- 5 weeks ago
Global geopolitical tensions have taken a back seat as investors shift their attention to company results and future business prospects, says expert.
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00:09good afternoon dear viewers you're watching the business today show with me sakshi vatra this is
00:14where i get you all the closing action on the lal street first up let's take a look at what's
00:18hot
00:18in the corporate and the financial world
00:24stock markets remain range bound as investors monitor escalating tensions in west asia
00:29nifty trades around 24 100 mark with modest gains the sensex is also up 150 points
00:36it consumer durables chemical stocks lead the rally
00:43insurance company icic lombard shares stumbled 13 percent after the insurer reported a sharp 46
00:49percent fall in the first quarter profit higher claims fire insurance losses and additional
00:55provisioning for motor third party claims have weighed on the earnings prompting brokerages
00:59to cut estimates
01:06oil marketing aviation stocks remain in focus after the government has hiked the windfall taxes
01:11on diesel and atf exports while cutting the levy on petrol exports the revised duties come into
01:16effect today amid firm global crude prices
01:24sbi funds management's ipo continues to attract strong investor interest on the final day of bidding
01:29the nine thousand eight hundred and thirteen crores a public issue has been subscribed over 18 times so far
01:36with robust demand across investor categories as subscriptions continue to build
01:45the united states the united states unveils a new one dollar gold coin featuring president donald trump
01:50as part of the celebrations marking 250 years of american independence the commemorative coin
01:56carries trump's portrait along with national symbols and patriotic inscriptions
02:07we'll straight up a look at how the markets are trading at this point in time viewers we are just
02:11about 25
02:12minutes away from the days close and you can see 24 075 now the nifty is slipping into the red
02:17you could see
02:18a range pound trade we held on to the gains and above 24 100 for the largest part of the
02:23session today
02:24but we are seeing some pullback now and the market seeing some pressure we are just below the flat line
02:30there is increased amount of sell-off that you can see on the nifty bank uh the index is down
02:35three
02:35tenths percent uh private banks are down within the index psu banks and financial services all three
02:41constituents are down in the session you're also looking at real estate sector now that's uh down over
02:46a percent in the session today you're also looking at the small caps and the mid caps now feeling the
02:51pinch uh barring it stocks fmcg auto pharma oil and gas rest of the pocket seems to be now seeing
02:58some pressure build up onto the d street let's actually pull up the top winners and the losers
03:03on the screen for you we'll quickly look at the it stocks that are dominating the mood today in the
03:09markets after two days of a sell-off wipro 1.7 higher ahead of the numbers hcl tech is up
03:151.7
03:16percent bajaj finance is up one and a half percent as well this is the outlying stock from within the
03:21finance names maruti m&m from the auto pack are doing well and tech mahindra also ahead of numbers
03:26is about one percent higher but on the weakening side you could see definitely names like zomato sbi
03:33life bel from the defense pack those are the stocks that are declining in the session you also have
03:38big names from the private sector banks like hdfc and sridham finance from nbfc space bajaj finsov as
03:46well also facing some kind of a pinch right now let me now welcome our guest on board abhishek basu
03:51malik joins in he's the co-founder and fund manager at srirama managers welcome to you uh mr basu malik
03:57and good to have you with us your sense on the markets currently how are you reading this
04:02extreme amount of sideways uh move that we are seeing in the markets very very small range in which we
04:08have been trading in uh seems like yes we are maybe trying to be mature when we talk about um
04:15what the trump threats have been so far as far as yet again escalating tensions on the west asia
04:20front are concerned yet at the same time we're trying to be mature about it so we're not falling
04:25down too much and we're not being able to climb above a certain level too so how would you explain
04:30uh what's happening in the markets uh thanks sakshi uh i think exactly like you mentioned
04:36uh we are in a range and uh the good part is that uh the the indian markets uh have
04:44not been reacting
04:45very negatively uh to global geopolitics at least in the last one two weeks we had some uh you know
04:54sharp cuts but in general uh we've not been reacting poorly and what is good is that now we are
05:02starting to
05:03see uh reactions only on uh the the quarterly results that are coming out so that is the good
05:10part and just i mean the fact that we've started the uh the results season it will mean that uh
05:16stocks of
05:17industries will uh go up and down based on the uh the results that come through for companies in that
05:24sector and how the management uh or the management of those companies uh guide for uh the future
05:32okay then uh let's also take another breaking news coming in on your screens viewers this is with
05:37regards to the global brokerage houses now turning positive on the indian markets we have hsbc which now
05:43sees sensex at 84 000 by 2026 end also hsbc prefers banks real estate and consumer stocks also the return
05:52of
05:53fi flows is something that they are betting on that could boost the market they're also talking about
05:58lower oil prices as a benefit and also have cut the earnings risk that was persisting a few months ago
06:06as well so that's really coming in as a positive from global brokerage houses as well as far as the
06:13indian markets go um mr basu malik i'll come to you do you still see chances for the markets to
06:20recover
06:20substantially despite the kind of uncertainties we are going through hsbc is now pencilling in 84 000
06:27kind of a target um you know we are at 77 000 odd right now so there is an upside
06:32that they are
06:32pencilling in in the second half of the calendar year your sense my sense is uh you know we will
06:39probably uh uh we we might actually surpass that number uh they're roughly talking about 10 percent
06:47yeah we might end up seeing more than that uh i am actually more bullish uh over the next one
06:53one
06:53and a half years i think uh we will be substantially higher both uh you know across the board uh
06:59mid
06:59small caps are more likely to do better compared to the large caps but overall i think uh the next
07:06year and a half two years should actually be quite good for the indian markets so you believe that this
07:13is the right time for those who are looking at this consolidation as the right time in case we
07:17want to really uh win over the next one to two years perspective this is the right time to enter
07:21the
07:21markets uh i i always say that it's always uh the right time to get into the market but you
07:28need to
07:28have a a five-year time horizon when you are investing in equities but it's always the right time now
07:34is a
07:35you know very good time simply because uh the indian markets have not done uh too much over the last
07:41year and a half two years so uh you know just normal prudence says that we will do well over
07:49the
07:49next two okay there's another breaking news coming in viewers this is with regards to the auto space
07:54the government has unveiled draft cafe three norms that will govern the fuel efficiency standards for
08:00passenger vehicles from april of 2027 the proposed framework tightens the fuel efficiency targets over
08:08the next five years while also giving a major compliance boost to evs to hybrids and flex fuel
08:14vehicles as well we have uh chetan bhutan now joining in on the phone line with me to get us
08:20more details
08:20on this as well chetan finally we are looking at uh fuel efficiency standards uh being uh brought in yet
08:28again cafe three norms are being unveiled these are the draft norms do help us understand how different will
08:35they be from the current cafe to norms that are currently underway and will be on till march of
08:412027 well absolutely uh sakshi the new frameworks uh actually tightens fuel efficiency targets every
08:48year till fi32 and introduces a flexible compliance mechanism for automakers manufacturers exceeding
08:54targets can earn credits trade them with other companies or carry them forward while those falling
08:58short can buy credits the commitment the government's draft also gives us major compliance advantage to
09:03electric uh battery electric vehicles hybrids and flex fuel vehicles through supercarriage well
09:08ethanol blended patrol flex fuel vehicles cng and biofuels will receive a carbon neutrality
09:13benefits and compliance calculations additionally sakshi automakers deploying fuel saving technologies such
09:18as regenerative braking start stop systems efficient lighting will further run incentives encouraging
09:23multiple clean mobility pathways so clearly uh if implemented this would be a major boost uh for few
09:29uh auto companies who are heavily invested and manufacturing electric vehicles while companies
09:33who are heavy into suvs but also uh have to balance it out with their electric vehicles and other
09:38mass flex fuel vehicles as well okay fantastic uh thanks for getting us all of those details uh
09:46draft rules propose carbon neutrality factors recognize carbon neutrality benefits of ethanol biofuels compressed
09:53biogas as well those are very important at this point in time um of course um the draft uses flatter
10:00efficiency curve that benefits lighter and smaller vehicles there uh but of course it's divided
10:05manufacturers some automakers like maruti and toyota they are pushing for compliance leniency as well
10:10let's try and understand what would this mean overall um mr basu malik how would you look at these draft
10:17norms of course we've been seeing over the last couple of months the government's push for
10:21biofuels flex fuels um the push for ethanol higher blends in uh the petrol prices we have also
10:29been hearing chetan got us earlier information about how diesel will also come in into isobutanol
10:35being used as well and now cafe 3 norms are clearly promoting um you know such fuel efficiency so what
10:41does it mean for the auto sector as a whole and for various sectors that you believe will be in
10:45the benefit
10:47uh see i think it's uh you know very clear that from a policy uh framework perspective the government
10:53wants india uh you know the the fuel consumption uh to go down and the and they're actually uh trying
11:03to
11:04push towards that through different means whether it is uh flex fuels whether it is uh higher
11:11ethanol lending whether it is pushing towards evs like we saw in delhi so these are different
11:19mechanisms that the government uh you know is trying to uh formulate and i think over a period of time
11:25uh we will start migrating more towards evs so we are going to get into that loop of uh once
11:34we get more
11:35evs we get better uh charging stations etc and and then higher adoption of evs absolutely we'll get
11:42back to you there's some kind of a network trouble that we are facing right now we'll connect with you
11:46again uh mr bas malik but there's another breaking coming in viewers again from the auto pack this is
11:51hero motor corp which is partnered with germany's ksr group hero to launch uh the euro five plus compliant
11:59bikes expulse 200 for we also to lead the new portfolio hero is expanding the european market
12:06presence and ksr alliance will be driving the global expansion for hero motor corp as well let's quickly
12:13look at how the stock is reacting uh to this news flow and uh pull up the chart right there
12:18this is uh
12:19definitely good for the company collaborating with ksr group to enter the german market and to distribute
12:26euro five plus compliant two wheelers in germany uh making it their fifth european market as well
12:32and of course to presence within the region half odd percent of a rally coming in for hero moto at
12:374
12:38898 is what it is currently trading at as well and this is definitely good news coming in for the
12:45company who's which has been looking at various markets to grow its presence in the european region
12:50as well well let's move forward despite the renewed middle east tensions and a sharp spike in crude
12:57d street remains remarkably resilient that's what we've been discussing and indian markets are holding
13:02firm so what's keeping the investors calm uh earlier my colleague uh shell vatnagar spoke with the trust
13:08mutual fund cio mihir vora on why india may be better placed than the rest of the world listen in
13:16the markets have kind of not reacted uh so much uh to the middle east uh crisis or rather the
13:23re-ignition of the middle east crisis so to say based on president trump's tweets and some some more
13:31attacks over the weekend etc uh and this is in spite of oil prices having moved all up by more
13:36than
13:3710 dollars from the bottom uh my my view is that uh two things uh are in india's favor at
13:43this point
13:44in time uh one is that mentally and you know sentimentally this is happening for the second
13:51time in the last four months uh the markets have seen how the government and the rbi handled the oil
13:58price shock in the month of march to may uh and we also saw how the world reacted by pumping
14:05in from
14:06pumping oil from the strategic reserves and by trying to cool down the price of oil and they
14:11succeeded in doing that you know from a high of 120 dollars they brought down oil prices all the way
14:16to almost uh 67 70 dollars so to say rbi also did very well on managing the currency effectively uh
14:24we've you completely reduced the one-way slide of the rupee uh by uh opening up uh for fii's uh
14:32uh running out tax gains from for fii investments into debt and of course the fcnr scheme that the
14:38rbi introduced the government introduced is also getting in dollars so the currency situation is
14:43also stabilized so we have this learning curve of oil prices we have the currency situation
14:49stabilizing so the markets are saying that uh we don't need to completely panic because in the
14:54medium terms solutions do emerge so that's one big factor a second is uh the whole ai paid which was
15:00completely the frenzy uh two months ago is beginning to weaken a bit uh very clearly i'm of the view
15:06that ai is here to stay it's going to change our lives uh but the valuations that with some of
15:11these
15:11companies have started trading especially in the the semiconductor space and the chip space uh were
15:17obviously not sustainable and we have seen sharp corrections in taiwan korea where all the money
15:22was going and of course into u.s tech also so we have seen correction in u.s tech we
15:26have seen
15:26corrections in taiwan korea where all the semiconductor play was happening so the relative attractiveness
15:31of india which was like completely out of the picture there was no way i play etc is now coming
15:37better and what has also happened is that attractive valuations for fii's you know india has never been
15:44so cheap for fii's compared to the rest of the world because korea kawan went up so much so i
15:49think
15:49valuations reduction of the ai frenzy and the learning curve is keeping the markets afloat
15:56we have mr basu malik also back with us mr basu malik on the it stocks we've had such a
16:01a you know discuss long-term discussion with you on the it pack all through the underperformance of
16:06last one to two years and uh you know some um you know days when we see a sharp pickup
16:12also uh
16:13in the run-up to the earnings season we did see some recovery uh the earnings season that has
16:18kick-started at least it's not as negative as the previous uh quarter uh that's been a relief
16:23but uh what is your own sense on the it pack today we await of course tech mahendra and wipro
16:28also
16:28we've already seen tcs hcl tech um lti mind tree for that matter uh how is your fresh approach to
16:34the
16:35it space at this point in time do you believe that the kind of evaluation they are at currently the
16:42kind
16:42of all they have already seen from their peak 30 40 even 50 percent in many cases does you know
16:47augur
16:48well for long-term investors to look at the sector yet again or do you believe the threat of ai
16:53and
16:53disruptions is so large that we would not know how the companies will perform and be able to deal with
17:00honestly speaking i don't think the threat of ai is actually very important for these companies
17:05although they are selling off on that the bigger threat for the indian uh it service companies are
17:11the gcc's right that that's uh their main competition that's who they are losing out to
17:17because uh ultimately the end clients they will not implement their own it systems they will you know
17:24even if they have to uh use ai uh they will uh come to these it companies themselves so overall
17:33initially i mean maybe six months one year two years there will be a uh you know loss of revenue
17:38because uh companies will be skeptical of giving new projects but uh once this dust settles people
17:45will actually want more right so and and i i believe that uh you know the jevon's paradox is going
17:51to work
17:52it's going to lead to much much more uh you know business for the it companies the bigger challenge
17:59is a lot of the work is now getting shifted to the gcc's uh that is coming up in india
18:05and a lot of
18:06these larger uh outsourcing uh you know previously outsourcing uh clients are now setting up their own
18:12centers uh so that is actually where the bigger challenge is so what i am more positive on uh are
18:19the
18:19mid-tier more focused uh industry focused uh companies so that is i think uh you know where the the
18:27better
18:28stock picks would be okay fair point let me also look at some of the earnings uh that are coming
18:34in just now viewers from the hospitality space we are looking at itc hotels reported q1 numbers
18:40uh the company has announced it's going to be acquiring ghk hospitality as well um you know at
18:46an enterprise value of 155 cross that's an announcement coming in along with the earnings
18:50net profit is up by 35 odd percent but revenue also up by 14 percent ebidda has improved by 19
18:57.6 percent
18:57but despite it we are seeing the pressure on the stock the stock is down uh by about five odd
19:04percent
19:04in the session today that's where the pressure is actually coming in from to you are looking at 173
19:10odd levels of the stock right now that's the first stock that we are looking at uh any indication as
19:17to
19:17why the stock is reacting negatively um of course this is a marquee company uh with of course a legacy
19:24of um you know five star hotels that compete directly with the tarj hotel as well how would
19:30you look at um itc hotels the stock the metrics that have come in on the earnings too i think
19:36i've not
19:36looked at it in detail because it's just coming in so yeah but in general i'm going to be i'm
19:41positive
19:42about itc hotels i'm actually positive about the entire hotel industry as such so uh and the numbers
19:49prima facie look good uh the the stock price movement on the result day uh actually depends
19:56more on on uh you know the positions that traders would have taken earlier so doesn't tell you much
20:01about how the uh stock is going to perform over the next uh you know three months six months or
20:06a year
20:07okay we also have bhel earnings also coming in right now the net profit has come in at 382 crores
20:13this is versus a loss of 454 crores we've seen a reaction on the stock also the company swung into
20:19profit five percent of an uptick coming in there the revenue is up by 40 percent for the company at
20:247 697 odd crores and the ebita at 504 odd crore rupees vis-a-vis an ebita loss of 537
20:31odd crores
20:32the margins are at six and a half percent on bhl do you think this could be the start of
20:37yet another
20:37positive mood the stock has been uh consolidating for a fairly long time would this mean that finally
20:44the turnaround is happening on the earnings and therefore good days ahead
20:48so uh first of all disclosure this is this is a stock that uh we have invested in and have
20:54vested
20:55interests uh i like the company i like uh what they are doing i like uh you know the spaces
21:01that
21:01they are uh you know sort of uh the market leaders in and uh every quarter if you see for
21:08the last
21:09couple of quarters they actually the results are being quite good uh they are on an improvement path
21:15and i think uh that uh that that journey continues it's it's a company which is uh likely to be
21:22one of
21:22the bellwethers in terms of uh you know engineering in terms of the work that they're doing uh for
21:28nuclear uh you know power and all the other for thermal power uh so overall i i'm very hopeful about
21:37you know how bhl is going to perform over the next couple of years from a business perspective
21:44okay we'll quickly look at the market's close viewers we are at 24 081 just about three points
21:50higher so we are going to be absolutely flat as we end the session today um it autos fmcg and
21:56oil
21:57and gas have trended positive but it's the banks that have taken a backseat today real estate also
22:02dragging about a percent lower this is right after we have seen some weeks of positive momentum
22:07we're on the broader market some interesting names that continue to bust towards the end of the
22:12session laser power and infra the debut stock today ends the 24 higher you're looking at premier
22:19uh polyfilms mrs bector's food in fact abacus has uh taken a stake there you can see about a 13
22:24percent
22:25of an uptick there saurashtra cement is high mrpl and chennai petro both are higher mrpl is in fact
22:31risen about 17 percent in the last couple of sessions and you can clearly see the impact of the earnings
22:37come through today about 10.5 percent higher you're also looking at various other stocks that are higher
22:42unimic aerospace elgi rubber uh you know these are the stocks that have definitely garnered the
22:48attention in the broad market space today science dlm is also higher about eight odd percent in the
22:54session so that's where the markets have ended at but let's uh now shift focus to a portfolio
23:00allocation and long-term investing markets may be volatile but what if a 15 to 20 correction hits
23:05right now should you as investors change your strategy or stay invested business today television's
23:11sasa chopra spoke with abacus mutual fund senior fund manager uh prateesh krishna on ideal investment
23:17strategy during a sharp market correction and by a balanced mix of large mid and small cap stocks
23:23can help investors navigate volatility let's listen in
23:28if there is a market correction of say 15 to 20 percent what would be the investment strategy going
23:33forward yes so what we said is i mean you know i think if you look at one of the
23:38you know key
23:38challenges that investors face is to balance uh you know growth with stability right i mean i think the
23:43large and mid cap category and the way we want to manage the fund has to kind of adhere to
23:47this
23:47broader theme right so we would want to provide stability from a large cap portfolio so that 40 42 percent
23:54weightage that we have in large caps it's like steady compounders large companies right i mean where
23:59there is good earnings visibility and the growth will come from the balance mid cap and the small cap
24:05portfolio whether it's alpha generation and uh you know presentations we have highlighted you know
24:09how mid cap offers that huge you know breadth and depth of uh different sectors right i mean like
24:15for example in financials it is typically large banks which are stable in the uh mid cap category we have
24:21fintechs we have capital markets which are the new age new growth sectors right so we do want to kind
24:27of provide this kind of uh both the opportunities for consumers uh for the investors and typically what we
24:33said is i mean so this category definitely from a risk profile point of view somewhere fits in between
24:39the large and the mid cap segment the way we want to run the portfolio with like a certain large
24:44cap
24:44portion and mid cap and the small cap uh the risk profile is definitely you know somewhere in between
24:49i mean like so you'll get a better returns than a typical large cap oriented names and it is less
24:54volatile than the mid cap uh segment okay so that's the way we want to kind of you know position
24:59the entire
24:59uh segment right we'll start taking some of your queries then viewers we have our first query coming
25:04in from suman shekhar from varanasi mr basa malik this question is for you he asks you are cement
25:10stocks a good one-year investment do you think at this point uh cement stocks i mean you actually are
25:17very interesting in the sense that you cannot buy a single cement stock uh look just by looking at uh
25:24just
25:25the name you have to understand uh which geography it is from so uh cement tends to do differently
25:31if they are from the east north south or west so you'll have to pick your spots uh in general
25:37the
25:38challenge with cement for the last decade or more has been that uh you know capacity utilization has not
25:45gone up uh price realizations per bag has not gone up and we are not seeing that much of a
25:51change
25:52uh uh coming in so although we saw a little bit of signs of the uh you know industry getting
25:58consolidated and things getting better but uh it's not sort of uh you know right now at a stage where
26:06there you know you could see a secular bull uh market in uh in cement so there there are probably
26:13better opportunities in the market than to look at cement at this point in time i would say
26:18we also have jaish jihadav from narshik asking you uh which two to three sectors could outperform
26:24till diwali till diwali okay that's a very short period so uh you know you look at i think uh
26:31some
26:32of the rate sensitives uh could actually do well so you know banking nbfcs mfis are definitely a place
26:40to look at uh if you uh look at chemicals uh uh there are a lot of companies which are
26:48uh you know
26:49coming out with good results good prospects uh also if you look at uh uh like i said hotels as
26:57an
26:57industry they they seem to be uh doing very well uh so i mean uh engineering uh manufacturing
27:06today i think like dhel again uh with the same disclosure uh you know again really good numbers
27:12abb very good uh you know news flow so these are sectors that you can look at fantastic mr basa
27:19malik thank you so much for your insights on the markets and for your guidance for investors on their
27:24queries as well with that viewers we'll wrap it up here but in case you too have any questions about
27:29your own investments in stock markets and mutual funds gold your sips then all of those questions can
27:35be addressed to our top market experts who join in on the business today show send us your queries
27:39on the number that's flashing on your screens with that it's a wrap many thanks for tuning
27:42in we'll be back to track the markets tomorrow morning at 9 00 a.m
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