00:00Dr. Elizabeth Kendall is a Middle East expert and president of Girton College at the University of Cambridge.
00:06Joining us now, thank you so much for your time.
00:08Elizabeth, the Houthis now have control, effectively, of the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
00:11They've made really strong gains in Yemen.
00:14Is their ultimate goal to take over the entire country?
00:19Ultimately, that probably is one of their ambitions, yes.
00:23And they're actually looking very much on the front foot in that regard.
00:28But I think their short-term goal is probably slightly more limited, nevertheless very worrying.
00:34They're seeking two elements here.
00:37One is influence, the other is money.
00:41They will get influence by keeping hold of that Red Sea coastal land
00:46and being able to control, effectively, the Bab al-Mandab, access to the Red Sea.
00:52And the second is gaining access to financial resources by shifting east towards Ma'arib, the oil- and gas
01:01-rich province.
01:01So that is what they want probably in the immediate future.
01:05Could you explain why Yemeni government forces, despite backing from Saudi Arabia,
01:11have lost so much ground in their stronghold areas recently?
01:16Yes, it does seem surprising on the surface, doesn't it?
01:21We have the really well-invested, well-supplied military of Saudi Arabia backing Yemeni government forces.
01:30The problem is that those forces are not united.
01:35They're a disparate group, lots of bits and pieces.
01:37We've got tribal militias, religious militias, southern separatists, giants' brigades, resistance forces alongside the regular army.
01:49They're a hodgepodge.
01:50By contrast, the Houthis are battle-hardened.
01:54They now have over 20 years altogether of on-and-off war inside Yemen since 2004.
02:01And then they've had experience over the past 12 years of a civil war in which they've been fighting these
02:10Saudi-backed forces.
02:11So they have a lot of experience of having to be agile.
02:15And they're a learning organization.
02:17They're using artificial intelligence.
02:19So they're a very formidable enemy.
02:22The United States has recently turned down a Saudi request for military backup.
02:27Also, we've heard reports that the U.S. made Houthi leaders in Oman over the weekend seeking apparent shipping guarantees.
02:34What does this tell you about Saudi-U.S. relations, traditionally their allies?
02:40I think this is really bad timing for the United States.
02:45It's not that it doesn't want necessarily to support Saudi, but it really can do without another hot war inside
02:53the Middle East.
02:53At a time when it's just weeks away from the midterm elections and already its war against Iran is so
03:00unpopular inside the United States.
03:03At the same time, we know from the Pentagon that munitions are running low for the Americans.
03:10And so couple that with their experience last year where they did launch in with a very lengthy airstrack campaign
03:18of almost seven weeks, very intense, against the Houthis, emerging not only at great cost, but without a clear win.
03:27It was inconclusive.
03:28Why would they go in again?
03:30So one can understand why they're trying to limit their support to advisers and perhaps personnel inside operation rooms, but
03:38not kinetic activity.
03:40Thank you so much for speaking to us, Dr. Elizabeth Kendall, Middle East expert and president of Girton College at
03:45the University of Cambridge.
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