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Blake Butera said on Friday sometimes he wonders if the process they take with their bullpen decisions is the correct way of doing things. How should the Nationals handle things going forward?
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00:00Anyway, we played that low light for a reason, not just for me to rant and rave.
00:05But, and Darius has got this audio.
00:08I'm doing post, right?
00:09And, you know, it's another meltdown.
00:11And Charlie and Dave are, you know, speaking like human beings that have seen this too many times.
00:15And we're going back and forth about it.
00:17And that one was a decision where they went with the, here is what your spreadsheet.
00:24Here's what the data has to say.
00:27And in that game, okay, to go back to Friday night, I know it seems like a million meltdowns ago,
00:32and it kind of is.
00:34But Clayton Beater, who would go on to blow the save the following night.
00:39Clayton Beater came out of the bullpen in the eighth inning to get one out and was pretty electric.
00:46It looked real good coming out of his hand.
00:48Had a punch out, right?
00:49And it was one of those, when the ball's flying out of his hand like that, that's the good Clayton
00:54Beater.
00:55Yes.
00:55That's the guy that you go, there's some swing and miss there.
00:58There's that evil predator.
01:00There's that nasty son of a gun that I would not want to face.
01:03Every once in a while, you might throw one off the mascot.
01:06But for the most part, it's that fastball slider combo where it's this easy gas.
01:10And the fastball jumps and the slider snaps.
01:14And you go, that guy could get out.
01:16And again, I know what happened the next night.
01:18But bear with me.
01:18That night, Friday, he was nasty.
01:22In the night's inning, they're going now playing matchups because there's a lefty, a switch hitter, and another lefty coming
01:29up.
01:30This is what Blake Butera said postgame.
01:32It was a great series of questions.
01:34They were focused on this.
01:35I understand in a game like that, you're not going to lament some of the, you know, C.J. Abrams
01:40slipping on a base.
01:41Or you're not going to talk about how they had runners on second and third with one out and two
01:45guys struck out.
01:46Yep.
01:46It's, you're playing a team like the Yankees or any team, really.
01:49You can't afford to not get runs home.
01:51The Nats, by and large, this year, offensively have done a great job of those things.
01:55They've played the unsexy little ball.
01:57You know, it's a sack fly here.
01:59It's the chopper ground ball there to get a run home.
02:01They didn't do that a couple times.
02:02Comes back to bite them against the Yanks.
02:03Whatever.
02:04But the questions, understandably, were about another blown late lead.
02:09So, do you have the question also?
02:10So, listen to the questions here from Spencer Nussbaum and Blake Butera's answer.
02:15Does the result tonight shake your belief in the process at all in terms of leaning heavily on kind of
02:22platoon splits in particular?
02:23Yeah, 100%.
02:24I mean, I'm sitting here wondering if that's the right thing to do or not.
02:29Whenever you lose and get beat that way, you definitely question what we're doing.
02:37Sitting here talking with our group after the game tonight.
02:40Like, we all believe the process was right and the outcome was not.
02:44Now, Blake Butera's not choking up there.
02:46I just want everyone to know, he lost his voice.
02:48He was kind of losing his voice during the day when he was on with us.
02:52So emotional after one loss.
02:54He's a grown-up.
02:55He's dealt with losses.
02:56He'll deal with more.
02:57He'll be fine.
02:57But he had lost his voice there.
02:59But the key is what he said.
03:01Yes.
03:04You texted me right away.
03:06And everybody listening to that kind of went, whoa.
03:09Because here's, let's pull back the curtain here a little bit, okay?
03:15This sounds like I'm taking credit away from Blake Butera.
03:17I am not.
03:18He is an integral part of this process.
03:21But what they're doing, for the most part, and that's not what Noah's actually said.
03:25Okay, at 2.15 p.m. we meet here.
03:27At 2.45 we do this.
03:29But the process goes like this.
03:31Ani Kolambi, Blake Butera, pitching coaches, the data folks, all the smart people that they've got
03:37that have churned out this, are part of what churned out this unbelievable offense
03:42where you put guys in positions to succeed and succeed they have
03:46is doing the same thing with pitching.
03:48In a certain pocket, they'll refer to that as a pocket, where you look at the other team's lineup.
03:53For example, you look at the Yankees' lineup that day where they go, okay,
03:57we've got Bellinger left-handed, Dominguez worse from the right side as a switch hitter,
04:01Jazz Chisholm, that 6-7-8, or in this case 5-6-7,
04:06in the lineup.
04:07If we've got a pocket late in the game, we are going to use the left-handed pitcher here,
04:13and this is how we plan to deploy them.
04:15Based on not just left on left, but we don't think, I'm making this up,
04:18we don't think Chisholm will handle sweepers that well.
04:21We don't believe that Bellinger will handle an elevated fastball that well.
04:25We don't believe this, this, this, this, and this, and these are our guys with those attributes,
04:28so we will go with them in those spots.
04:33That's the philosophy.
04:35When you're doing this on a shoestring budget, and that's what they're doing,
04:38make no mistake about it, whether that's their fault or, I don't think it's their fault,
04:42whether it's going to be that way forever or not, it's that way right now.
04:45Yes.
04:46When you're on the shoestring budget, this is how you have to compete.
04:50Billy Bean, a.k.a. Brad Pitt's character, Billy Bean, in Moneyball, said this.
04:54We are card counters.
04:56That's what we're doing.
04:57Even when you count cards, you can still lose the hand in Vegas or wherever you get your gambling.
05:04You play a process in over 162 games when you do, here's our run scored, here's our runs allowed,
05:11this is what our likely record outcome is.
05:12That's why you look at baseball reference, and you'll find Pythagorean wins and losses.
05:16So a team that's been outscored can have a winning record, losing record, etc.
05:19That reflects kind of luck.
05:20A big process sport like this one, you get more desirable outcomes more often,
05:24and that's what you're doing, you're counting the cards.
05:28The probing questions are up there.
05:30I don't think this is just a, and I don't want to take you in here in a second, Tobes,
05:33I don't think that was just a frustration answer.
05:35Because you know Buterra's frustrated.
05:37They all are.
05:38They're human beings who have witnessed the same thing fans have.
05:41They're living it, we're paying for it.
05:44For him to say, I'm questioning the process, and then the next night, they didn't do that process.
05:50And again, they lost, and it was a blown save, and it was a Clayton Beter situation.
05:56But at least they went a different route.
05:58What did you make of that?
06:00I thought it was shocking, because this is an organization right now that is very analytically driven,
06:06and whenever you have an analytically driven organization, they're going to stick to their process.
06:12Maybe even in spite of the results, regardless of what they're telling them.
06:16They're going to find what their process is, what they believe in, and they're going to stick to it.
06:21The example I always come back to, Danny, is the 2020 World Series.
06:26It's, I think, the most big example of an analytics organization making a move that maybe lacked a little bit
06:32of feel.
06:32Go back to the World Series when Blake Snell is dealing.
06:35I can't remember the exact situation, but Kevin Cash decides to take him out of the ballgame,
06:39because a third time through the order, or going in, whatever it was.
06:45And after that, the Dodgers came back and won.
06:47And it was one of those, you go back and like, man, I know you generally like to stick to
06:52this,
06:52but should you maybe mix in a little bit of feel?
06:55But that's an organization that is going to stick to their process, regardless of what the results are showing you.
07:00Now, for Blake Butera to come out and say, yeah, maybe we need to change up the process a little
07:04bit,
07:06just shocked me a little bit, because it's half a season's worth.
07:09It's not like they've done this for four years, and then it was like, dude, you've been burnt 120 times.
07:14You know, they've been burnt quite a bit in this first half, but I was shocked to hear that,
07:18and to see just the abrupt switch in the game on Saturday, where it was very obvious that they went
07:25the other way
07:26and said, all right, let's try the other approach.
07:28Let's use our A-arms.
07:30Let's use our best bullpen pieces and see if that works.
07:33Now, like you said, that coincidentally didn't work on Saturday.
07:36They tried a different approach on Sunday.
07:38That one didn't work either, so maybe they were doomed from the start against this Yankees team
07:42for whatever reason.
07:43But I just thought that was very, very interesting.
07:45And I think part of it, too, is the element that gets left out when you go through a process
07:53of very analytically driven organizations is sometimes the mentality and stuff that can't
07:58be measured by numbers.
08:00And also in that postgame interview, he acknowledged the ninth inning is a different animal.
08:05As much as you want to act like it's just MLB the show and, hey, let me go call in
08:10Joe Blow
08:10off the street here to go close the ninth inning or whatever it is.
08:14Because pitching high leverage spots is different than pitching a random fifth inning.
08:20Pitching a random seventh inning.
08:21Trying to get the final three outs against Cody Bellinger, against Jazz Chisholm, against
08:26those guys, against the New York Yankees, there's a little extra there.
08:30And for whatever reason, the Nationals this season have not been able to get those outs
08:35late in games.
08:36Danny, you look at this Nationals team and their ERA has not been good this season.
08:41But if you look throughout the splits throughout the season, first inning a .343 ERA, .473 in
08:48the second, .371 in the third, a .4 ERA in the fourth, a little higher in the fifth, just
08:53under six, about five and a half.
08:55It's a .38 and a .39 in the seventh.
08:58How about the eighth inning is a .649?
09:00A ninth inning is a .678.
09:03Extras is .724.
09:04So it's so obvious that for whatever reason, there is a block there in the eighth and ninth
09:11inning and extra innings that their relievers just can't get over.
09:15And I think it's twofold that's tough here, Danny, where you want someone to be experienced,
09:21but also they don't have a designated closer.
09:24No.
09:25So everyone's gotten a shot.
09:26But in turn, because everybody's gotten a shot, Clayton Beater hasn't grown up the
09:30callous of understanding how to overcome, oh, I blew the lead today.
09:34Dang it.
09:34I got to go back out there tomorrow.
09:35He hasn't done that.
09:36He's not used to taking the ball in the ninth inning every single time.
09:40Neither is Orlando Ribalta.
09:42Everybody's gotten a shot.
09:43But in turn, I wouldn't say that anybody in the Nationals bullpen is seasoned as a late
09:48inning reliever.
09:49And so it's a give and take there.
09:51It was just, this series makes you reevaluate a lot of things.
09:54And you don't like to overreact to three games in 162-game season.
09:57But I do think this kind of showed that, all right, maybe there are some little tweaks
10:01that you need to make against really good ball clubs.
10:03And it's been the thing.
10:04I mean, so every year, what happens is closers that we, you know, that were part of the
10:09furniture that everybody knows fail and get deposed.
10:13And guys that haven't really been ninth inning guys before emerge and take those roles.
10:19So go to guys like, I know Trevor McGill's doing it for a little while now, but there was
10:23a time he was not the closer, now he is.
10:25Cade Smith in Cleveland, who leads the Major League in saves, hasn't been a closer for
10:28that long.
10:29Brian Baker, you mentioned Tampa Bay, has emerged into a dominant ninth inning arm.
10:32Riley O'Brien in St. Louis.
10:35You can go up and down the list.
10:36Paul Seewald was kind of a jobbing fifth and a half starter bullpen guy, is now one of
10:40the more dependable closers in the sports.
10:42Jacob Latz in Texas.
10:44Pete Fairbanks in Miami emerged for Tampa years ago as a closer out of kind of the primordial
10:49soup of the bullpen.
10:50The point is, guys that were the dominant closers a couple years ago, I think Devin
10:55Williams is now kind of fine, you know, and maybe ultimately going to be replaced.
11:00Or Santheon Dominguez, who was a great closer, is not anymore.
11:03Point is, it's a fickle spot and it's hard to maintain it.
11:05That's why guys like Mariano Rivera or go back to Lee Smith or Dennis Hackersley, these
11:09dudes that were consistently so great.
11:11It's an underrated thing that you were dominant for that long.
11:14For the most part, it's, you get a year and a half, two years.
11:18It's not a lifelong gig, right?
11:21Guys fall out of favor, whatever happens.
11:24Nobody has emerged here in Washington.
11:27So they went for a thing where they go, let's see what happens.
11:30Let's find a couple of guys that, you know, maybe we don't have, we only have a couple
11:33power arms back there and nobody's taken the gig.
11:35So we're going to go, it's not even committee, it's, you get a shot now.
11:41You're fresh off the waiver wire, you get a chance because we'll play the matchups and
11:44try to do it that way.
11:45It's the same philosophy, by the way, as what they've done on offense.
11:49Remember, Curtis Meade wasn't a starter.
11:51He was a part-time player in the months of March and April.
11:55He started less than half the games.
11:56He's now, my God, can you imagine the lineup without him?
11:59Of course not.
11:59He emerged, took the gig.
12:01And we don't care that Brady House is hitting 340 down to AAA.
12:04I hit for the cycle the other night during the rain delay while you and I were hanging
12:07out at the ballpark.
12:09No one misses him.
12:10No one cares.
12:11Because the third baseman is crushing the ball and is the middle of the order bat for
12:15them.
12:16They find these places where they go, God, it drives me crazy that Luis Garcia is sitting
12:21down, but we believe in this left-right thing, we're going to keep giving this guy that's
12:25hitting, you know, a second baseman's weight, Andres Chaparro, another chance because we
12:30like his bat speed.
12:31They're going to keep doing that because it's a process thing.
12:33And as frustrating as it is at times, and there's no feel for it, this is how we got
12:38the best offense in the sport.
12:39They're doing that there.
12:40And when they apply that to the pitching staff, nothing has worked.
12:44So, to me, this is a, we just don't have the horses thing.
12:49Completely agree.
12:50This is not a philosophical problem.
12:53So, I guess the question here, Toby, is, if you guys out there in Radio Land, Nats fans,
12:58wake up here, 800-636-1067, what'd you make of Butera's comments?
13:05Because you and I both had the same reaction where you go, I'm going to put words in your
13:08mouth, but we're both going, I'm a zebra.
13:12I will no longer be having stripes.
13:15Like, the DNA of who they are, this has gotten bad enough that they kind of went, I don't know,
13:21I'll try something else tomorrow.
13:23I get the credit for that.
13:24But, again, to me, this is, I'm going full Doc Rivers here, it's not on Blake.
13:28It's not on Blake.
13:30A lot of people want to make it Blake, it's not on Blake.
13:32It's not on Blake, to me.
13:34Because, again, when he calls down there to that bullpen, there's no good answer.
13:38Nobody.
13:39And as evidenced by the number of guys that they've tried and trotted out there in some
13:43of the leveraged spots, everyone gets a turn.
13:45The guy who just got cut by somebody gets a turn.
13:48DFA Daryl gets a turn.
13:49Everybody does.
13:51What did you make, we can just start, we can just do that.
13:53What did you make of the fact that Blake Butera said, yeah, I'm questioning that.
13:58That, to me, was one of the bigger moments of the season for this group.
14:02Because now there's stakes to it, right?
14:03If they're 40 games below .500, no one gives a damn.
14:05But this is a group that went from two over to now one under at the break.
14:10And you can hear the frustration for him.
14:12We're not going to play his presser from yesterday.
14:15And I think just because of his voice, they didn't maybe have one on Saturday.
14:18But yesterday, they asked him a question.
14:21He goes, yeah, frustrated, disappointed.
14:23And they're like, so is there anything else?
14:25He's like, yeah, we would have loved to have held the lead there late.
14:28And Spencer followed up.
14:29He's like, anything specific?
14:30He's like, no, pretty much just that.
14:33So you can tell from Blake's answers.
14:36He's curt about it.
14:37He wants this team to be able to win.
14:40He feels like he's trying to put them in the best position to succeed.
14:45And this isn't one of those, hey, it's a first-year manager.
14:48I think he's making first-year manager mistakes.
14:50I don't think it is.
14:51I tend to agree with you.
14:52I think the process of what they're trying to do is fine.
14:56It's just not working out.
14:58And at that point, yeah, maybe you could try something a little bit differently.
15:02We can always argue, hey, you should have gone to Rebalta instead of Beater.
15:05Hey, you should have gone to Poulin instead of Crook.
15:07We can argue about some of those things, and I do want to take a look at some of those.
15:10But at some point, they're on the roster for a reason.
15:14You expect it to get outs.
15:16And unfortunately, in this series, there wasn't anybody, once the clock turned to midnight for the Yankees,
15:23that could finish it out.
15:25And their best reliever has been Brad Lord, who's been both a high-leverage guy and a bridge guy
15:31and a multi-inning guy.
15:32Even he had a chance a couple weeks ago, whenever it was against the Phillies,
15:36and gave up a million runs.
15:37I don't know what you do.
15:39But to me, it's more, he basically said in that press conference, we'll play it again when we come back,
15:44800-636-1067.
15:46Yeah, we're going to change the approach.
15:47And the next night, they did.
15:49And I know it didn't work either, but to me, that was pretty telling.
15:51What did you guys make of that?
15:53800-636-1067 is the number.
15:55We will talk.
15:56Your local 53, in the 4 o'clock hour after the Beltway Blitz,
16:00a list came out that doesn't include Jayden Daniels,
16:02and a lot of people are ticked off about it.
16:03We will do that.
16:04But the Nats are a team that's built on analytics.
16:07And their manager said, yeah, we ain't doing that anymore.
16:10And then they didn't the next night.
16:11Pretty big deal.
16:12You're talking.
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