Gold में आना वाला है बड़ा Bull Run, Bullion Expert का बड़ा अनुमान | अभी खरीदें या इंतजार करें? - video Dailymotion

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Is this the right time to invest in gold? Will gold prices rally again in the coming months? In this exclusive interview, Quantum AMC Fund Manager Chirag Mehta shares his expert insights on the future of gold, the impact of the US Federal Reserve, interest rates, the US Dollar Index, central bank buying, geopolitical tensions, and the best investment strategy for investors.    In this video, you'll learn:    Is this the right time to buy gold?  Gold price outlook for the next 3–6 months  How the US Fed and the Dollar Index affect gold prices  Why central banks are accumulating gold  Gold ETF vs Gold Mutual Fund vs Physical Gold  How much gold should you keep in your investment portfolio?    If you're planning to invest in gold or want to understand where gold prices could head next, this interview provides valuable insights from an experienced market expert.    क्या अभी सोने में निवेश करना चाहिए? क्या Gold की कीमतों में फिर तेजी देखने को मिलेगी? इस खास इंटरव्यू में Quantum AMC के Fund Manager चिराग मेहता ने Gold Market Outlook, US Fed की ब्याज दरें, Dollar Index, Central Bank Buying, Geopolitical Tensions और Gold Investment Strategy पर विस्तार से अपनी राय दी है।  #Gold #GoldPrice #GoldInvestment #GoldETF #GoldMarket #GoldOutlook #CommodityMarket #Investing #BusinessNews #GoldPricePrediction #MarketAnalysis  Also Read  Gold & Silver Rates Today (15-07-2026) LIVE: MCX Gold & Silver Price Drops 1% On Elevated Oil Prices :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/gold-rates-silver-rates-today-15-07-2026-live-mcx-gold-mcx-silver-price-24k-22k-18k-gold-prices-news-1522313.html?ref=DMDesc  Gold Rate in India: 18K Gold Purity, Difference Between 22K vs 24K vs 18K Explained & Should You Buy It? :: https://www.goodreturns.in/lw/wealth/nri-wealth/gold-rate-in-india-today-15-07-2026-difference-between-22k-vs-24k-vs-18k-explained-should-you-buy-1522311.html?ref=DMDesc  Gold Rate in India: 18K Gold Purity, Difference Between 22K vs 24K vs 18K Explained & Should You Buy It? :: https://www.goodreturns.in/wealth/nri-wealth/gold-rate-in-india-today-15-07-2026-difference-between-22k-vs-24k-vs-18k-explained-should-you-buy-1522309.html?ref=DMDesc    ~HT.410~ED.468~GR.508~PR.474~GR.122~VG.HM~

Transcript

00:00इस समय जियो पॉलिटिकली अगर देखा जाए तो दुनिया भर में बहुत कुछ चल रहा है देखे एक तरफ जियो

00:06पॉलिटिकल टेंशन हैं दूसरी तरफ अलग-अलग तरीके के ट्रेड डील्स हो रही हैं डी डॉलराइजेशन की खबरें आए दिन

00:13सामने आती रहती हैं य

00:27के उपर भी नज़र डालना बहुत जरूरी है और कॉमोरिटी मार्केट को लेकर के बुलियन मार्केट को लेकर के खास

00:33तोर पर कई तरीके की रिपोर्ट्स पब्लिश होती रहती हैं आज इस वीडियो में एक बहुत खास रिपोर्ट के बारे

00:39में पहले हम बात कर लेते हैं �

00:41देखें स्टोनेक्स की एक रिपोर्ट आई उनका कहना है कि अगर बहुत ज्यादा हाला जो जियो पॉलिटिकल चल रहे हैं

00:47दुनिया में वो नहीं बिगड़ते हैं यानि कि अगर सब चीजें थोड़ी पॉजिटिव रहती हैं थोड़ा ऑप्टिमस्टिक रहती हैं तो

00:53साल

00:542026 के आखिर तक सोने की कीमतें करीब करीब चार हजार डॉलर प्रतियांस के आजपास रह सकती हैं और चांदी

01:01के लिए इन्हों ने कहा है कि 55 से 60 डॉलर प्रतियांस के बीच कारोबार कर सकती है यह आप

01:06देखें यह रिपोर्ट इसलिए हम इस वीडियो में आपके सामने में

01:08कर रहे हैं क्योंकि कुछी समय पहले जो इससे पहले की रिपोर्ट स्टोनेक्स ने दी थी उसमें कहा था कि

01:14साल के अंतक सोना 4000 डॉलर के नीचे चला जाएगा लेकिन सेनारियो ऐसा बना कि यह काफी ज्यादा पहले 4000

01:22डॉलर के नीचे जाता हुआ में सोना दिखाई दिया त

01:35सब कुछ आज अस वीडियो में समझने की कोशिश करेंगे हमारे साथ एक बहुत खास मेहमान जुड़े हुए हैं चराज

01:40महता जी हमारे से यहां पर जुड़े हैं क्वांटुम एमसी से सर वेलकुम तो गुडूर्ट रहा है और आगे के

02:02लिए जो भी आउटलूक एक्सपर

02:03देख रहे हैं उसको किस तरीके से सम्मराइज करेंगे अब तक हमने जो देखा है गोल्ड मार्केट फंडबेंटल्स जिस हिसाब

02:12से चल रहे है उस हिसाब से चल रहा है हमने जैनिगुरी में पीक आते हुए देखा था फच्च पन

02:17सो डॉलर के पास उसके बाद गोल्ड गि

02:29तो हमें लगता है कि अभी जो मार्केट प्रास कर रहा है वो यह है कि आगे जाके

02:36interest rates in US. The expectation is 2-3 rate high in US market.

02:44We think that here will probably be rate high in US market.

02:49When real yields, interest rate minus inflation,

02:54if it stays up or goes up, gold will remain in the damage,

03:00that's why the dollar also comes in strength,

03:02and that's why gold also comes in impact.

03:05We think that further, real interest rates can go down here.

03:10There are two reasons.

03:11One, interest rate high in US will be less.

03:17Growth will start to come down to the growth,

03:20because we are seeing the leading indicators.

03:22We are seeing growth in some places,

03:26and inflation will remain sticky.

03:29So, real interest rates will go down here,

03:32and that's why gold will be able to get support.

03:35So, we think that downside risk is less than gold,

03:39based on fundamental factors.

03:41And if the way we are seeing pan out,

03:45that real interest rates go down here,

03:48or in the dollar,

03:49or in the dollar,

03:50then gold will get very good support,

03:52and gold prices will start to improve.

03:55So, our view is very constructive.

03:58Here are the circumstances,

04:00which we drive the gold.

04:02And if investors are looking for adding,

04:05to add,

04:06because already 30% correct the gold.

04:10Normally,

04:11when there is a bull market,

04:11a big bull market in gold,

04:13we have seen 30% of the correction.

04:16And the previous bull market,

04:18here,

04:19from the bottom to the peak,

04:21gold is nearly 5 to 6 times,

04:25and the bull market,

04:27we have seen 4 to the bottom.

04:30So, from a bull market perspective,

04:33there is a scope here,

04:35to improve the gold prices,

04:36and the fundamental factors,

04:38are also very supportive for gold.

04:40So,

04:41we are going to see,

04:42in some 3 to 6 months,

04:43gold is going to be on top.

04:45Because,

04:46July is almost finished,

04:48and the start of the festive season,

04:50which is,

04:51is going to be going to happen.

04:52After July,

04:53August,

04:54we are going to see,

04:55how the wedding season,

04:56and festive season starts,

04:58and the consumption of gold,

05:00basically,

05:00is going to increase.

05:01So,

05:02in recent years,

05:04that people have come on,

05:05but the consumption is always

05:07in Greece.

05:08the consumption of gold,

05:09in the future,

05:10is going to be more in the future.

05:11In the future,

05:12this is the right time,

05:13that Sona will be going to be

05:14in the future.

05:15If we are going to see,

05:16the prices are going to increase.

05:20Yes,

05:20we feel like,

05:21we can consolidate this over a month,

05:25because,

05:25for clarity to come,

05:26we will have a Fed meeting,

05:28where the Fed expectations are going.

05:32And,

05:33the Fed's expectations,

05:33and the Fed's expectations,

05:33the Fed's statement,

05:35and the Fed's Chairman,

05:35the Fed's Chairman,

05:36has also been a lot of

05:37hawkish statement,

05:38to some extent.

05:39So,

05:40we think,

05:41that,

05:41you know,

05:42is not able to get more interest rates,

05:45because,

05:46the US debt levels are more.

05:48In the US,

05:49the debt is 125% of GDP,

05:52$38 trillion of debt,

05:541% increase in interest rate,

05:56$380 billion of interest payments.

05:59So,

06:00now,

06:00we are already,

06:01$1 trillion of interest payments,

06:03on that,

06:04if it is up to 30%,

06:06then,

06:06there will be a huge impact,

06:08on the US economy.

06:10So,

06:11I think,

06:11there is no chance to increase interest rates,

06:14and the other is,

06:15that,

06:15we think,

06:15the growth will decelerate,

06:18and will come down.

06:19That's why,

06:20we will not do the rate hike.

06:22So,

06:23in all circumstances,

06:25next,

06:261-2 months,

06:27we will get clarity,

06:28and,

06:28we think,

06:29that the market will get clarity,

06:30that,

06:301 rate hike,

06:32or 0 rate hike,

06:33we will go ahead,

06:34and,

06:35that's why,

06:36the market expectations,

06:37which are misprice,

06:38I think,

06:39will be right,

06:40and the gold will get support.

06:41So,

06:41I think,

06:43consolidation,

06:43we can stay a little longer,

06:45with our downside risk,

06:48I think,

06:49and upside risk,

06:50in gold prices.

06:51So,

06:52if you want to allocate,

06:53or buy,

06:54then,

06:55this is a good level,

06:56where,

06:56already,

06:57we have seen,

06:59in international markets,

07:00so,

07:01this is a good time to allocate.

07:03Okay,

07:04sir,

07:04we are saying,

07:05downside risk,

07:06is a little less,

07:07but,

07:08what risks are,

07:09some factors,

07:10that,

07:11bear case,

07:12can go ahead,

07:13because,

07:14geopolitical situation,

07:15is very quickly,

07:16changing.

07:17We saw,

07:18Iran and US,

07:18which,

07:19this is the aim of

07:20which,

07:21the future,

07:22was also the aim of this,

07:22which was given to us,

07:24and the future,

07:28which,

07:29the future was the least,

07:31and the future,

07:31which,

07:32the future,

07:32that,

07:33in the other nations. And China is doing the same way or the other Asian countries,

07:39the central banks are doing the same way. But gold is also very focused on the focus.

07:47So, there are some downside risks now that you have to focus on?

07:51Yes, absolutely. In every market, there are some downside risks.

07:55But what is the probability that you should focus on?

07:59First, gold is falling because inflation has increased.

08:01After that, there was no other option for the central banks,

08:06but for the rate hike or for the hawkish posturing.

08:11Now, the reaction that the markets last time, when the reward started,

08:16was given in terms of crude prices.

08:18So, crude was about $120 to $1.

08:21Now, it's about $80 to $1, crude oil.

08:26So, we think that the market is not so much reacting.

08:29There is an assumption in the market that it will subside.

08:34It will not be long-drawn.

08:36If it is long-drawn, there will be a risk for the market.

08:40And like the mid-term election is coming in the US,

08:43Donald Trump should bring the oil prices, inflation,

08:48down to the bottom of the market.

08:50So, I think they will try in all base,

08:53that inflation will be low.

08:55And oil is a big determinant in the US market,

08:57because its inflation basket is a big part of oil prices.

09:02So, we think that in all circumstances,

09:04it will be 1-2 months to consolidate and the situation should come towards normalcy.

09:09And there will be gold in favour.

09:13So, we have talked about inflation.

09:15Sir, you have talked about inflation.

09:16So, one more time, we will go to Middle East tensions.

09:19Because crude is still on top of it.

09:22If we talk about $85 per barrel,

09:26we have seen prices of $80 to $85 per barrel.

09:30So, we have seen prices of $80 to $85 per barrel.

09:42So, what are the expectations of crude?

09:44So, what are the expectations of crude?

09:45Is it still going to increase?

09:46And then, what impact will its impact on the gold?

09:50As I said, crude reaction is not so aggressive.

09:55Like last time, when the Iran war started,

10:00crude oil is $20 per barrel.

10:02Now, it is $85 per barrel.

10:03So, it is also very low.

10:05And what is the relation?

10:07If crude increases, inflation is increasing.

10:10So, if inflation is increasing,

10:12then, no one has any interest in the central bank.

10:15But, we have to increase the rate high.

10:17So, we will not know that

10:18we will increase the rate high so that

10:20inflation can come into the control.

10:21So, if that happens,

10:23then, it is negative for gold.

10:25Because it is real interest rates.

10:27It is slightly higher.

10:29So, if the real interest rates are higher,

10:31which is interest rate minus inflation,

10:34then, it goes to the inverse of gold.

10:36So, if the real interest rates is higher,

10:38then gold is lower.

10:42So, opposite is going.

10:44So, that is the opposite.

10:44So, that is the reason for the gold is in the gap.

10:47So, I think, this is a little mispricing

10:49that can be possible for investors' opportunity.

10:52When the market grows up,

10:55it is increasing,

10:56we think that the rate is low on the rate high.

10:58And, that is why it is becoming an opportunity in the gold.

11:01If your view is 1-2 years ago, gold has been told that gold can go below 1 lakh lakhs.

11:10When the sun was a little bit more, there were many reports of bear cases.

11:16There are many reports that you can reach 2 lakhs to 2 lakhs.

11:21Like in the beginning of the story of StoneX report,

11:23he is saying that gold has been seen in a good scenario.

11:27But if we talk about your targets,

11:31if we talk about 1-2 lakhs in the range of gold,

11:36where is it going to be near about 3-6 months,

11:39targets for short-term and long-term?

11:42Yes, there are no targets,

11:45but our view is very positive and constructive.

11:482-3 things,

11:48because of real interest rates,

11:51central bank buying will continue.

11:53We are not talking about it.

11:55After 2008's JFC crisis,

11:57this was a big assumption,

12:01or a big observation,

12:03that central bank diversification of reserves and investment will continue.

12:08And we have seen that it will be excellent after Russia-Ukraine war.

12:12So that will be a big support.

12:14And we think that overall global macro factors,

12:19will be positive for gold.

12:21Because there are chances of a stackflationary scenario

12:22will be increased.

12:24And that will be post mid-term elections,

12:26post-next year.

12:27I think that until the economy is moving,

12:30that will be a narrative in the US markets.

12:32But after that,

12:33we think that somewhere,

12:35that narrative will be fizzled out in the numbers.

12:38So I think that a stackflationary scenario,

12:40where growth is low and inflation is sticky,

12:44that will be good in the environment.

12:47So I think that these three are real possibilities,

12:49and the probability is higher.

12:52So we think that gold prices,

12:54fundamentally,

12:55can be very good.

12:57If this is pan out.

13:00And when we talk about gold's outlook,

13:03the dollar index is so important.

13:06And also,

13:06the US core CPI data has also come.

13:08Do these two factors,

13:10which can affect gold's pricing?

13:13Yes,

13:14absolutely.

13:15Inflation,

13:16core CPI data has come.

13:18So,

13:19the headline inflation,

13:20was quite low as compared to expectations.

13:24So,

13:25going on,

13:26the gold was very high,

13:28immediately after that reading.

13:30It was said that,

13:33if inflation is low,

13:35or is low,

13:36then the central banks will not do so high,

13:38because they have a growth.

13:41So,

13:42but Kevin Walsh,

13:43immediately after that statement came,

13:44that you know,

13:45we will see that,

13:46you know,

13:48inflation is in control,

13:50or reading is good.

13:52But,

13:52we will ensure that inflation is low.

13:55So,

13:56that's why,

13:57I got to see a little reversal in gold.

13:59But,

14:00their relation is,

14:01that the central banks will react in the inflation print,

14:04and that's why,

14:05the real rates will go.

14:06So,

14:07this is a big factor.

14:07So,

14:08the dollar index,

14:09as you said,

14:10the dollar index is opposite gold normally,

14:13because gold is a monetary asset,

14:15and the dollar is depreciated,

14:17because their fiscal balance is not good.

14:19Debt is much higher,

14:20deficit is increasing.

14:21So,

14:22that's why,

14:22the dollar is very low over the long term.

14:25And,

14:25that's why,

14:26if the dollar is depreciated,

14:29all currencies are in a similar state.

14:31That's why,

14:32gold is depreciated,

14:33and that's why gold is good as compared to currencies.

14:37Okay,

14:38sir,

14:39another country is,

14:40which is,

14:40which is aggressively buying gold,

14:44generally,

14:45we have seen that,

14:46India and China are two countries,

14:48where,

14:48where they can buy gold,

14:49that they can buy gold,

14:50they can buy gold,

14:51and they can buy gold,

14:52and then they can buy gold.

14:53It's very,

14:56that China is selling gold.

14:59in gold futures trading is going to end from 24 July.

15:06In a way, FNO trading is going to put restrictions on FNO trading.

15:09What can the impact on gold prices?

15:14Yes, China is a big support for gold markets.

15:18We saw that after Russia-Ukraine war,

15:21the central bank's assets were freeze.

15:28We saw that all central banks need to control their assets,

15:33where they can take their decisions in control.

15:37If your assets freeze, they will not stay at work.

15:40So, we saw that central bank buying very quickly.

15:45For three years, there was a thousand tons of buying.

15:48Last year, there was a 860 tons of buying.

15:50So, we think that there will be support,

15:52and China will be one of the big buyers of gold.

15:56Speculation is also that China is buying more,

15:59disclosed income in terms of buying,

16:01because China also is produced in gold.

16:03and there is a lot of interest in gold.

16:04So, that the internal production is buying,

16:06it cannot be worked.

16:08Overall, China is buying because

16:10for now is the 1-10 % of their reserves in gold.

16:18It's only about 10% of their reserves in gold.

16:18The global average is 27%

16:20and when it is developed nations,

16:22they are about 70% of gold.

16:24So I think China's runway is much more and their relations are always good and never good with the US

16:33So I don't think they will take a risk, so they will increase their reserves in their gold

16:37Because if their assets in the US will freeze, it will be a big problem

16:43Globally it will freeze, so it can be a big problem for them

16:46So we think that Chinese Central Bank will buy gold

16:51And they will take a decision on their futures

16:56I think it was too curb speculation

16:58Gold prices were volatile

16:59And there was a lot of leverage in the market

17:03So sometimes they are taking these steps

17:07Although we have seen that the Chinese government

17:11Is encouraging their citizens to put money in gold

17:13Because the investments are in real estate

17:16And they are not liquid and the real estate market

17:19They are not doing good

17:19So I think they were encouraging that people put investments in gold

17:23And we have seen that buying behavior

17:27This move is not to discourage

17:31But there is a lot of speculation

17:32In the futures market they have done it

17:36Yes, but sir, China's buying and other Asian countries' gold buying

17:42Is the theory of de-dollarization acceptable?

17:46Because in many news reports, the de-dollarization term is used a lot of times

17:50Yes, the de-dollarization term is loosely used

17:55But at the same time, the fiscal balance is unsustainable

18:02If a country is investing in a hundred dollars

18:06If a country is investing in a hundred dollars

18:09And they are printing in a hundred dollars

18:11Then it is unsustainable

18:13And how they are building this gap

18:15By printing new money

18:17So they are increasing their deficit

18:18So they are going to get into debt

18:32In the US

18:32It is quite uncertain

18:34It is a me-first policy

18:36It is an isolated world policy

18:37So I think that there are people

18:41From the US

18:42So I think that a de-dollarization

18:44Or moving away from the dollar

18:46Which is the trend

18:46We think that it will be going

18:49Given especially the economic reason

18:51That their fiscal balance is not good

18:55And deteriorating

18:57Their projections

18:58For the budget office

18:59For the next 10 years

19:01For the next 10 years

19:02For the next 10 years

19:03Their deficits will be going

19:05Today it is a good economy

19:07But it is still 6% of GDP

19:09Deficits are running

19:10India, when it is 4-4%

19:13So you know

19:14It is a big noise

19:15That it is not good

19:18In the economy

19:18In the good times

19:20It is still 6% of GDP

19:21It is running its deficit

19:23So it is unsustainable

19:25That is why

19:26People are going far from dollars

19:29To the next 10 years

19:31To the next 10 years

19:34That it is going to be

19:34A few investors

19:39To the next 10 years

19:41And then

19:42To the next 10 years

19:45So

19:46In the sense of gold

19:50Basically

19:51Allocation

19:52We have seen that in many investor portfolios, gold is under-allocated, so if you have under-allocated positions today,

20:01we should have 15% allocation, because hard numbers tell us that 15% is optimal allocation for gold,

20:09so if you have not 15% allocation, this is a good time for your allocation, so depends on what

20:17your allocation is,

20:22you can increase your allocation in gold, and gold ETF and mutual funds are a good way,

20:29a price-efficient, hassle-free, convenient way for your allocation to increase your allocation.

20:35Okay sir, so mutual fund, ETFs, or India, how can we invest in gold?

20:44So I think gold ETF and gold mutual fund are one thing, gold mutual fund is gold ETF,

20:49and gold ETF is physical gold, so if you have no choice, gold ETF or gold mutual fund,

20:56both of you are good, both will give you similar returns, and a very price-efficient form,

21:02you have the dealings on the retail level, gold ETF or gold mutual funds,

21:09which if you go to the market in physical buy, then you have to give a lot of premium,

21:14and you have to give a small amount of denomination to buy, you have to give a lot of premium,

21:17plus the risk of purity, and the risk of storage,

21:21and the risk of both fund houses take care, that gold is pure,

21:25and you have to keep gold in a safe place,

21:30and you have to be insured, so overall I think gold ETF and gold mutual fund,

21:34will be a good investment for investors, and the allocation to increase.

21:38Thank you so much, Chirag.

21:40Today we will see you for joining us.

21:41In the future, we will see you in the future.

21:45We will see you in the future.

21:55Thank you so much.

21:56Thank you so much.

21:57Thank you so much.

21:58Thank you so much.

Gold में आना वाला है बड़ा Bull Run, Bullion Expert का बड़ा अनुमान | अभी खरीदें या इंतजार करें?

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