00:00I am announcing today that the United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal.
00:08When Donald Trump pulled America out of the Iran nuclear deal in 2018,
00:13he made one promise. I will get a much better deal.
00:17Seven years later, America has fought a war with Iran.
00:21Billions of dollars have been spent. Lives have been lost.
00:25The Strait of Hormuz has become a global flashpoint.
00:28Oil markets have been shaken.
00:30And now, a new Washington Post-Ipsos poll suggests
00:34most Americans don't believe Trump will end up with a better agreement
00:38than his predecessor, Barack Obama.
00:42So, did Trump drop the ball on Iran?
00:45What exactly was Obama's nuclear deal?
00:48Why did Trump scrap it?
00:50And perhaps the biggest question, can Trump still fix this?
00:55Let's understand this in simple terms.
00:59First, the Obama's deal.
01:02Let's go back to 2015.
01:04Iran had been enriching uranium for years.
01:06The world feared that Iran was moving closer to building a nuclear weapon.
01:11Instead of going to war, President Barack Obama chose diplomacy.
01:15Along with Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China, and the European Union,
01:20the United States negotiated what happens to be known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,
01:26or simply the JCPOA.
01:29Think of it as a bargain.
01:31Iran agreed to drastically limit its nuclear program.
01:34It reduced the number of centrifuges used to enrich uranium.
01:38It kept uranium enrichment at low levels.
01:41It shipped out most of its enriched uranium stockpile.
01:44It redesigned a reactor that could have produced weapons-grade plutonium.
01:50And perhaps most importantly, Iran agreed to some of the toughest international inspections
01:56ever conducted by the International Atomic Energy Agency, or the IAEA.
02:02In return, economic sanctions on Iran were lifted, allowing it to sell oil and reconnect with the global economy.
02:09Supporters argued that the deal pushed Iran at least a year away from producing enough material for a nuclear weapon,
02:16compared with just a few months before the agreement.
02:19Critics, however, argued that the deal did not permanently end Iran's nuclear ambitions,
02:25placed time limits on some restrictions,
02:27and did not address Iran's missile program or support for proxy groups.
02:35So the question is, if the deal was so good, then why did Trump walk away?
02:40Donald Trump called the JCPOA the worst deal ever negotiated.
02:45His argument was simple.
02:46He believed Obama had given Iran sanctions relief without permanently stopping its nuclear ambitions.
02:53Trump also said the deal ignored Iran's ballistic missile program
02:58and its support for groups such as Hezbollah and the Houthis.
03:02So in 2018, Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement.
03:06He reimposed harsh sanctions under what became known as the Maximum Pressure Campaign.
03:13The expectation was clear.
03:15Economic pressure would force Iran back to the negotiating table and America would get a stronger agreement.
03:22That was the plan.
03:24So what happened next?
03:26Things didn't go according to the plan.
03:28After the U.S. withdrawal, Iran gradually stopped complying with many of the JCPOA's limits.
03:34It began enriching uranium to much higher levels.
03:37It installed more advanced centrifuges.
03:40International inspectors reported that Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium grew far beyond the limits set by the original agreement.
03:48Years of sanctions hurt Iran's economy, but they did not produce the comprehensive new deal Trump had promised.
03:55Instead, tensions steadily increased.
03:59Eventually, diplomacy gave way to military concentration.
04:02The conflict escalated into direct U.S.-Iran hostilities, followed by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's
04:10most important oil shipping lanes.
04:12That dramatically raised the economic and political costs for everyone involved.
04:20So why now the Americans are comparing Trump to Obama?
04:24This is where politics comes in.
04:27According to this new Washington Post-Ipsos poll,
04:31only 23% of Americans believe Donald Trump will ultimately secure a better Iran deal than Barack Obama did.
04:40More people, 37%, believe Trump will end up with a worse deal.
04:44Even among Republicans, only about half believe Trump will achieve a better agreement,
04:50with confidence much stronger among MAGA supporters than among other Republicans.
04:55That matters because Trump has repeatedly argued that replacing Obama's deal would produce a better outcome.
05:03Instead, many voters now see years of escalating tensions, military conflict, and economic disruption without a clear diplomatic breakthrough.
05:11It is important to remember that Obama's deal itself was unpopular with many Americans when it was signed.
05:19Yet today, many appear to have more confidence in that diplomatic agreement than in the outcome of the current approach,
05:27which is still ongoing in terms of war.
05:32So, the question is, did Trump really drop the ball?
05:35The answer depends on what standard we are using.
05:39If the goal was to leave the JCPOA because it had serious flaws,
05:43many analysts would agree there were legitimate criticism of the deal.
05:47If the goal was to pressure Iran economically,
05:50the sanctions did impose significant costs on Tehran.
05:53But if the benchmark is Trump's own promise to replace Obama's agreement with something clearly stronger and more durable,
06:01that objective has not yet been achieved.
06:05And that's the political challenge Trump faces now.
06:08Critics argue that U.S. left a functioning, though imperfect, agreement without securing a better replacement.
06:15And as the saying goes, and it is popular in America also,
06:19that you don't fix things which are not broken.
06:21Supporters counter that a flawed agreement was never worth preserving
06:26and that Iran's regional activities required a tougher response.
06:31Both perspectives continue to shape the debate.
06:34So, another question that optimists would ask,
06:38can Trump still make amends?
06:41Yes, but the window may not stay open forever.
06:44If Trump wants to change the narrative, several things would strengthen his position.
06:48First, reopen sustained diplomatic negotiations while maintaining leverage through sanctions.
06:54Second, pursue an agreement that not only limits uranium enrichment,
06:58but also addresses missiles, verification mechanisms, and regional security concerns.
07:04Third, work closely with European allies and regional partners so that any agreement has broader international backing.
07:12And finally, communicate clearly to the American public what success looks like and how it will be measured.
07:19A negotiated settlement that verifiably restricts Iran's nuclear program
07:24and reduces regional tensions would give Trump a stronger case that he ultimately delivered on his promise.
07:31Without such an outcome, comparisons with Obama's agreement are likely to continue.
07:39So, the Obama administration chose diplomacy first.
07:42Trump chose maximum pressure and later confronted the consequences of a direct conflict.
07:48Today, the debate isn't simply about which president was right.
07:51It's about results.
07:53Can military pressure produce a better deal than diplomacy?
07:56Or does lasting nuclear restraint ultimately require negotiation?
08:01Those questions remain unanswered.
08:04But one thing is clear.
08:05Until a durable agreement is reached, the Iran nuclear issue will continue to be judged
08:11not by speeches or campaign promises, but by the outcomes on the ground.
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