00:05Hello and Welcome, Good Returns, I am with you with the item of Javedie.
00:09The Bazaar is volatile, but in commodity markets there is a lot of different things.
00:15First, the appeal of Pradhan Munthir Nareen Modi that you don't buy one year,
00:19if you don't buy one year, if you don't buy one year, you don't buy one year.
00:25Because when you buy physical gold, you don't buy one year, if you don't buy one year, you can avoid
00:31it.
00:32Because the import bill is increasing.
00:34After that, the import duty is increasing.
00:38The import duty is increasing, but the gold is increasing.
00:43The import duty was increasing before 6% or 15%.
00:51The import duty is increasing in 9%.
00:54Now, what is going on in the gold market?
00:57And especially if you don't buy one year,
01:01then consumers, dwellers,
01:04So, what is going on in the gold market?
01:17So, what should we do in the gold market?
01:19What should we do in the gold market?
01:34One is volatile.
01:36The increase in the prices of recent prices is also in the 1,600,000, 1,600,000, 1,600
01:40,000,003,000.
01:42The range bound momentum has been given during the days.
01:45When the imports duty came up,
01:47After they said that you will buy one year,
01:51But they've been convinced that they bought the gold for physical gold
01:55And the imports duty was increased.
01:56In these 4 days, when these decisions started, what was the difference in a commodity market?
02:03Yes, we have seen that in the past 2-3 days there was a lot of volatility, particularly in the
02:11domestic market.
02:13Internationally, prices are very stable.
02:16They are trading at $100 in the range last week.
02:19We have seen that the biggest change in the market is that the premiums and discounts were very high.
02:30The gold was trading at $10 to $15.
02:35Now, when you look at the premiums and discounts in the market, it is minus $150.
02:40So, in the spot market, the wholesale market is trading at minus $150 because the demand is very low.
02:50Suddenly, there was a big spike in the market because of the duty hike.
02:54There is no price in the market.
02:57Whether it is a jeweler or a retailer, it is trading at the discount.
03:02And I think, in 2-3 days, at least for this week, this will remain negative momentum.
03:09There will be a little sentiment that will remain negative.
03:11If there is a good momentum in the international prices, this discount will be reduced and gradually normalised.
03:20We can see that the price is still for $150 to $1 million for the price of $150 to $120.
03:24Low price is not still in the market.
03:25So, for this means, we have to make the price of $600, which is also in order to get a
03:33price of $100, which we have from $350.
03:34Also, the price of $150, which is really worth $98.
03:39The price of $200, which is only $25, which we have not purchased.
03:41It's another $75.
03:41The price of $250 in the market is in the market.
03:41It's probably $65 in price.
03:41The price of $50 of $7.
03:41That if we have to buy a price of $150 in $500, the price we have to sell.
03:46Now, we are looking at $150 to $100, the price that $150 in each other than $150
03:51So if India, as this stage, falls back from buying soda,
03:57then can we see the impact of soda in the global market?
04:01We will see prices down below?
04:04I think the way the Honourable Prime Minister is appealed
04:09is that if we see it,
04:12we will see that in the short term,
04:16there will be 10-15% impact.
04:21And the duty hike,
04:24there will also be an impact.
04:26How much will it be?
04:27If we look at the numbers of WGC,
04:29they have estimated that
04:31when the import duty is 1%
04:33then our consumption,
04:35the demand is less than 6-7 tons.
04:38So considering that the import duty is 9%
04:42yesterday,
04:44and as you can see,
04:46the demand is less than 55-60 tons.
04:49So if our total imports,
04:52that is roughly around 700 tons to 800 tons,
04:55if the demand is less than 50-60 tons,
04:58so it is just one-tenth of the demand.
05:01So I don't think there will be a lot of impact.
05:04Yes,
05:04we can say that
05:06we can say that
05:06the demand is less than 10%
05:07this year,
05:08because of the duty hike
05:09and PM's appeal.
05:11But,
05:12I think that
05:13still,
05:14now,
05:14the consumption of gold
05:18will still increase.
05:19I don't think that
05:20the top two consumers
05:23in India and China,
05:24which are 50%
05:26constitute
05:27in India,
05:29India will still be the second-largest consumer.
05:33There is a little bit of demand
05:34but I don't see much impact on the demand side.
05:38Okay.
05:40Let's talk about technical terms.
05:42What are short-term and long-term targets?
05:45If we look at technical targets,
05:49we will focus on international prices
05:52because domestic parity has been changed.
05:56Because of duty high
05:57and rupee depreciation
05:59also,
06:00rupee which is around 96.
06:02So,
06:03if I say that
06:04$4,900 is a very important resistance level.
06:08The prices sustain
06:10then it can move up to 5,200
06:13or in fact,
06:145,500 to.
06:15So,
06:15roughly,
06:16if we look at these levels in Indian prices,
06:18I think
06:18$1,70,000
06:20if we look at gold
06:21one more time,
06:22then we will see new highs
06:24and it can even come to 2,000,000 levels.
06:27Okay.
06:28So,
06:28short-term is volatile
06:30but if we look at long-term
06:32if we look at long-term
06:33then
06:33we will be able to add
06:34in portfolios
06:36and
06:37we will not buy consumption
06:38as well.
06:39the Prime Minister says,
06:40don't buy it.
06:40But,
06:41we are looking at near-term
06:43what can we do?
06:45Yes.
06:46Our imports
06:47impact
06:48because of
06:49gold imports.
06:50Because
06:50gold
06:51almost
06:5110%
06:52in our current account
06:54constitute
06:55and
06:56the deficit
06:57at gold
06:58is increasing.
06:59So,
07:00this will be
07:01a short-term
07:16phenomenon
07:16at least
07:17for
07:17one,
07:18two months
07:18until
07:19this is a
07:20front-burner
07:21news.
07:22Gradually,
07:23people will move
07:24and move
07:24and move
07:24when they need
07:25they will buy.
07:27And
07:27now,
07:27they are moving
07:28on to digital
07:28alternatives
07:31where they have
07:32to get a
07:34rally
07:35from gold
07:35to get
07:36investment.
07:38So,
07:39digital alternatives
07:39where they invest
07:40and
07:41import
07:41build
07:41people are moving
07:44towards that direction.
07:45But,
07:46the important
07:47import duty
07:47is
07:49because
07:49of the
07:50gems
07:50and
07:50jewelry
07:51sector
07:51is also a big hit.
07:53One,
07:54many people
07:56believe
07:57because
07:58we saw
07:59that
07:59the stocks
08:00were broken
08:00from the
08:02companies.
08:03So,
08:05there was fear
08:06in this sector
08:07and the companies
08:09after that
08:09import duty
08:11and the
08:12jewelry
08:12sector
08:13has increased.
08:14How will
08:14this crisis
08:15manage
08:16this crisis?
08:16I think
08:17gems and
08:18jewelry
08:18are going
08:19to a tough
08:19times now.
08:21They have
08:23given
08:25that
08:28PMO office
08:29and
08:29they want
08:31to discuss
08:32what is going
08:33to happen.
08:34The duty
08:35is high
08:35so
08:36their
08:36book value
08:37has increased
08:409%.
08:41That
08:44is
08:49good
08:50for
08:50them.
08:50That
08:51I think
08:51gradually
08:52people
08:53are
08:53thinking
08:54that
08:55gold
08:56imports
08:56are
08:56going
08:57the
08:57price
08:58of
09:01of
09:03and
09:14the
09:15can
09:15afford to buy
09:16it.
09:17In fact,
09:19Gems and
09:20Jewelry
09:20has
09:20appeal to
09:21PMO
09:22to
09:22the
09:22gold
09:23monetization
09:24schemes.
09:25the
09:26gold
09:26revamped.
09:29In fact,
09:30recycled gold
09:31in India
09:32has
09:33increased
09:34because
09:34Indians hold
09:35almost
09:3630,000 tons
09:37of gold.
09:38If
09:401%
09:41is recycled
09:42every year,
09:43300 tons
09:44will come
09:44to our
09:44system.
09:47People
09:48are still doing
09:48that.
09:49new
09:50gold
09:50will
09:50need
09:51more
09:51new
09:52gold
09:53that
09:53is
09:55good
09:56for
09:56us.
09:56import
09:57has
09:57good
09:58impact.
10:00Our
10:00import
10:01will
10:01work.
10:02And
10:03the
10:04retail
10:04investors
10:05who
10:05are
10:06a better
10:10return
10:10for
10:11months,
10:11is
10:12the
10:13strategy
10:13that
10:14is
10:14going
10:16to
10:18continue
10:18to
10:19continue
10:19to
10:19continue
10:19to
10:20continue
10:22that.
10:24I
10:25think
10:25they should
10:37continue
10:37that.
10:37I
10:38always
10:38advise
10:38you should
10:39always
10:40put 15-20%
10:41of your portfolio
10:42in gold
10:43and silver.
10:45So,
10:45you can continue
10:46that.
10:47SIP
10:48through
10:48every month
10:49you will invest
10:49a little bit.
10:50So,
10:51you will not
10:52have a problem
10:53and your returns
10:55will be good.
10:56I still think
10:57gold prices
10:58can double
11:00in the next
11:01three years.
11:02The market
11:03has been
11:04growing
11:04and
11:04long-term
11:07trend
11:07is
11:08good.
11:08Stay
11:09in
11:09small amounts
11:11through
11:12digital
11:12alternatives
11:13where
11:13our
11:14import
11:15will not impact.
11:17So,
11:18now
11:18is
11:18good.
11:20a little
11:21think
11:21that
11:22SIP
11:23is
11:23useful
11:24and
11:25gold
11:25is
11:26too
11:26much.
11:28Thank you
11:30so much
11:30today
11:30for joining us.
11:32Thank you so much.
11:36Absolutely.
11:37Thank you so much.
11:39You
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