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00:00We're investing, and I think that's the difference between what we've seen.
00:04Really, you know, if you think about the month of June, let's go chase up, let's chase up memory.
00:10And then July opens up, let's sell memory.
00:12And that's not investing to us.
00:14I think that you don't have to own everything.
00:16That's the key thing.
00:18In tech especially, you've got to be selective.
00:20And we've had the very good fortune of outperforming in our S&P 500-focused portfolio is that,
00:25because we don't own everything, number one.
00:27Number two, we are broadening out.
00:28The answer to your question, we are.
00:30Small cap stocks are for real.
00:32If you take a look at inherent fundamentals with respect to cash flow and earnings,
00:37and earnings discernibility in terms of how consistent they are, Paul, it's amazing.
00:41They look amazing still.
00:42And there's still a long runway to go.
00:44Paul, let me interrupt.
00:45Oil lifts fractionally up to 8504.
00:48The headline, Iran asks the Houthis of Yemen to shut Red Sea distant west from the Persian Gulf,
00:55to shut Red Sea if U.S. hits power network.
01:00That's from Reuters this morning.
01:01Back and forth, back and forth.
01:03All right.
01:04So, again, Brian, we're getting into the teeth of earnings here.
01:07Yeah.
01:08That's a tough – the first quarter is a tough bar to exceed.
01:12I mean, earnings in the first quarter out of the S&P 500 were so strong.
01:14How do you think about this quarter?
01:15It is a tough bar, and there was many people talking about that potentially being an earnings peak,
01:20and then the next move in earnings would be the second derivative less positive.
01:24I think that still could be the case in terms of having this trend of less positive.
01:28But positive is still positive.
01:29Double-digit earnings growth is still double-digit earnings growth.
01:32And what we've shown in our history in terms of studying markets,
01:35we have a double-digit performance in the market coming following this type of move in earnings.
01:41Well, and also, to Belsky's point, it comes down to – it's about the second, third, fourth derivatives of AI
01:46now playing out in the market.
01:47Tech is ultimately going to lead in 2K.
01:49You know, they're like Newton and Leibniz.
01:51You know, the two of them, the way they go after calculus, Paul.
01:53Yeah, I know.
01:54But Belsky's a better addresser.
01:55Okay.
01:57Just help me here with my buying SpaceX.
02:00I loaded the boat at 2.08.
02:03Yeah.
02:03Okay, help me here with a round trip on IPO SpaceX.
02:07Dan Ives.
02:08You look when Amazon went public.
02:11Look when Facebook went public.
02:13It's my view that if you take the narrow view over months or six months or nine,
02:19these are names that are transformational names that are going to be a huge part of the fourth industrial revolution.
02:25When you look at SpaceX, I get the volatility and obviously what we've seen in terms of the headwinds.
02:31The reality is longer-term investors that own this, they own it for what's going to be AI data.
02:37They own it for what's really going to be in terms of Starlink.
02:40And to really what Musk brought a vision, we've said, I mean, there's an over an 80% chance that
02:46they ultimately acquired Tesla.
02:49So, Brian, what are we doing here just in terms of, you know, thinking about opportunities out of AI?
02:55Can we even think about opportunities out of AI?
02:57Do I go out and buy healthcare, banks?
02:59I mean, the banks just put up some monster numbers.
03:01What else in this market do we look at?
03:02You know, you think about a day like today with UnitedHealthcare, right?
03:05Everybody thought UnitedHealthcare was done.
03:07And we were very patient.
03:09In fact, I think it was on your broadcast talking about the new CEO coming in and bringing more discipline.
03:13And that's exactly what happened.
03:15So, UnitedHealthcare would be one of them that we stuck with and we're a long-term investor in, kind of
03:19like what Dan talks about.
03:20You've got to believe in the stories and proceed with your fundamentals.
03:25Healthcare is going to, I think, be pockets of their financials look amazing.
03:28You don't need a direct hit on AI for financials, but I think you're going to see a broadening out
03:33of financials into the small banks and into insurance companies and the asset managers.
03:37This financial move is still very, very early.
03:41We're talking the next several years' financials.
03:43Okay, that's where I wanted to go.
03:44Let me go to you, Brian Belsky, first on this.
03:46And we've all experienced this.
03:48It's a party.
03:49It's great.
03:50And then it ends.
03:51I don't see the framework where it ends for Wall Street other than the Fed screwing up.
03:58I mean, other than a high interest rate regime or, as you mentioned, calculus, a first derivative of the real
04:04yield.
04:05I mean, this just keeps on going, right, Brian?
04:08And it's 11 p.m. at the party.
04:09That goes to 4 a.m.
04:10That goes to 4 a.m.
04:11And everyone's waiting for the last shot at 3.
04:14But everyone's teeing this up, Tommy, to blame the Fed.
04:20It's easy to blame the Fed.
04:22Everyone's waiting for it.
04:23Blame the Fed.
04:24The Dow futures are popping 53,000.
04:28That's what I'm talking about.
04:29That's what I'm talking about.
04:30So guess what?
04:30This bull market, this big, giant, secular bull market that we've been talking about since 2009 is not going to
04:37be ended by an AI bubble.
04:40It's not.
04:40It's going to be something else.
04:41And I don't know what it is.
04:43It's going to be a new emerging market.
04:44It's going to be a commodity super cycle.
04:47Something that we're not expecting.
04:48What you just heard there, folks, bronze it.
04:51Forget about Ives.
04:52What Belsky just said, you'd never know what it's going to be.
04:57Boy, is that just the truth.
04:58Paul Sweeney with Dan Ives.
05:00Dan, one of the names in your space that just fascinates me is kind of an old-born one, which
05:04is Microsoft.
05:05This thing sold off hard with a lot of the other software stocks.
05:09I've noticed it's kind of climbing its way back here, up 13%, 14% off of that June low here.
05:14What's the story with Microsoft?
05:15And we've talked about it really for months.
05:19This is one major penalty box stock.
05:21I think investors have viewed it, the relationship with OpenAI, competition from Google and everyone else in terms of the
05:28hyperscalers.
05:29The reality is the AI revolution doesn't happen without Microsoft, with Nadella.
05:34Because if you look at it, it's their core backyard as enterprises move to AI deployments.
05:39I just think a big focus on this earnings season is going to be the hyperscaler growth that we see
05:44from Amazon, Google, and Microsoft.
05:47Because right now, look, the New York City cab drivers bearish in the hyperscalers.
05:51But that, it comes down to earnings in the 2Q.
05:53And they're Jason Micron still, right?
05:56Exactly.
05:56Look, and I think to that point, memory stocks are the golden child.
06:00But it spreads to the second, third, fourth derivative, and it goes to what me and you have talked about.
06:04I've got to wrap up with two key questions.
06:06One to Mr. Ice, one to Mr. Belsky.
06:08When are you going to publish at your new fair?
06:11Are you going to be like normal sell-side publication?
06:15Normal sell-side.
06:16When do we see that?
06:17Over the kind of months, as I ultimately launch on all the names.
06:20Are you going to have people?
06:21Have you hired people?
06:22Yeah, we've already hired a handful of people.
06:25Obviously, the inbound interest is insane in terms of great.
06:29Because look, Tom, we're trying to, you know, I tried to get Belsky, he won't come, you know, whatever.
06:34But the reality is we want to build a modern merchant.
06:37I found great partners to do with.
06:39And it's something we're in 25 plus years on Wall Street to create something that I think is going to
06:44transform in terms on the research bank into everything else.
06:48Okay, so I got the kid over, the 8-year-old kid, and I go, you've got to go to
06:53the Yankees.
06:54So we're sitting by the dugout of the Minnesota Twins.
06:57Oh, yeah.
06:58They won the series.
06:59They won the series.
07:00And they're rocking.
07:02And, like, now we go on the Ulster break, and they're where the Red Sox are.
07:05They're like one or two games below .500.
07:07You've got to play to win.
07:08You're not going to trade it away.
07:10Totally.
07:11Here's the speculation.
07:12I'll be at the Target Field next Friday night to watch the game.
07:15But are they going to buy?
07:16Why?
07:17Because they need – they've got room.
07:19They have room in the bullpen.
07:21They traded everybody away last year in the bullpen.
07:23And they've got this beautiful core of great young players akin to the early 2000s, I would say.
07:30And they've got a shot.
07:31They've got a shot, but they need some back end help.
07:34The uniform.
07:35They've got it.
07:37But Belsky's Minnesota, to what you wear to the games, I think we can do like an Instagram on.
07:42Yeah.
07:43Home opener.
07:45Unbelievable.
07:45Unbelievable.
07:45He's a fashion icon.
07:47I have to say, folks, for those of you worldwide, there's stars and there's stars.
07:52Josh Bell comes out of the dugout, and he's just spectacular.
07:58Can he carry them?
07:59When he swings, I think it's going to be Buxton.
08:03Buxton, when he comes back, he has reaffirmed that he never wants to be traded.
08:07He said, I want to be Joe Maurer.
08:09I want to be Derek Jeter.
08:10I want to stay with one ball club.
08:12He's the true leader of that club.
08:14And now with Correa gone, obviously, they traded him last year.
08:16He is the true leader.
08:17So you get Buxton back, and you get this Luke Kieshaw guy.
08:21Watch him, because they moved him out of the infield, put him in the outfield.
08:24He is going to be a player.
08:25He can hit the ball.
08:26It's like MLB Network listening to you.
08:29It's fascinating.
08:30It's Swiss Army.
08:30All right, since we're talking sports, it's July.
08:33Summer camps are going to be opening up for football.
08:35Talk to us.
08:35Penn State gives 30 seconds.
08:37Look, I was there last week.
08:38I mean, I just love what Campbell and the staff have done.
08:42And I think we are going to shock college football world, because these are guys that
08:47are phenomenal evaluators of talent.
08:49I think we're going to actually contend for Big Ten Championship this year.
08:52They will, like, and then when Belsky's at a game for the wideout, USC will be celebrating.
08:58USC is the wideout game?
08:59I remember, not official, but I believe that will be.
09:03Maybe, kind of, sort of.
09:04We're going to go to Scott Kirby here of United Air.
09:07It's great.
09:07He's a pilot.
09:08You know, he had Bastion on the other day.
09:12The airlines is something that everybody in America is wrapped into.
09:16I remember the day they took Northwest out of Minneapolis.
09:18I can't remember the exact story, but, you know, the airlines,
09:22are they investable, Brian Belsky?
09:25Man, it's really hard not to say it's different this time,
09:27but you think about the structural changes that the airlines have made, number one.
09:31Number two, like Delta, for instance, bought a refiner over a decade ago.
09:34United has done an amazing job.
09:36Kirby's done an amazing job with that.
09:38Delta's number one.
09:40United's a close number two.
09:41They've done great.
09:42Now, what's going to happen with America, it'll be interesting as well.
09:44Dan, I mentioned this yesterday, and I thought of you.
09:47Are the big banks basically technology companies that happen to have Christmas club accounts?
09:52I mean, they're winning on technology, right?
09:55And I think that's the thing that I think a lot of investors have really overlooked,
09:59is in terms of what they're doing.
10:01When you talk about AI revolution, talk about this fourth industrial revolution,
10:05everything, it's really financials that are leading.
10:07And you're seeing it across the board.
10:09It's just a start.
10:10And for the first time in 30 years, the U.S. is ahead of China when it comes to tech.
10:14So, let's see.
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