Riyadh? Well, the Houthis have been locked in a war with Riyadh as part of the Saudi-led coalition
01:48for the last 11 and a half years.
01:51So the Saudis, with their incredibly sophisticated military, they're well invested, they have a substantial air force.
02:00They have a lot of experience at bombing the Houthis.
02:04They bombed the Houthis fairly relentlessly for seven of the last 11 years until 2022.
02:11They know that they can survive.
02:15They know that the Houthis are adept at finding ways to keep on standing.
02:22And I think what we need to remember here is that it's an asymmetric conflict, a bit like Iran versus
02:29the USA.
02:30All the Houthis really need to do to have a major disruptive effect is to launch missiles.
02:37They don't need to be sophisticated.
02:39They don't need to be particularly accurate.
02:42They just need to keep going in order to have massive disruptive effect.
02:47So it's going to be an interesting time if the Houthis do make good on their threat.
02:53Are we looking at isolated flashpoints, then, if I can describe it as hit and run,
02:58or perhaps the emergence of a much broader regional maritime crisis?
03:05I think we're looking at potentially the emergence of a much broader maritime crisis.
03:13We've had flashpoints in the past, but these flashpoints are now so consistent that we're learning.
03:19What are we learning?
03:20We're learning that air campaigns against this kind of non-state actor in Yemen are not that successful.
03:31Don't forget, we had seven weeks of airstrikes and pretty much all-out war between America and the Houthis last
03:39year.
03:40A seven-week conflict.
03:42And at the end of that, the Houthis, who had already been degraded, managed to hold the world's largest military,
03:51or at least the world's most sophisticated military, at bay, and still emerge to fight another day.
03:58So I think that it's very hard to see a way of putting this conflict back in a box.
04:04It could keep on emerging.
04:05And that means it could last months, potentially even years.
04:10Elizabeth Candle, President of Girton College at Cambridge University.
04:14Thank you very much.
04:15Thank you very much.
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