00:00Invesment, we have seen Sona in recent years that we have seen people's radar
00:04but the consumption is always happening in bharat.
00:07Gold is more than in this season.
00:10So, this is the right time for Sona to buy in the next 3-6 months.
00:14If we look at the price, we hope the price is more than growing.
00:19Yes, we think that we can consolidate here in a month.
00:24For clarity, we will start a Fed meeting
00:27where the expectations of the Fed market are going.
00:31And now, Kevin Walsh's statement is the Fed Chair.
00:34He is also a hawkish statement to some extent.
00:38So, we think that we can't take the economy in two ways.
00:44Because the US debt levels are much more.
00:47In the US, the debt is 125% of GDP.
00:51$38 trillion of debt.
00:521% increase in interest rate is increased by $380 billion of interest payments.
00:58So, we were already $1 trillion of interest payments.
01:02If it increases by 30% then there will be a huge impact on the US economy.
01:09So, I think that there is no chance to increase interest rates.
01:13And the other thing is that we think that growth will decelerate and will come down.
01:17That's why we won't do the rate hike.
01:21So, in all circumstances, next 1-2 months, we will get clarity.
01:26And we think that the market will get clarity, that we will get one rate hike or zero rate hike.
01:34And that's why the market expectations, which are misprice now, I think that will be right and will get the
01:39support of gold.
01:40So, I think that consolidation can remain a little longer.
01:44With our downside risk, I think that downside risk is becoming less.
01:48And upside risk is becoming more in gold prices.
01:50So, if you want to do allocation or buy a zone,
01:54then this is a good level.
01:55Where we have already seen 30% in international markets,
01:59So, this is a good time to allocate.
02:02Okay. Sir, we are saying that downside risk is a little bit less.
02:06But what are the risks?
02:08There are some factors that bear case can go towards gold.
02:13Because geopolitical situations are changing very quickly.
02:16We saw that Iran and US had a ceasefire in the US.
02:19Then, once again, there was an increase in the sun and the sun.
02:22There are some factors that bear in the sun, and the bottom of the sun,
02:27And the other countries, which are the same,
02:29Which is the same.
02:31Which is the same.
02:31There are trade deals in the other nations.
02:33And China, which is the same.
02:36And the other countries, which are the same.
02:38Other countries, which are the same.
02:40Which are the same.
02:41But there are also the goals that are very focus.
02:45So, there are some downside risks now.
02:47Are there too many people attention to those on the field?
02:50Yes, absolutely. In every market, there are some downside risks. But what is the probability
02:55that you should keep in mind. First, gold was dropped because inflation was increased.
03:01And then, central banks didn't have any other options, but above the rate hike or hawkish
03:07posturing. Now, look, the reaction that markets last time, when the reward started
03:14in terms of crude prices. Crude was about 120 dollars. Now, look, it's about 80 dollars
03:22doing crude oil. So, we think that the market is not reacting so much.
03:28There is an assumption in the market that it will be subside, it will not be long drawn.
03:35If it's long drawn, there will be a risk for the market. And like the midterm election
03:40coming in the US. Donald Trump should bring the oil prices and inflation
03:47to the bottom of the market. So, I think they will try in all ways that inflation
03:52will keep it down. And oil is a big determinant in the US market. Because their inflation
03:58basket is a big part of oil prices. So, we think that in all circumstances,
04:03these 1-2 months, the situation should come towards normalcy. And there, I think,
04:10again, gold will come in favour.
04:12Okay. Sir, you talked about inflation. So, one more time, we go to middle east
04:17tensions. Because crude is still up again. If we talk about 85 dollars per barrel,
04:24if we talk about recent prices, if we talk about 80 to 85 dollars per trade,
04:29we have seen the price of 80 to 85 dollars per trade.
04:29We have seen the price of middle east tension.
04:31Now, crude is still up to what kind of impact the gold?
04:35This is a big question.
04:36Because before this, crude has increased, we have seen it at 1.500 level.
04:41So, what are the expectations?
04:43Is crude still up to see it?
04:45And then, what impact on gold?
04:49Like I said, crude's reaction is not so aggressive.
04:54Like last time, when the Iran war started, crude oil is 120 dollars per
05:00reached. Now, it is 85 pay. So, it is also quite low.
05:04And what is the relation?
05:06If crude is increasing, it means that inflation is increasing.
05:09If inflation is increasing, then the central bank has no more.
05:13But the rate hike is increasing.
05:15So, let us know that we will increase the rate higher,
05:19so that inflation is increasing.
05:20So, if it happens, then it is negative for gold,
05:24because the real interest rates are slightly higher.
05:28So, if the real interest rates are higher,
05:30the interest rate is minus inflation,
05:33then it is inverse of gold.
05:35So, if the real interest rates is higher, then gold will be lower.
05:38If the real interest rates is higher, then gold will be lower.
05:41So, it is opposite.
05:42So, I think this is a little mispricing.
05:48So, I think this is a little mispricing,
05:49where investors can get the opportunity for the opportunity.
05:51When the market is increasing,
05:55we think that the rate hike will be lower.
05:57So, I think this is a little mispricing.
06:12It is a little mispricing.
06:13I think we will see a lot of reports.
06:13There are many reports.
06:15Many reports are saying that
06:18they are above 2 million percent.
06:20Even with the 1,000,000!!!!
06:20Like this, I talked about the last few years.
06:23I think it will be very good.
06:25It will appear in store that gold.
06:26But if we are talking about
06:28what will the targets have our we've got?
06:31It will appear in the 2,000,000,000,000,000 and,000
06:35,000,000 to 20,000,000.
06:41Yes, there are no targets, but our view is very positive and constructive.
06:47Two-three things, one, the real interest rates will come down here,
06:50central bank buying will continue, we are not talking about it,
06:54after the 2008 GFC crisis, this was a big assumption or observation,
07:02that central bank diversification of reserves and investment will continue in gold,
07:07and we have seen that it will accelerate a lot after Russia-Ukraine war.
07:11So, that will be a big support, and we think that overall global macro factors will be positive for gold,
07:19because there are chances of a stack-flationary scenario that will increase,
07:22and that will be post mid-term elections, post next year.
07:26I think that until the economy is going on, that will be a narrative in the U.S. markets,
07:31but after that, we think that some of the narrative will be fizzled out in the numbers.
07:37So, I think that a stack-flationary scenario, where growth is low and inflation is sticky,
07:43that will be good in the environment.
07:46So, I think that these three are real possibilities, and the probability is higher.
07:50So, when we talk about gold prices, we think that gold prices will be very good in the future,
07:56if it will pan out.
07:58And, Sir, when we talk about gold's outlook,
08:02the dollar index is very important, and also the US core CPI data has come,
08:07So, these are the two factors that can affect gold prices?
08:12Yes, absolutely.
08:14Inflation, as the core CPI data has come,
08:17so that the headline inflation was very low as compared to the expectations.
08:22Yes.
08:22So, when we talk about gold's outlook, immediately after that reading,
08:29it was said that if inflation is low or is low,
08:35the central banks will not do that high because they have growth.
08:40So, after Kevin Walsh's statement,
08:43that we will see that inflation is in control,
08:48the reading is good,
08:50but we will ensure that inflation is low.
08:54So, that's why I got to see a reversal in gold again,
08:58but their relation is that how will the central banks react to that inflation print,
09:03and that's why they will go to real rates.
09:05So, this is a big factor.
09:07The dollar index, like you have said,
09:09the dollar index is the opposite of gold normally,
09:11because gold is a monetary asset,
09:14the dollar is depreciated,
09:15because their fiscal balance is not good.
09:18Debt is higher, deficit is higher.
09:20So, that's why the dollar is low in long-term,
09:24and that's why, if the dollar is depreciated,
09:28all currencies are in a similar state,
09:30that's why gold is depreciated,
09:32and that's why gold is good as compared to currencies.
09:36Okay.
09:37Sir, one other country is,
09:39which is very aggressively buying,
09:43generally,
09:44we have seen that India and China are two countries,
09:47where the dollar is most expensive,
09:49and the dollar is most expensive,
09:50and the dollar is more expensive,
09:51and the dollar is more expensive.
09:52China is very fast,
09:54and the other big decision,
09:55which China has done,
09:57basically,
09:58the gold futures trade,
10:01is going to close to 24 July.
10:05I mean,
10:05the F&O trading is going to put restrictions on F&O trading.
10:09What can the impact on gold prices?
10:13Yes.
10:14China has a great support for gold markets.
10:16And as we saw in Russia-Ukraine war,
10:20that overnight,
10:22Central Bank's assets were freeze,
10:24overnight,
10:25Russian assets were freeze.
10:26And as we saw,
10:28all central banks need to control their assets,
10:31where they can make decisions in control.
10:36If you have assets freeze,
10:37then they will not be working.
10:39So,
10:40we have seen that Central Bank buying,
10:42we have seen that very quickly,
10:443 years,
10:451000 tons of buying,
10:47last year,
10:48860 tons of buying.
10:49So,
10:50we think that this will be supported,
10:51and China will be one of the big buyers of gold.
10:55The speculation is that China is buying more,
10:58and less disclosing in terms of buying,
11:00because China has also been produced in gold,
11:02and how much the internal production is buying,
11:05we cannot know.
11:07So,
11:08overall,
11:08China is buying,
11:09because their forex reserves,
11:12which are in gold,
11:13are just 10% of their reserves in gold.
11:16The global average is 27%,
11:19and when there are developed nations,
11:21they are about 70-80% in gold.
11:24So,
11:24I think China's runway is quite a lot,
11:27and their relations,
11:30sometimes are not good with the US,
11:32so I don't think they will take a risk,
11:34so they will increase their reserves in gold,
11:37because if their assets,
11:38which are in the US,
11:39will freeze,
11:40then it will be a big problem,
11:42or globally,
11:43will freeze,
11:44so it can be a big problem for them.
11:46Okay.
11:47So,
11:48we see that the Chinese Central Bank,
11:49will buy gold,
11:50and they will be doing it,
11:51and they will take a decision on their futures,
11:55I think it was to curb speculation.
11:57Gold prices were volatile,
11:58and there was a lot of leverage,
12:01in the market.
12:03So,
12:03sometimes,
12:03they are taking these steps,
12:06taking these steps,
12:07although we have seen,
12:08that the Chinese government,
12:10is encouraging their citizens,
12:11to put money in their citizens,
12:12to put money in gold.
12:13Because,
12:13most of the investments,
12:14were in real estate,
12:16and they were liquid,
12:17and the real estate market,
12:18were not good.
12:19So,
12:19I think they were encouraging,
12:20that people,
12:21to put investments in gold,
12:23and put money in gold,
12:24and they have seen,
12:25a lot of buying behavior,
12:26and they have seen,
12:27this move,
12:28it's not to discourage,
12:30but it's a lot of speculation,
12:31and they have done it,
12:32in the futures market,
12:33and they have done it,
12:34in the futures market,
12:35and they have done it.
12:35So,
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